Fight Junkie
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Fight Junkie Boxing
11/15/2008HBO Predictions
By Boxeo
Taylor opened the contest as the clear betting favorite, but public money poured in on him and his number is now all the way up to -600. Lacy supporters can grab the underdog line at +400.
The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +135, and the over at -155. Taylor by KO comes in at +157, while Taylor by decision will reward you with +142. Lacy by KO hits the mark at +862, and Lacy by decision lands at +813.
After the two very close decision wins against Hopkins, Taylor was thought of as the next big thing in middleweight boxing. His wins over Hopkins were considered the passing of the torch from one great middleweight champion of the world to a future great middleweight champion.
However, Taylor quickly started to lose his superstar label after being involved in back-to-back-to-back uninspiring performances against Winky Wright, Kassim Ouma, and Cory Spinks.
Many experts and fight fans believed he should have been 0-3 in that stretch of bouts instead of 2-0-1. In fact, if you throw in the two Bernard Hopkins bouts, you could make the case that Taylor could easily have been 0-5 from 2005-2007.
All five of those contests went the distance with Taylor being on the receiving end of very questionable decisions. Some folks even went as far as to suggest that regardless of the way the fight unfolded inside the ring, when it went to the scorecards, Taylor just could not seem to lose.
For some reason since the Hopkins fights, Taylor has appeared to regress as a fighter. He is not as aggressive as he once was, and even his highly touted jab does not get used with consistency.
In his first bout with Pavlik, Taylor started fast and went right after him, dropping the “Ghost” in round two. However, Taylor let him off the hook and paid dearly for it when he was knocked out five rounds later.
In the rematch with Pavlik, Taylor reverted back to the reluctant warrior and attempted to box his way to a decision win. He knew without a doubt Pavlik could hurt/stop him so this time around he decided to let the three blind mice at ringside decide his fate.
Although Taylor received nothing but love from the ringside judges when he was an undefeated, rising superstar, things did not turn out exactly how he planned when he was the one that ended up losing on the scorecards to Pavlik in the rematch.
The fact that Taylor regressed back to a boxing style that allowed his opponents to gain ground on him was not shocking at all. In fact, leading up to the Pavlik fight it had become commonplace for him to allow light-hitting boxers to easily bully him around the ring.
Before his first fight with Pavlik, Taylor had been receiving a lot of heat from the media and fight fans about his lackluster performances. I think he entered the first fight with Pavlik seeking to show the critics that he still had that fire burning inside him.
After his first loss to Pavlik, Taylor fired legendary trainer Emmanuel Steward and replaced him with his former trainer Ozell Nelson.
I must assume it was Nelson that implemented the boxing/counter punching style in the Pavlik rematch in the hopes of either catching Pavlik as he came forward, or winning on the cards.
Obviously that tactic did not work, but I have a feeling on Saturday night he will try to get Taylor to fight a similar fight when he faces off against Jeff Lacy.
Just as Taylor was once hailed as the middleweight savior of boxing, Lacy was thought of as the Mike Tyson of the super middleweight division. His short compact frame, combined with his tremendous knockout power was an instant hit with fight fans across the country.
Lacy went 21-0 (1 no contest) with 17 stoppages and picked up the IBF and IBO super middleweight titles along the way before squaring off with Joe Calzaghe for all of the marbles back in 2006.
Although Calzaghe was also undefeated and Lacy was traveling across the pond to face him, “Left Hook” was still considered the odds-on favorite to win the fight.
When the two fighters finally got in the ring it was evident from the start that Lacy was in way over his head. Calzaghe dropped him, stunned him, and humiliated him for 12 grueling rounds.
The beating that Calzaghe administered to Lacy is the stuff that ends careers. Lacy had never been in such a battle before and the beating his mind and body absorbed in that fight was wicked.
Ever since his beating at the hands of Calzaghe back in 2006, Lacy has not looked to be the same fighter he once was.
Granted he is 3-0 since the Calzaghe beating, defeating Vitali Tsypko, Peter Manfredo, and Epifanio Mendoza. However, he struggled with each and every one of those fighters and was almost knocked out cold in his last fight against Epifanio Mendoza.
Lacy claims some of the lackluster wins inside the ring were a result of his torn rotator cuff, but admits in his last fight against Epifanio Mendoza his shoulder was 100%.
Even at this stage of the game Taylor is head and shoulders above Lacy’s recent competition. If you just look at their recent competition and how they have recently performed, this fight is a complete mismatch.
Lacy supporters may be pointing to the power of Lacy as his saving grace and while it’s true he does have an impressive knockout percentage, his last stoppage win came back in 2005 against the shopworn Scott Pemberton.
For me, the only question I have is will Taylor put his foot on the gas and get Lacy out of there? It’s no secret that Jeff Lacy and Jermain Taylor are good friends. Taylor and Spinks were also good friends and we know how that fight played out (can you say stinker.)
In my opinion Taylor will resort to his punch and hold style (did Hopkins teach him that?) in an attempt to stop the aggression of Lacy. Holding always causes fighters trouble, and I think Lacy will have difficulty being held every time he attempts to lay some leather on JT.
Even if Taylor needs to implement this type of technique to throw Lacy off of his game plan he only need execute it for five rounds. Lacy is a quick starter and usually gasses after five rounds. During the second half of the bout his speed diminishes and he starts to throw one haymaker at a time. Say what you will about Taylor, but he does bring the better boxing skills and movement to the dance.
So there you have it. I feel Lacy’s best opportunity for a victory must come in the first half of the fight. Should it go longer then that I suspect the tide will dramatically shift in favor of Taylor as Lacy looks for one homerun punch to pull him out of the deficit that he will be in on the judge’s scorecards.
Even if Taylor does not head into this fight looking for the stoppage (I think he is going to try and do just enough to get the win) there is a slight chance that Lacy still gets stopped due to swelling.
His face has not been holding up well lately and the jab alone could do serious damage to his eyes. If Lacy is taking a pounding and his face is beginning to swell and fall apart, maybe, just maybe, the ref jumps in and stops the fight.
With that said, I just don’t like that lack of killer instinct from Taylor. We already touched on Lacy going the distance in his last few fights, but Taylor has not been a knockout machine himself, scoring his last stoppage victory all the way back in 2005!
I think if Lacy’s face does not fall apart there is a good chance this one sees the judge’s scorecards.
Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Taylor By Decision {+142}
Krakrabbit: 2.00 Units On Taylor By Decision {+142}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Won’t Go 10.5 Rounds {+145} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Lacy {+400}
D3: 1.00 Units On Lacy {+400}
Fight Junkie Boxing
HBO PPV Predictions
By Boxeo
When the line first dropped, Calzaghe was installed as the clear betting favorite, but every since Bernard Hopkins’ upset win over Kelly Pavlik, public money has slowly been coming in on Jones and his number is now down to +230 at most books. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +265 and the over at -325.
If you like Calzaghe by stoppage you will get +271, while Calzaghe by decision costs you -110 .You can snag Jones by stoppage at +672, and the former heavyweight champion by decision will net you +450. The odds the fight is declared a draw land at +2400.
As you can plainly see by the posted odds, Calzaghe is expected to beat Jones in a distance fight on the judge’s scorecards.
The southpaw light heavyweight champion has never lost a professional bout, and is currently riding a high after soundly defeating the highly respected Mikkel Kessler last year and most recently eeking out a close split decision win over future hall of famer Bernard Hopkins.
For his part, Jones comes into his fight against Calzaghe riding a three fight win streak over Prince Badi Ajamu, Anthony Hanshaw, and most recently a unanimous decision win over former world champion Felix “Tito” Trinidad.
It’s no secret that Roy Jones Jr. brings the better resume to the dance. A quick glance at the former pound-4-pound king’s record and you will find names like Bernard Hopkins, Thomas Tate, James Toney, Mike McCallum, Montell Griffin, Virgil Hill, Reggie Johnson, John Ruiz, Glen Johnson, Antonio Tarver, and Felix Trinidad.
After forty-five professional fights, the most familiar names on Joe Calzaghe’s resume are Jeff Lacy, Mikkel Kessler and Bernard Hopkins.
With such a large gap in quality of opposition faced, one might be inclined to question the oddsmaker’s sanity in making Jones a 3-1 underdog in this fight.
However, setting a line has more to do with wins and losses, and I believe the oddsmaker’s see serious flaws in the game of Jones that they feel Calzaghe can exploit.
Although we outlined the fact that Roy Jones has clearly faced the better opposition throughout his hall of fame career, one must not forget that Jones is far from the fighter of yesteryear. As his legs begin to show the signs of a long career, we find Roy Jones Jr. spending large portions of his fights with his back to the ring ropes.
Even though it’s true that a prime Jones had a tendency to lie against the ring ropes, inviting his opponents to hammer him to the head and body. In his younger days, his reflexes were so quick he would just toy with his foe until he spotted the tiniest of openings before blistering off highlight reel combinations that left the crowd, as well as his opponents in awe.
That Roy Jones only exists in microscopic spots during the course of his fights. Not only does Jones use his legs sparingly, his still wicked fast hands are also kept under lock and key for most of the three-minute rounds.
In stark contrast Joe Calzaghe is a windmill inside the ring. He punches in bunches and forces his opponents to alter their offensive game plan in an attempt to defend the volley of punches heading their way.
Although Calzaghe can punch non-stop for an entire fight, he has widely been criticized for “slapping” with his shots. I say if “Slappy” Joe he has been able to score thirty-two stoppage wins by slapping his opponents to death, I pray for Jones sake he does not decide to close his glove and punch with authority!
I feel Jones’ tendency to retreat in a straight line, as he backs into the ring ropes, could be a huge advantage for Joe Calzaghe.
As I pointed out earlier, when his opponents attack him Jones has always had the habit of moving straight back into the ring ropes and putting his earmuffs on. This allows his opponents to pummel him from head to toe while he covers up and waits to counterpunch.
The problem with implementing this defensive technique against Calzaghe is the fact that Joe can stay right there on the ropes punching him in the head and body for the entire round! Unless Jones forces Calzaghe to back away, he simply will not stop punching until the bell rings to end the round or Jones is laid out cold on the mat.
Another danger the current version of Roy Jones Jr. faces is his slowed reflexes. Once upon a time RJJ practically went his entire career without ever being touched by a single significant punch.
In fact, if I recall correctly, he often boasted about not being able to relate to the adversity that other fighters often have to go through when they are cut, hurt, or knocked down during a fight.
Of course, that all changed when he faced off with Antonio Tarver for the first time way back in 2003. Notice I point out the first fight as the significant point in Jones’ career where he was forced to realize he was less than superhuman.
Despite the fact that Jones was able to come away with a very close majority decision win against Tarver, it was the first time in his whole career he was forced to dig down deep and fight through adversity.
In all of his prior bouts he toyed with his opponents. Even in his fight against Lou De Valle, when he suffered the first knockdown of his career, I never got the sense that Jones was in danger of losing the fight.
A lot of people point to the first Griffin fight as the first signs that Jones was beginning to decline, but even in that fight I never thought the scrap was slipping away from him. In each of those fights, you could always see that he clearly understood his surroundings.
He was notorious for allowing his rivals limited success before quickly snatching it back. I think he was well on his way to doing that very thing to Montell before the late hit and subsequent disqualification.
However, the Tarver bout was something Jones had never experienced as a pro. He was forced to battle fatigue, facial swelling, and being hit flush numerous times over the course of the entire fight.
Another very subtle change took place in that bout for Jones…he was forced to fight! I am not talking about boxing and counterpunching; I am talking about standing your ground and making a stand. As Jones has aged, his body has mandated that he sit down on his punches and take risks.
Taking risks was never part of the original game plan for Jones. In fact, throughout his career he was criticized for always fighting the “safe” opponents and fighting a safety first style.
At this stage of the game, Jones is physically unable to throw rapid-fire combination shots for a full three minutes of every single round. He no longer possesses the ability to use his legs and move out of harms way as his adversary advances.
Those two factors have contributed to him adapting a more “crowd friendly” style. By crowd friendly I mean he gets hit more! In essence, he has become more of a stationary target as he has matured.
I think the inability to fight how he has for the better part of his entire career, has forced Jones to either risk being knocked out cold, or go into a defensive shell.
A classic example of Jones going into a defensive shell was his ninth round knockout loss to Glenn Johnson. Not only did Jones get knocked out once again by a single punch (Jones was stopped in the second round in the Tarver rematch) he was losing the fight up until that point.
Johnson set the tone of the bout in the very first round of the fight. He jumped right on Jones, bullied him into the ring ropes and threw punches until the bell sounded to end the round.
For his part Jones could do nothing but cover up and potshot whenever he could muster up the energy and courage to let his hands go. Throughout the entire fight Jones’ punch output was non-existent, and when he did fire off a combination, Johnson would stand his ground and jump right back on him.
As the rounds wore on Jones went deeper and deeper into his defensive shell, until his reflexes betrayed him and he was caught with a jab-right hand shot that knocked him out cold for the second straight fight.
In the brief footage I have been able to view on Roy’s preparation for Calzaghe, it appears Jones is focusing more on conditioning his body for a faster pace inside the ring. This would be an extremely smart move on his part because we already know Calzaghe has great stamina and workrate.
Speaking of workrate, Calzaghe recently stated on the HBO behind the scenes series 24/7 that he needs to make his punches count more in this fight with Jones and cannot pity pat his way through the bout like he did against Hopkins.
I think lowering his punch output in the hopes of hurting or stopping Jones would be a grave mistake on the part of Calzaghe and could end up costing him his undefeated record.
His biggest assets throughout his career have been his above average hand speed and his tireless workrate. He will not possess the faster hands when he meets Jones Jr., but he can still bring the better workrate to the dance if he chooses.
If fight night comes and Joe Calzaghe honestly alters his offensive game plan against Jones in an attempt to land the harder, cleaner blows, I think he will lose the fight!
Although Jones is no longer invincible, he still has incredible hand speed and is second to none when it comes to potshotting an opponent.
Should Calzaghe decide to sit down on his punches more it will not only allow Jones to rest and counterpunch with great accuracy, but because Calzaghe is a southpaw fighter it will also allow Jones the opportunity to land one of the best punches in his arsenal… the lead right hand!
Jones throws this punch better then most fighters on the planet and Hopkins recently showed that Calzaghe can be touched with that punched on a regular basis and even dropped if the shot is timed right.
Hopkins was able to land the right hand on Calzaghe even though Joe was throwing a ton of punches every round. Imagine what the much quicker Roy Jones Jr. would be able to land on Calzaghe if Joe decides to pick his shot carefully before attacking.
We all know the punch that you don’t see hurts you the most. I feel Jones brings enough speed and punching power to hurt and even drop Calzaghe, but finishing him off is an entirely different matter.
Even in his prime Jones was never considered a “killer” inside the ring. Most of his stoppages have come from long drawn out beatdowns that slowly broke down his overmatched opponents.
As he has aged his lack of finishing skills have deteriorated even further. If you look back at his last three fights you will see a total of 36 rounds of boxing and three decision wins for the former pound-4-pound king.
It is also important to point out that Jones was not facing the cream of the crop in those fights. In his prime I am certain Badi Ajamu and Anthony Hanshaw would not have made it the distance with him. In fact, he was unable or unwilling to knockout Felix “Tito” Trinidad who came out of a two-year retirement and moved all the way up to 170-pound catch weight to face him.
Granted, he was able to have his way with all three fighters either hurting them or knocking them down, but he still could not pull the trigger enough to get them out of there.
I think Jones would need to throw a large amount of punches and land at an incredible accuracy rate to stop Calzaghe. Even though I can envision the accuracy numbers for Jones being high, I think it is his punch output that could hinder him a bit.
For his part Calzaghe carries solid power into the ring but when he has stepped up the competition he has not scored the stoppages that he did earlier in his career.
The three names we pointed out earlier that represent the most recognized fighters on his resume (Jeff Lacy, Mikkel Kessler and Bernard Hopkins) were all distance fights with Joe getting the nod by unanimous decision twice and the close split decision win over Hopkins.
With two of his four losses coming by knockout (one punch KO’s at that) I think it’s safe to say that Roy Jones Jr. chin is not made of granite. With that said, I am still only mildly worried about Calzaghe landing enough power shots to really hurt Jones. After all, Calzaghe is thought of as a volume puncher, not a one-punch knockout artist.
Now, if Calzaghe stays true to form and throws punches in bunches I have a feeling the three blind mice at ringside will be forced to choose between the volume of punches from Calzaghe and the harder, more accurate shots from Jones.
If that is the case, I would not be surprised to hear both camps crying that they won the fight on Saturday. Team Calzaghe will point to the overwhelming punches thrown numbers, and team Jones will point to the punches landed numbers.
In the end I see Roy Jones Jr. scoring an “upset” split decision victory over Joe Calzaghe that sets up a rematch 6-8 months later in the heart of Wales!
Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Jones {+300} (Vegas Odds) & 6.00 Units On Jones Jr. By Decision {+450}
Krakrabbit: 2.00 Units On Jones By Decision {+450}
Grass Hopper: 4.00 Units On Jones {+300} (Vegas Odds) & 1.00 Units On Jones By KO {+750} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 2.00 Units On Jones {+300} (Vegas Odds)
D3: 1.00 Units On Jones {+300} (Vegas Odds)
Fight Junkie Boxing
HBO PPV Predictions
By Boxeo
Pavlik opened as the clear betting favorite in the fight, but public money continued to flow in on him, knocking his number up to -440. Hopkins supporters can grab the underdog line at +350. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +195 and the over at -235.
Pavlik by KO comes in at +273, while the middleweight champion by decision will cost you -110. Hopkins by KO hits the mark at +1186, and Hopkins by decision lands at +600.
Although there is a giant gap in the resume of the two boxers, it is widely believed that Hopkins is on his way out of the sport while Pavlik is just hitting his fighting stride.
Although Hopkins has faced and beaten Antonio Tarver and Winky Wright since losing his rematch to Jermain Taylor back in 2005, his overall record for his past five fights sits at a dismal 2-3 with zero stoppages.
In all of those five fights Hopkins showed flashes of being able to command the ring like the Bernard of old, but his inability to pull the trigger and throw more then one punch at a time is in large part the reason he has a losing record over the last three years.
Speaking of his last fight fights, those five bouts we touched on have all taken place in a span of three years!
Hopkins fought just twice in 2005, once in 2006, and one single time in 2007. His fight with Pavlik will make only his second fight of 2008.
I believe the oddsmakers opening a fighting legend like Bernard Hopkins as such a sizable underdog in this fight is a direct result of his inability to throw punches!
If you listen to the Hopkins supporters out there all you hear is how he has defined the odds and found the fountain of youth. They claim the forty-three year old boxes like an up and coming twenty-seven year old.
Even though it is certainly evident that Hopkins is fighting at a much higher level than any other forty-three year old, the claims of his dominance in the ring are a bit far fetched.
The very first thing you need to look at is his last two wins. Tarver, a former world champion, had to lose a ton of weight before their 2006 bout and fought a slow, lethargic fight that allowed Hopkins to throw whenever he wanted and rest whenever he felt the need.
Now, some people will simply shrug off my analysis of the Tarver bout as crying over spilled milk (I actually picked Hopkins for the upset) but I feel if you take a peek back at Tarver’s last two fights against Woods and Dawson you will see Tarver is a shell of his former self and has his own fair share of trouble pulling the trigger.
In Hopkins’ other win over Winky Wright, he was facing a fighter that moved up in weight (hey, isn’t Kelly Pavlik moving up in weight?) and had an extremely defensive style of fighting. Once again, the style of Wright allowed Hopkins to dictate the pace and throw when he wanted and rest whenever he felt the need.
Even his decision loss at the hands of Joe Calzaghe was against a 36-year old fighter who was making the leap up in weight from the super middleweight division to the light heavyweight limit of 175-pounds.
I believe Hopkins has been able to compete at a higher level than most anticipated because he has recently faced fighters (Wright & Tarver) with styles that complimented his own.
If you go back and look at the two Taylor fights and his recent loss to Calzaghe, you will find that both Taylor and Calzaghe were much more active than Hopkins and try as he might, the old lion could not muster up the energy to fight three minutes of every single round.
Although I don’t believe Pavlik is as active inside the ring as Calzaghe, he certainly can match the activity level of a Jermain Taylor. I believe Pavlik’s activity level combined with his punching power will be more then enough to take Hopkins out of his comfort zone.
In my opinion the only chance Hopkins has to win this fight is by knockout (providing the three blind mice at ringside are on the level.) His five punches thrown per round (ok, maybe I am exaggerating just a bit) would not appear to be active enough in this fight to get him the nod if the fight goes to the cards.
In fact, I venture to guess that even if Hopkins were to win by knockout it would need to be of the one-punch variety. The reason I think a single shot KO is more achievable for Hopkins is because even if he were able to hurt or drop Pavlik I am not sure he has enough juice in the tank to finish the job!
Pavlik showed against Taylor in their first fight that he has great recuperative powers and I find it extremely difficulty to envision Hopkins putting together combination shots regardless of his opponent’s condition.
The one area of this fight that does trouble me a bit is the weight. Pavlik is a beast at 160-pounds but looked mediocre when he fought Taylor in the rematch at a special catch weight of 166-pounds. Now he heads even further north to 170-pounds to face the crafty vet Hopkins.
Pavlik claims that he was unable to be as effective as he would have liked against Taylor in the second fight because Jermain fought a more defensive style of fighting. If he thought Taylor fought defensively wait until he faces Hopkins!
The truth is, even the die hard “Ghost” supporters have to wonder if he will carry that tremendous punching power with him all the way up to 170-pounds.
Even if Pavlik should somehow bring his thunder with him to 170, there is still a real and present danger for him in this fight. The danger zone for the undefeated fighter from Ohio lies in any type of inside warfare with the cagey old vet.
Hopkins has often been criticized for being a “dirty” fighter. He is not afraid to hit his opponents low, come in with his head, and hold and maul his foe whenever they get close.
This “style” of fighting makes for horribly ugly bouts, but Hopkins has found a way to master this rough and tough inside game.
At his advanced fighting age he needs every advantage he can get, and his holding and hitting on the inside not only gives him the advantage of busting up the face of his opponents (he often can cause cuts by being rough on the inside) it allows him to control the punch output of his opponents.
If Pavlik falls into this trap set by Hopkins, he will be in for a very long night.
I always hate fights where I have a strong feeling the bout might head to the scorecards. I don’t like when the three blind mice get involved, and would prefer a legit stoppage win to a decision win any day.
However, the “give” that Hopkins displayed in the late rounds against Joe Calzaghe makes me wonder if the old timer has finally reached his limits. The “low blow” that was called late in that fight gave Hopkins a ton of time to rest and appeared on the surface to be a life saver for Hopkins.
He was fading badly down the stretch and Calzaghe was continuing to windmill his punches non-stop. Hopkins clearly could not keep up with the pace and for a minute there, the possibility of Hopkins finally being stopped inside the distance crept into my mind.
If the sand in Hopkins’ hourglass has indeed finally run out, I can visualize a badly fatigued Hopkins being stopped in the very late stages of the fight.
While the above scenario is technically possible, I still feel Hopkins craftiness and the catch weight of 170-pounds could severely hinder Pavlik’s ability to become the first fighter to stop Bernard Hopkins.
Boxeo: 2.20 Units Pavlik By Decision {-110}
Krakrabbit: .25 Units On Pavlik By KO Rounds 7-9 {+1012} & .25 Units On Pavlik By KO Rounds 10-12 {+1029}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Won’t Go 11.5 {+200}
Doody: 1.10 Units On Pavlik By Decision {-110}
D3: 1.10 Units On Pavlik By Decision {-110}
Fight Junkie Boxing
Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo
Dawson opened the contest as the clear favorite in the bout and currently rests at –260. Tarver supporters can grab +220 for their money. The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -220 and the under landing at +180.
Dawson by KO will net you +351, while Dawson by decision lands at +102. Tarver by KO hits the mark at +542, and Tarver by decision lands at +538. The odds the fight will be declared a draw are +2750.
It is clear from the opening line that oddsmakers are expecting a decision win for Dawson.
Dawson is the younger, faster, more skilled fighter in the match-up and will look to employ his quicker hand speed and better footwork to outwork Tarver over the course of the fight.
Although Tarver is coming off a lopsided decision win over Clinton Woods six months ago, I just don’t see anyway the thirty-nine year old Tarver will be able to keep up with his younger foe enough to win on the scorecards.
The “Magic Man’s” best opportunity to score the upset victory will lie in his two fists and the chin of Dawson.
Dawson has been put on the seat of his pants before, and Tarver has shown in the past he possesses enough dynamite in his gloves to get his opponents out of there.
The game plans are very simple in this fight. Tarver will need a knockout to win and Dawson has the ability to box the ears of off his ageing opponent. I would be surprised if the outcome ended up being anything other then Tarver by knockout or Dawson by decision.
Although Tarver is clearly the more established name in this match-up, recently he has appeared to be rapidly slowing down inside the ring.
Granted, he has faced the cream of the crop in Roy Jones jr., Glen Johnson, and Bernard Hopkins, but it is the lack of energy displayed inside the ring that have many experts calling the thirty-nine year old a shot fighter.
Even though Tarver supporters will likely point to the beating of Clinton Woods as proof that a motivated Antonio Tarver is still a dangerous light heavyweight fighter, I felt that performance was extremely lackluster.
On the night he squared off against Woods, he literally had a punching bag in front of him and still showed a tremendous lack of energy and appeared to be just going through the motions.
He was allowed to nail Woods with anything and everything he threw without ever worrying about any kind of an offensive assault from his foe. Yet, he still could only muster up enough energy to do so in short bursts.
It is important to remember that in his bout with Woods he was allowed to fight at his own pace. He punched when he wanted and rested when he wanted. Even when Tarver was considered to be the best in the division he was never a windmill when it came to punch output.
I can assure you that Dawson is going to set a pace inside that ring that Tarver will not be able to match.
Dawson will clearly have the advantage in work rate and if the bout goes to the scorecards one would expect if the fight were on the level (who knows what will happen when the three blind mice get involved) Dawson would have a clear advantage due to his higher punch output.
The only shot Tarver has to win this fight is to land his booming left hand (can anyone say Roy Jones Jr.) on the chin of Chad Dawson and put him to sleep.
With the way Dawson has reacted to punches in the past a one-punch knockout victory for Tarver is not out of the question. The thing that is in question is how long Tarver will possess enough energy to be able to land that shot and change the course of the fight.
Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Dawson By Decision {+120} (Vegas Odds)
Krakrabbit: 2.00 Units On Dawson By Decision {+120} (Vegas Odds)
Grass Hopper: 2.50 Units On Under 12 Full Rounds {+200} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Tarver {+220}
D3: 1.00 Units On Dawson By Decision {+120} (Vegas Odds)
Fight Junkie Boxing
Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo
The fight opened at almost dead even odds, but since then the line on Klitschko has steadily moved higher and higher, currently resting at the -180 mark. Peter supporters can grab the underdog cash at +155. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +175 and the over at -215.
Klitschko by KO comes in at +175, while Klitschko by decision will reward you with +329. Peter by KO hits the mark at +318, and Peter by decision lands at +823. The odds the fight is declared a draw land at +3000.
On Saturday Peter will have a second opportunity at defeating a Klitschko, something he failed to do back in 2005 when he faced Wladimir Klitschko.
Heading into the bout with Wladimir most experts predicted a stoppage win for the stout heavyweight. It is no secret that Wladimir has serious trouble in the chin and stamina departments, and with the heavy hands of Peter it appeared it would only be a matter of time before he landed something big to the chin of Wladimir and knocked him out.
Peter was able to land on the suspect chin of Klitschko and was even capable of knocking him down multiple times, but when he was not picking himself up off the canvas Wladimir controlled the fight from the outside, cracking peter with thunderous right hands as he marched forward.
In the end the boxing skills of Wladimir won out over the power punches of Peter and Klitschko went on to hand Peter his first professional defeat by unanimous decision.
Since that fight with Wladimir Klitschko, Peter has gone 6-0 with 2 knockout victories.
Although it is an understatement to say Peter has been more active (Vitali Klitschko has been retired from the sport for nearly four years!) it is important to note that he has not looked great in his last two fights.
First there was the unimpressive decision win over Jameel McCline, in a bout where he was put on the seat of his pants three separate times, and most recently a sixth round stoppage of Oleg “Dead Man Walking” Maskaev.
The three knockdowns suffered at the hands of the light hitting McCline raised serious questions about the perceived invincibility of Peter. Although he was on the losing end of a decision to Wladimir Klitschko, he did drop him three times over the course of the twelve round affair. Peter had no such luck against McCline, and was forced to outwork him over the twelve round distance.
Peter had a much easier time in his stoppage victory over Maskaev then in his bout against McCline, but the fact remains he still had rough patches against a limited boxer that was coming off a fifteen-month layoff.
Heading into Saturday’s showdown, there are no doubt a lot of questions surrounding both fighters. Not only has Klitschko been inactive for four years, but also his long history of suffering injuries inside and outside of the ring cannot be looked upon as a positive factor in the fight.
His four-year retirement was forced upon him by his body constantly breaking down during training camp, causing multiple postponements of bouts due to lower back and knee troubles.
In fact, one of his two losses came in a bout he was winning against Chris Byrd but had to retire in the corner due to a shoulder injury suffered during the fight.
His other defeat at the hands of Lennox Lewis came about due to a tremendous gash over his eye that forced the ringside physician to call a halt to the slugfest.
With that said, Peter is not without his own critics. The knock on Samuel is that he is a slow, defenseless, one punch slugger who tires after five rounds. A lot of his stamina issues are rumored to be because of his lack of dedication in the gym.
In fact, it is believed that Peter routinely comes into his training camp weighing close to 300 pounds! If that number is correct, he was able to drop forty-seven pounds in camp, weighing in at 253 pounds for this WBC title bout.
The argument for a Klitschko win is a simple one. If the soft punching McCline can drop Peter three times, the more powerful Klitschko can put him down and out.
You could also argue that Klitschko is the more mobile of the two and could conceivable outbox Peter and win on the scorecards.
I think Klitschko has a legit punchers chance to catch Peter and take him out. Of course, Peter will probably be looking to do the same and the first few rounds could end up being pure dynamite.
Although Klitschko has technically been stopped in both of his losses, I don’t feel he has a bad set of whiskers at all. His chin is certainly leaps and bounds above his brother Wladimir’s, and he was able to last the distance with Peter.
If anyone were to get stopped with one single shot I feel it would be Peter who hits the deck and stays there.
He did the drunken dance against Wladimir in the final round of their fight and did not recover well at all from the shots that McCline hit him with. In truth, if McCline had not gassed he probably would have stopped Peter.
Oleg “Dead Man Walking” was also able to shake him before Peter found his china chin and took him out.
Although Peter’s defense has always been very suspect, before his fight with Wladimir it was widely considered that Peter had an excellent chin. Maybe taking round after round of punishing hooks and right hands from Klitschko dented the beard of Peter more then we realized at the time?
Another important factor to look at in this fight is the pure size advantage that Klitschko holds over Peter. Klitschko stands roughly 6’7” tall and sports an impressive 80” reach. Peter on the other hand stands 6’0” tall and brings a 77” reach into the bout.
The size differential is important because Peter struggled with Wladimir (6’6”) and McCline (6’6”) both of whom are comparable in height and reach to Vitali.
After such a long layoff and numerous injuries there is simply no way to determine what Vitali Klitschko will bring to the ring on Saturday night.
Even though it has been rumored that during his four-year retirement from boxing Vitali never exceeded ten pounds over his fighting weight (he weighed-in at 247 for this fight) anyone backing Klitschko after such a long layoff is either doing so on blind faith or fading Peter.
I don’t bet blindly, so it’s evident my play on Klitschko is a fade against Sam Peter.
Boxeo: 5.00 Units On Klitschko By KO {+175}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Peter By KO {+318} & 1.00 Units On Klitschko By Decision {+329}
Grass Hopper: 5.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+175}
Doody: 1.50 Units On Klitschko {-150}
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+175}
Fight Junkie Boxing
HBO Predictions
By Boxeo
Mosley Opened about a 6-1 favorite over Mayorga but the public quickly jumped on that line, skyrocketing Mosley to a –900 favorite to defeat “El Matador” Saturday night. Mayorga gets the underdog cash at +600. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over landing at -135 and the under coming in at +155.
Mosley by KO comes in at -103, while Mosley by decision will get you +188. Mayorga by KO hits the mark at +983, and Mayorga by decision lands at +1457. The odds the fight is declared a draw currently rest at +4000.
Although both boxers have fought at 154 in the past, I do not feel it is the optimum weight for either fighter.
Mosley was simply a beast at the lower weights, and even after moving up to 147 pounds was still considered one of the best fighters in the world.
“Sugar” made the leap to 154 back in 2003, after losing back-to-back fights against Vernon Forrest at welterweight.
From 2002-2004 Shane Mosley went 1-4 with 1 no-contest. Not exactly a great way to launch your name back into the pound-for-pound limelight. Mosley was able to rebound from those disastrous two years, beating David Estrada, Jose Luis Cruz, Fernando Vargas, and Luis Collazo.
Up until his first victory over Vargas, Mosley was considered damaged goods. He was fighting at a weight (154) that did not suit his style, and he was looking average against mediocre competition. After he stopped Vargas in the tenth round due to a Rahman like swelling over Vargas’ eye, people sat up and started to take a closer look at “Sugar.”
However, since the bout was competitive on the scorecards leading up to the stoppage, Vargas and fight fans alike wanted to see a rematch between the two. Mosley quickly agreed and the two combatants raged war just five months later.
This time around it was all Shane Mosley. He battered Vargas for five rounds before starching the former champion with a single left hook in round number six.
After his destruction of Vargas there was talk of a Mayweather showdown, but for whatever reason (each side implies the other is ducking) the fight never came off. Instead of fighting Mayweather, Mosley wisely made the move back down to 147 and squared off with the tough Luis Collazo.
Collazo made a name for himself in a loss to Ricky Hatton. It was Hatton’s first attempt at the 147-pound weight class and Collazo gave him everything he could handle and more in their twelve round affair.
Although Collazo did not come away with the win, he was able to showcase his world-class speed and boxing skills to millions of people around the world. I guess Shane Mosley was one of those people watching because Collazo quickly got the call for Mosley’s return to welterweight.
Heading into his bout with Collazo many experts considered the fight to be a real test for the ageing former world champion. Mosley proved the critics wrong, putting on a masterful performance, dominating Collazo from start to finish.
After such a tremendous performance against a quality welterweight like Collazo people starting whispering that maybe Shane had turned back the clock and was once again going to be a force to reckon with at welterweight.
Mosley would waste no time in testing himself against of the best in the division, Miguel Cotto.
So in November of last year Mosley and Cotto waged war for twelve competitive rounds with Mosley coming out on the short end of a unanimous decision.
Although Mosley lost the fight on the judge’s scorecards (a lot of boxing fans had him winning) there is no doubt that he showed the world he could compete with the best the welterweight division had to offer.
Now, for some reason, he will take on Ricardo Mayorga at 154 pounds!
My only guess on why Shane would move back up to 154 after two magnificent performances at 147 is because Mayorga could not get back down to the welterweight limit of 147 pounds.
Mayorga’s most recent bout was his twelve round majority decision victory of Fernando Vargas back in November of 2007. For that fight Mayorga jumped all the way from 154 pounds to 166 pounds to challenge Vargas at a “special” catch weight.
The catch weight was a condition of Vargas if Mayorga wanted the fight. Even though Mayorga claimed he would weigh-in at 156 pounds for his bout with Vargas, when it was time to put down the turkey leg and hit the scales, Mayorga came in at 164 pounds, the exact same weight of Vargas!
The fact that Mayorga came into that bout weighing the exact same as Vargas had a bit of irony to it since Mayorga routinely called Vargas “fatty” during the promotion of the fight.
When the two fighters entered the ring it was nothing but a slow, plodding affair with both guys huffing and puffing for most of the fight. Mayorga came away with the close win on the cards, but the decision victory over the severely faded Fernando Vargas did little to enhance his reputation.
Although you can give Mayorga a pass for his average performance against Vargas at 166 pounds, there is no secret he did most of his quality work at 147 pounds. Since moving up to 154 and beyond, his power has drastically reduced inside the ring and he has taken his own fair share of beatings.
He was brutally knocked out in eight rounds by Felix Trinidad in Trinidad’s first fight back from a lofty two-year retirement, and Oscar De La Hoya flattened him in six rounds, knocking him down three times in the process.
While I certainly was not shocked that Trinidad was able to put Mayorga down and out, I was surprised at how easily Mayorga folded against Oscar De La Hoya. The brutal beat down at the hands of De La Hoya was undoubtedly an eye-opening event.
Oscar is certainly not known for his punching power at the higher weights, and when he hit Mayorga he dropped him like a rock. I honestly think the beating at the hands of “Tito” took something out of Mayorga and it wouldn’t be the first time Tito ruined a career (see David Reid and Fernando Vargas.)
With Mayorga’s wild style, there is a great possibility that Mosley will land at will as Mayorga plows forward. Even at 154 pounds, the speed advantage that Mosley will bring into the ring is incredible. He should easily be able to land three and four punch combinations and then get out of harms way.
Another significant tool at Mosley disposal is his wicked body punching. In his lighter days he was a vicious body puncher, but since he has bounced around in different weight classes he has not been as dedicated to the body as he was when he was younger.
The one spot Mayorga supporters may point to as a significant advantage that “El Matador” holds over Mosley is in the power department. Sadly, they would be mistaken if they feel Mayorga holds the edge in knockout power.
Since his recent move up to 154 and beyond, Mayorga has scored zero stoppages! You have to go way back to the year 2000 to find a fight where he weighed 154 or more and scored a stoppage win.
Shane is a very rugged and powerful fighter. I don’t believe it will be as easy as Mayorga supports think for him to get inside and just rough Mosley up without taking a huge toll on his own body.
While I don’t think the greatest strategy for Mosley to incorporate would be to stand and trade with Mayorga, if he chooses his spots wisely, he can get some serious work done on the inside and then move back outside to catch Mayorga as he marches forward.
Remember… there was a point and time in Shane Mosley’s career when he was considered one of the best, if not the best fighter in the world. He was lightning quick, possessed a wicked body attack, and punched with tremendous force.
I have a feeling Saturday night’s bout against Mayorga is going to be a brutal one-sided event with Mayorga succumbing to the speed and power of ‘Sugar” Shane before the final bell.
Boxeo Bets: 4.12 Units On Mosley By KO {-103}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Mosley By Decision {+188}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.00 Units On Mosley By Decision {+188}
D3: 1.00 Units On Mayorga {+600}
Fight Junkie Boxing
9/27/2008HBO Predictions
By Boxeo
Berto opened as a sizable favorite in the bout and currently sits at -1000. Forbes supporters can snatch the plus money + 650. The over/under for the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the over costing you -210, while the under comes in at +175.
Berto by KO comes in at +169, while Berto by decision will run you -134. Forbes by KO hits the mark at +1734, and Forbes by decision lands at +1017. The odds the fight will be declared a draw land at +4500.
Obviously, with such enormous odds on Berto the oddsmakers are expecting an easy decision victory for the young prospect. On paper it would appear Forbes' best opportunity to pull out the upset would be by decision.
The reason this fight is expected to go into deep waters is because Berto is in a real solid test against Forbes. The former lightweight champion of the world may not be as marketable as Berto, but the kid can fight!
“2 Pound” can be extremely hard to hit, and has very fast hands. The problem for Forbes in the Berto fight (all of his fights really) is his lack of punching power. Even though I am not sold on the building materials of Berto’s chin, I do not believe that Forbes possesses the power to expose any weakness Berto may have in the jaw department.
Although we pointed out the quickness that Forbes brings to the table, there is no question in my mind on Saturday night he will not only be outgunned, but will also be the slower fighter in the ring.
The one area where Forbes does excel over Berto is in the chin department. Forbes has never tasted the canvas as an amateur or a pro! In fact, you would be hard pressed to point to a time and place in his pro career when he has even been hurt.
The only way Forbes wins this fight is by decision and even that is going to be difficult. Berto has a very aggressive, crowd-pleasing style that would suggest Forbes is facing a real uphill battle to win on Saturday night. He will not be able to hurt Berto, and the rapid pace and fast combinations should give Berto the edge in scoring.
Although Berto is the naturally bigger man, I feel the key ingredient for a Berto win is his tremendous speed. Forbes has been in with much larger fighters before and has been able to hold his own but he was usually the fighter bringing the speed advantage to the dance. This time around he faces a bigger, stronger, faster fighter and I think he is going to have difficulty keeping Berto at bay.
I just believe everything Forbes can do Berto does a little bit better. I like him to control the action inside the ring and possibly even stop Forbes late the fight.
Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {+175}
Krakrabbit: 1.34 Units On Berto By Decision {-134}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {+175}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Forbes By Decision {+1017}
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {+175}
Fight Junkie Boxing
PPV Predictions
By Boxeo
Joel Casamayor opened as the underdog in the bout, but since the lined opened there has been nothing but Marquez money coming in. Currently he is a – 390 favorite to defeat Casamayor. Casamayor supporters can grab the underdog money at +320. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +300 and the over at -360.
Marquez by KO comes in at +417, while Marquez by decision will cost you -155. Casamayor by KO hits the mark at +524, and Casamayor by decision lands at +801. The odds of the bout being declared a draw land at +2500.
After his terrible performance against Jose Armando Cruz it was fully understandable why the oddsmakers opened Casamayor as an underdog against his less experienced opponent Michael Katsidis.
However, since his fight with Cruz (he did get the win) he went on to war with Katsidis, eventually knocking out his younger foe in ten brutal rounds.
While there is no questioning the pedigree that Juan Manuel Marquez brings to the dance, I am utterly shocked that Casamayor has stayed in the +300 underdog role for most of the time the betting line has been up.
If bettors are disregarding Casamayor’s ability to score the ‘upset” win over Marquez based solely on his struggles against Katsidis, I think they are making a grave mistake.
It is very important to note that the Michael Katsidis that fought Juan Diaz was nowhere near as effective or aggressive as he was against Casamayor.
When he faced off with Joel, he actually came to win! He came right out after Casamayor and even after being dropped twice in the first round refused to back off his attack. In fact, the brutal knockdown in the tenth round that sealed the deal was a direct result of Katsidis attacking Casamayor with reckless abandonment.
Fast-forward to Katsidis’ fight with Juan Diaz and it looks like a completely different fighter. He came into his fight with Diaz trying to box like Ali and gave away the first half of the bout. Even on the rare occasion when he did turn up the heat, the passion and relentless will to win was not present.
Although Casamayor’s bout with Katsidis was not smooth sailing, Juan Manuel Marquez recently had his own fair share of trouble with Manny Pacquiao. Marquez is coming off a twelve round split decision loss to Manny Pacquiao back in March of this year where he was dropped in the third round of the fight and badly cut over his right eye.
Even with the knockdown deduction it still appeared to my eyes that Marquez did enough effective counterpunching throughout the fight to eek out a close decision win.
Nevertheless, while Marquez has never been stopped in his four losses; recently he is taking more and more solid shots in his fights.
He tends to become more aggressive than necessary in his bouts, leaving himself open to countershots. His lack of defense while on the attack almost cost him a victory in his fight with Barrera.
After stunning the baby-faced assassin, Marquez was severely hurt and dropped (although it was not ruled a knockdown) trying to finish off his wounded opponent. Luckily for Marquez this action took place towards the end of the round and he was able to recover and go on to win the decision. Although the scores in the bout were extremely lopsided, many experts felt the fight was much closer than the three ringside judges indicated.
The other important factor to note is the style of Marquez. Marquez is not a “runner.” Even after being hurt and dropped by Barrera, Marquez came out for the next round standing right in front of Marco and even began trading with him again.
He displayed that same warrior mentality against Manny Pacquiao in the first round of their fight when he was dropped three times. Never did he try to hold “Pac Man” or run away, he stayed right in front of him and threw his own shots.
Now Marquez will move up five pounds to the lightweight division and test his beard against Joel Casamayor.
The move up in weight is something we have to take into consideration. We have no idea how Marquez will look at 135 and if Casamayor will be able to “bully” Marquez around the ring.
Granted, Casamayor was at one time a 130-pound fighter, but he has not fought at the 130-pound weight limit in four years.
Another possible factor in the fight is the southpaw stance of Casamayor. Out of the four losses suffered by Marquez, two have been to southpaws (also a draw with Pacquiao.)
We all know that if Casamayor senses a weakness in the game of Marquez he will instantly go on the offensive. If he feels Marquez cannot handle his physical strength he will press his attack and force Marquez to stand and trade. Should he figure out that Marquez has trouble stopping the straight left hand you can expect a great deal of left hands thrown right down the pipe.
Casamayor makes no bones about doing whatever it takes inside the ring to win. He is often penalized points for his roughhouse tactics and cuts resulting from head clashes seem to follow him wherever he goes.
With Marquez being cut very badly in the past, I would not be shocked to see someone bleeding in this fight before the halfway mark.
With the current odds sitting at over 3-1 I don’t see how you cannot back Joel Casamayor here? Excluding the Cruz fight, when does Casamayor get totally dominated inside the ring? Two of his three losses have come by split decision and that was against Jose Luis Castillo (before he was faded) and Diego Corrales.
Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Casamayor {+320} & 1.00 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full {+220}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Casamayor {+320}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full {+220}
D3: 1.00 Units On Casamayor {+320}
Fight Junkie Boxing
PPV Predictions
By Boxeo
In the rematch the newly crowned champion Mora is still a slight underdog at +110, but the line is a far cry from his original +380 odds back in June. Forrest supporters (are there any still left out there?) are once again forced to lay the favorite line at -130. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +245 and the over at -290.
Forrest by KO comes in at +331, while the former champion by decision will net you +267. Mora by KO hits the mark at +981, and Mora by decision lands at +126. The odds of the bout being declared a draw land at +1600.
Here is the original preview I wrote about the first fight back in June of 2008!
Although there has been some late money coming in on Mora, I feel there are a few good reasons why the “Latin Snake” will have a very tough task beating Vernon Forrest. Although this bout will take place at 154 pounds, Mora has not been at or below that weight since he fought Ishe Smith way back in 2004.
Even though Mora insists that he always had an easy time making 160, coming down in weight may have an adverse affect on his biggest weapon…his legs!
As we all know, Sergio Mora’s biggest asset is being a slick boxer with a style that could certainly cure insomnia. His hit and don’t get hit style, combined with zero punching power, usually make for a very boring night of action whenever he enters the ring.
Speaking of punching power, with only five stoppages in his twenty wins, I think it is fairly safe to say there is zero chance Mora heads into this contest seeking a stoppage win over Forrest.
However, he is also facing an uphill battle if he expects to step into the ring Saturday night and outbox Forrest over the twelve round distance.
At one point and time Forrest was considered one of the elite fighters in the sport, but back to back losses to wild man Ricardo Mayorga, and a plethora of shoulder injuries tainted his status as one of the best fighters in the sport.
Forrest recently had surgery to correct those nagging injuries and looked the best he has in years defeating Carlos Baldomir and most recently Michelle Piccirillo.
Obviously this fight is more about how Forrest will win, not if he will win. For Forrest to stop Mora would be a real feather in his cap. Although I feel Mora is in way over his head against Forrest, throughout his short career, Mora has shown a solid chin and for the time being remains undefeated.
Forrest is a great boxer/counter puncher but I can foresee him having a difficult time chasing Mora around the ring all night in search of the stoppage. There is little doubt in my mind that Forrest will win the fight Saturday, but he will need to land his potent right hand often to keep Mora on the canvas.
With that said, even if Forrest is unable to seriously hurt Mora with his power shots, there is always the chance that Mora’s face begins to fall apart. Mora has been cut inside the ring before and Forrest is a very accurate puncher. If Vernon is able to land consistently on Mora, the above combinations could easily score a TKO win for Forrest.
Obviously I was way off base in predicting Forrest would cruise to an easy win over Mora. I do have to admit, in the early going it did appear as if Forrest was going to be able to take care of business and retain his title against Mora.
In the first half of the fight Forrest was able to land his right hand on Mora with relative ease. He was punching more then his challenger and controlling the tempo of the fight.
The tight grip Forrest had on the fight suddenly released in the second half of the bout when he began breathing like an elderly man connected to an oxygen tank.
As soon as Forrest began to gas Mora seized control of the fight by simply outworking the aging champion. He beat Forrest to the punch at almost every stage of the later rounds and closed the show the much fresher of the two.
Although Forrest looked like a faded fighter during the last half of the fight, the early work he produced in the bout almost allowed him to retain his titles. The scoring read 114-114, 115-113 and 116-112 for Mora.
Had Forrest won one more single round on the 115-113 judges card (John McKaie) he would have walked out of the Mohegan Sun Casino with a draw and his WBC light middleweight title wrapped around his waist.
The scoring is very important to note. If you ask most people about the first fight they will tell you Forrest faded and Mora took him to school, but the scores reflect a much closer fight then we remember.
For his part Forrest acknowledges Mora as being the better man on that night and points to over training as the sole source of his fading in the second half of the fight.
The rematch should tell fight fans all they need to know about the ability of Forrest to compete at this level. If he did over train for the first fight but comes out and takes care of business in the rematch, the career of Vernon “The Viper” Forrest will continue.
However, if he stumbles once again with Mora, there is not a soul in the business who will not be calling for his immediate retirement.
Although there is a real chance that Forrest is done as an elite level fighter, I just cannot bring myself to back Mora. I don’t find him to be exceptionally skilled and he has zero punching power.
Mora also had a tough time making the agreed upon weight limit. He came into the weigh-in over the 154-pound weight limit by two pounds and after one hour of drying out made the super welterweight limit.
As I touched on in my original preview, coming down in weight may have an adverse affect on his biggest weapon…his legs!
Granted, Mora was able to get the job done in the first fight by the skin of his teeth, but if Forrest has anything left in the tank he should be able to win a few more rounds this time around with his harder, more effective punching.
Boxeo Bets: .50 Units On Forrest By Decision {+267}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Forrest By Decision {+267}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Forrest {+110} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Mora By Decision {+126}
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 {+250}
Fight Junkie Boxing
Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo
The newly crowned champion opened as the underdog in the bout and public money has continued to flow in on the challenger, knocking Nate Campbell’s number up to + 170. Guzman supporters will have to lay -200. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +250 and the over at -300.
Guzman by KO comes in at +497, while the challenger by decision will cost you -107. Campbell by KO hits the mark at +508, and Campbell by decision lands at +389. The odds of the bout being declared a draw land at +2250.
As you can see by the betting line, these two fighters each pose serious danger to one another. Guzman is the slick boxer with the superhuman speed, and Campbell can be an aggressive, in your face fighter that will hit you anywhere and everywhere for as long as he can.
Both fighters bring quality skills to this affair and this is the main reason why many boxing “experts” are split on who gets the win Saturday night.
It would appear Guzman’s best chance of beating Campbell would be to stick to his hit and not get hit style. He is the much quicker fighter in the bout, and also possesses a great deal of quality footwork.
He has always had a natural talent for landing rapid-fire combinations on his opponents and then sneaking away, but his recent acquisition of Floyd Mayweather Sr. can only improve his overall effectiveness with this type of style.
For Campbell he can only win this fight one way…going forward! Campbell must use his physical size advantage and harder punches to wear Guzman down enough where he can start to land cleanly on him.
Although Campbell is the bigger fighter, I do not think he has any chance of trying to lure Guzman in, an attempt to counter him. Guzman is simply too fast for Campbell to do anything but march forward and bang away.
Even though Campbell knows what to do, it is very hard to hit Guzman cleanly with even a single shot. He has a natural ability to move just enough that his opponents punches sail over his head or fly past his face. Campbell must be focused and prepared to throw in combinations if he wishes to land enough punches to wear Guzman down.
Heading into this fight, one of the biggest assets for Campbell may have nothing to do with his overall skills. Guzman is moving up in weight again and has already shown a serious decline in punching power as he has marched up the weight class ladder.
You have to wonder how far Guzman can continue to move up before the overall strength and punching power of his opponents becomes too much for him to handle.
Both of these fighters know how to win and have competed at very high levels. However, Campbell is without a doubt best known for his knockout loss at the hands of Robbie Peden. It wasn’t so much that Campbell lost to Peden that shocked the boxing community, but the way it happened that is forever etched in the minds of boxing fans.
Campbell appeared to have the bout in hand when for some baffling reason he dropped his hands and stuck out his chin, inviting Peden to try his hand at knocking him out. Peden obliged, and did just that…stopping Campbell in one of the more memorable boxing moments.
I am certain a lot of people lost a great deal of money on Campbell’s inexplicable actions, and whenever you look back at the career of the “Galaxxy Warrior” that fight is certain to stand out.
If Campbell knows what’s good for him he will not try any high jinks against Guzman!
This fight is certainly a contrast in styles. The winner will be the fighter that was able to impose their style and dictate the pace. Guzman can do this by firing off combinations and then moving away. Campbell will need to be set to punch and will have to reset every time Guzman moves.
For Campbell to impose his will, he must force Guzman into exchanges and try to trap him along the ropes where he can fire his powerful shots on a more stationary target.
I think it is going to be a really tough task for Campbell to lure Guzman into his type of fight. I believe there may be occasions where Guzman stands and trades, but I don’t think Mayweather Sr. will allow him to do this on a regular basis. Even though the occasions may be far and few between, whenever he does stand and trade leather, Campbell must take advantage of the opportunity to hit Guzman flush.
I can easily see Guzman frustrating Campbell by hitting and not getting hit. His quick hands and equally quick feet should allow him to stay out of harms way for the most part. His biggest dangers are letting Campbell get too close and trying to bang with the naturally bigger man.
Boxeo: 3.21 Units On Guzman By Dec {-107} & 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 {+250}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Campbell {+170}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 2.00 Units On Guzman {-200}
D3: 2.00 Units On Guzman {-200}
Fight Junkie Boxing
HBO Predictions
By Boxeo
Although both are coming off their first professional losses, Diaz opened as the clear favorite in the bout and currently rests at – 400. Katsidis supporters can grab the underdog money at +310. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +125 and the over at -145.
Katsidis by KO comes in at +475, while Katsidis by decision will reward you with +839. Diaz by KO hits the mark at +131, and Diaz by decision lands at +350.
Although both fighters enter this contest after suffering devastating defeats, the truth is Katsidis has not looked great in his last two outings. Previous to his war with Joel Casamayor, Katsidis had an extremely difficult time against Czar Amonsot.
Katsidis struggled early against Amonsot, and showed a serious lack of defense throughout the entire bout. His lack of being able to move his face away from the leather hurling towards him has caused his face to swell and cut in numerous fights. The fight with Amonsot was no exception. From early on in the contest Katsidis was forced to fight with his eyes swollen and his face shredded.
Many ringside observers, as well as fight fans watching at home, could not believe their eyes when round after round Katsidis was allowed to continue fighting even though his face was a bloody mess.
Even though Katsidis came away from the bout with the victory, he certainly did not display the kind of attributes that I felt would be needed to beat Casamayor.
When Michael Katsidis opened up as the favorite over Joel Casamayor I knew I would be playing the underdog on that night.
On the night of the fight things could not have started any better for those bettors fading Katsidis. His face first style played right into the hands of the slick, counterpunching of Casamayor, and before you knew it Katsidis had hit the deck twice in the very first round of the fight!
However, Katsidis showed his true grit in his bout against Casamayor, refusing to let his opportunity for a victory fade away. He battled Casamayor toe-to-toe and even dropped the crafty veteran in the sixth round of the bout.
Going down the stretch the fight appeared to have been fought on even terms. Katsidis continued to press forward and Casamayor continued to try and land crisp counters as his foe marched ahead.
In the tenth round of the bout Casamayor caught Katsidis with a beautifully timed countershot that instantly crumpled the previously undefeated Katsidis to the canvas.
Although the brave Katsidis once again climbed to his feet, it was only a matter of seconds before the referee was jumping in to save him for anymore brutal punishment. He would go on to lose his first professional fight by stoppage at the hands of Joel Casamayor.
Now, just six months later he will try to get back to his winning ways against Juan “Baby Bull” Diaz.
Juan Diaz’s fighting style is not unlike Michael Katsidis’ fighting style. The mirror image these two display inside the ring is the major reason fight fans are so hyped about the battle between the once beaten fighters.
Diaz is an in your face, pressure type of fighter. It is easiest to describe Juan as a bigger Wayne McCullough, with more power. He will come right out after Katsidis and look to make it a slugfest from the start.
Although Juan may have more power then McCullough, for his weight class, he is not considered a big puncher. He simply overwhelms his opponents with non-stop punching from start to finish.
His non-stop punching technique carried him to numerous titles and an undefeated record, but the “Baby Bull” finally met his match last March when he stepped into the ring against Nate Campbell.
Diaz opened that fight as a ridiculous –800 favorite and it wasn’t long before a ton of Campbell money had rushed in, quickly dropping Diaz to –450.
With such crazy odds and the pure talent level of Campbell, it was pretty much a no brainer to put something on Campbell to score the upset win.
Right from the start of the contest Diaz and Campbell went into the trenches and began to war. Diaz did what he always does and threw punch after punch while Campbell picked his shots more carefully, dropping heavy thunder whenever the opportunity presented itself.
Diaz was cut over his left eye in the very first round of the contest from a headbutt and that eye began to increasingly swell shut as the rounds progressed.
The entire fight was fought at a tremendous pace and Campbell was able to implement a tremendous body attack that slowly began to wear the “Baby Bull” down.
Just as Katsidis was forced to dig down deep in his battle with Casamayor, Diaz also showed the heart of a warrior, refusing to stop trying to impose his will on Campbell.
Unlike Diaz’s previous opposition, Campbell refused to wilt under the intense pressure from Diaz and would go on to win a split decision victory.
There is little doubt in my mind that this fight will produce fireworks. Katsidis does not know how to take a backwards step and Diaz proved in his loss to Campbell that he is not lacking in either the chin or the heart department.
Although there is a slim chance Diaz may try to mix in a little boxing with his brawling, neither of these guys is the next Floyd Mayweather Jr. If either guy should try to mix in some movement and counterpunching techniques it won’t last very long. Their pure boxing skills are not adequate enough to keep their opponent at bay all night. The name of the game for these two fighters is unadulterated, aggressive pressure!
With that said, I feel the fight will undoubtedly be decided in the trenches. Juan applies so much pressure that his opponents are forced to try and match him punch for punch or risk being pummeled along the ring ropes. He is a non-stop punching machine, and even though he has very little one-punch knockout power, he can score stoppages by battering and tiring out his opponents.
Katsidis is one of the few opponents that Diaz will have faced that welcomes an opportunity for an all out toe-to-toe war every time he steps into the ring. Usually when Diaz is allowed to get into his pressure-fighting mode the conditioning of his opponents are severely tested.
Most of the time his rivals cannot match him in the workrate department and as the rounds go by they get deeper and deeper into a scoring deficiency. The combination of absorbing a million shots, and knowing you are losing badly on the scorecards tends to quickly wear a fighter down physically and mentality.
On Saturday night I am not so sure he is going to have that huge advantage over Katsidis. Katsidis likes to throw down just as much as Diaz but also brings explosive punching power to the dance.
However, we all know Katsidis has never met a punch he didn’t like. The problem with his type of fighting style is his face falls apart at the sight of a flush punch and his defense is non-existent.
While Diaz is certainly far from a defensive wizard, he does tend to block punches very well with his gloves. If Diaz is on his game (did the beatdown at the hands of Campbell take something out of him?), he should have many opportunities to land leather on Katsidis as they stand face to face.
While I certainly would be shocked to see the Baby Bull lay Katsidis out with a single shot, I do think his non-stop aggression can force Katsidis to fight at a faster pace then he is accustom to, amplifying his lack of defensive skills.
Even if Diaz is unable to hurt Katsidis when he lands, as long as he continues to touch him over and over again, there is great probability that Diaz will be able to slice and dice the face of Katsidis to shreds.
The one saving grace for Katsidis supporters is his power. Diaz will be there to be hit and Campbell showed that you could find the Baby Bull to both the head and body. I feel if Katsidis is going to rebound from his first professional loss it is going to have to be by knockout.
Because both guys like to duke it out Mano y Mano and will surely be moving forward, I would not be shocked to see blood and/or swelling from one or both fighters very early in the fight. It is for the reason I am going to play the under in this clash and hope the fireworks start early on Saturday night.
Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160} (Vegas Odds)
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units Diaz By Decision {+350}
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160} (Vegas Odds)
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160} (Vegas Odds)
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