ESPN Classic Predictions
By Boxeo
Saturday afternoon we are treated to a heavyweight title bout between heavy-handed knockout artist Wladimir Klitschko, (52-3, 46KOs) and undefeated heavyweight Ruslan Chagaev, (25-0-1, 17KOs). Live from the Veltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany.
Klitschko opened as the clear favorite in the fight but as soon as the line was posted public money poured in on him, shooting the line from the –500 range all the way to –800. Currently, you can score a respectable +550 on the underdog Chagaev.
The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +115 and the over at -145. Klitschko by KO comes in at -130, while Klitschko by decision will reward you with +180. Chagaev by KO hits the mark at +800, and Chagaev by decision lands at +1394.
The Wladimir Klitschko V Ruslan Chagaev bout came together in a very strange way. Chagaev was scheduled to face off with heavyweight giant Nikolay Valuev in a rematch of their 2007 contest that saw Chagaev come away with the majority decision victory.
However, in the final hours before the rematch was to commence, the entire fight card was scratched when it was discovered that Ruslan Chagaev had tested positive for the Hepatitis B virus!
This set off a change of back and fourths between the two camps, with team Chagaev insisting that Chagaev is just “a healthy carrier of hepatitis antigen with constantly normal liver enzymes” however, the Valuev camp and his promoter Don King wanted no part of Ruslan Chagaev’s explanations for the positive test and immediately petitioned the WBA to strip Chagaev of his title belt and award it to Nikolay Valuev.
Just recently The American Association of Professional Ringside Physicians recommended that the Klitschko V Chagaev bout be cancelled due to the medial issues surrounding Chagaev.
The AAPRP’s statement:
As it has been reported that Mr. Ruslan Chagaev has tested positive for the Hepatitis B Virus, the American Association of Professional Ringside Physicians (the “AAPRP”) is recommending that the proposed contest between Mr. Ruslan Chagaev and Mr. Vladimir Klitschko be postponed due to medical safety issues.
The AAPRP also recommends that this fight not take place and suggests that Mr. Chagaev not be permitted to fight (anyone) until, and unless, he can demonstrate a “negative hepatitis status.
In several recent media accounts, it has been stated that Mr. Chagaev has a “low hepatitis B viral load” and therefore poses “no risk” of transmitting this dangerous virus. The AAPRP disagrees with this assertion. Although the risk of transmission of the Hepatitis B Virus may be minimal, the risk is not zero. Additionally, given the fact that Hepatitis B is a very virulent virus and easily transmitted, it is even more important to be prudent in order to not only protect Mr. Chagaev’s opponent, but also the referee, judges, sanctioning body officials, cornermen, ringside physicians and ringside observers who may be at risk of contracting this dangerous virus.
As boxing is obviously considered a “blood sport”, it is very common for blood to splatter on the individuals immediately adjacent at ringside. The conjunctiva (eye) route of transfer for this virus is well documented….so any person seated at ringside, who is not immunized, may be at risk.
Furthermore, statistics suggest that if Mr. Chagaev were to share needles with another individual, the transmission rate of Hepatitis B could be as high as 30%. If blood from a cut on Mr. Chagaev were to come into direct contact with a cut on another fighter, the transmission rate could be as high as 10%. Should blood squirt from Mr. Chagaev and hit another individual in the eye (i.e. Judge, referee, cornerman or media) the transmission rate could be as high as 5%. Therefore, the risk is obviously greater than zero and could put others at ringside (beside his opponent) at risk for acquiring this virus.
Unless everyone at ringside (Judges, referees, ringside physicians, commission members, sanctioning body officials, trainers, cornermen, media reporters, ring girls, television technicians, spectators and of course the fighters opponent) has documented immunity to Hepatitis B (a three shot hepatitis immunity vaccination series given over a 6 month period with a subsequent documented blood test confirming immunity), protection against exposure to this dangerous virus cannot be guaranteed.
Finally, if bleeding does occur, the individuals responsible for cleaning the ring as well as those handling the gloves must also be immune to minimize the risk as well.
The American Association of Professional Ringside Physicians considers safety our number one priority and will work with local and international commissions to insure that all precautions are taken to protect all individuals involved in professional boxing.
Of course, Universum sees this matter entirely differently and issued their own statement regarding Ruslan Chagaev’s medical issues (or lack of depending on whom you believe).
Universum Statement:
Repeatingly there is irritating and false information about WBA world champion Ruslan Chagaev in the media. Universum Box-Promotion once again wants to point out the following: Even the Statement of the Association of Professional Ringside Physicians is obviously based on incorrect information.
Universum-Physician Michael Ehnert:
“The American Association of Professional Ringside Physicians states that there is a “low hepatitis B viral load” in the case of Ruslan Chagaev. The facts are there has never been a proof of viruses or HBV-DNA in high sensitive PCR-tests since 2003. After achieving Hepatitis B many years ago Ruslan Chagaev has never been sick due to hepatitis B. He is just a healthy carrier of hepatitis antigen with constantly normal liver enzymes. Infection doesn’t mean illness. According to international expert opinions Ruslan Chagaev is regarded as non-infectious.”
Dr. Heiner Wedemeyer, the Secretary General of the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), involved in several activities of the German Liver Foundation and the German network of Excellence on Viral Hepatitis (Hep-Net), had contacted Universum independently and stated the following:
“Ruslan Chagaev is completely healthy according to the documents. I don’t follow the interpretation of my colleague from the Finnish lab. It was probably done more for legal protection rather than scientific facts. There is no infectivity and Ruslan Chagaev would have without a doubt boxed for the third time without danger. Mr. Chagaev has a completely normal liver function and is not considered to be ill, he is just a bearer of the hepatitis B antigen.”
Wedemeyer, further urged all athletes to exclude the risk of contracting hepatitis with vaccinations.
“We at the Liver Foundation say that every athlete should inoculate themselves against hepatitis and we have already carried out this initiative with the German Olympic team in 2008.”
For his part, Klitschko has always maintained that the bout between Chagaev and Valuev should have been allowed to continue and a simple Hepatitis B immunization by Valuev could have remedied this entire situation.
Klitschko put his money (in this case his health) where is mouth is when his original opponent David Haye was forced to pull out of their fight due to a back injury suffered during training.
The reason I have taken the time to rehash this soap opera is because Chagaev’s medical issues (perceived or real) could have a huge impact on how this fight plays out.
The mere sight of a spec of blood in this fight could send shivers down the backs of everyone involved and instantly be the cause of the bout being called to a halt.
Even if all of this Hepatitis B drama had never started, Chagaev would have had his work cut out for him anyway facing a fighter with such physical advantages over him like Wladimir Klitschko holds.
Klitschko is by far the bigger man standing 6’6 inches tall to Chagaev’s 6’1. Klitschko also brings an impressive 81-inch reach to the dance while Chagaev sports a meager 74-inch reach. Klitschko also outweighs Chagaev by fifteen-pounds.
Now I know all of the Chagaev fans out there are shouting at the top of their lungs “He already beat Nikolay Valuev and that dude stands 7 feet tall and weighs 319 pounds!” True, Nikolay Valuev is bigger and weighs more then Wladimir Klitschko, but to compare the two fighters is doing a severe injustice to Klitschko.
Valuev is slow in both hand and foot speed and his power is nowhere near that of a fighter like Wladimir Klitschko’s. Other then just being “bigger” I don’t see one area where Nikolay Valuev matches up well with Klitschko.
With that said, the one benefit I see that Chagaev holds over Klitschko is the fact that he is a southpaw.
I personally believe that Klitschko is not as comfortable facing southpaws as he is an orthodoxed boxer. Even if you disregard the two round destruction at the hands of Corrie Sanders, the fact remains; Klitschko goes rounds when he squares off with southpaws.
He was forced to go the distance with Chris Byrd when they first fought way back in 2000, and it took him seven rounds of beating on Byrd to get him out of there when they rematched six years later!
We all remember (some would like to forget) his lackluster twelve round snooze fest back in 2008 against Sultan Ibragimov.
Let’s not forget his mediocre performance against southpaw Tony Thompson where he allowed Thompson to remain in the fight all the way until the eleventh round before finally starching his foe.
I remember the fight vividly because I had Klitschko by knockout at –185 odds and I was extremely worried that he was going to let that fight see the scorecards.
Heck, it even took him seven rounds to get rid of the hopelessly faded (orthodox) Hasim Rahman.
The only thing that ever makes a Wladimir Klitschko fight exciting is the fact that he brings his own glaring weaknesses into every bout.
We all know about the constant stamina issue that has plagued Klitschko’s career. Regardless of how muscular and well-conditioned Klitschko appears to the naked eye, it seems whenever he gets into the middle rounds of a fight, he hits an invisible wall and his legs turn to jelly.
I am uncertain if Klitschko is sporting a child-sized pair of lungs, or if he is just so tense and tight that he expends a ton of energy during the early portion of the bout. Regardless of the reason, he has serious stamina issues that must always be taken into consideration when betting on a Wladimir Klitschko fight.
A lot of people point to the chin of Klitschko as his Achilles Heel, but I think it is a lack of stamina that leads to him flopping around the ring like a fish out of water. When you are dead tired any punch from a heavyweight fighter can easily send you flailing around the ring.
Even with all of the question marks that always seem to surround Klitschko when he fights, there is no doubt in my mind that to win this fight, maybe even see the cards, Chagaev is going to need to fight a perfect fight.
I personally believe he should use a similar strategy like the one he was able to execute against Valuev. Granted, we already pointed out that Klitschko is leaps and bounds above Valuev, but Klitschko tends to be overly cautious in his fights and if Chagaev can use the ring and force Klitschko to walk him down he stands a better chance of going rounds.
You see, the reason Ibragimov was able to avoid big shots from Klitschko for twelve rounds was because he had great footwork and fast hands. Klitschko would do the work of walking Ibragimov down but he refused to commit himself once he had Ibragimov trapped.
I can easily envision this fight playing out the same way as the Ibragimov bout, but this time with Chagaev actually throwing punches as Klitschko walks towards him without punching.
The huge question mark for me in this fight is Ruslan Chagaev’s health. I have concerns that he may not even have the legs or stamina to implement a strategy that calls for him to box and move. I know he looked less then stellar four months ago against Carl Drummond, and I think we can all agree that Carl Drummond is no Wladimir Klitschko.
As we touched on earlier, there is also the possibility of Chagaev getting cut in this fight. He was cut over his left eye from a headbutt in his last bout against Drummond. If something like that should occur again, I can’t imagine the ringside doctors are going to be thrilled about letting a fighter with Hepatitis B bleed all over the place with the world watching and waiting to critique their every move.
Quite honestly, blood is the biggest fear I have about this fight not going rounds. If Chagaev gets cut or starts bleeding out of the nose/mouth it is going to be a crapshoot on how everything is played out.
It is also important to note that Chagaev’s corner did a terrible job of stopping the cut and his bout with Drummond was stopped because of it.
With Wladimir Klitschko’s cautious approach to fighting, and Ruslan Chagaev’s boxing ability, I think these fighters match-up well to go some rounds. With that said, if Chagaev gets cut in the fight I have a feeling everyone who took the over or decision props are going to be ripping up their betting tickets.
Boxeo: .60 Units On Over 9.5 Rounds {-120}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Klitschko By Decision {+200}
Grass Hopper: 1.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+115}
Doody: .65 Units On Klitschko By KO {-130}
D3: .60 Units On Over 9.5 Rounds {-120}