Fight Junkie

UFC 143 Predictions
By Krakrabbit

Saturday night on UFC 143, MMA fans will be treated to a welterweight fight when Nick Diaz, (26-7, 13KO‘s, 8 Submissions) battles Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit, (27-5, 13KO’s, 13 Submissions) from the Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada.

Diaz has opened the contest as the clear favorite in the fight, and the money has moved back and forth slightly since opening. Currently Diaz rests at around -180 and Condit at +150.

The Will Go/Won’t Go on the bout is set at 3 rounds, with the Will Go coming in at +135, and the Won’t Go at -175. Diaz ITD (Inside The Distance) comes in at +157, while Diaz by decision will get you +212. Condit ITD hits the mark at +252, and Condit by decision lands at +600. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +7000.

Nick Diaz is just over three months removed from a successful win in the UFC in his return to the organization after almost five years out of the UFC. Diaz defeated well respected veteran BJ Penn at UFC 137, winning a unanimous decision.

Nick battered Penn on the feet over the course of the fight, avoiding Penn’s sloppy takedown attempts and stunning the durable Hawaiian multiple times as well, eventually earning himself the clear decision win.

The victory marked the 11th in a row for Diaz over the span of three years and four different MMA organizations. Nick has been able to amass a ton of credible wins over the course of his career, but just recently Diaz has dismantled fighters like Frank Shamrock, Scott Smith, KJ Noons and Paul Daley.

Those wins have not come due to luck though, and Diaz has fought very hard to earn every one of his victories. Nick Diaz is renowned for his physical attributes, attributes that have paved the way for a very successful career in MMA.

While he doesn’t look it, Diaz is an exceptional athlete through and through who possesses both an insane work ethic and incredible conditioning, not to mention a cast iron chin. Nick’s style revolves around throwing an endless stream of punches at his opponent and waiting for them to wear down and eventually fall.

Because of his unprecedented workrate, Diaz sacrifices any use of defense inside the cage. Nick happily eats everything his opponent dishes at him, but fortunately for him, Nick has unbreakable will and an extremely tough chin. Diaz has been hurt many times in the past, even knocked down, but he has unbelievable recovery skills that allow him to come back after getting buzzed exceptionally quickly.

As well as that, Diaz is also a pretty hard puncher. Although his style does rely on wearing his opponent out, Nick is a decent one-punch hitter and has scored a number of early stoppages in his career. At the very least, it is not common for his opponent to see the third round, as they are often well worn out by the second frame.

Nick is not defensively sound, but he throws straight punches and enjoys using crippling bodyshots to break down his opposition, and as you can plainly see from his record, his style works remarkably well for him.

However, Nick is not a simple brawler although that is his preferred style. Diaz has very poor, practically nonexistent takedown defense, and because of his lack of wrestling ability Diaz has been forced to refine his grappling skills. Always the one to surprise a fighter, Diaz also holds a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and brings a unique skillset into the grappling game.

Nick fights well from the top position, but is rarely put there due to pitiful takedown skills. Fortunately Diaz does fight very well off his back and is actually one of the best grapplers in the UFC when it comes to fighting off of his back.

Diaz has a very active and extremely deadly guard that has allowed him to secure submission wins over well respected grapplers such as Hayato Sakurai and Evangelista Santos, just to note a couple.

Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit is also riding a solid win streak, having won his last four fights in the UFC including victories over Jake Ellenberger and Rory MacDonald. A WEC veteran, Carlos Condit is surprisingly experienced despite being only 27 years old, and has been in with some of the best the sport has to offer.

Condit’s resume is littered with powerful wrestlers, submission artists, big punchers and longtime veterans. Recently though, Carlos is 4-1 in the UFC and his last two fights have ended with highlight reel knockouts over Dan Hardy and Dong Hyun Kim.

Like his opponent Diaz, “Natural Born Killer” is a well-rounded athlete that has refined a number of his skills over the years. First and foremost, Condit is a striker and on the feet is where Carlos prefers to reside.

Condit is an excellent and very dynamic striker who excels at kickboxing. Carlos has quick hands and massive punching power in both hands, as well as great technical skills to complement his natural abilities. Condit is very smooth on the feet and in addition to his sharp punches; Condit also has strong kicks in his arsenal that he has used in the past against fighters like Dong Hyun Kim, whom he knocked out with a flying knee.

As well as his striking skills, Condit is also a very good grappler. Like Diaz, Condit has practically no takedown defense but although he is only a Purple Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Carlos fights exceedingly well off his back, doing a great job of controlling his opponent. Not only that, but Condit is ever improving when it comes to busting out quick sweeps and submissions off his back.

However, Carlos’ best work is done from the top position. Condit is a pretty good wrestler, although he lacks formal credentials and is a devastating fighter from the top position. Owning some of the strongest ground and pound in the UFC, Condit throws a volley of elbows and short punches when on top and has big power to back up his ground and pound.

Condit has been submitted three times in his career and I have little doubt that Diaz is the better pure Jiu-Jitsu fighter, but I feel that Carlos has made big improvements in his submission defense and overall grappling ability over the years. It has been almost six years since Condit was last submitted, and since that time Carlos has visibly evolved as a grappler, seldom even getting threatened with submissions.

Both of these fighters have fantastic conditioning, great chins, strong Jiu-Jitsu skills (particularly off their back) and enough heart and determination for ten typical fighters, but I have a feeling this fight will solely come down to a striking war.

Nick Diaz will undoubtedly be looking to impose his will on Condit over the course of the fight with his relentless pace and high punch output, whereas I suspect Carlos will be forced to counter punch and strategically move around against Diaz.

The question in this fight, as with most Diaz bouts, is whether or not Diaz will wear out his opponent over the five round distance. He has been able to do it against many, many fighters, but this time around I think he will find that he is facing off with a fighter that nearly mirrors him in the conditioning department.

Carlos will have to fend off volleys of punches from Diaz, but I expect Condit to have a lot of success on the feet with his own attacks. Kicks should easily land against Diaz, and anything Condit throws should crash home cleanly on Nick’s chin.

Condit is the technically superior fighter who, I feel, has significantly bigger one punch knockout power and I think his chin, and equally importantly his conditioning, can hold up to an extended war with Nick Diaz.

Not only that, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Condit shooting for, and accomplishing, the occasional takedown attempt, perhaps near the end of a round. I do not think it would be wise for Condit to get into a prolonged grappling match with Diaz, even from the top position, but Carlos should be able to get the fight to the ground whenever he needs breather.

It will not be an easy fight for either fighter, no matter who walks away as the winner, but I wouldn’t write off Condit’s chances here. If he does not fatigue, he could badly bust up Diaz with hard, clean shots on the feet. I won’t go so far as to suggest a stoppage win over Diaz, but maybe, just maybe, Condit can do what few others have done and outstrike the Stockton native for as long as the fight lasts, pulling off a deceivingly large upset.

Krakrabbit: 2.00 Units On Condit {+190}
Boxeo: 3.50 Units On Won’t Go Five Full Rounds {-175}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 3.50 Units On Won’t Go Five Full Rounds {-175}
D3: 3.50 Units On Won’t Go Five Full Rounds {-175}

UFC 143 Predictions
By Krakrabbit

Saturday night on UFC 143, MMA fans will be treated to a heavyweight fight when Roy “Big Country” Nelson, (16-6, 9KO’s, 5 Submissions) battles Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum, (14-5-1, 4KO’s, 8 Submissions) from the Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada.

The lines opened at nearly identical lines for both fighters but the odds have since drastically changed, with floods of cash coming in on Werdum. Currently Werdum sits as the favorite at around -150 with Nelson getting the underdog money at +120.

The Will Go/Won’t Go on the bout is set at 3 rounds, with the Will Go coming in at -140, and the Won’t Go at +100. Werdum ITD (Inside The Distance) comes in at +258, while Werdum by decision will reward you with +165. Nelson ITD hits the mark at +309, and Nelson by decision lands at +338. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +6000.

Fabricio Werdum will be returning to the UFC on Saturday night after being away from the organization for nearly three years. Since exiting the biggest MMA promotion in the world, Werdum has fought four times in Strikeforce, amassing a 3-1 record with impressive wins over Antonio Silva and Fedor Emelianenko.

Werdum is just over seven months removed from his first and only defeat during his time with Strikeforce, having lost a unanimous decision in a rematch with Alistair Overeem. Fabricio had plenty of success on the feet, cleanly hitting his bigger opponent multiple times but his striking success was overshadowed as he attempted to pull guard countless times throughout the fight.

Fabricio does not have a very long resume, but the names on said resume are quite monumental. Sergei Kharitonov, John Olav Einemo, Alistair Overeem (twice), Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Gabriel Gonzaga (twice), Brandon Vera and Junior Dos Santos can all be seen on Werdum’s list of opponents, and Fabricio defeated the majority of them.

“Vai Cavalo”, as his record plainly shows, is a submission artist who rarely goes to the judges’ scorecards. Werdum is a very accomplished grappler whose credentials are quite impressive.

A 2nd Degree Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Werdum has defeated many outstanding grapplers in both competitions such as the legendary ADCC Submission Wrestling competition (Werdum won ADCC twice and placed in the top 3 five times) and in MMA.

Fabricio is a very well rounded grappler who excels at fighting both from the top position and off his back. Exceptionally quick at sinking in submissions, Werdum is a serious threat anywhere on the ground and is widely and justifiably revered for his grappling skills.

Werdum is also a Black Belt in Judo and is a pretty solid fighter within the clinch, especially when it comes to takedowns. Fabricio lacks real wrestling ability, owning both poor takedown defense and sloppy double leg takedowns, but is often able to get his opponent down via the clinch.

You will not often see him busting out flashy throws, but Werdum is very effective with simple trips from the clinch and the success of his MMA career speaks for itself, considering Fabricio is not an impressive striker.

“Vai Cavalo” has light punching power and perhaps most significantly a weak chin. Werdum has been stunned and knocked down multiple times in his career but there have been multiple instances where his opponent will attempt to finish him on the ground, only to walk into a submission or a sweep.

Only once has Werdum been knocked out cleanly, by Junior Dos Santos, without being afforded the opportunity to lure his opponent into the spider’s web that is his guard.

Werdum is not a terrible striker technically, and the threat of his grappling game makes his opponent’s hesitant to throw wild punches at him, but it is clear that by far the most likely path to victory for Werdum is by taking the fight to the ground, one way or another.

Unlike Werdum, Roy “Big Country” Nelson is only months removed from a victory in which Nelson was able to score a big knockout over Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 137. Nelson was in some trouble early in the second round but persevered as he typically does and secured his own stoppage only a minute into the third frame.

The win broke a two-fight losing streak for “Big Country” that was brought on by Junior Dos Santos and Frank Mir, both of whom beat Nelson by unanimous decision. In both fights, Nelson did little to deserve a win but Roy did claim to be badly sick in his fight with Mir. Although unconfirmed, I do believe Nelson looked worse than ever against Mir.

The popular Roy Nelson began his career as a grappler but has been known as a striker for years now, and has actually become a very well rounded fighter. First and foremost Nelson possesses very solid, albeit underutilized grappling skills and is particularly good at advancing his position on the ground and running over his opponents from the top position.

Nelson fights fairly well off his back, but that is not where he excels. He can manage to avoid taking a beating but is not exactly the most agile fighter when put on his back and rarely does more than keep from getting badly beaten or submitted.

On the feet Roy has seen marked improvement over the years and is actually a feared puncher these days. Nelson has a trademark wide right hand that he uses as his biggest weapon on the feet, and it is shockingly effective.

Even though Nelson’s right hand looks like nothing more than a looping haymaker, Roy throws it at such an angle that he his right hand crashes home at a surprisingly high accuracy rate. Not only does he land the punch though, but “Big Country” also packs a wallop in that right hand, having knocked out numerous fighters with that punch alone.

As well, despite his globular and somewhat famous midsection, Roy has a deceivingly large gas tank. Nelson has very solid conditioning and at this point of his career it is rare to see Nelson huffing and puffing, even in the most grueling of fights.

On a related note, Roy Nelson is one of the most durable fighters in the heavyweight division. Nelson has a chin made of granite and an abundance of heart and willpower, having been in with big punchers but always persevering. The only stoppage loss of his career came against Andrei Arlovski in a fight that Nelson took on very short notice, and was badly fatigued at the time of the knockout.

With that said, Nelson is going to be walking into this fight with a pretty significant cut over his left eye that has already been visibly stitched up. I highly doubt it will be wide open on fight night (the commission would not let Nelson fight with a pre-sustained severe cut), but there is a very good chance that Roy will be wearing a crimson mask at some point of the fight.

He is not a defensive wizard and while I see no way Werdum could knock out Nelson, the cut is not going to help matters.

In any case, I can see either fighter walking away with the victory in this contest, but I have a feeling Roy Nelson is the more well-rounded fighter in this match up. “Big Country” is the superior wrestler and likely the stronger fighter, and barring quick and sneaky clinch takedowns from Werdum, I doubt Nelson will be forced to fight off his back in this contest.

Nelson is also clearly the superior striker, despite his seemingly one-handed style of striking. I also feel that Roy will be able to take Werdum down, if he so chooses, and should have enough grappling ability to avoid getting caught in a submission.

I don’t expect Nelson to end the night early, but a striking-oriented match with Nelson defending any takedowns and outstriking Werdum to a decision is probably the most likely, although, considering Roy’s big punching power I wouldn’t completely rule out a stoppage.

Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Nelson {+140} & .50 Units On Nelson ITD {+309}
Boxeo: .50 Units On Nelson ITD {+309}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .50 Units On Nelson ITD {+309}
D3: .50 Units On Nelson ITD {+309}

UFC 143 Predictions
By Krakrabbit

Saturday night on UFC 143, we are treated to a middleweight bout between Ed “Short Fuse” Herman, (22-9, 6KO’s, 14 Submissions) and Clifford Starks, (8-0, 3KO’s, 1 Submission) live from the Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada.

Herman has been installed as the betting favorite and some cash has been flowing in on him since his line opened. You can get Herman at around -250 while Starks backers can score +200.

The Will Go/Won’t Go on the bout is set at 3 rounds, with the Will Go coming in at +150, and the Won’t Go at -190. Herman ITD (Inside The Distance) cost you -117 while Herman by decision will reward you with +265. Starks ITD hits the mark at +465, and Starks by decision lands at +491. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +7500.

Ed Herman is coming into this fight off two big wins in his career, having scored two successful stoppages after taking nearly two years off due to injuries. Herman made his first comeback against Tim Credeur, knocking Credeur out in only 48 seconds. Unsatisfied with that short bout, Herman faced off with Kyle Noke two months later.

Herman was again able to end the fight in the first round, this time sinking in a Heel Hook on Noke and forcing the tap after four minutes of action.

Ed is a very experienced fighter and has been in with a number of mid-level fighters and contenders over the course of his career. Herman struggled quite a bit earlier in his career, losing to unimpressive competitors such as Joe Doerksen and Kendall Grove but has been a little more successful lately, going 3-2 in his last five outings (with losses to Aaron Simpson and Alan Belcher).

As you can see from his record, Herman excels particularly at grappling and has not made much of a name for himself as far as knockouts go. “Short Fuse” is a pretty solid wrestler who can be crafty with clinch takedowns, but is an even more well-rounded grappler when the fight hits the ground.

Herman is a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and fights quite well even when put on his back. From the top position Ed is also pretty deadly, but when Herman is put on his back he does a good job of avoiding damage and staying active off his back.

Ed throws up submissions often when put on his back and has found a home for sinking in Armbars over the course of his career. Herman has been submitted five times, three times by Triangle Choke, a particularly weakness for him in the past, and if you actually look at his career you will see that, technically, sometimes Ed fights better off his back then he does from the top position!

Herman does not offer much on the feet, throwing fairly wide punches that, truthfully, do not have a lot of power behind them. Ed is no slouch on the feet, but against the upper echelon he has been, and will be, outstruck soundly.

On the other end of the spectrum, Clifford Starks is fighting for only the second time in the UFC in his ninth bout as a professional. Starks made his UFC debut as a late replacement against Dustin Jacoby, defeating Jacoby by unanimous decision, putting on a strong wrestling performance.

Starks has faced off with extremely limited competition in his short career and the biggest name on his resume is undoubtedly Jacoby, whom Starks faced off with three months ago. In fact, the combined records of Starks’ opponents (prior to Jacoby) end up being a dreadful 18-16. Oddly enough, a few of Starks’ past foes often fight at 200+ pounds as well!

Little is known about this UFC newbie, and the only information regarding him aside from his MMA bouts is that Starks is a former Division I wrestler at Arizona State, and was a teammate of heavyweight Cain Velasquez.

Starks uses his wrestling as his primary weapon inside the cage, and Clifford rarely chooses to stand and bang with his opponents unless he feels completely safe. More than often though, Starks will rush out of the starting gate and shoot for a double leg takedown.

I will admit that Clifford looks to be a pretty decent wrestler, at least against his bottom-of-the-barrel competition, but he is immensely inexperienced in every aspect of the sport. Not only that, but I suspect that if forced to stand and trade or fight off his back, Starks would look like a fish out of water.

Starks may be a young fighter, but I am fairly unimpressed with him. He has shown next to no striking skills in his MMA career and even from top position, Starks fails to do much more then lay on top of his opponent and thrown somewhat soft ground and pound.

I suspect that Clifford will not know what to do when put in the cage with the vastly more experienced veteran that is Ed Herman. Herman has grappled with and submitted much better fighters then Clifford Starks, and I highly doubt Starks will be able to avoid tapping at some point in this fight, even from the top position.

Of course, that is assuming Starks is even able to take Herman down. An underrated wrestler himself, there is a chance that Ed defends against Clifford’s takedown and, possibly, puts his young opponent on his back.

In any case I don’t see much of a chance that Clifford Starks will be able to avoid a submission for three full rounds. Herman is a skilled Jiu-Jitsu practitioner and if he were unable to submit a fighter of Starks’ level, I believe that would be a devastating and somewhat embarrassing loss in the career of “Short Fuse”.

Krakrabbit: 6.00 Units On Herman {-200} & 2.34 Units On Herman ITD {-117}
Boxeo: 5.85 Units On Herman ITD {-117}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 2.34 Units On Herman ITD {-117}
D3: 2.34 Units On Herman ITD {-117}

UFC 143 Predictions
By Krakrabbit

Saturday night on UFC 143, MMA fans will be treated to a bantamweight fight when Renan “Barao” Pegado, (27-1, 6KO’s, 13 Submissions) faces off with Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen, (13-4, 2KO’s, 4 Submissions) from the Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada.

Pegado opened the contest as the significant favorite and the only money coming in on the fight has been on the favorite with Pegado currently sitting at -260 and Jorgensen at +200.

The Will Go/Won’t Go on the bout is set at 3 rounds, with the Will Go coming in at -180, and the Won’t Go at +140. Pegado ITD (Inside The Distance) comes in at +178, while Pegado by decision will reward you with +148. Jorgensen ITD hits the mark at a high +900, and Jorgensen by decision lands at +270. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +6000.

Renan Pegado is riding one of the longest unbeaten streaks in MMA history, having not tasted defeat in his last 26 bouts, and winning 25 of his last 26 outings (one of those fights ended in a No Contest).

Pegado has been facing off with mostly unimpressive competition on local circuits, typically in Brazil. However, Pegado has added some of the biggest names of his career when competing in the WEC and most recently the UFC.

Although still nothing spectacular, Pegado has faced his most accomplished opponents such as Chris Cariaso, Cole Escovedo and Brad Pickett in the past year. Renan is not a well-known fighter despite his incredible record, but does possess a pretty well rounded skillset.

A Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, “Barao” is quite adept at grappling in general. Pegado fights well from the top position and when an opportunity presents itself Pegado can be lightning quick to capitalize on it.

Renan is rarely put on his back, but from what I’ve seen he fights fairly well, throwing up some decent submissions off his back. Of course, as with most grapplers, he fights much better from the top position then when forced to grapple off his back.

Pegado has also been working on his wrestling and is improving in that department as well. “Barao” is getting increasingly more effective with takedowns from the clinch, and his double leg is decent as well. I am not overly impressed with his traditional takedown attempts (double and single legs), but his clinch takedowns can be very sneaky and effective.

In addition to that, the fighter commonly referred to as Renan Barao has also been rapidly improving his striking skills. Pegado can get a little careless on the feet, occasionally getting tagged cleanly, but Renan has fairly quick hands and throws pretty technically sound punches. Renan has also found a home kicks in his arsenal, which mix things up nicely on the feet.

Scott Jorgensen is also coming into this contest off a victory having won his last two fights decisively against Ken Stone and as of three months ago Jeff Curran, bringing his UFC record to a perfect 2-0.

Jorgensen outwrestled Curran with ease, taking down “The Big Frog” repeatedly and avoiding all of Curran’s sweep and submission attempts, however narrowly, throughout the bout. Jorgensen is 7-1 in his last eight fights, having only suffered defeat once in the past two years at the hands of bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz.

Scott is a Division I wrestler and that is what you will see utilized most over the course of a Scott Jorgensen fight. “Young Guns” is not a bad wrestler at all, and has a pretty sharp double leg takedown that he consistently uses.

As well, Jorgensen also fights well from the top position, rarely getting put in bad positions. Scott is not incredibly active from the top though, and can occasionally get a little too passive when in an advantageous position, leading to seven decision wins in his relatively short career.

Unfortunately, wrestling and top control is the only area where Jorgensen excels. “Young Guns” is not a good striker, not only throwing inaccurate punches on the feet but also maintaining a surprisingly low punch output.

Scott does not pack a big punch and if he is unable to take a fighter down, or simply insists on trying to use his striking, you will see that Jorgensen is easily defeated. In fact, most of Jorgensen’s losses have been brought on by the fact that Scott is unable, or unwilling, to take the fight to the ground.

Although this is a relatively small bout on Saturday’s UFC 143 fight card, I think this could be a very interesting contest. Renan Pegado will be able to prove himself as being a part of a higher echelon of fighter if he is able to defeat Jorgensen, and I expect him to do just that.

“Barao” is not an elite wrestler or an elite striker, but I think he can utilize both skills to keep Jorgensen on his toes. If the fight stays on the feet I have little doubt that Pegado will have the clear advantage, but the bigger question in this fight is whether or not “Barao” will be able to avoid repeatedly getting taken down.

If Pegado is forced to fight off his back, I think he will be able to get back to his feet but I highly doubt he will seriously threaten with submissions or sweeps.

However, Renan is a fairly solid defensive wrestler, and I think he has the ability to defend against Jorgensen’s takedowns. I am not certain that he will be able to put Jorgensen on his back, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibly of a clinch takedown getting “Young Guns” down.

I like Renan Pegado has a great chance to get some exposure on Saturday night with an impressive performance against Jorgensen, who is a decent fighter but truthfully is no better than a mid-level competitor. If Renan is unable to beat Jorgensen in some way, likely by decision, I would be quite surprised.

Krakrabbit: 5.10 Units On Pegado {-205}
Boxeo: 2.05Units On Pegado {-205}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 2.05Units On Pegado {-205}
D3: 2.05Units On Pegado {-205}

UFC 143 Predictions
By Krakrabbit

Saturday night on UFC 143, MMA fans will be treated to a featherweight fight when Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier, (11-1, 5KO’s, 4 Submissions) battles Max “Lil’ Evil” Holloway, (4-0, 1KO) from the Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada.

Poirier opened the contest as the large betting favorite in the fight but the lines have not moved much since opening. Poirier is sitting at around -425 while you can get Holloway at around +360.

The Will Go/Won’t Go on the bout is set at 3 rounds, with the Will Go coming in at +155, and the Won’t Go at -195. Poirier ITD (Inside The Distance) cost you -145 while Poirier by decision will reward you with +245. Holloway ITD hits the mark at +585, and Holloway by decision lands at a large +770. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +7000.

Dustin Poirier has come a long way since making his WEC debut back in August of 2010, losing a disappointing decision to Danny Castillo. Since that loss, the only of his career, Poirier has run through his competition, winning four straight bouts.

Poirier’s last three fights have been contested in the UFC and Dustin has managed to secure a perfect 3-0 record in the organization. Nearly three months ago Poirier faced off against the experienced Pablo Garza in what ended up being a very impressive performance that ended with Poirier sinking in a fight ending Brabo Choke.

“The Diamond” has been rapidly improving since his only defeat and in every aspect it is easy to see marked improvements since 2010. Poirier is naturally more talented in grappling, having grappled very successful early in his career, but his striking and overall submission ability has come along very nicely.

Dustin has a rangy style from the southpaw stance on the feet, but has impressed me with his clinch skills, particularly in the Muay Thai clinch and can occasionally throw devastating knees in the clinch. Aside from that, Poirier throws nice straight punches that are deceivingly powerful, as evidenced by his fights with Micklewright and Garza (both of whom he either knocked out or stunned on the feet).

Poirier has also been working on his grappling skills and despite only holding a Purple Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu has the capability of pulling out some slick submissions on the ground. Dustin is not an elite level grappler yet, but he fights quite well from the top position, even adding solid ground and pound into his arsenal while on the ground.

If anything, Dustin’s biggest flaw comes into play when Poirier is put on his back. “The Diamond” throws up decent submissions off his back with his long legs but has had trouble seriously threatening with submissions when taken down.

Max “Lil’ Evil” Holloway is making his UFC debut on Saturday night despite being a shockingly inexperienced fighter. Holloway only engaged in four professional bouts although to his credit, Holloway was a champion in the X-1 organization, beating the very experienced Harris Sarmiento in his third fight.

Holloway most recently defeated Eddie Rincon by decision a few months ago but to be honest, Sarmiento is by far the biggest name on this young fighter’s resume. It is to be expected considering the slight amount of professional experience, but it puts him at a real disadvantage going into his very first UFC bout.

Stylistically Max is easy to read, and if you have only seen one fight of his you aren’t missing anything. Holloway is most comfortable on the feet and I believe that is a pretty good striker, albeit one with serious strengths and weaknesses.

Holloway’s style on the feet revolves around outworking his opponents with lightning quick flurries, coming forward and relentlessly letting his hands go. At times, Holloway can even be likened to a prime Vitor Belfort in the way that he flies forward throwing a barrage of punches.

With that aggression and speed, Holloway gives up defensive skills though and has been tagged cleanly on the feet in the past. Fortunately for Max, he has not faced any big punchers thus far in his career but against a higher level opponent, Holloway could easily get stunned while in the midst of his own combination.

I also cannot help but question the conditioning of Holloway. Max is not a big puncher and has already gone to three decisions in his career, but I am not sold on his ability to unleash large amounts of punches in the later portion of a fight. He was able to secure a decision victory due to his work in the later rounds against Sarmiento, but was looking pretty tired in the fight before getting a second wind.

However, while Holloway is a pretty solid striker and a very quick one at that, he seems very hesitant to go to the ground. I have seen Max ground and pound his opposition, but he lacks submission ability and just seems uncomfortable on the ground as well. I have no doubt that if put on his back or if he were forced to grapple with a higher level of opponent that Holloway would fall apart.

“Lil’ Evil” is not a bad fighter at all and I think there is potential in him, but at this point of his career it seems to me that he is at a huge disadvantage against Dustin Poirier. Poirier is the significantly more experienced fighter who has been in with bigger punchers, better wrestlers and much more threatening grapplers.

Holloway may have some success on the feet, but I doubt he will dominate Poirier in striking exchanges. Poirier is not as fast as Holloway but is more technically sound and will have a big edge if the fight heads into the clinch.

If the fight hits the ground in any way, I have little doubt that Poirier will make quick work of Holloway. I anticipate watching Max Holloway develop as a fighter as he becomes more well-rounded, but unfortunately I fully expect him to be soundly defeated, and likely submitted, in his UFC debut.

Hopefully Holloway will get another shot in the big show if he loses to Poirier though, due to his inexperience and coming into this contest as a late replacement.

Krakrabbit: 7.80 Units On Poirier {-390} & 1.45 Units On Poirier ITD {-145}
Boxeo: 19.50 Units On Poirier {-390} & 4.35 Units On Poirier ITD {-145}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 7.80 Units On Poirier {-390}
D3: 7.80 Units On Poirier {-390}

Germany Predictions
By Krakrabbit

Saturday fight fans will be treated to IBF cruiserweight title fight when veteran Steve “USS” Cunningham, (24-3, 12KO’s) faces off with Yoan Pablo Hernandez, (25-1, 13KO’s) from Fraport Arena, Frankfurt, Hessen, Germany.

Cunningham opened as the very slight favorite in the fight, and the lines have been mostly stagnant. Cunningham now sits at around -135, and currently you can score +110 on Hernandez.

The over/under for the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over costing you -195, while the under comes in at +150. Cunningham by KO comes in at +260, while Cunningham by decision will get you +183. Hernandez by KO hits the mark at +347, and Hernandez by decision lands at +266. The odds of the fight being declared a draw sit at +2500.

Steve Cunningham will be rematching Yoan Pablo Hernandez after their first fight ended in controversy in Hernandez’s backyard of Germany. Cunningham was knocked down and nearly stopped in the first round and likely lost the second round, but was clearly the winner of rounds 3, 4, and 5.

The fight was stopped on a cut sustained by Hernandez in the sixth round and while that was a small cause of the controversy (the cut was not that bad), the scoring is what made fight fans throw up their arms in protest. The fight was declared a Technical Decision win for Hernandez by the surprisingly wide scores of 59-54, 58-55 in favor of Hernandez, and one judge scoring the fight 57-56 in favor of Cunningham.

Undoubtedly due to the influence of the bout being held in Germany, Cunningham got the raw end of that decision. Fortunately Cunningham has been granted a rematch and they will do battle again on Saturday, once again in Germany.

Cunningham is a veteran of the sport who has been in the ring with a number of recognizable fighters such as Krzysztof Wlodarczyk (twice), Marco Huck, and Tomasz Adamek, and for the most part has been successful in his career.

Steve’s style is best described as boxing, and his insane 82’ inch reach immensely helps him box his opponents. Cunningham is a solid, fundamentally sound fighter with a strong, stiff jab and a long right hand that he often drops behind it.

Steve is not a big puncher but has good technical skills and despite being a boxer, he fights fairly well coming forward as well (largely due to his reach, which still allows him to stay on the outside).

However, Cunningham has a few flaws that have kept him from true stardom, with the biggest those flaws hiding right under Cunningham’s nose...literally! “USS” Cunningham has a weak chin and he has been hurt numerous times and knocked down countless times over the course of his career.

Steve has never been knocked out and fights with a lot of heart in the ring, but doesn’t recover very quickly and his tendency to hit the canvas has caused issues for him on the judges’ scorecards in the past.

As well, Cunningham is not a very big puncher; although he does throw some strong bodyshots to make up for it and was really finding a home with his work downstairs against Hernandez in their first bout.

Yoan Pablo Hernandez is, of course, four months removed from his first fight with Cunningham that was stopped in the sixth round.

Hernandez has come a long way since getting knocked out by Wayne Braithwaite nearly three years ago, and I feel he is a much improved fighter. The Cuban born native of Germany is pretty solid technically and has heavily refined his defensive skills in the years since suffering his first and only loss.

Yoan Pablo does not overly use the jab, but does possess a powerful left hand from the southpaw stance, in addition to a strong right hook. Hernandez actually throws strong and surprisingly quick combinations inside the ring.

As far as his defense goes, Hernandez has adopted the “earmuffs” style of defense. Yoan Pablo does not constantly keep his hands up, occasionally leading to getting caught by surprise, but most of the time Hernandez does a good job of blocking most of the incoming damage.

That is fortunate, considering Hernandez’s less-then-stellar durability. Yoan Pablo does not have the most reliable chin, and does not recover well once hurt. As well as that, I have had questions about his conditioning and on more than one occasion I have seen Hernandez fatigue pretty badly.

Yoan Pablo is a perfectly acceptable fighter, but he has some resilience issues and perhaps stamina troubles as well. At the very least, I witnessed Hernandez fatigue fairly severely in the later rounds of his fight with Cunningham, after getting hit with some clean bodyshots.

I am not thrilled with this bout being held in Germany once again, where Hernandez will undoubtedly enjoy an advantage should any opportunity be given to favor Yoan Pablo, but I think Cunningham has a great chance to walk away with the victory this time around.

“USS” Cunningham is the better conditioned fighter and I think that if their first fight was allowed to continue, Steve would have easily pulled away in the fight and possibly stopped Hernandez.

Yoan Pablo has shown the capability to badly hurt Cunningham, but I have a feeling Steve will be better prepared for Hernandez’s quick combinations and heavy left hands this time around, having already faced him for six full rounds.

If Steve Cunningham is able to avoid getting thumped cleanly and knocked out within four rounds or so, I suspect he should be able to outlast Hernandez quite easily after that point. Barring odd circumstances that allow Hernandez to walk away with the win again, I doubt Cunningham will be robbed of victory once again.

I am not certain Cunningham can end the fight, but I think that over the 12-round distance Steve might be able to seriously wear out Hernandez with bodyshots and by making Hernandez miss his powerful combinations, and possibly force an end to the bout before hitting the judges’ scorecards.

Krakrabbit: 2.70 Units On Cunningham {-135} & 1.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160}
Boxeo: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 2.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160}
D3: 3.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160}

HBO Predictions
By Krakrabbit

Saturday night fight fans will be treated to WBC middleweight title fight when Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., (43-0-1, 30KO’s) faces off with veteran Marco Antonio Rubio, (53-5-1, 46KO’s) live from Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas.

Chavez Jr. opened as the clear favorite in the fight but money has only been coming in on the underdog. Currently Chavez Jr. sits at around –350 at while you can score +290 on the underdog Rubio.

The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -130 and the under at -110. Chavez by KO comes in at +150, while Chavez by decision will get you +144. Rubio by KO hits the mark at +405, and Rubio by decision lands at +1000. The odds of the fight being declared a draw sit at +3000.

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is nearly three months removed from a TKO victory over Peter Manfredo Jr. in Texas. Manfredo came into the fight with a very bad gameplan, attempting to bang with Chavez and was punished pretty severely for it.

Julio Cesar dominated the fight from the opening bell and managed to stun Manfredo in the fifth round, forcing the referee to intervene. Although the stoppage was regarded as early by many fight fans, Chavez did look impressive in the bout and the win marked the first knockout for Chavez since moving up to 160 pounds.

The son of the legend has been putting together more notable wins since moving up to middleweight and there is no question that Chavez’s best victories have come at 160 pounds. Julio Cesar is still unbeaten in his professional career but his recent performances against Sebastian Zbik and John Duddy were very impressive.

Having met success through the majority of his career due almost entirely to his name, Chavez has been looking like a much improved fighter in his recent outings. Under the tutelage of Freddie Roach, Julio Cesar has added some solid boxing into his arsenal and most of the time managed to fight as a much more intelligently.

The lanky Chavez has a strong jab and underrated technical skills, and is also an excellent brawler. Julio Cesar has been justifiably criticized for his defensive skills but possesses good offensive tools inside the ring.

Chavez lacks punching power when fighting at middleweight, as evidenced by his multiple decisions at 160 pounds and his occasional trouble making the weight doesn’t help either. However, he is a devastating body puncher and is actually a very strong inside fighter.

Thus far in his career Julio Cesar has displayed a durable chin, having only been stunned a handful of times but it goes without saying that most of his competition has been pretty limited. As a whole though, I have been impressed with Chavez’s improvements in the past two years and I firmly believe that Chavez is putting together some of the best performances of his career.

Marco Antonio Rubio is also riding a big win streak, having won his last ten fights, most recently stopping the infamously durable Matt Vanda in five rounds.

Aside from his solid 10-fight win streak that includes wins over Rigoberto Alvarez and undefeated fighters Wilson Santana and David Lemieux, Rubio has also won nine of those ten bouts by knockout.

Marco Antonio is a real veteran of the sport and has been in with a number of contenders and champions such as Kassim Ouma and Kelly Pavlik. Rubio has not fared well against the highest level of opponent, but has carved out a very glossy record for himself against mid-level fighters and up-and-comers.

Rubio is a pretty fundamental fighter who doesn’t do anything flashy but typically gets the job done. He possesses a solid one-two, a combination he uses constantly, and has strong punching power to complement his technical abilities.

For the most part Marco Antonio is a more aggressive fighter who likes to come forward and let his hands go, but there have been instances in the past, however rare, where Rubio will go backwards and make his opponent chase him.

In spite of his record, Rubio is actually a fairly durable fighter who has been able to avoid getting KO’d by most of his opponents. For the most part only top tier fighters or those with huge punching power have been able to stop him, and defensively Marco Antonio is pretty sound.

I have seen Rubio’s vulnerabilities on display multiple times in his career, but one way or another he usually ends up walking away with the win. His competition for the most part has been somewhat limited though, aside from the occasional prospect or former champion.

This fight poses a lot of interesting questions, and most of those questions regard the favorite in this contest, Julio Cesar Chavez. Marco Antonio Rubio will undoubtedly be the biggest name and the best fighter Chavez has ever fought, and I think this bout is going to prove a lot one way or another.

Rubio will be coming into this fight looking to win and knock down another rising star, whereas Chavez might finally be able to stifle some criticism with a convincing win.

I am not certain of Chavez’s abilities yet, that is what this fight is for, but I do think he has the skill necessary to hand Rubio another defeat. Julio Cesar is the faster, fresher fighter who, I feel, is the significantly superior boxer. Rubio on the other hand is the bigger puncher and I doubt he will be stunned by Chavez’s shots, no matter how clean.

I think it would be unwise for Chavez to engage in a slugfest with Rubio and I highly doubt his trainer will let him do so. I expect Julio Cesar to come out of the starting gates boxing and moving and utilizing his superior reach. Marco Antonio will, I’m sure, be hoping to land something big on his younger opponent and put his lights out.

There will be a constant danger for Chavez considering his lack of defense, but if he boxes cautiously I think he can avoid getting put to sleep with the big right hand of Rubio.

I doubt that Chavez will be willing to run around the ring for the whole fight and I expect him to fall into pockets of brawling but for the most part I actually suspect Chavez will look pretty good in this fight, eventually winning a clear decision that did not come easily.

I am not thrilled about Chavez being forced to pull out the towel at the weigh-ins in order to make the 160 pound limit, but I don’t think he looked too bad and hopefully it will not affect the bout at all.

Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Chavez By Decision {+144}
Boxeo: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.00 Units On Rubio {+360}
D3: 1.00 Units On Rubio {+360}

ESPN Predictions
By Krakrabbit

On this week’s edition of Friday Night Fights we are treated to a light heavyweight bout between Isaac “Golden Boy” Chilemba, (18-1-1, 9KOs) and hard hitting Edison Miranda, (35-6, 30KOs) live from the Texas Station Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada.

Miranda opened as the slight favorite in the fight but inexplicable amounts of money has flowed in on Chilemba, completely reversing the lines dramatically. Chilemba now sits at around -600 while you can currently score +400 on Miranda.

The O/U on the bout is set at 8.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -125 and the over at +105. Miranda by KO comes in at +407, while Miranda by decision will reward you with +552. Chilemba by KO hits the mark at +135, and Chilemba by decision lands at +171. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +2250.

Isaac Chilemba is coming into this fight on slightly short notice, filling in for Miranda’s original opponent Yordanis Despaigne who pulled out of their February 3rd rematch. Chilemba has won his last three fights including a close decision win over Maxim Vlasov which was shown on a previous episode of Friday Night Fights.

Isaac has not had an easy career, suffering a loss very early in his career, fighting to a draw in South Africa a little over a year ago and struggling heavily against Vlasov. Chilemba has managed to earn a big fight with Miranda though in what is undoubtedly the biggest fight of his career.

Chilemba is, stylistically, a slight mix between a boxer and a brawler but if given the chance is not shy to letting his hands go in a slugfest. Isaac has somewhat slow foot speed and is not really a great boxer, but brawls fairly well despite his lack of punching power.

“Golden Boy” throws pretty tight punches, even when fighting on the outside but as I mentioned is not a very quick fighter and is simply not a very agile boxer. While Chilemba is a decent slugger and one who doesn’t turn down a battle in a phone booth, Isaac has shown a vulnerability to getting hit with right hands.

The orthodox fighter seems to be a sucker for right hands and while he typically only gets hit cleanly with them; Maxim Vlasov did manage to score a hard knockdown in the eighth round with a right hand.

Edison Miranda competed very recently, December of 2011 in fact, in a successful bout against Kariz Kariuki that lasted only five rounds in what was a one-sided affair. Miranda is 3-2 in his last five bouts including the unpopular DQ loss to Despaigne, but hasn’t been looking too bad lately.

Since the move up to light heavyweight Miranda outpointed a journeyman, battled Despaigne in a decent performance and then blasted out Kariuki. Edison is a very experienced fighter that most fight fans will be familiar with at this point of his career.

A wild swinging brawler, Miranda likes to let his hands go with haymakers and hope that one of his punches land on his opponent’s chin. Edison is not a boxer, nor does he counter punch, but he possesses big knockout power, particularly in his right hand, and up until recently in his career was pretty durable.

Edison was never a world-beating fighter and I do feel that he and his chin are well outside their prime, but Miranda’s style and strengths remains unchanged.

Quite honestly I am alarmed at the sudden and dramatic movements in the betting lines for this contest, and I have no idea why so much money has been coming in on Chilemba, who opened as the underdog.

Putting that aside though and assuming Miranda is not hindered in some way that explains the swing of the betting odds, I feel “Pantera” has a great shot in this fight. Edison is still a big puncher even at this point of his career and his best punch is his right hand, a shot that Chilemba has had trouble with in the past.

I doubt Chilemba will be able to hurt Miranda or keep him from coming forward, and as a matter of fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chilemba willing to get into a slugfest with Miranda. Edison is the bigger puncher and the more experienced fighter, and I very much like his chances to secure a big knockout on Friday over Issac Chilemba.

Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Miranda {+400}
Boxeo: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.00 Units On Miranda {+400}
D3: 1.00 Units On Miranda {+400}