PPV Predictions
By Krakrabbit
The Saturday night HBO PPV features a 147-pound affair between two ring legends, Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr., (40-0, 25KO’s) and “Sugar” Shane Mosley, (46-5, 39KO’s) live from the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada.
Floyd Mayweather opened as the favorite in the bout, and the opening lines have remained the same for the most part. Currently he is a -410 favorite to defeat Mosley. Mosley supporters can get +385. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +290 and the over at -350.
Mayweather by KO comes in at +436, while Mayweather by decision will cost you -180. Mosley by KO hits the mark at +750, and Mosley by decision lands at +700. The odds the bout is declared a draw lands at +3000.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. is coming off a unanimous decision victory after a nearly two year hiatus, over former lightweight champion Juan Manuel Marquez eight months ago.
In his fight with Marquez, Mayweather was able to easily dominate throughout the entire bout, even dropping Marquez once in the second round!
Even though Juan Manuel Marquez is undoubtedly a very good fighter, I do not think much of Mayweather’s win over Marquez at all.
First of all, Marquez fought Mayweather at the highest weight of his career in the welterweight division, weighing in a full 8-pounds heavier then he had ever fought at in his career.
Not only that, but Mayweather did not make weight for the fight. While the fight was in the welterweight division, the contract was that the fight was technically at 145-pounds...Mayweather weighed in at 146-pounds, one pound over the limit.
In addition, because of the massive weight jump for Marquez, he was obviously much slower, much less slick, had little power on his punches, and had very low punch output.
Adding to that, I do not think Mayweather performed as well as he could have against Juan Manuel Marquez!
In the second round of the their contest, Mayweather dropped Marquez quite hard. After Marquez got back up, Mayweather barely even attempted to finish his bloated and hurt opponent off. He could have easily ended the night with ease, but instead decided to fire off only a couple shots, immediately backing off when Marquez threw back to defend himself.
Domination or not in the end, Mayweather should have been able to go home after only two rounds of action.
That is one of the few problems I can find about Floyd Mayweather Jr. Now, I’m not saying Mayweather isn’t an exceptional athlete and most likely a Hall of Famer though.
Mayweather has incredible speed and reflexes and is one of the best defensive fighters in the world today. As well as that, his precision is nearly unmatched during the fight.
However, for everything Mayweather does greatly, he is not a flawless fighter (despite what Floyd himself says).
For one, the guy has very little aggression. Mayweather rarely “sets up” his own offense, and is purely a defensive counter puncher. Granted, in his earlier days when still making a name for himself, Mayweather was willing to brawl and come after his opponent a bit more then now, but at this point in his career Mayweather has no ambition to stop his opponent.
Floyd waits for his opponent to throw a big shot, and then counter it. However, he does not counter everything his opposition throws at him. He often prefers to dodge, dodge, dodge, waiting for you to wind up a bigger blow, and then fire off his lightning fast counter attack.
As well as that, Mayweather is also vulnerable to the right hand. He uses his classic “Mayweather defense” that is quite easy to spot if somebody is trying (usually unsuccessfully) to mimic.
Because of his defensive style (which mostly consists of using his reflexes to defend most of the attacks, while covering the right side of his face at the same time), Mayweather leaves himself open to the right hand, as it is one of the few exposed areas on Mayweather.
Now, it’s not easy to hit Mayweather, but if you are going to land anything it is most likely going to be the right hand.
Speaking of right hands, Shane Mosley is just coming off a big win in his career over brick-for-hands Antonio Margarito last year in Los Angeles.
In his completely dominating performance, Mosley was able to easily land and beat down on his much slower opponent, eventually knocking Margarito out (brutally, might I add) in the ninth round of their contest.
Now, the first thing you might notice is that Shane Mosley has not entered the ring in nearly 16 months, and his last fight was against an opponent who is polar opposite to Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Personally, I do not think the layoff will affect Mosley very much. Mosley is a very focused fighter, and constantly keeps himself in shape year-round, much like Mayweather does (both men are Gym Rats, to say the least).
Also, this is not the first time Mosley has had a good amount of time in between fights, either. He took nine months off between the Collazo fight and the Cotto fight, and ten months off between the Cotto fight and the Mayorga fight.
Speaking of, first off, I think I should address Mosley’s fight with Ricardo Mayorga. Many, and I mean many people tend to point out Mosley’s very poor performance against Mayorga as reasoning why Mayweather will dominate him tomorrow night. I do not understand why.
Shane Mosley’s fight with Mayorga was contested at the 154-pound, light middleweight limit. I believe that, and that solely, is the reason Mosley looked so bad against Mayorga. By now, it should be common knowledge that Shane is not the best fighter he can be when fighting at junior middleweight.
Sure, he can still punch, and sure he has some good speed still, but by no means are his skills at optimum level at 154.
At 147, Shane Mosley is faster, stronger (in my opinion), has better stamina and better technique. Luckily for Shane, this is a welterweight fight.
I must also mention that despite his age (38), Mosley is still pretty much just as fast and punches just as hard as he did in his “prime” (I put quotes around prime, because I do not feel that Mosley is on a serious decline).
Stylistically, I feel Sugar Shane Mosley could give Floyd Mayweather Jr. some serious problems tomorrow night.
People often speak of Mayweather’s vast speed advantage over Mosley...I do not think that in this area Mayweather is as far ahead as people seem to believe. Shane Mosley is a fast man, a very, very fast man. And, call me crazy, but I think Mosley is just nearly, if not as fast as “Money” Mayweather is.
As well as that, the way Mosley fights could pose issues for Mayweather. Unlike Mayweather, Mosley will be more then willing to fight and brawl to get the victory, and quite frankly despite good boxing skills, Mosley just likes to exchange in the middle of the ring!
Shane Mosley also has a very good right hand (his left hook is very good too), and that is basically his money punch inside the ring. Because of his speed, Mosley can rocket off a right hand quicker then you can blink. As I mentioned, one of Mayweather’s biggest vulnerabilities is the right hand, and Mosley could actually land that punch on a somewhat consistent basis.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. is not a “runner”, either. He usually likes to play the rope-a-dope during the fight, just lying on the ropes letting his opponent miss and get countered. I feel this may play into Mosley’s favor.
Shane will be coming after Mayweather, and when and if Floyd remains stationary on the ropes he will have to fend off a hard, quick assault from Mosley.
There is one thing though; Mosley’s defense won’t be able to defend against Mayweather’s speed. When coming forward or throwing his punches, Mosley will be exposed to being hit. I expect that Mayweather’s speed could allow him to land somewhat clean when Mosley leaves himself open.
Of course, Mayweather does not counter unless his opponent is looking to launch a big shot at him. Otherwise, Floyd remains patient just waiting for that big, counter-able punch to come looking for him.
Which brings me to my next point. As I aforementioned, Mayweather is a very defensive fighter and in addition to that, he does not like being pressured or hit. Barring a wide-open opportunity, Mayweather usually doesn’t throw his own shots until his opponent has stopped throwing theirs. Even if the slightest activity is coming from his foe, he usually will be very hesitant to throw.
That is exactly why the jab could give Mayweather a ton of trouble. Oscar de la Hoya used the jab very well to keep Mayweather on the defensive for the first half of their contest, but eventually stopped using it and ended up losing a split decision on the scorecards.
If Mosley can do the same thing, use the jab on a consistent basis to keep Mayweather in his shell, which I expect he attempt to do based off what I have seen of Mosley’s training camp, Floyd could be in a world of trouble.
He will be so hesitant to throw, before he knows it the round will be over and he will have thrown no punches. After all, it’s tough to win rounds when you have no punch output...ask Joshua Clottey.
Shane Mosley has all the tools to beat Floyd Mayweather Jr. and hand him the first (official) defeat of his career. Mosley has very comparable speed to Mayweather, punches vastly harder, has a very good right hand, and although he does not usually have a consistent jab, I expect him to use one and use it well for this fight.
If anyone is going to beat Mayweather in the welterweight division, it is going to be Shane Mosley. Otherwise, it will take Floyd’s reflexes slipping for him to lose at welterweight.
A couple other things I should note. Although Floyd Mayweather Jr. has not often been hurt (a handful of times at most), I did feel that Mosley had a shot at stopping Mayweather. That is, until I found out that Mayweather is forcing Mosley to wear Grant gloves for this fight. Now, Grant gloves are not bad, they even have a Mexican styled version that would offer a puncher the classic fit and feel of traditional puncher gloves, but I have no way of knowing if Mosley is going to be wearing such a style and if he will be forced to wear 10oz gloves.
Nevada has a rule that standard glove weight for Welterweight (down to 136 actually) is 10oz unless both fighters agree in writing to wear 8oz. I highly doubt that Floyd Mayweather is going to allow a puncher like Mosley (whom he is requiring to wear a puffy glove like Grant in the first place) to use 8oz gloves.
I feel because of the glove issues the chance of a Mosley knockout is going be severely decreased.
Mayweather has always had a tremendous defense and trying to hit him in the face with a giant pillow on your hand is going to be very difficult. In addition to that, it will be more difficult for Mosley to land cleanly and throw effective bodyshots against Mayweather, because of the increased glove size.
Now, despite two decisions that could have gone either way going in Mayweather’s favor (Jose Luis Castillo in their first fight, and Oscar de la Hoya), I do believe Mosley can win a decision on the cards.
I’m not saying it will be easy, and in a razor close fight (like the Mayweather/de la Hoya fight), it could very well go in Mayweather’s favor, but I fully expect Mosley to fight well enough to earn a decision on the cards if it does go that long.
All in all, Shane Mosley is a great fighter and Floyd Mayweather Jr. is a great fighter. There is no doubting that both men are very skilled, but I feel that Mosley has a much better shot at pulling the upset then many believe he does.
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Mosley By Decision {+700} & 2.60 Units On Mayweather By Decision {-130}
Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Mosley {+385} & 2.60 Units On Mayweather By Decision {-130}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Mosley {+385} & .50 Units On Mosley By KO {+750}
Doody: 1.30 Units On Mayweather By Decision {-130}
D3: 1.30 Units On Mayweather By Decision {-130}