Fight Junkie
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Fight Junkie Boxing
7/31/10PPV Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Marquez opened as the favorite in the fight and the public loved him so much that he now sits at around -450. Currently, you can score +350 on Diaz.
The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the lines coming in at +175 for the under and -210 for the over. Marquez by KO comes in at +146, while Marquez by decision will reward you with +153. Diaz by KO hits the mark at +599, and Diaz by decision lands at +478. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +3000.
This will be the second time the living legend Juan Manuel Marquez and Juan Diaz face off with each other inside the ring and it has now been 15 months since these two warriors last saw each other.
Their first contest was an all out brawl from the start of the fight, and quickly became a leading candidate for Fight of the Year as Marquez and Diaz slugged it out for nine rounds. In the ninth round, Marquez finally got to Diaz and was able to put him away for yet another victory in his storied career.
Juan Manuel Marquez has only has one fight since fighting Diaz, and that was against Floyd Mayweather Jr. at a very high weight. Marquez weighed in at 142 pounds for his bout with Mayweather!
Juan Manuel’s fight with Mayweather was very disappointing to say the least, as Mayweather, coming off a two year layoff, was able to easily outbox and outland on his much slower opponent. Floyd was even able to drop Marquez in the second round, but in classic Mayweather fashion, was unable to finish and rode out a 120-107 decision win.
Juan Manuel Marquez, as we all know, is a living legend inside and outside of Mexico. He is often regarded as being pretty quick, while using some amazing counter punching skills as his bread and butter.
Even at the age of 36, I still think Juan Manuel Marquez has diminished very little over the years, even with his wars with Manny Pacquiao and Juan Diaz, as well as fights against Chris John and Joel Casamayor among others weighing on him.
Marquez’s main tool and weapon though is his counter punching and amazing ring IQ. Juan Manuel loves to wait for you to throw, and then counter back with his own vicious, and very hard, shots. If his usual gameplan is not working, then Marquez also has the ability to adjust on the fly and give himself more opportunities because of it.
As well as that, Juan Manuel also has very good recovery skills. Don’t get me wrong, the guy gets dropped and hurt plenty, but he has never been knocked out in his five losses, and that includes 24 rounds with Manny Pacquiao, 12 rounds of beating from Floyd Mayweather Jr. at a bloated weight, and a close 11 round fight with Joel Casamayor (whom Marquez knocked out).
I feel one of the reasons Marquez is able to survive when he gets stunned is because he does not show vulnerability even while hurt. In fact, when he starts to feel the pain he will start throwing and trading even more and is more then willing to go down swinging if he has to.
Juan “Baby Bull” Diaz usually lives up to his nickname in most of his fights, and is a full on pressure fighter from the start. Diaz is just a fun guy to watch overall, because like Marquez, he is willing to brawl with most anyone and make it a fight to be remembered for the ages.
Juan Diaz has some very good qualities about him, such as his strong pressure, which he often uses to wear down his opponent and slow them to a crawl over the course of the fight. There are not many fighters who can stand in there in from of the Baby Bull and feel as fresh in the last round as they did in the first round.
Even though Juan Diaz does not punch very hard, his punch output is overwhelming and any KOs he does get is from throwing so many punches that his opponent simply cannot keep up with the pace he sets.
In addition to that, Diaz is also a pretty fast guy. He possessed the speed advantage against Marquez the first time they fought, so I think that tells you about just how fast Diaz is.
The biggest asset to Diaz is his ability to take a punch though. Throughout his career, Juan has taken his fair share of shots but he has always been able to take those punches. Guys like Jose Miguel Cotto, Fernando Angulo, Acelino Freitas, Nate Campbell, and Michael Katsidis dot Diaz’s resume, and were unable to stop him no matter what they hit him with.
The question is though, is if Juan Diaz’s chin is still as good as it ever was, or if his whiskers are getting a bit thin these days after taking so many shots. It is common knowledge that guys that fight like Diaz often tend to lose their abilities or chins at a younger age then most because they are the “hit and be hit” type of fighter.
In Diaz’s last fight (a one sided, basically shutout loss to Paulie Malignaggi), Diaz was even stunned by a Malignaggi right uppercut during the middle rounds of their contest. Juan Diaz...stunned by Paulie Malignaggi!!
I feel this is a big sign that Diaz’s chin is beginning to show serious signs of cracks, and if Malignaggi was able to hurt Diaz, then pretty much anybody should be able to make Diaz feel some hurt.
Granted, it was a flush, on the button, perfect shot that hit Diaz and made him do a little dance, but I think that is telling about the current state of the Baby Bull’s chin.
Juan Diaz was able to take about 8 rounds of hard, solid shots from Marquez before finally slowing down and getting evidently hurt and eventually knocked out (basically) cold in the ninth round. He didn’t get hurt against Paulie in their first fight, but he did in their second fight.
In addition to being stunned by Malignaggi in their second fight, Diaz has looked poorly since his defeat to Marquez. He arguably lost the first fight, and he got practically shut out in the rematch.
Both Malignaggi fights were at 140 pounds, whereas the Marquez fight was at 135, but the performance difference between the Marquez fight (where the fight was a draw up until the stoppage) and the Malignaggi bouts is significant. Especially in their second contest, where Diaz looked very off balance and was swinging a bit too wild for my liking.
Like I said, I venture to guess that getting knocked out as hard as he was by Marquez took something out of him, whether mentally or physically. But no matter if you want to debate if Diaz is totally “shot” or not, I have NO doubt in my mind at all that Diaz’s chin is not as good as it was when he faced off with Marquez the first time.
Now, you may have noticed that the punch that Malignaggi hurt Diaz with was a right uppercut, the exact same punch that Marquez knocked Diaz out with in the ninth round. Diaz has shown a vulnerability to getting tagged with that specific punch previously in his career.
Let’s move onto how all of this will mesh into the rematch between Juan Manuel Marquez and Juan Diaz now.
In their first fight, it took Marquez until about the sixth round for his early bodywork (something I believe he needs to do again this time) to start taking its toll and slow Diaz down. After that point, Marquez began to put his punches together (mainly the right hand and uppercut) and tee off on Diaz.
Now, the Baby Bull doesn’t have terrible defense when he puts his hands up. In fact, his actual guard isn’t bad, but it’s when he’s throwing punches that he becomes susceptible to getting hit. You can’t throw as many punches as Diaz usually does and defend yourself at the same time.
I suspect that Juan Diaz has been working on his uppercut defense, because that was the punch that put him out the first time around, and he has never been very good at defending the uppercut.
I feel that Marquez will be trying to use the uppercut from earlier in the fight then last time, but whether or not his attempts will be successful is a question. I cannot say just how well Diaz can defend the uppercut now, as he has only been working on avoiding it for a couple months in anticipation of this fight.
Speaking of doing things differently, Juan Diaz has stated publicly that he is not going to fight the same, reckless, aggressive fight as he did the first time because the way he fought the first time allowed him to get countered.
There are a couple of things Diaz could do here. He could try to outbox Marquez, but I don’t think anyone in his camp is so stupid as to believe Juan Diaz could beat a master boxer like Juan Manuel Marquez at his own game.
Juan could also use an in-and-out kind of style, which is something he did a bit of in their first fight. I believe this is the most likely scenario for Diaz. If Juan jumps in, gets a few shots off, then moves away, he may be able to minimize damage and avoid getting hit as much as he did in the first fight.
I think, doing this, he will be able to take less punches then he did the first time and maybe he won’t be so quickly lured into a brawl with Marquez (immediately), but one way or another I think Diaz will end up slugging it out with Marquez again.
Juan Diaz is a fighter, and he likes to fight. He likes to brawl. He likes to slug. He likes to take shots and he likes to give his own. Even if Diaz could “box” (or use in and out movement) for a bit, there is little doubt that once Marquez starts inviting him into a slugfest, Diaz will be hard pressed to decline the invitation.
I’m not saying he will walk into another barnburner and slug it out with Marquez, I just think that Diaz will end up brawling with Juan Manual in spurts throughout the fight. Not consistently.
But, say Juan does indeed have the capacity to hold back the Baby Bull inside of him and try to maintain a more tactical pace; the question here if that happened is if Marquez would be able to adjust and neutralize his new strategy.
Juan Manuel Marquez has faced some very good boxers, plenty of them much better at moving backwards and sideways then Juan Diaz will ever be. I don’t think any kind of “boxing” Diaz can do will bother Marquez. The only thing that could allow Diaz to go some rounds is a possible in and out kind of movement, but even then its not like Juan won’t still be getting hit.
Nonetheless, there is no question that if Diaz fights a more defensive, smarter fight, he will have more success and if he and his trainer are correct, he will avoid getting caught with anything big.
Marquez is a very intelligent fighter inside the ring, and I wonder just how long it will take before Marquez is able to start hitting Diaz while Juan flurries or as he moves out. I can’t say how long it will take, because the effectiveness of the Baby Bull’s new gameplan is up in the air. We never see Diaz move in any direction but forward, so there is a good possibility that if Juan attempts to use an in-and-out style, he could be fumbling all over himself.
I feel the biggest question of all in this fight is all about Diaz’s chin. I think this is a relatively easy fight for Juan Manuel Marquez, because in my opinion Diaz would give Marquez the toughest fight possible by brawling and trying to get to Marquez.
I have no doubt at all that Diaz cannot take the same shots that he did in the 1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round etc. this time around with going down. I think the possibility of Diaz being able to take solid right hands or uppercuts on the chin without wobbling, like he did in 2009, is nearly impossible.
I actually have a bad feeling that Juan Diaz will react very badly to one of the first clean shots he gets hit with. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Diaz trying to avoid getting hit early on, but as soon as he does I suspect he will take the punch worse then people expect him to.
I anticipate Juan Manuel Marquez landing something cleanly and stopping the Baby Bull sometime before the seventh round.
Don’t get me wrong, the Baby Bull is a favorite fighter of mine (so is Marquez), but he has not been looking good ever since his loss to Nate Campbell and that Marquez knockout was extremely vicious.
Now, I could be a bit off with just how gone I think Diaz’s chin is, but even if Diaz’s chin is just one iota worse then it was the first time around, Juan’s going to have a tough time taking anything big from Marquez, especially anything half as strong as he took in the first fight.
Diaz’s altered style could extend the fight a bit early on, but I still have faith that Marquez will be able to adjust and catch Diaz with something big before we hit the championship rounds.
Another reason why I like the under in this fight is because of the strong possibility of cuts on either fighter. Both Juan Manual Marquez and Juan Diaz have shown to have vulnerable faces that cut and swell rather easily, and fights in Las Vegas have a habit of not going too many rounds when somebody is cut badly.
Either man could be cut in this fight, and if the bout goes any decent amount of rounds I would be shocked to not see somebody bleeding at some point.
Krakrabbit: 5.00 Units On Under 10.5 Rounds {+185} (Vegas Odds)
Boxeo: 4.00 Units On Under 10.5 Rounds {+185} (Vegas Odds)
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Under 10.5 Rounds {+185} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Under 10.5 Rounds {+185} (Vegas Odds)
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 10.5 Rounds {+185} (Vegas Odds)
Fight Junkie Boxing
7/31/10PPV Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Linares somehow opened as a –900 favorite in the fight with Rocky sitting at +500! However, that line did not last very long as the public quickly pounded Rocky Juarez all the way down to +260. Linares now sits as a –335 favorite.
The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the lines coming in at +320 for the under and -390 for the over. Linares by KO comes in at +563, while Linares by decision will cost you -175. At one point Juarez by KO hit the mark at +1010, but of course the public pounded that line too and it now sits at +563. Juarez by decision is currently sitting at +477. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +2750.
This will be only the second fight since Jorge Linares was shockingly knocked out by no-name Juan Carlos Salgado in Japan in late 2009. In that fight, Linares was caught in the first round of their contest, dropped twice, and upon getting up from the second knockdown the ref waved the fight off.
Now, Jorge Linares has always has a questionable chin, and had hit the canvas and been hurt before fighting Salgado, but it is easy to say that the way Linares was destroyed with only a couple shots was just a tiny bit surprising.
Salgado’s left hook dropped Linares like a rock, and he was never able to recover from getting hit with that punch. The punches that followed were just to get the ref to wave it, because Linares was dead on his feet after getting dropped.
Skill wise, Jorge Linares is pretty good but I would not say elite. He has some decent speed and can punch pretty well (against anyone with even a somewhat weak chin anyway). As well as that, his boxing ability is solid.
At heart, Linares is a boxer who likes to move around popping the jab and wearing you down. In fact, many of Linares’ knockouts came later in his fights, after a bit of a sustained beat down.
As we saw though, Linares is certainly not invincible and has flaws in his game. First off, this is a pretty obvious one...his chin is weak. As I mentioned he had been hurt and dropped before, and if you look at his resume, Linares has avoided fighting power puncher in many of his fights.
As well as that, the guy isn’t exactly Floyd Mayweather Jr. when it comes to defense. His guard is OK, but he can be hit through his guard and sometimes he gets clocked a bit too often for my liking.
Rocky Juarez, well, most people know who Rocky Juarez is and what this poor guys’ story is. Rocky Juarez considers himself 0-5 in title fights against Humberto Soto, Marco Antonio Barrera (twice), Juan Manual Marquez, and Chris John and dreams of winning a world title someday.
Technically, you could say Juarez already held a world title after beating Jorge Rodrigo Barrios for the vacant WBO Latino super featherweight title, but I assume that he does not consider the WBO to be as high a sanctioning body as the WBA, WBC and IBF.
All of Juarez’s loses (except for Juan Manual Marquez, that was just a beat down) can be attributed to his lack of punch output inside the ring. He came so close to beating Barrera the first time, (and the second time lost via even wider scores), Soto, and Chris John, but was unable to pull out the wins in any of those fights.
Rocky Juarez is a very good fighter, but a frustrating one to watch because he just doesn’t let his hands go often enough.
When he does though, he can cause a lot of problems for many fighters with his unique skills.
Rocky Juarez has a good left hook (the Linares conqueror!) and right hand as well, and he packs thunder in both hands. In addition to that, Juarez has an iron chin and has been able to absorb the punches from guys like Juan Manual Marquez, Marco Antonio Barrera, Jason Litzau (in a fight that Rocky got robbed in), among others.
Honestly though, Juarez doesn’t get hit cleanly on the chin too often. His guard is nice and tight and as I mentioned his chin is granite so anything he does get hit with he is able to take.
Stylistically, I think this is a very good fight for Rocky Juarez. He has big power in both hands, is somewhat quick (probably can compete with Linares in the speed department), and the chin to take anything Jorge can dish at him.
I can’t expect Rocky to let his hands go, nor am I picking him on the thought that this time he will throw more punches. I think he can win this fight even by fighting the way he always does, which is aggressive but without a large punch output.
If Juan Carlos Salgado can drop Linares like a ton of bricks with one punch, then a stronger, better puncher like Juarez may just get the one-punch knockout if he can land.
10 rounds is a long way to go without getting hit once, because I believe it will only take one or two punches for Juarez to put Linares away.
Adding to all of that, if this fight were on the up and up and Linares was somehow able to avoid getting tagged for 10 rounds, I think it would be a very winnable fight for Rocky even on the judge’s scorecards.
It’s not about how many punches Juarez throws, but it’s about the lack of punches Linares throws. Jorge does not throw very many punches at all, and I do not consider him even as active a puncher as a pure boxer like Chris John.
However, Jorge Linares is a Golden Boy Promotions fighter, and we all know how difficult it is to beat those fighters on the judges’ scorecards. I don’t think Linares will make it to the final bell, but if he does it is likely, no matter how the fight played out, that they will give the win to Linares.
In any case though, even in a 10 round fight I feel Rocky will get to Linares at some point and put his lights out. It will most likely be with one of Juarez’s money punches, the left hook (which is very possible), or the right hand. I suspect, sometime before 7, though a well-placed shot could drop Linares out of nowhere.
I am utterly shocked that Rocky Juarez opened as a 5-1 underdog, and I fully understand why his line quickly dropped to the point it is now. This is a great match up for Juarez, and he has all the tools to pull off the “massive upset” in this fight.
Krakrabbit: 3.00 Units On Juarez By KO {+1010}
Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Juarez By KO {+1010}
Grass Hopper: 1.00 Units On Juarez By KO {+1010}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Juarez By KO {+1010}
D3: 1.00 Units On Juarez By KO {+1010}
Fight Junkie Boxing
7/31/10PPV Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Jacobs opened the contest as the small favorite in the fight and some money has flowed in on him. Jacobs now sits at around -180 at most books. Currently, you can score +160 on Pirog.
The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +160 and the over at -180. Jacobs by KO comes in at +186, while Jacobs by decision will reward you with +186. Pirog by KO hits the mark at +335, and Pirog by decision lands at +399. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +3500.
Daniel Jacobs is coming off a quick two round victory over Juan Astorga two months ago in his hometown of New York. In his one sided win over Astorga, Jacobs was able to walk through his opponent and steam roll him and finish him with body shots in the second round.
Before that, Jacobs had a very hard fought decision win over Ishe Smith in the biggest fight of his career. Danny came into the fight as the pretty heavy favorite, and was able to net himself rounds off out punching Ishe (everyone throws more then Ishe!), but it was not nearly as easy a decision as the scorecards suggest.
Pathetically enough, Jacobs was stunned by Ishe a couple times over the course of their fight and was barely able to win the contest in the eyes of many. The one sided 96-93 and 100-89 scorecards (especially the 100-89 card) were a bit too wide.
Danny Jacobs is an up and coming prospect who is still trying to move up the middleweight rankings, and as such his career hasn’t really been illustrious. His best wins come over Michael Walker, in a fight where Jacobs looked terrible, and Ishe Smith. Other then that the names you see on Jacob’s resume are not even worth mentioning.
Skill wise, I have seen better fighters to say the least. Danny Jacobs is not terrible, but he isn’t as good as some make him out to be.
At times, Jacobs shows off some decent speed but other times Jacobs totally forgoes being fast and just tries to bomb people with his power. He is one way or another, and isn’t a quick, strong guy. He can play both roles, but only one role at a time.
His technique is also a bit, just a bit, flawed. He often swings too wild and wide and while he does throw some decent shots to the body, when he goes head hunting his punches can be pretty “fat” (as Teddy Atlus would say).
More importantly though, I have serious doubts about both Jacob’s stamina and chin. As I mentioned, he was seriously hurt by the light hitting Ishe Smith, and he often gasses (quite badly) in his fights after around the seventh round.
Dmitry Pirog is also an up and coming middleweight prospect who is undefeated in 16 fights, but is known by very few fans in the United States. Pirog has only ever fought outside of Russian, his backyard, once, and that was to fight in Germany. It is no surprise nobody knows who this guy is.
Like Jacobs, Pirog basically only has one decent win, but at least Pirog easily won his fight. He holds a 120-109 unanimous decision victory over Kofi Jantuah (in his only fight outside of Russia), and was easily able to outclass his experienced opponent.
Despite nobody knowing who this guy is, Pirog isn’t a half bad fighter.
He likes to employ the Floyd Mayweather style of defense, and while obviously he isn’t as successful, his head movement is OK most of the time against slower opposition.
Offensively, Pirog is mostly a counter puncher who likes to use his defense to set up a counter attack. Dmitry’s hand speed is pretty good, and he is fast enough to counter successfully when he wants to.
I do have some questions about his power and how he likes pressure though. Despite 13 stoppages in 16 wins, Pirog doesn’t throw with bad intentions and actually arm punches much of the time. I feel that many of Pirog’s KOs have probably come simply because he was facing terrible opposition, not because Dmitry punches like a mule.
Stylistically I think there is a solid chance that Pirog can time and counter Jacobs, especially when Daniel begins to wing those powerful, but slow and wide shots to the head.
As I mentioned though, there is no telling how Pirog will handle Jacobs’ pressure or power for that matter, as he has never even fought anyone with the kind of power Jacobs has. I would even venture to guess that Jacobs is the best opponent Pirog has fought, which tells you all you need to know about Dmitry’s resume to date.
I think the odds are a good reflection of the fight this time around. Danny Jacobs has a bit too much hype around him making for a misleading idea that he is going to beat everyone in the middleweight division with his eyes closed.
Dmitry Pirog has fought nobody and you have to wonder how he will take this step up in competition, in his first fight in the United States.
I venture to guess that Pirog will have his moments in the fight, but Danny’s pressure and pace will net him most of the early rounds. The big question comes if and when Jacobs gasses. When that happens, Pirog will have about four rounds to knock a tired Jacobs out, and I feel that is when Danny must be at his best in order to survive that rocky patch when he’s worn out (assuming Pirog doesn’t tire).
I think it is very possible, but Priog just doesn’t strike me as a good power puncher nor do I believe he is as precise or skilled as Ishe Smith is. He throws more punches, but it is likely Pirog won’t be able to replicate how cleanly Ishe landed on Jacobs, and how defensively sound Ishe was in that fight as well.
Oh, and in case you did not notice I have been suggesting Priog winning by KO in the final rounds, but never by decision. That is because the “Golden Child”, is truly a golden child under Golden Boy Promotions.
He got an outrageous scorecard against the well-known Ishe Smith, and Dmitry Pirog is a no body in the boxing community when it comes to names. I have little doubt that if it came down to it (and I suspect it will, unless Pirog is less durable then I believe he can be) Dmitry Pirog would need a knockout to get a draw.
I highly doubt they are going to let somebody like Dmitry win on the scorecards against a popular, power-punching guy like Daniel Jacobs.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Danny putting it on early, and winning those rounds then most likely struggling or losing most of the rounds after he gasses (if Pirog can make it that long). But early on Jacobs should bank enough points that if the fight hits the scorecards, Jacobs will get another win on his resume. Though I cannot shake the feeling that Pirog will stir things up a bit with some counter shots during the fight, but I doubt he will be able to stop Danny.
Krakrabbit: 1.25 Units On Jacobs {-125}
Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Pirog By KO {+335}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: N/P
D3: N/P
Fight Junkie Boxing
7/31/10PPV Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Guerrero opened the fight as the massive -1200 favorite with Casamayor sitting at +600! However, like the Jorge Linares/Rocky Juarez line, those numbers did not last very long as the public quickly pounded Casamayor all the way down to +425. Guerrero now sits as a -675 favorite.
The O/U on the bout is set at 8.5 rounds, with the lines coming in at +200 for the under and -240 for the over. Guerrero by KO comes in at +245, while Guerrero by decision will cost you -145. Casamayor by KO hits the mark at +605, and Casamayor by decision lands at +891. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +3500.
Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero is fresh off a dominating performance over journeyman Roberto David Arrieta three months ago in Las Vegas. In this fight with Arrieta, Guerrero was able to pull out the stoppage over the tough fighter in eight rounds.
During the fight, Arrieta opted to run more then fight and was most likely looking to make it the distance more the anything else, but Guerrero was able to catch Arrieta just a few seconds into round eight with a one-two combination and dropped Arrieta like a rock.
After Arrieta got back up, it only took a couple of punches for the ref to wave the fight off. I feel the stoppage was a bit early, but it was unlikely Arrieta was going to make it out of the round anyway.
Robert Guerrero, despite a solid career with wins over Martin Honorio, Jason Litzau, Efren Hinojosa, and Malcolm Klassen, (all of the names mentioned except for Klassen were stopped), has been a bit underrated for the most part of his career. Notice how I say “most part”, because obviously the oddsmakers consider Guerrero to be on another level then Joel Casamayor at this point, but that may also have something to do with the common idea that Casamayor is getting too old.
No matter what anyone says though, Guerrero is quite good. He has good hand speed, very solid power in both hands, a powerful straight left hand and right hook, an impressive chin and overall fine technique.
As well as that, his jab is also good and makes for a good foundation to set up his left hand.
In addition, of Guerrero’s 10 last victories in 12 total contests (two no decisions), nine of them have come by knockout.
Robert’s face can bust up pretty good sometimes though, and cuts and swelling have been a bit of a problem for him in the past. The good thing is that his defense is often good enough where he doesn’t look like he just had plastic surgery after his fights, though if he takes a few too many shots he does start to bust up a bit.
Style wise Robert Guerrero can show off a bit of brawling and boxing skills. He has good bodyshots and impeccable stamina (when he doesn’t throw a hundred punches per round like he did against Klassen), and is able to maintain a strong pace while he pushes forward.
But, it’s not uncommon to see Guerrero box a little bit sometimes during his fights. I feel Guerrero is probably a bit better when he is coming forward throwing shots, but only by a hair because his boxing ability just keeps improving.
Joel Casamayor is also coming off a victory over a bum fighter, with his last fight coming eight months ago. In his last bout, a welterweight contest, Casamayor was able to UD the 11-4 Jason Davis, but by no means was it an impressive performance.
In his fight with Davis, which, I must note again was at welterweight, Casamayor looked very slow and off his rhythm and if the fight would have been at 140 pounds, I would have immediately suspected Casamayor to be slowing down at this point in his career.
Joel Casamayor has had a very accomplished career and has been trying to fight off claims that he is old and shot and isn’t what he used to be, but lately he has been struggling.
He barely beat Jose Armando Santa Cruz (many think Casamayor actually should have lost the fight, and Casamayor got stripped of his title for not giving Jose a rematch), who, truthfully, isn’t very good. He was trailing on two scorecards at the time of his stoppage over Michael Katsidis in his barnburner of a fight, and was hurt and dropped multiple times over the course of the fight. After that, Juan Manual Marquez knocked him out in another war and then obviously he UD’d Jason Davis in his last fight.
Even though Casamayor only has one defeat in his last seven fights, I believe Joel is not quite what he used to be.
Don’t get me wrong, Joel Casamayor is still a quick, slick, crafty (AKA, dirty) veteran with deceiving power, but I think he is slipping a bit at the age of 39 and the many wars he has gone through in his 14-year career have taken a bit of a toll on his chin as well.
I feel Robert Guerrero poses a serious challenge for Joel Casamayor with his style, skill set and speed, and Casamayor will have difficulties teeing off on Robert like he did Michael Katsidis.
Guerrero’s punch output (which is pretty solid once he gets going) and bodywork (which I believe will be a key thing considering Casamayor is weak to the body) I suspect will help Robert immensely in this fight.
I cannot count Joel Casamayor out of the fight completely, because there is still a chance that he can pull something out of the hat but I personally believe this is a fight for Guerrero to win. A calculated risk that could end up paying off well if Robert gets the win over a still relevant, accomplished fighter like Casamayor.
Another thing Casamayor has going against him though, is that I suspect he cannot win on the scorecards. People have been calling Joel old and tired for a while now, and this may be the perfect situation to force an “out with the old, in with the new” passing of the guard kind of thing while at the same time propelling Guerrero to new, bigger, profitable fights in the division.
I feel I must note though, that even though Guerrero punches pretty hard and has a solid arsenal of attack, I do not think he will stop Casamayor. I’m not completely ruling it out, but there are a couple of factors that could hinder a Guerrero stoppage.
First off, this will be Robert’s first fight in the 140-pound light welterweight division, and there is no telling if it will affect Guerrero’s power against an already solid chinned fighter. Not to mention the possibility (unlikely in my opinion, but possible) that Guerrero’s actual skills or speed is affected by the move up in weight.
I anticipate Guerrero netting the rounds off activity and pressure, and while Casamayor may have some moments in the fight, I would not be surprised to see Robert Guerrero walk away with a 97-93 decision.
Krakrabbit: 2.90 Units On Guerrero By Decision {-145}
Boxeo: 1.45 Units On Guerrero By Decision {-145}
Grass Hopper: .50 Units On Casamayor {+600}
Doody: 1.45 Units On Guerrero By Decision {-145}
D3: 1.45 Units On Guerrero By Decision {-145}
Fight Junkie Boxing
FNF Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Shumenov opened about a -140 favorite over Uzelkov, and the lines have remained pretty steady since their opening on Thursday. Currently, you can score Uzelkov at +125. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over landing at -160 and the under coming in at +120.
Shumenov by KO comes in at +228, while Shumenov by decision will reward you with +229. Uzelkov by KO hits the mark at +200, and Uzelkov by decision lands at +644. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +2500.
This will be Beibut Shumenov’s first defense of his newly won title that he took from former champion Gabriel Campillo in his last fight six months ago. Even though the record books show Shumenov winning a unanimous decision, that fight was far from what it seems to be on paper.
In the rematch between the two fighters (Campillo had given Shumenov his only loss), Campillo was able to control and dominate Shumenov for the most part of their contest. From round one to round twelve, it had looked as though Campillo would hand Shumenov another defeat.
However, when the decision was read, Shumenov’s hand was raised! It was as blatant a robbery as they come, and there is no question that this should be Campillo vs. Uzelkov, not Shumenov vs. Uzelkov.
Nonetheless, I feel it is important to explain what Shumenov did wrong in that fight, and if Uzelkov can capitalize off of Shumenov’s weaknesses.
First off, Beibut Shumenov was once a decent fighter/prospect. From his debut in November of 2007 to his first fight with Campillo in August of 2009, Shumenov was always a strong, in your face brawler that looked to have some nice power in his gloves.
After losing to Campillo though, Shumenov changed his trainer in hopes of becoming a better fighter. That certainly did not happen, and I would go so far as to say that Beibut has regressed as a fighter.
The biggest thing Beibut’s new coach added into Shumenov’s game is massive punch output. Whereas Shumenov used to throw a lot less, but a lot more powerful punches, his new coach (Kevin Barry) has Shumenov throwing a ton of weaker punches per round.
This is most likely one of the biggest factors that causes Shumenov to gas. Shortly into the second Campillo fight, Shumenov evidently gassed badly and was unable to do much of anything inside the ring, let alone win rounds (legitimately) against Campillo.
After only a few rounds, Shumenov was resorted to throwing his classic, powerful bombs for 30 seconds, and then noticeably slowing down to a crawl for the rest of the round.
On top of his stamina issues, Shumenov also has weak boxing ability and some of the worst defense I have ever seen.
Beibut has somewhat slow hands and feet, but his head is always frozen in place and his hands do nothing to help defend shots. Shumenov can and will take virtually everything his opponent throws at him, and during the second Campillo fight I thought Campillo was going to stop Beibut!
Beibut Shumenov and Kevin Barry is not a good match, and there is no question in my mind that Shumenov has not improved a single iota since joining up with Barry. Now, there is a possibility of Beibut looking better in this fight then against Campillo, but the chances of that I believe are slim. Beibut had such massive, glaring flaws in his game that he would need a lot more then six months to patch them up.
Viacheslav Uzelkov is a relative unknown among the boxing community so far, and this will easily be the biggest fight of his career.
Uzelkov is also a pressure fighter, and one who likes to throw some big shots. His resume is not great, but it isn’t bad either with wins over Alejandro Lakatos, Julio Cesar Dominguez, T. Adamek (Tomas Adamek that is!), and, most importantly, Gabriel Campillo.
Yes, Uzelkov was able to beat Campillo and was the first man to do so. If you thought Campillo won both fights with Shumenov, it could be considered that Uzelkov was the only man to beat Campillo.
In Viacheslav’s fight with Gabriel, Uzelkov was being outboxed for the first couple rounds but after warming up was able to get to Campillo more and more each and every round. In the sixth, Uzelkov landed a single right hand that basically knocked Campillo out cold and nearly through the ring ropes.
Viacheslav Uzelkov is not a terrible fighter, but it isn’t very good either. I would say he is decent, and that his biggest strength lies in his punching power and surprisingly impressive foot speed.
Like Shumenov, Uzelkov suffers from some moderately slow hands, but his power is pretty good and of all the names I listed above, Uzelkov was able to stop all of them with the exception of Lakatos.
The biggest issue that plagues Viacheslav Uzelkov is that he is a slow starter, and takes a couple rounds before warming up and getting in his grove. When he gets going, he’s not half bad though.
I feel that Beibut Shumenov is one of the worst prospect boxing has on display in the light heavyweight division. He just isn’t very skilled at all, and with this new style where he (tries to) throw a thousand punches a round diminishes his power as well. And his defense...I cannot stress just how bad his defense is.
Personally, I think Uzelkov is the better skilled fighter overall once he gets going, but I think he’ll have a tough time winning here because I believe Uzelkov can only win by knockout.
Beibut Shumenov is promoted by Goosen Tutor, and is also co-owner with his brother of KZ Promotions. Both KZ and Goosen are putting this card on, and I don’t think they would allow Uzelkov to win a decision against Shumenov.
But, I do think there is a very good possibility of Uzelkov getting that needed KO. He has more then enough power in my opinion (Campillo hurt Shumenov!), and the punches that Shumenov takes (every punch the other guy throws) will give Uzelkov plenty of opportunities to land something big and put Beibut away.
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Uzelkov By KO {+200}
Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Uzelkov By KO {+200}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .50 Units On Uzelkov By KO {+200}
D3: .50 Units On Uzelkov By KO {+200}
Fight Junkie MMA
Strikeforce Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Kaufman opened the contest as the betting favorite and the lines have not moved a whole lot, with Kaufman resting at –410 and Modafferi sitting at +315.
This will be Sarah Kaufman’s first defense of her welterweight title that she just won after beating Takayo Hashi five months ago in a fight for the then vacant title.
Sarah Kaufman started her career out with eight straight stoppages, and has since gone 3-0 in Strikeforce. All of whom were beaten by unanimous decision in relatively one-sided contests.
As you can see from Kaufman’s record, she is a striker but a real good striker at that. Kaufman has had great success in her career with her superior striking ability, and her boxing (her strikes) are very good, even when compared to the men of Strikeforce.
Kaufman has one weakness currently, and that is when the fight hits the ground. However, it is difficult to get it there because most of Kaufman’s opponents are unable to get through her impressive takedown defense.
Her competition has also been pretty solid lately as well, with wins over Miesha Tate, Shayna Baszler and, obviously, Hashi.
Roxanne Modafferi is a really unknown name, even amongst the relatively small woman’s MMA pool of fighters. This will be Modafferi’s return to Strikeforce after a one-fight stint back in November of 2009 that ended with her getting submitted by Marloes Coenen in one round.
Despite 10 decisions wins, Modafferi is mostly a striker and that’s what she does the majority of the time during her fights; she just has no power!
Striking wise, I think Modafferi is OK. Not great, but she does strike relatively straight and keeps a decent guard. I can see how she would be liable to ending up on the ground though, as she doesn’t seem to have the posture or leg strength to defend takedowns all that well.
But, even though Modafferi can hold her own in the stand up there is no question that Sarah Kaufman is the better striker of the two. Kaufman’s striking is pretty much some of the best amongst the woman’s welterweight division (135 pounds).
Since I suspect this will be a stand up fight, because Modafferi does not ever attempt to take the fight to the ground, Kaufman should be able to defend her newly won title in an essentially easy fight.
Roxanne poses little threat in the stand up because she is not a takedown specialist (if Miesha Tate could not take Kaufman down, Modafferi is not going to be able to even if she tried...which she won’t), and even if she did get it to the ground, she has little submission ability. On top of all that, she has virtually no power.
Sarah has gone to decision in her last three fights (all against previously stopped opponents, one of whom was stopped by a woman with 3 knockouts in 18 wins!), and I feel this is because Kaufman is a bit worried about finishing an opponent and getting caught in something. Having won the championship, I feel this adds a bit of pressure to keep her undefeated streak going.
As well, Roxanne has never been stopped in her five losses, and it looks to me that she seems somewhat durable.
Not that it really matters though, considering there are no prop lines for this fight, but I suspect that Sarah Kaufman will win another very easy, one sided decision to retain her belt.
While Kaufman’s number is quite high, personally, I thought Kaufman would be a bigger favorite then she is.
Krakrabbit: 4.10 Units On Kaufman {-410}
Boxeo: 4.10 Units On Kaufman {-410}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 4.10 Units On Kaufman {-410}
D3: 4.10 Units On Kaufman {-410}
Fight Junkie Boxing
Aussie Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Green opened as the large betting favorite in the bout and money has been trickling in on him since his line opened. Currently he sits as high as -800. Briggs supporters can snatch the plus money +550. The over/under for the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over getting you +135, while the under comes in at -165.
Danny Green is just one fight removed from the biggest win of his career by far over future Hall of Fame inductee and living legend Roy Jones Jr. in December of 2009. In his fight with Jones, which only lasted two minutes, Green was able to land a right hand (that arguably landed behind Jones’s head) that made Roy’s legs disappear. Green was eventually able to stop the fight shortly after the knockdown.
Green’s comparably long lasting most recent fight was against small name fighter Manny Siaca three months ago in his hometown of Perth, Australia.
Against Siaca, Green was easily able to control the fight and eventually was able to catch Siaca with a right hand and drop him in the second round of their contest. In the third round, Danny put Siaca down for a second time after a combination (and a little added right hand while Siaca was on the canvas), and Manny stayed down for the count.
That, I feel, is the first thing I should bring to your attention about Danny “Green Machine” Green. The guy is the definition of a dirty fighter, and can and will use any and all methods to cause some extra damage to you inside the ring.
In just the Siaca fight alone, Green was allowed to get away with rabbit punches, holding down the head and hitting, and holding one of Siaca’s arms and hitting him. Not to mention the occasional (I cannot tell if they were intentional or not) headbutt.
Danny Green is indeed a rough fighter, and loves to use his rough tactics more then anything else. If he can get to his opponent, his inside game is very difficult to defeat and also, obviously, is very effective. In fact, Green has even been disqualified because of his dirty boxing (against Markus Beyer).
Aside from the roughhouse tactics that he uses on a consistent basis, Green can simply just punch like a mule, particularly with his right hand. He has stopped many a fighters with his right hand, including Roy Jones Jr., and has knocked out seven of his last eight opponents, all except one within five rounds.
For how strong Green is though, he is not invincible and certainly has vulnerabilities. For one, the guy is quite slow! Danny can punch for sure, but he has slow hands and his feet are not that much quicker then his hands are.
As well as that, he can be outboxed (because of his slow feet I presume) and also has sub par defensive skills inside the ring. No matter what you think of Danny Green, everyone knows that he is a strong, offensive fighter. If you can survive his punches, you will probably outbox him, but unfortunately for Green’s opposition they can rarely even make it to the halfway point of the fight.
Paul Briggs, also an Aussie, will be making a comeback after a massive 41-month layoff that has lasted over three years!
Before his retirement (thought to be brought on by health concerns), Briggs did not do a whole lot in his career aside from two very close fights with Tomasz Adamek, both of which ended in Majority Decision (Briggs lost both fights).
His fights with Adamek were really Briggs’ claim to fame, as other then Adamek, Paul had not fought nor beaten many big names at 175-pounds.
Back in the day when Briggs used to still fight, he was mostly a come forward fighter who liked to back you up before throwing his punches, but as a whole I have not been that impressed with his skills.
Paul did not throw a lot of punches even when he fought actively, and covered up a bit too much for my liking. As well as that, he also got tagged with the right hand too often, and, like Green, suffered from slow hands.
Personally, I think it was Adamek not keeping with gameplan to outbox Briggs in both fights, because it is evident that Tomasz, even back then when Adamek had less boxing ability then he does now, that if Adamek would have kept moving around his slower opponent, he would have been able to win one sided decisions in both fights.
I think Briggs’ style fits perfectly into Green’s, because Briggs likes to come forward and get hit with the right hand, and is most likely too slow to outbox Danny Green, even if he tried (which he wouldn’t).
I feel this is probably just another fighter for Green to feast on to stay active while he awaits a bigger name fight, and everything in this fight favors Danny.
Not only does the location favor Green even though Briggs lives in Australia (I believe the referee will allow Green to use whatever tactics he wants), but the biggest thing Green has going for him is that he is not coming off a 3-year plus layoff, unlike Briggs!
Even when Paul was still fighting actively and didn’t have possible underlying health issues, I think this would be a pretty easy fight for Green. But with the massive amount of time Briggs has taken off, I think Green is going to have a very easy time with the “Hurricane”.
I suspect that even an extremely durable fighter like Briggs will end up folding under Green’s rough inside game and powerful right hand, most likely sometime before the seventh round. Though I would not be surprised to see Briggs go down quicker then that if the time off affects him in a very bad way, which is entirely possible.
In fact, I personally believe the extended time off will show itself during the fight for Briggs. Paul Briggs weighed in for this fight at a mighty 192.5 pounds for this fight and in my opinion it is evident that Briggs was not able to train as properly for this fight.
Briggs says that his increased weight is because the weight limit for this fight was 200 pounds (Green weighed in at 184), but I find that hard to believe.
It is far more likely that Paul had an extremely difficult time cutting weight at this point in his career after such a long layoff, and if he cannot even cut weight properly after so much time, there is nothing to suggest Briggs’ skills won’t be affected for this fight as well.
I think Briggs will try to be game, and he will hold a significant weight advantage over Danny Green, but I suspect that Green will be able to get to Briggs and wear him down possibly quicker then I originally expected.
Krakrabbit: 4.95 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {-165}
Boxeo: 3.30 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {-165}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.65 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {-165}
D3: 1.65 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {-165}
Fight Junkie Boxing
HBO Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Angulo opened as the huge favorite in the fight and now sits at around -850 at most books. Currently, you can score +575 on Joachim.
The O/U on the bout is set at 8.5 rounds, with the opening lines coming in at +125 for the under and –105 for the over. Those lines have now flip-flopped and at some books the under is even wider at –140! Angulo by KO comes in at -200, while Angulo by decision will reward you with +320. Alcine by KO hits the mark at +1255, and Alcine by decision lands at +799. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +4500.
Alfredo Angulo is hot off a highlight reel knockout of Joel Julio three months ago in his hometown of California.
In Angulo’s last fight, it was clear from the first bell that Julio was looking to survive and go the distance with El Perro.
After stalking him for 11 rounds, Angulo was finally able to connect with a huge right hand and put Julio down. After Julio got back up on shaky legs, the ref waived the fight off.
Alfredo Angulo is a strong, powerful, pressure fighter that will constantly walk towards his opponent and look to knock their head off every time he throws a punch. Thus far in his career, he has only suffered a single defeat at the hands of Kermit Cintron, but Angulo could very well have been suffering from a sickness going into the fight.
Angulo likes to brawl, nothing much more to it. The guy walks forward and throws. He isn’t a boxer, he isn’t a mover, and he doesn’t have very good defense, but he does possess some solid attributes that have brought him success so far.
For starters, his footwork is pretty good and he has surprisingly quick feet. He was able to run down Joel Julio, and whenever others try to run from his he is usually able to catch up to them.
As well, obviously, as his record suggests, Angulo is a hard hitter. The guy has some Class A dynamite in his gloves, and he likes to use it. With 15KOs in 18 victories, it is evident that Alfredo has enough power to stop a lot of guys in the super welterweight division, assuming he can land a solid left hook or right hand.
In addition to that, he also has very good body attack that, given some time, can quickly wear down and slow his opposition.
Now, for everything Angulo does well (hitting people!), he is not flawless. Alfredo can be outboxed, but so far it really hasn’t happened aside from the Cintron fight, and Angulo is a tough guy to outbox because you can’t run from him for long and when he hits his opponent it rocks them to the core.
As well as that, he also is easy to find. His defense is not very good at all, but he is extremely tough and has a very good chin to boot. It’s a question how long he can keep up this hit and be hit style, but at the age of 27 with only 19 fights under his belt, I’m not too worried about his chin going.
Joachim Alcine is also coming off a win in his last fight over French nobody Christophe Canclaux seven months ago in his native Canada.
In his fight with Canclaux, Alcine was able to control the fight with his boxing ability and outpoint Canclaux on his way to a one sided unanimous decision win.
This will be only the second time Alcine will be fighting an elite level fighter, and last time his attempt at stepping up in competition did not go so well.
Back in 2008, just two fights after upsetting the then undefeated champion Travis Simms, Alcine put his title on the line and faced off with Daniel Santos.
Alcine and Santos were fighting a somewhat close, competitive fight when, in the 6th round (Alcine was trailing by one point on all three cards at the time of the stoppage), Santos landed a classic one-two combination and sent Alcine to the mat. Alcine was unable to get back up off the canvas.
The punch that sent Alcine down was not extraordinarily hard, and it didn’t even look like Santos was throwing it with knockout intentions. It just happened to catch Alcine and Joachim never recovered from it.
Joachim Alcine holds a very impressive 32-1 record, but upon closer inspection you will see that Alcine has only fought solid competition a handful of times. First, he fought and beat Travis Simms (who, really, was never an elite level guy) and Daniel Santos. Other then that, you will see a whole lot of nobodies that fought Alcine in his backyard in Canada.
Skill wise Joachim Alcine isn’t bad, but I’ll let it out now that I think he’s pretty ordinary.
Alcine is a boxer for the most part, but he doesn’t exactly have some of the basics of boxing quite down.
First off, his stance sometimes is wider then the Grand Canyon, which severely limits his movement. I feel this will make trouble for him if he can’t move away from Angulo fast enough.
Another thing I believe will cause some problems for him in this fight is, frankly, his style. Alcine likes to either stand and fight or come forward, and neither will work against Angulo, especially considering Alcine has little power in either hand.
But, the most important thing I noticed about Alcine is that he has a tendency to cover up, and also has a habit of getting hurt sometimes. Now, every fighter gets hurt at sometime or another (well, except Angulo as of yet), but I have seen Alcine react badly to some punches from significantly lighter punchers then Alfredo Angulo.
Personally, I think this is a mismatch of a fight and an extremely easy one for Alfredo. This is a great style match up for him, and he will be to take advantage of every one of Alcine’s flaws and imperfections.
If Alcine wants to stand, he will get tagged. If Alcine wants to come forward, he will get tagged. If Alcine wants to run (which I suspect he can’t do considering his wide stance), Angulo will catch him, and, you guessed it, tag him.
The most likely scenario for this fight is that Alcine comes in trying to box and move and use his jab a bit, but Angulo will quickly find the range and start teeing off on his severely overmatched opponent.
As I mentioned, Angulo has massive power, and couple that with Alcine’s suspect chin and you get a quick fight. I would be surprised to see Alcine go 6 rounds, even if he ran, ran, ran as fast he can; which is exactly why I’m taking the under 8.5 rounds instead of Angulo by KO. If Angulo lets Alcine go to the ninth round, it will have been a very bad performance in my opinion.
Krakrabbit: 5.00 Units On Under 8.5 Rounds {+125}
Boxeo: 4.00 Units On Under 8.5 Rounds {+125}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.00 Units On Under 8.5 Rounds {+125}
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 8.5 Rounds {+125}
Fight Junkie Boxing
HBO Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Bradley opened the contest as the big betting favorite and the lines have moved very little. Currently, you can get him at -850. Abregu supports get the underdog cash at +600. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at +140 and the under at -160.
Bradley by KO comes in at -130, while Bradley by decision will reward you with +170. Abregu by KO hits the mark at +700, and Abregu by decision lands at +1419. The odds of the fight being declared a draw sit at +4000.
Timothy Bradley will be coming into this fight riding a streak of about five solid wins over very quality opponents over the course of the last three years, and now Bradley will be facing off with another worthy foe in Luis Carlos Abregu.
Timothy has been facing off with solid opposition like Kendall Holt, Nate Campbell, Edner Cherry, Junior Witter and Miguel Vasquez.
Bradley’s last fight was one of the easiest of his last five though, as he easily dominated highly regarded prospect Lamont Peterson seven months ago in his usual fighting venue, California.
Tim Bradley is now making the move up to welterweight, but it sounds as though it is only for this fight. Bradley has stated that he is going to move back down to 140 pounds and clear up what’s left of the division there before moving on. Why? I don’t know, I don’t think anyone does but Desert Storm himself.
Bradley has been coming along and improving as a fighter as the years go by, but as a whole I don’t think he’s improved his pure attributes a great deal.
Back in the day, Tim Bradley was a come forward, in your face, pressure fighter who loved to brawl with his opponent despite his lack of power. Bradley also liked to wear his opponent down with his superior condition and punch output.
But, if you look at Bradley now you will see that he has altered his style and opted to become a boxer. Ever since the Nate Campbell fight, Bradley has been trying to use his boxing ability instead of his pure pressure fighting ability. Personally I believe Bradley did this because he did not want to engage in a toe-to-toe war with a powerful fighter like Campbell, but honestly that’s beside the point and has little to do with this fight.
As far as his boxing skills go, Bradley is...OK. There is no way he will ever be a great boxer though, because he is very short and has pretty short arms (only 69’ inch reach) to go along with his small stature.
Tim likes to use his jab to set up the right hand, and while he does have some success with it, like I said, he isn’t an amazing boxer and likely never will be. I believe Bradley’s best skill is when he is coming forward and throwing two thousand punches a round.
Bradley is somewhat quick, and that does usually help him out in his fights though, but I suspect that he isn’t quite as fast as Luis Carlos Abregu is.
In addition to that, Tim can punch somewhat with the right hand, but overall he doesn’t hit very hard. He was unable to stop or really even hurt Kendall Holt, and even though he dropped Lamont Peterson, he wasn’t able to finish the job there either. In fact, Bradley has not scored a knockout since April of 2007, and that was against a guy who has been stopped in all seven of his losses!
On the other side of things, Bradley has his fair share of flaws. He can most definitely be outboxed (Kendall Holt won every round where he threw more then two punches!) because of his short reach and sub par boxing ability, and his chin is somewhat iffy as well.
Again going back to the Holt fight, Kendall was able to drop Bradley twice in that fight (once early in the fight, once late in the fight), and that’s not the only time Timothy has been stunned in his career.
Luis Carlos Abregu is also coming off a win and is also undefeated. In his last action packed fight, Abregu decision-ed veteran Richard Gutierrez in a ten round fight five months ago in Mexico.
In his fight with Gutierrez, Abregu and his foe were going at it from the starting bell. Abregu was dropped in the second round, and Gutierrez was dropped in the third round!
I feel that’s one of the first things I should point out; Abregu has a habit of going down at some point in his fights. Don’t get me wrong, the guy isn’t glass jawed, anyone can knock him out, kind of guy; he just tends to get hit and go down.
Think of it like Felix “Tito” Trinidad syndrome. Most of the time when Abregu goes down, he quickly recovers and it usually only takes a few second for him to do so.
Luis Carlos Abregu skill wise is actually quite good though, and I have been impressed with him from what I have seen.
Abregu is pretty quick (probably a bit quicker then Bradley overall), has good defensive head movement (although, as we know considering he gets dropped, its isn’t always flawless!) and very good boxing ability and foot movement.
The guy is a natural boxer/mover, and has the feet to satisfy his urge to move around his opponents.
However, even though Abregu is a boxer does not mean he can’t punch, because he can, and he can punch pretty hard to boot! Abregu has stopped 23 of his 29 opponents, and to show what kind of power he has Abregu was able to keep the solid chinned Gutierrez (who has only been stopped by Alfredo Angulo) on very wobbly legs for most of the third round.
Luis Carlos is not bad technically as well, and he throws a strong (albeit a little wide sometimes) right hand and some pretty good bodyshots as well when he decides to hit downstairs.
Stylistically, I think...well, I think Abregu is much better then to be an almost 6-1 underdog against Timothy Bradley.
Abregu is slightly quicker, is the better boxer and also possesses a few natural size advantages as well. Abregu will have a 4’ inch height advantage, a 3’ inch reach advantage and will also just be the naturally bigger guy as he is a true welterweight, whereas Bradley is kind of small for 140 pounds.
Speaking of size advantages and disadvantages, Bradley will also have to feel what its like to be hit by a real 147 pound fighter who can punch very well for welterweight standards. I’m quite sure that Abregu has the power (especially in his right) that if he can land cleanly on Timothy he will be able to stun, drop, or possibly stop Bradley.
One thing though, I fear that Abregu will have to win by knockout if he is to win. This fight will be taking place in California, an infamously shady state when it comes to Californian boxers fighting in California.
Timothy Bradley has had 23 of his 26 fights in California (!) and that includes the very shady call in the Nate Campbell fight. California loves their native fighters, and I have a feeling that when it comes down to it, “they” will be more then willing to give a disadvantage to the Argentinean fighter.
Like I said, Luis Carlos Abregu is pretty good and stands a very good shot at winning this fight, especially if Bradley tries to outbox him despite being the shorter guy and less skilled boxer. If Bradley tries to outbox him, Abregu could bank a good amount of rounds.
If Bradley makes too many mistakes as well, Abregu has more then enough power to at least send him to the canvas.
It all comes down to whether or not Abregu has to win via knockout to walk away with his unbeaten record, and for that answer I cannot be sure. I really lean towards Abregu having to knock Bradley out unless he puts on an absolute clinic and possibly also adds in a knockdown or six to secure the close victory (its not funny really, that we bettors have to account for a robbery while capping a fight).
Personally, I think IF (and that’s a bit if) Bradley wins, it will be by decision. He can’t punch at light welterweight, and is moving up in weight fighting a guy significantly bigger then him.
I think Abregu can win either way if it was on the up and up, but adding into the California factor, I suspect that Abregu will have to stop Bradley to return to Argentina the victor. I think that is very possible though, and Abregu has a good chance of putting himself on the map with a knockout win over Timothy Bradley.
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Abregu By KO {+700} & 1.00 Units On Bradley By Decision {+170}
Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Abregu By KO {+700} & 1.00 Units On Bradley By Decision {+170}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .50 Units On Abregu {+600} & .50 Units On Bradley By Decision {+170}
D3: .50 Units On Abregu {+600} & .50 Units On Bradley By Decision {+170}
Fight Junkie Boxing
Showtime Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Guerrero opened the contest as the betting favorite and the lines have not moved much for the most part. You can Guerrero at -400. Smith supporters get the underdog cash at +325.
The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -425 and the under at +340. Guerrero by KO comes in at +511, while Guerrero by decision will cost you -185. Smith by KO hits the mark at +692, and Smith by decision lands at +555. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +2500.
This will be Fernando Guerrero’s biggest fight of his young career when he steps up in competition and faces off with Ishe Smith for the vacant title bout.
Guerrero is coming off another easy stoppage victory over no-hoper Chicago native Michael Walker three months ago.
Fernando Guerrero is a pretty unknown fighter right now, and he falls into the “I don’t know that guy but he has a flashy record” category. Thus far in his career, he has been going toe-to-toe with basically bums or no name fighters.
Guerrero’s best competition has come from Gabriel Rosado (who dropped him in the fight and lost a very close decision) and Ossie Duran, who was also credited with a knockdown, and who also lost a close decision to Fernando.
Fernando Guerrero...well, let me put it this way. He isn’t exactly a world-beater, and I think I know why he struggled so heavily against Rosado and Duran.
Guerrero likes to charge forward throwing a lot of heavy punches and putting most everything he’s got into said strikes, but as far as skill goes he isn’t at the top of the pyramid.
First off, Guerrero can be vulnerable to getting hit and doesn’t have a very good offense. I guess this can be attributed to his high punch output, as you can’t defend punches and throw at the same time (ask Paul Williams, who throws but doesn’t defend or Floyd Mayweather Jr., who defends but doesn’t throw).
Secondly, despite having 15 knockouts in 18 wins, I think his power is overrated. His KO record looks flashy, but he doesn’t punch as hard as his record may suggest. While not stopping Duran is not anything to be ashamed about, he was also unable to really hurt Gabriel Rosado, who’s chin is not all that strong. If Guerrero punched as hard as his record said he did, he would have been able to stop Rosado instead of barely winning the fight.
Thirdly, Fernando is mostly a one trick pony. He comes forward, he throws punches, and that’s about it. He can be outboxed, and the only reason he does not yet have a defeat on his record is because of his competition’s inability to take just a couple more rounds. Ossie Duran is very beatable and almost did it (on the cards!), and Gabriel Rosado is the same story and nearly beat Fernando (on the cards!).
Ishe Smith is himself coming off a decision loss to another up and coming prospect, Daniel Jacobs 11 months ago in Texas.
In his last fight, Smith was able to hurt Jacobs and at some points during the fight nearly put the undefeated fighter away, but was unable to do it. After losing a point and dropping some key rounds, Smith ended up losing the unanimous decision.
The one and only reason Ishe lost the fight is because of his lack of punch activity. Smith is another guy with good talent, but he just doesn’t let his hands go enough.
Ishe Smith has quick hands, good foot movement, isn’t bad defensively, has some impressive boxing ability and when he throws could be a challenge to anyone, but frankly, the guy doesn’t throw enough punches.
Of the two in this match up, I think it is evident that Ishe Smith is the much more talented boxer and has many more facets to his game then Fernando Guerrero does, but the more skilled one isn’t always the one who wins.
Ishe Smith always vows to let his hands go more, but he just has an inability to do so and it looks bad in the judges’ eyes. Daniel Jacobs would have gotten owned if Ishe had thrown more punches throughout the fight, but didn’t and as such dropped the decision against the less talented, beatable fighter.
If you look back on Ishe Smith’s record, you will see that all of his losses have come via very close decision, in fights that were very winnable for him.
Fernando Guerrero is the undefeated guy here, the “up and coming prospect” in the middleweight division, and the more exciting fighter whereas Ishe Smith is the no-power boxer who doesn’t throw enough punches.
As well as that, Guerrero will also be fighting on home turf on Friday night in Mississippi. Fernando has had 13 of his 18 fights in either Maryland or Mississippi.
I feel Ishe Smith has a shot in this fight, simply because he is the better fighter here. He has some offensive problems, but there’s no doubt that he is better then Fernando Guerrero.
I also believe that Sugar Shay can win a decision, even in Mississippi (Duran and Rosado almost did in Maryland, Guerrero’s residence), but it won’t be easy. He will need to put on a boxing clinic against Guerrero and do so well the judges couldn’t give it to Guerrero.
However, I suspect that while Ishe may have his moments (most likely when he’s letting his hands go!), that Guerrero’s high punch output will look better to the judges. There is no way Fernando is stopping Ishe Smith, but I do expect Smith to drop another close decision that can only be blamed on his lack of activity.
Krakrabbit: 1.80 Units On Guerrero By Decision {-180}
Boxeo: .50 Units On Smith {+325}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: N/P
D3: N/P
Fight Junkie Boxing
ESPN2 Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Judah opened the contest as the significant betting favorite but the books quickly adjusted that number, knocking Judah down to a –620 favorite. Santa Cruz supporters get the underdog cash at +472.
The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over coming in at +105 and the under at -115. Judah by KO comes in at -155, while Judah by decision will reward you with +263. Cruz by KO hits the mark at +1256, and Cruz by decision lands at +632. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +4000.
This will be first fight of 2010 for “Super”, and only two fights removed from his latest defeat at the hands of title challenger Joshua Clottey way back in 2008. Since his loss to Clottey, Judah has been able to string together two one sided victories, one of which came by stoppage.
Zab Judah has always been an up and down kind of fighter, sometimes boxing beautifully and really showcasing his ability, and other times...well, lets just say other times we have seen the “down” side of him.
What is often considered to be the main reason for Zab’s inconsistency is his out of the ring habits. Partying, drinking, and going to the clubs were once (not to long ago) a lifestyle for Judah, but word coming out of Judah’s camp is that the old party freak Zab Judah is dead.
It appears, if Judah’s camp is to be believed, that Zab has discovered newfound dedication and is looking to make one last run at the title before hanging them up.
Zab Judah, for all of his problems, has always been a very good fighter. He is extremely quick, and also has a good amount of pop when he fires off his straight left hand. As well as that, his boxing ability is also quite good, and it has always been evident that he has a load of talent that may or may not be extinguished at this point in his career. His chin has also been decent. Not great, but decent enough to go 11 rounds with a prime Miguel Cotto.
Judah has always had one big problem though; his stamina! Zab always predictably fades after about six rounds, and from that point on he tends to both lose the rounds and slow down as a whole, losing too much of his slickness and getting hit a bit too much. In fact, without fading I feel that Judah would have been able to beat Joshua Clottey, who was losing the fight in my opinion up until Zab’s fade around the midway point of the fight.
In addition to all of that, Judah has also been fighting the cream of the crop in competition from 140 to 147 pounds. Junior Witter, Mickey Ward, Miguel Cotto, Carlos Baldomir, Cory Spinks, Chop Chop Corley, Kostya Tszyu, Joshua Clottey and Floyd Mayweather Jr. all dot Judah’s star studded resume.
As for his opponent, Jose Armando Santa Cruz is really nothing to phone home about.
First off, the guy is very, extremely, super......slow! Jose Armando is just a slow fighter, and there is no way this guy will be able to compete with Judah in the speed department.
Speaking of slow, Jose Armando also has very slow (well, really no) head movement. He plods forward behind a somewhat weak guard, doing little else but getting hit.
Which brings me to my next point; he doesn’t throw many punches! The guy walks forward all the time, and even though he always marches forward and gets hit, he doesn’t let his hands go very often. He seems more then happy to get beat up as he walks forward doing nothing.
The most important thing to note though is Santa Cruz’s chin, which has been shown in the past to be very shaky. He has been stopped in three of his four losses, two of which came at the hand of David Diaz and Fernando Trejo (both light hitting fighters, especially Trejo).
Now granted Santa Cruz was ahead on all three cards before getting stopped by David Diaz, but that’s not my point. My point is that he was stopped by David Diaz (Santa Cruz was Diaz’s only knockout in his last nine fights).
Zab Judah and Jose Armando Santa Cruz is a showcase fight for Judah, without a single hair of doubt. This is a fight that is meant to show off Judah’s talents, and that’s exactly what’s going to happen on Friday night.
Zab will be able to land at will, land anything he wants, and I doubt he will get hit with more then a handful of punches as well. The gap in skill and speed is massive here...Judah is like a Ferrari going up against a Ford Pinto. There is no chance that the Pinto will pull off the upset and beat out the Ferrari.
I personally believe that the talent gap and speed difference will play a huge part in the fight, allowing Judah to tee off on Santa Cruz anytime he lets his hands go, and I suspect that Jose Armando will be stopped before the end of the sixth.
Krakrabbit: 2.30 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {-115}
Boxeo: 2.30 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {-115}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.15 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {-115}
D3: 1.15 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {-115}
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Recent Record
- Boxeo: + 13.41 Units
- KrakRabbit: + 26.27 Units
- Doody: + 9.38 Units
- Grass Hopper: - 1.74 Units
- D3: + 9.38 Units
