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May 7th, 2015

Saul Alvarez V Amir Khan Predictions!

By Krakrabbit

Saturday night on PPV, fight fans will be treated to a 12 round fight for the WBC World middleweight title when Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, (46-1, 32KOs) battles Amir “King” Khan, (31-3, 19KOs) live from the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada.

Alvarez opened the contest as the betting favorite and the odds have barely gotten any money since the lines opened, with Alvarez sitting at -550 and the underdog Khan resting at +425.

The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over coming in at +105 and the under at -125. Alvarez by KO comes in at -190, while Alvarez by decision will get you +420. Khan by KO hits the mark at +2100, and Khan by decision lands at +530. The odds of the fight being declared a draw sit at +2500.

Fresh off a win over Miguel Cotto in what was an exciting, closely contested bout (not on the judges’ scorecards, but in reality, it was) and a classic showdown between Mexico and Puerto Rico, Saul Alvarez is looking to defend his WBC World middleweight title on Saturday night for the first time since winning the vacant belt in his bout with Cotto.

4-0 since being conquered handily by the former best pound-for-pound fighter in the world – the currently retired Floyd Mayweather, of course – the man known as “Canelo” amassed wins over Alfredo Angulo, Erislandy Lara, James Kirkland and Miguel Cotto as he paved a comeback trail following his first and only defeat as a professional.

Alvarez, whose nickname translates into “Cinnamon” in English, has improved immensely over the years and while a chronological breakdown of his evolution as a fighter would be entertaining, I feel it is unnecessary in this case. The fact of the matter is that while it has been fun to see Saul Alvarez improving and growing as a fighter (and going up in weight, of course), there are millions of fight fans who have seen the same impressive growth from Saul as I have, and thusly know what “Canelo” is capable of inside the ring.

While Alvarez is very adept at playing the role of a boxer-puncher, countering his opponent and keeping far lower and more accurate punch stats than most fight fans perceive, Saul is, naturally, a gifted pressure fighter. Learning with increasing effectiveness to adapt to his opponent inside the ring, Alvarez has been showcasing his ability recently to change up his style as needed to make himself as effective as possible against his respective foes.

For example, Saul Alvarez was relentlessly aggressive against the quick moving, slick boxing Cuban Erislandy Lara and nearly broke the amateur superstar in half with crushing bodyshots and exhausting pressure throughout the fight. In what was undoubtedly one of Alvarez’s best performances at a world class level, Saul showed that he not only had the strength, but the technical ability to cut off, chase, and break down a slick boxer like Lara.

However, I feel a monumental aspect that is often neglected to be noticed regarding Saul Alvarez’s performance on that night is the weight in which “Canelo” weighed in at. Having competed in smaller weight classes for much of his career and even at 154 pounds often, the large Alvarez struggled immensely to make 154 and certainly anything lower than that on weigh-in day.

That said, when stepping up only one single pound to 155 pounds, Saul looks like an entirely different man. With a higher work rate, stronger punches, superior conditioning and more focus inside the ring, Alvarez’s weight struggles is clearly what lead to the majority of Saul’s difficult or simply unimpressive showings as a professional.

Now, on Saturday night Saul Alvarez will battle Amir “King” Khan at a catchweight of 155 pounds (don’t ask me how they are fighting for a 160 pound belt) and will undoubtedly be at the top of his game for this matchup.

Amir Khan, who has been volleying for a large, money making fight for quite a while – even going so far as to angle for Manny Pacquiao over the years – is a boxer at heart and from his days as an amateur star who competed in the Olympics to his bout on Saturday night, Amir Khan has always and will always live and die by his boxing ability.

Speed, agility, movement, jabs and a desperate hope to protect his infamously weak chin that has the structural integrity of wet paper has been the story of Amir Khan for years and will continue to be what he showcases in every fight. Amir is an exceptionally talented boxer with natural gifts that he parlays into picking apart his opponents primarily from range, but will occasionally mix up the pace by bouncing in, throwing a combination and hopping back out.

Due to his speed and foot movement, Khan is able to make these tendencies work and throughout his career he has only struggled with getting hit on the chin, but not necessarily being beaten by a superior fighter. Now read that sentence again. Amir Khan has never been beaten by a truly superior fighter, but simply struggled to handle punching power and as a result, became frustrated and, frankly, concussed.

That being said, Amir Khan has struggled in fights in the past and perhaps most notably comparable to this bout with Saul Alvarez is Khan’s losing effort against Lamont Peterson back in 2011. Now, you may be saying right now “but Krakrabbit, Peterson did not knock out Khan and still won the fight” but the reality is that Khan lost the fight for himself. He struggled to handle the threat of Peterson’s admittedly mild punching power and ultimately got points docked for fighting dirty and shoving Peterson on numerous occasions throughout the contest.

Khan also had trouble with the fact that Peterson is fairly quick and had the conditioning to chase him down and throw punches coming forward. Most of Khan’s opponents charge forward, get hit once, and are forced to reset themselves before throwing punches. Thus, the entire fight escapes with them only whiffing on a few punches but failing to mount a significant offense.

The red-headed Mexican, however, will not fall prey to such a tendency. As an experienced and gritty brawler, Saul is going to be winging punches all night long as he marches forward and cuts away the space of the ring for Amir Khan.

“King” Khan is an outstanding boxer and a technically sharp, God-gifted athlete but his chin simply cannot hold up to a fighter of Alvarez’s size and strength if it gets touched at all – which it will. Even if “Canelo” were not the immensely talented fighter he was, I would favor him to land and knock Khan to the floor at some point before the final bell in this bout.

But considering Alvarez’s seemingly endless ceiling as a growing, evolving fighter and other secondary factors such as his affinity for left hooks (a punch that Alvarez nearly beheaded Carlos Baldomir with, and that Danny Garcia knocked Amir Khan out with), I believe this is an extremely difficult fight for Amir Khan to win.

Simply, he would have to jab, run and avoid a heavy shot from Saul Alvarez for all of 12 rounds, at a weight class that is completely uncomfortable for Khan, being that he could be fighting at 147 pounds every month. That will not happen, and Saul Alvarez will have his stock raised even further with a rousing knockout of the talented but physically overmatched native of the UK.

Krakrabbit: 7.25 Units On Alvarez Wins By KO/TKO/DQ {-145}

Boxeo: 14.50 Units On Alvarez Wins By KO/TKO/DQ {-145}

Grass Hopper: 14.50 Units On Alvarez Wins By KO/TKO/DQ {-145}

Doody: 14.50 Units On Alvarez Wins By KO/TKO/DQ {-145}

D3: 14.50 Units On Alvarez Wins By KO/TKO/DQ {-145}

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