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May 8th, 2016

Alistair Overeem V Andrei Arlovski!

By Krakrabbit

Sunday, fight fans will be treated to a heavyweight fight when Alistair “The Demolition Man” Overeem, (40-14, 17KOs, 19 Submissions) battles Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski, (25-11, 17KOs, 3 Submissions) live from the Ahoy Rotterdam, Rotterdam, South Holland, Netherlands.

Overeem opened the contest as the slight betting favorite and the lines have only moved around slightly since opening. Currently, you can get Overeem at roughly -155 while Arlovski supporters get the underdog cash at +145.

The Will Go/Won’t Go on the bout is set at 5 rounds, with the Will Go coming in at +500 and the Won’t Go at -800. Overeem wins ITD comes in at -160, while Overeem by decision will get you a substantial +650. Arlovski wins ITD hits the mark at +200, and Arlovski by decision lands at +1700. The odds of the fight being declared a draw sit at +22500.

Fresh off of three consecutive victories, Alistair Overeem is creeping towards a heavyweight title shot after his most recent win; a finish of the worldwide fan-favorite Junior Dos Santos nearly five months ago. Alistair and Dos Santos were having a somewhat competitive fight, but Overeem closed the curtain late in the second round and actually managed to put away the durable Brazilian brawler.

“The Demolition Man” is no stranger to experience or notoriety in the world of combat sports, being a former K-1 kickboxing Grand Prix champion and owning 40 wins in the sport of MMA. A former PRIDE FC veteran, Alistair has always prided himself (no pun intended) on his crushing punching power and his technically sharp striking prowess but his own fragile chin and poor conditioning inside the cage – or ring – has resulted in him being an exciting, interesting brawler to both watch and wager money on.

Alistair Overeem is a technically superior striker, as you would expect from a man of his exceptional experience level and credentials in striking arts, but his lack of durability has forced him to alter his formerly aggressive style and augment it with increasing caution. Overeem is almost always at risk of being knocked out cold, even in a fight he is winning (see: fights with men such as Antonio Silva and Travis Browne) but it is worth noting that Overeem’s done a much better job of protecting his chin in recent outings than ever before.

Overeem has notched victories in his last three outings despite squaring off with heavy handed fighters due entirely to the fact that Alistair has been competing in a more passive manner. He tends to keep a further consistent distance between him and his opponent, opting to pick apart his opposition from the outside and utilizing his rangy kicks and boxing ability.

Andrei Arlovski is not unfamiliar with being known for his striking prowess though, particularly as Arlovski had been surging in his most recent stint with the UFC, amassing three consecutive wins before falling to Stipe Miocic four months ago.

Arlovski is a boxer at heart and throughout his career has been regarded as a quick, well-conditioned, fairly heavy-handed but extremely weak-chinned brawler. Having been knocked out – typically brutally – on eight separate occasions, the blueprint to defeat Andrei Arlovski is not a complex one; hit him, hope he falls.

In the case of this matchup, former training partners Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski will both be looking to land first and get out of the cage as soon as possible in this contest. Both men have been rocked, dropped and knocked out cold on numerous occasions and both men have the striking ability and, more importantly, the punching power to break the others’ jaw once more.

However, I believe that while Overeem lacks the athleticism and speed of Arlovski, there is something to be said about his heavy kicking ability, superior sense of distance and heavier hands in this bout. Alistair is a devastating puncher when he lands cleanly and his composure inside the cage far outweighs that of Arlovski, who has a tendency to panic and start swinging wildly when he is hurt.

Now do not get me wrong; a stoppage win for Arlovski is undoubtedly his most likely way to win and his best opportunity for the upset, but Overeem is the superior striker and knows well enough about Arlovski to understand Andrei’s occasional lapses in range-finding and sense of distance. A knockout win for Overeem, and a crushing one at that, is what I expect to unfold at the drop of a hat to end what could very well be a somewhat uninteresting bout leading up to the climatic ending.

Krakrabbit: 3.10 Units On Overeem Wins ITD {-155}

Boxeo: 6.25 Units On Overeem Wins By KO/TKO/DQ {-125}

Grass Hopper: 6.25 Units On Overeem Wins By KO/TKO/DQ {-125}

Doody: 6.25 Units On Overeem Wins By KO/TKO/DQ {-125}

D3: 6.25 Units On Overeem Wins By KO/TKO/DQ {-125}

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