Fight Junkie Home

May 2nd, 2015

Floyd Mayweather V Manny Pacquiao!

By Boxeo

Saturday night, fight fans will finally get to witness the "Fight of the Century" between Floyd "Money" Mayweather, (47-0, 26KOs) and Manny "Pac Man" Pacquiao, (57-5-2, 38KOs) live from the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada.

Mayweather opened the contest as the clear betting favorite but once the fight was signed, sealed and delivered the public quickly smashed the Pacquiao line. The Mayweather backers were happy to let the underdog money come in and have waited until fight week to start driving Mayweather's line back up Currently Mayweather sits about a -215 favorite at most books with Pacquiao resting at +175.

With a fight of this magnitude there are a plethora of different fight props but the standard O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -335 and the under at +275. Mayweather by KO comes in at +700, while Mayweather by decision can cost you -150. Pacquiao by KO hits the mark at +500, and Pacquiao by decision lands at +400. The odds of the fight being declared a draw sit at +1800.

Although this bout between Floyd "Money" Mayweather and Manny "Pac Man" Pacquiao will net each fighter over a hundred million dollars (yes, you read that right) most experts agree this fight is taking place at least 5 years too late.

I won't bother wasting your time getting into all of the drama that unfolded over those 5+ years that caused the fight to never come to fruition. The fighters, their promoters, their camps and the networks have all wasted enough of our time with excuse after excuse as to why the fight never got made.

Regardless of the reasons why the fight never was signed, both fighters continued on their own path during those five years and public anticipation for them to lace them up and get down to business always seemed to be there.

Even after Pacquiao was out right robbed V Timothy Bradley in June of 2012, the public still wanted to see MayPac or PacMay depending on which fighter you are pulling for. It was like the "loss" never occurred. Granted, everyone but the three blind mice seemed to be in agreement that not only did Pacquiao not legitimately lose the fight, it wasn't even close!

Although there was a huge public outcry about the outcome of the fight, as is always the case with boxing, life goes on and fighters fight on and the crooked/inept judges continue to work and officiate the biggest money fights the sport has to offer.

After his "loss" V Timothy Bradley, Pacquiao and his people somehow thought it was a good idea to go after his arch nemesis Juan Manuel Marquez for a fourth time.

Even though Pacquiao had technically defeated Marquez 2 out of the 3 previous times they met (one was a draw) anyone and everyone who was fortunate enough to watch the three previous fights can tell you that Pacquiao never had an easy time defeating Juan Manuel Marquez.

The fourth fight was scheduled to be fought at 147 pounds and many "experts" thought the fight being fought at welterweight was a clear advantage for Pacquiao. Although both men had fought in much lower weight classes in the past, the thinking was Pacquiao was the much harder hitter between the two and had battered men much larger than Marquez.

Of course, we now know that thinking was way off. Marquez shocked the world that December night in 2012, knocking Manny Pacquiao out in the sixth round with a perfectly timed right hand that sent the Filipino superstar crashing to the canvas face first in what was undoubtedly one of the best pure knockout shots I have ever witnessed.

As Pacquiao lay on the ring canvas being attended to by ringside officials, you could hear the air being let out of any hopes of Pacquiao ever facing Mayweather. In fact, there was doubt that he would ever fight again and maybe it was time for him to focus on his political career in his native Philippines.

However, as is often the case with Prizefighters, Pacquiao wouldn't entertain the idea of walking away from the sport and after taking almost a year off from his brutal KO loss, he returned to the ring in November of 2013 V the tough but limited Brandon Rios.

Pacquiao dominated Rios over the course of 12 rounds and walked away with the unanimous decision victory. Although Pacquiao was never in danger, it appeared to most who watched his comeback fight that he didn't retain the same "fire" that he did previous to his highlight reel KO loss to Marquez.

Pacquiao and his team were pleased enough with his Macao, China victory over Rios that they scheduled the rematch with Timothy Bradley for five months later.

Although Bradley had officially beaten Pacquiao in their first fight, the fans and media were none too excited about the rematch. As I mentioned before, nobody outside of the three people officially scoring the fight thought Bradley came close to defeating Pacquiao and Tim Bradley himself took a ton of heat about the outcome, even getting death threats after being declared the winner in the first fight.

For his part Bradley came into the rematch looking for a knockout and nothing less. Regardless if it was the lack of credit he received for being the first man to defeat Pacquiao since 2005 or the brutal right hand KO loss that Pacquiao had recently suffered, Bradley was intent on throwing crazy wild haymakers from start to finish.

And while he did land a solid right hand early in the fight that wobbled Pacquiao, he was never able to duplicate the success that Marquez had and he was soundly outworked and beaten over the course of 12 rounds. With the victory Pacquiao avenged his previous loss to Bradley and there were rumblings once again that maybe a Mayweather fight wasn't out of the question.

Next up for Pac was the unheralded Chris Algeri. Chris was a virtual unknown and large betting underdog in his fight V Ruslan Provodnikov. The Freddie Roach trained Provodnikov is an all action, in your face brawler and on paper it appeared the light hitting Algeri was going to get mauled in brutal fashion.

The fight started off according to the script with Provodnikov pressing forward, hammering Chris Algeri from pillar to post. Chris was dropped two times in the first round and it appeared it was just a matter of time before Provodnikov would end the mismatch via knockout victory.

Chris Algeri had other plans and from the second round on boxed and moved for the rest of the fight, avoiding any real danger from the charging Provodnikov. After 12 rounds Algeri was awarded a split decision upset victory over Provodnikov.

That victory put Algeri on the map and not only did he score the biggest win of his career, he also would go on to score his biggest payday as well when he was selected as Pacquiao next opponent.

The fight was held at 147 pounds (7 pounds north of where Algeri usually fought) and Pacquiao was installed as the large betting favorite in the match. Pacquiao dominated his overmatched foe from start to finish, dropping Chris a total of 6 times of the course of 12 rounds.

For those keeping track, Pac is a perfect 3-0 (0 KO's) since returning from his knockout loss to Juan Manuel Marquez.

During that time where Pacquiao was struggling in his career Floyd Mayweather was still doing what he does best…winning!

His record is still unblemished and outside of a few fights he really hasn't been pushed or tested throughout his long illustrious career.

His most recent victories have come over Victor Ortiz, Robert Guerrero, Saul Alvarez and Marcos Maidana (twice).

Outside of his first fight with Maidana he hasn't really struggled recently. Even the two right hand shots from Shane Mosley back in 2010 only occurred in single round and Mayweather went on to dominate the entire rest of the fight.

I felt the first fight V Marcos Maidana was only close because Mayweather allowed Maidana to close the distance and outwork him. As is usually the case, Mayweather's accuracy was on point, but he sometimes allows his opponents to throw punches without answering back. This type of style can lead to rounds where judges are forced to choose between accuracy and output.

I think that judge Michael Pernick favored the punch output of Maidana in that fight, coming up with the 114-114 score.

In fact, if I am being brutally honest here I think that should be Pacquiao's gameplan. He shouldn't go in there trying to knock Mayweather out, he should go in there looking to outwork Mayweather and win a decision.

I understand that strategy may seem off to some Pacquiao backers; they tend to think of him as an aggressive, power punching machine that never takes a step back. But in reality, Pacquiao was never and will never fight like a true inside fighter like Marcos Maidana or even Miguel Cotto when he faced off with Mayweather.

Pacquiao is an in and out fighter. He likes to leap in with punches and dart back out. This means we won't see him putting his chin on Mayweather's chest and going to town like Marcos did.

Instead, I fully expect Pacquiao to hang around in front of Mayweather and try to jump in with fast flurries of combinations and get the hell out of dodge before Mayweather can fire back his counter shots.

On paper it sounds great, it is the old adage "hit and not get hit" but there is a major problem for Pacquiao in this fight and that is his inability to block the right hand.

Now I know what you are thinking, everyone is harping on the fact that Juan Manuel Marquez knocked Pacquiao out with a right hand from hell. And while one cannot possibly remove that knockout from their consciousness, the fact remains Pacquiao has always had defensive liabilities pre knockout loss and post knockout loss.

I believe in his younger days he was able to get way with his lack of a tight defense due to his sheer aggressiveness and unorthodox style. He often would rush in behind a flurry of punches and then leap to the left or right throwing as he moved. Combine that movement and unpredictability with his speed and power and you got a Filipino sensation that took America by storm.

And even though I believe Freddie Roach has tightened up his overall game, his defense is still an area that I find to be severely lacking.

I affirm today's version of Manny Pacquiao is far more predictable than in years past.

While on the surface it may appear that Pacquiao is doing a lot of unorthodox movements inside the ring, in actuality he is repeating the same moves over and over again, just preforming them with tremendous speed.

That predictability is the major reason that Juan Manuel Marquez was able to time Pacquiao with the right hand shot that knocked him out. Marquez saw the same feinting /punching pattern being repeated and threw his right hand shot just as Pacquiao was jumping in.

Not only can you time Pacquiao when he is coming in but you can also time him when he is jumping out.

Many fighters throughout Pacquiao's fighting career have landed right hand shots on him while he is coming in and going out. Recently though, Timothy Bradley landed a looping right hand in the third round of their second fight that buzzed Pacquiao as he was pulling straight back.

Juan Manuel Marquez dropped Pacquiao early in their fourth fight with a looping right hand shot as he was pulling straight out. Even Chris Algeri was able to land some right hand shots on the chin of Pacquiao.

Truth be told, Pacquiao has a terrible habit of jumping straight in and straight out with his chin straight up in the air.

And while his hand speed is still abnormally fast, I don't think his foot speed is what it once was. I think his declining foot speed (leg issues maybe?) has prevented him from starting his attacking with one set of flurries and following his opponent as they retreat with non-stop punches.

This version of Pacquiao will still start the fast attacking combinations, but once the opponent moves away and creates some distance he tends to halt his attack and reset his feet.

I believe this resetting is actually allowing his opponents to step back just out of range and then fire counter shots. In days past Pacquiao would have not allowed his foes the opportunity to step back out of range and fire because he would have been on them the entire time forcing them to defend his incoming volley of punches.

As we all know, Floyd Mayweather is one of the best counter punchers in the game, especially with the right hand.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Floyd is going to land that right hand shot on Pacquiao. Lesser fighters than Floyd have landed it on Manny throughout his career and there is no chance that a fighter with Mayweather's timing and accuracy is not going to land it as well.

In fact, I think Mayweather can land that right hand shot as a lead! I watched video footage of Pacquiao training to throw the lead left hand when Mayweather jabs, so I wouldn't be surprised if Mayweather picks up on this early in the fight and switches to the right hand as a lead.

Mayweather also likes to switch between a straight right hand punch and a looping overhand right punch. I feel both punches will have tremendous success landing on Manny as that looping right hand is what Bradley and Marquez (first knockdown) caught him with.

Now what happens when Mayweather lands that right hand shot (and trust me he will)? Most people, Mayweather & Pacquiao fans alike, agree that nothing major will happen. They expect Pacquiao to be able to absorb the shots from Mayweather and continue on with his aggressive flurries.

Most experts predict that regardless of which fighter wins its going to go to the scorecards. What makes people so confident that Pacquiao can take flush countershots from Mayweather? Is it that fact they feel Mayweather isn't a hard enough puncher to dent the chin of Pacquiao?

Marquez is not a natural welterweight and his only KO at 147 pounds is over Manny Pacquiao! He never came close to putting Timothy Bradley down when they fought and although he was able to put Mike Alvarado on the floor, he got knocked down himself in that fight and had to win on points.

To be fair, Mayweather has only scored 1 stoppage in his last six fights, and even that KO had controversy surrounding it as he knocked out Victor Ortiz while on a break of sorts.

However, I still proclaim that Mayweather is a harder puncher than people give him credit for. That doesn't mean I think he punches like a prime George Foreman, it just means when he wants to put some mustard on a shot he can do it. More often than not he isn't forced to do anything but what comes naturally and that is dominate his opponents from start to finish.

I also must address the "shoulder roll" issue. Everyone and their brother like to point out the deficiencies that the shoulder roll has V a southpaw. I don't disagree!

Mayweather utilizes the shoulder roll that has him leaning to his right to avoid the traditional right hand, allowing him to roll the opponents right hand and come back with his own right hand counter. Now V a southpaw that "rolling" has him sitting smack dab in the line of sight of the left hand of the southpaw.

I hate to break it to those that are hanging their hats on the shoulder roll being Mayweather's downfall V Pacquiao but as far as I can tell, Mayweather has a brilliant ring IQ and I do not anticipate him using that type of defensive often or even at all.

Mayweather may love the shoulder roll as his go to defense, but he also employs the high guard (earmuff) style of defense and he uses this type of defense very effectively. The high guard is the defensive style I expect him to use V Many Pacquiao.

When Floyd fought the southpaw Robert Guerrero he came out for the first round in the traditional shoulder roll defensive posture and Robert was able to land effectively on him during that round. Mayweather quickly realized this and from round two on he switched up his defensive to the high guard and dominated Guerrero for the rest of the fight.

If Mayweather finds himself in trouble with the shoulder roll you can bet your hard earned dollars he will adjust and switch to another defensive guard.

Another pivotal aspect of the fight that people like to point to is the legs (or lack thereof) of Floyd Mayweather.

It has been suggested (mainly by Freddie Roach) that Mayweather's legs are gone and he can no longer box and move like he once was able to do.

It seems every time we think that Mayweather has lost he wheels, he shows up with some shiny new kicks and boxes circles around guys.

But let's go with the assertion from Roach that Mayweather can no longer move like in fights past.

Even if this were the case (I'm not so certain it is) I don't think Mayweather needs to move like Chris Algeri to win this fight. Granted, if he did move I think Pacquiao would have a hell of a time catching him with effective offense.

Earlier I pointed out the tendency of Pacquiao to allow his opponents to create distance while moving back and that distance and movement does cause him trouble. Timothy Bradley showcased it in their first and second fights. When he moved and got up on his toes, Pacquiao was far less effective with his offense.

Hell, Chris Algeri employed that same type of distance to survive the fight! And that was V a more aggressive PacMan who knew that Chris couldn't possibly hurt him.

But even if Maywether doesn't "run" as some would call it, I still think he can be effective V Pacquiao. I feel like he can stand his ground and look to time Manny as he jumps in and then as he jumps out. By "stand his ground" I mean, stand right in front of Manny Pacquiao!

If he does this, Manny will leap in with punches and it will then be on Floyd to either step back and get ready to fire a counter when Manny stops his flurries, or as Juan Manuel Marquez did, throw just as Pacquiao is starting his combinations.

Mayweather is a hell of a lot faster than Juan Manuel Marquez; if Marquez could reach that chin of Pacquiao before Manny was able to reach him I am certain Maywather can.

If Mayweather wants to step it up a notch he can also fire his shots as Manny pulls straight out. Should Mayweather elect to lead, there is a great chance that Pacquiao will pull straight back to defend the shots.

Marquez dropped Manny in the third round of their fourth fight by using the jab and overhand right. The jab forced Manny to pull straight back and the overhand right landed right on the button. In fact, right before he threw this jab/right hand combo he threw a single jab and Manny pulled straight out away from it. The very next punch Marquez threw was the jab/right hand combo that floored Pacquiao.

Mayweather has used this exact same combination (jab/overhand right) in many of his fights.

I know I am going to sound crazy here, but I honestly think Mayweather with his timing and accurate shots can hurt Pacquiao. For those people out there shaking their heads in disbelief at my moronic statement, the truth is we have no idea if Manny Pacquiao is damaged goods.

Coming back in equal form after a knockout loss like the one he suffered is almost unheard of. In fact, when Timothy Bradley stunned him with that overhand right in the third round of their second fight I started to have serious doubts about just how much tread is left on the tires.

There is no concrete evidence since he has comeback from the KO loss that proves he can take a well-timed shot from a decent puncher and not go spark out cold!

Rios never touched him; Bradley and Algeri are not even big punchers. If anything, the fact that Bradley hurt him should raise a red flag to Pacquiao supporters.

Now you may be yelling at your computer monitor right now "Mayweather isn't a decent puncher"! I cannot really argue the point that he is a killer at welterweight. Ortiz, Canelo and Maidana are all well known to cut a lot of weight to make 147 pounds but on the flip side Guerrero and Cotto are more Mayweather's size.

With that said, is it inconceivable that Mayweather can crack as hard as Timothy Bradley? What about the welterweight version of Marquez? Both of those fighters were able to land and hurt Pacquiao and I stand by my assertion that Mayweather can do the same.

Now, does that mean Mayweather is going to try and blast Manny Pacquiao out? If you listen to the trainers and team of Mayweather that answer would be a resounding "YES"!

They insist that this fight will not be competitive and that Mayweather is too big and accurate for the smaller, defensively challenged future hall of famer.

In their view Mayweather will be able to stand his ground and duplicate the knockout success of Juan Manuel Marquez.

The hundred million dollar question is if Floyd himself will be willing to try and take Manny out.

I think that answer depends entirely on how well Pacquiao is able to avoid the counters coming his way and how aggressively he is attacking Mayweather.

I know a lot of people think the more aggression the better for Pacquiao but there is a really fine line between being effective and reckless.

If Pacquiao can stick to the gameplan of just touching Floyd, and then being defensively sound, he can absolutely win this thing via punch output. It was already proven in the Maidana fight that you don't have to be accurate to win rounds V Mayweather. You simply must throw a hell of a lot of punches for 12 rounds.

I think Oscar De La Hoya nailed it when he said you need a good jab to beat Mayweather. The key there is "good". If you throw a lazy jab you can almost guarantee that Mayweather will counter over it.

Manny uses his jab more as a feint and a set up punch for his left hand. Marquez recognized this and actually spoke after the fight about how Manny always does the same feint before he throws his left hand. Marquez waited for the feint of the jab (two, actually) and then threw the right hand shot heard around the world as Pacquiao jumped in with the left hand.

That outcome and set-up is a perfect example of how not to use the jab V Maywather. You need to stick Mayweather in the face with a long hard jab like Oscar did; otherwise your jab may become a detriment to your attack.

If Manny reverts back to that same foreseeable attacking routine, I have a feeling Mayweather is going to time it just like Marquez did.

Even if Pacquiao has success attacking Mayweather he must ensure he doesn't attack too foolishly or he is going to eat a ton of counter punches and I believe open himself up for another knockout loss.

His defense is simply too poor for me to believe that he can attack and then be dressed down in defense enough to not have his face smacked by counters.

Mayweather is a master counter puncher; I think he is far and away a better counter puncher than Marquez because he throws much tighter combinations that don't leave him wide open to be hit.

I have a feeling once Mayweather figures out that predictable pattern of Manny he is going to start to open up on him, not only with counters but leads as well. Once Mayweather gets in a groove he is extremely hard to take out of it.

The jab and right hand are going to find a home V Pacquiao and if Manny gets overly aggressive you may also find a check hook hitting it's mark as Pac rushes forward (a la Ricky Hatton).

Overall I just feel that Mayweather is the far more talented fighter and while Manny does certainly bring some attributes to the table, in the end this fight is going to come down to the counter punching ability and accuracy of Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao 's inability to defend those counters.

Boxeo: 34.00 Units On Mayweather {-170} & 5.00 Units On Mayweather Wins By KO/TKO/DQ (+700}

Krakrabbit: 34.00 Units On Mayweather {-170}

Grass Hopper: 3.00 Units On Pacquiao {+235}

Doody: 17.00 Units On Mayweather {-170}

D3: 17.00 Units On Mayweather {-170}

---

comments powered by Disqus

---