Fight Junkie

Year End Team & Individual Units Tally
By Boxeo

Well, the 2007-2008 betting year is over for the team at Fight Junkie and I must say, I am pretty pleased with the entire teams performance this past year!

We undoubtedly had some ups and downs (as all good cappers will have) but in the end every single expert on the site came out of the betting year with more money in their pockets then what they went in with. As I’m sure all of you out there that bet on this sport know; anytime you end the year in the black (positive) it is a good thing…a very good thing!

In fact, as a team we did so well that we were able to bring in a combined total of 169.58 units! Now that’s not chump change.

Individually, Boxeo was the main man of the year bringing in a whopping 78.50 units won.

Next up in the food chain was Doody with a nice 49.30 units won on the year.

In the number three spot is our good friend Krakrabbit who amassed a respectable 15.70 units Won.

D3 came in fourth nailing 14.63 total units won for the 2007-2008 betting year.

Rounding out the team is Grasshopper with 11.46 units won.

At one point and time in the year Grasshopper had a huge unit lead over everyone single team member on the site. The downfall of the great Grasshopper came at the hands of Vernon Forrest facing Sergio Mora (first fight.)

Grasshopper went extremely large on that fight and the loss dropped him from the leader board. It is a credit to his skillful boxing knowledge that he was able to overcome such a huge loss and end the year on the plus side!

An important thing to remember about this site is all of the betting information that you will see is what we like to call “real world” betting advice. We don’t use made up, mythical numbers that are unrealistic for a large variety of reasons (I may touch on this subject more in depth later.)

We feel our advice and betting strategies are realistic enough for anyone to follow and produce the same results that you see above.

Thanks a bunch for checking out the site and we hope to produce even better numbers for the 2009-2010 betting year.

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night HBO main event features an IBO, WBO, and WBA lightweight title affair between two battle-tested warriors, Juan Diaz, (34-1, 17KO’s) and Juan Manuel Marquez, (49-4-1, 36KO’s) live from the Toyota Center, Houston, Texas.

Juan Diaz opened as the underdog in the bout, but since the line opened there has been nothing but Marquez money coming in. Currently he is a -160 favorite to defeat Diaz. Diaz supporters can grab the underdog money at +140. The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +285 and the over at -345.

Marquez by KO comes in at +380, while Marquez by decision will net you +160. Diaz by KO hits the mark at +610, and Diaz by decision lands at +200. The odds the bout is declared a draw lands at +1800.

Marquez is coming off an impressive eleventh round stoppage of Joel Casamayor just five months ago in his lightweight debut.

Even though the fight was extremely close on the judge’s cards heading into that eleventh round, Marquez proved to any and all doubters that he has the power to compete with any 135-pounder out there.

The stoppage win over Casamayor was even more impressive since top-tier fighters such as Diego Corrales, Acelino Freitas, Michael Katsidis, Jose Luis Castillo, Nate Campbell and many others could not stop Casamayor.

Juan Manuel Marquez was not only able to become the first fighter to stop “El Cepillo” but he did it in his debut at 135-pounds!

Now, Juan Diaz supporters are suggesting that Marquez may be getting too much credit for his stoppage victory over Casamayor. They suggest Casamayor was on his last legs and stopping him was really no great feat.

Of course I strongly disagree with that sentiment and feel Marquez displayed all of the tools in that fight that have earned him inclusion into the top pound-4-pound list for many, many years now.

Marquez, for the second time in his career, will put his skills to test in the lightweight division when he squares off with the “Baby Bull” Juan Diaz.

Diaz is an in your face, pressure type of fighter. It is easiest to describe Juan as a bigger Wayne McCullough, with more power. He will come right out after Marquez and look to make it a slugfest from the start.

Although Juan may have more power then McCullough, for his weight class, he is not considered a big puncher. He simply overwhelms his opponents with non-stop punching from start to finish.

His non-stop punching technique has carried him to numerous titles and a 34-1 record, but the “Baby Bull” was only able to muster up a spilt decision victory in a so-so performance in his last fight against Michael Katsidis.

In my opinion, Diaz clearly won the bout but looked ordinary doing so because Katsidis was not there to fight. Before his contest with Diaz, Katsidis was also thought of as an in your face, aggressive brawler that loved to exchange leather.

Suddenly when he stepped in the ring with the “Baby Bull” he decided to try and switch up his style and become the next Muhammad Ali. Obviously, Katsidis does not have anywhere near the skills of a Muhammad Ali, and he failed miserably trying to outbox Diaz.

In fact, he really wasn’t even boxing, more like trying not to engage and slow the entire fight down to a crawl. For some reason the three blind mice at ringside found rounds to give to Katsidis, and Diaz was forced to hold his breath as the split decision was announced.

If Juan Diaz had not been going forward and trying to make a fight there is no question in my mind every audience member and fight fan watching on T.V. would have been sound asleep by the middle rounds of the fight.

Although Diaz is now facing a fighter in Marquez that many people consider to be a masterful counter puncher, at times he tends to become more aggressive than necessary, leaving himself open to countershots.

Even though Marquez has tremendous boxing abilities, when an opponent is able to break through his defense and nail him with a clean shot he refuses to “run”. Even after being hurt and dropped by Barrera, Marquez came out for the next round standing right in front of Marco and even began trading with him again.

He displayed that same warrior mentality against Manny Pacquiao in the first round of their fight when he was dropped three times. Never did he try to hold “Pac Man” or run away, he stayed right in front of him and threw his own shots.

It is a testament to his beard and his heart that he has never been stopped in his four losses; but recently he is taking more and more solid shots in his fights.

With that said, I don’t feel Diaz has the one-punch power necessary to lay Marquez out and end the night, but he does apply so much pressure that his opponents are forced to try and match him punch for punch or risk being pummeled along the ring ropes.

Diaz is a non-stop punching machine, and even though he has very little one-punch knockout power, he can score stoppages by battering and tiring out his opponents.

There is no question that Marquez has the greater skill set in this fight, but if he allows his machismo to get the better of him (he always does) and welcomes Diaz into the trenches, his conditioning is going to be severely tested.

Most of the time the Baby Bull’s rivals cannot match him in the workrate department and as the rounds go by they get deeper and deeper into a scoring deficiency. The combination of absorbing a million shots, and knowing you are losing badly on the scorecards tends to quickly wear a fighter down physically and mentally.

It’s no secret that Diaz loves close quarter combat. I am certain he is going to try and force Marquez into a war. While I feel Marquez can have great success with the uppercut on the inside, I think if he spends the entire fight standing in front of Diaz he is giving Juan the best possible opportunity to score the upset win.

Diaz is certainly far from a defensive wizard, but he does tend to block punches very well with his gloves when engaged in inside warfare.

Now, should Marquez elect to stay on the outside and counter Diaz as he rushes forward, I think he makes the fight much easier.

There is no doubt that regardless of how Marquez chooses to fight, Diaz is going to come forward and throw punches. However, If Marquez “boxes” he will be able to land many more clean punches on Diaz without allowing Juan to land as much of his own leather.

Even if Diaz is unable to hurt Marquez when he lands, as long as he continues to touch him over and over again, there is great probability that Diaz will be able to mark up the face of Marquez.

Marquez has battled severe cuts in the past and with the amount of leather that Diaz throws, combined with his aggressive style, I would not be shocked if Marquez was forced to deal with cuts or swelling.

We all know how his face looked during the “Pac Man” bouts, but most recently he was showcasing some nice swelling in his fight against Casamayor. Most of the time his swelling/bleeding is centered on his right eye and it is definitely a concern when he fights.

Even when Marquez is winning rounds he seems to always get busted up in the face. However, he has an uncanny ability to ensure his opponents come away sporting some facial damage as well.

He was able to cut Casamayor over his right eye during their fight and also opened a huge gash over the eye of Rocky Juarez when they faced off.

Even if Marquez cuts/swells more often then Diaz, that doesn’t mean the Baby Bull can just march forward recklessly! He has also experienced cuts and swelling in the past and most recently suffered a nasty gash from a headbutt in his fight against Nate Campbell.

Because of the style match-up, and the propensity of both fighters to bleed/swell, I think there is a very good chance that someone is spouting blood early in the fight.

If you cannot tell by now, I am seriously concerned about cuts playing a role in this fight!

I don’t believe Diaz can win this fight sitting on the outside while Marquez hits him with everything in his arsenal. The only chance he has is to get into close range and force Marquez to trade with him.

I would not be shocked if this fight quickly turned into a slugfest.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Won’t Go Distance {+190}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Marquez By Decision {+160}
Grass Hopper: 1.00 Units On Won’t Go Distance {+190}
Doody: .50 Units On Diaz {+140}
D3: 1.00 Units On Won’t Go Distance {+190}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night HBO co-main event features veteran Chris John, (42-0-1, 22KO’s) defending his WBA featherweight title against the real life “Rocky”, Rocky Juarez, (28-4, 20KO’s) live from the Toyota Center, Houston Texas.

When the lines first opened John was installed as almost 3-1 favorite over Juarez. However, Rocky Juarez money has continued to trickle in since the line was made and currently he sits around a +230 underdog. John remains the favorite at -280. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over at -450 and the under coming in at +340.

John by KO comes in at +440, while John by decision will cost you -140. Juarez by KO hits the mark at +472, and Juarez by decision lands at +462. The fight being declared a draw lands at +2200.

Although Juarez does not possess as many professional bouts as his opponent John, he does bring a load of ring experience for a guy with only thirty-two fights. He was a decorated amateur, and even managed to win a silver medal at the Olympics.

With his successes in the amateur ranks, Juarez had high expectations going into the early part of his pro career. Unfortunately, Juarez has not lived up to those expectations, and now tries to put together back-to-back wins after previously losing three out of five fights.

For Juarez to win two fights in a row and pick up the WBA world title in the process, he must defeat Chris John, a veteran of forty-three professional fights.

Although John brings tremendous experience to his clash with Juarez, Rocky knows what it’s like to battle an old vet inside those ring ropes. He clashed with former world champion Marco Antonio Barrera not once, but twice.

Their first meeting was one of the better performances from Juarez. He battered and bloodied Barrera whenever the ageing vet tried to stand toe-to-toe with his younger foe. However, being the veteran that he is, Barrera quickly realized that he could not fend off the young lion on the inside, and boxed his way to a disputed twelve round decision win.

With the fight being so close in many people’s eyes, Barrera and Juarez agreed to get it on one last time. This time Barrera never stood and traded with Juarez and easily out boxed him over the distance. The differences between the two performances are night and day.

In the first bout Juarez let his hands go whenever Barrera was in range. In the second fight Juarez elected to follow Barrera around the ring and never threw any punches. This is the biggest problem with Rocky Juarez; he is too patient of a fighter. He is always looking for that perfect shot and the next thing he knows the bell has sounded to end the fight and he has done little but follow his opponent around the ring.

After his disappointing losses to Barrera, Rocky waited just about one year before squaring off with Juan Manuel Marquez for the WBC featherweight championship of the world.

Before the boxers were even able to get into a fighting groove, Juarez was on the receiving end of an accidental clash of heads that opened a nasty gash over his left eye in the very first round of the fight.

Rocky claimed the butt caused his vision to blur and hindered his ability to force Marquez into a slugfest.

Regardless if the butt did alter the fight for Juarez or not, the fact of the matter is he is simply way too patient inside the ring. He allows his opponents to outwork him as he walks forward but does not cutoff the ring or punch as he advances.

It is extremely frustrating to watch a talented fighter that appears to have some type of disconnect in the mental department. Juarez has had four losses in his career and all but the first Barrera fight can be directly attributed to his lack of punch output.

Juarez fought within his same patient mode when he last squared off against Jorge Barrios. Through eleven grueling rounds, Juarez simply marched forward, throwing a minuscule amount of punches as Barrios picked his shots and moved around the ring.

Juarez did have some great moments during the fight and eventually wore Barrios down enough to stop him in the eleventh round of the contest, but there were times during that fight you could see Juarez noticeably hurt Barrios but he refused to follow it up with enough punches to do serious damage.

Heading into that eleventh round I had Rocky trailing on the scorecards and honestly believe he was able to score the late round stoppage in large part because Barrios came into the contest off a year and a half layoff.

You could visibly see Barrios fade as the rounds progressed (Rocky did do some nice bodywork here and there) and when he began to trade toe-to-toe with the much stronger Juarez it became evident it was only a matter of time before Barrios would fall victim to the power punching of Rocky.

Now, Juarez faces a fighter in Chris John that has fought one single time out of the Orient! That’s not a typo. In forty-three fights Chris John has fought as a professional one time out of Asia (that fight was in Australia).

Although John has really never left home, he has faced a handful of decent fighters in his career. In fact, he fought and beat Juan Manuel Marquez back in 2006.

Most people feel the three blind mice at ringside cheated Marquez (the fight was in Indonesia and Marquez was deducted two points for low blows) but the fact remains he was able to last the distance and get the decision win over a quality fighter like Juan Manuel Marquez.

In my opinion there is only one way for John to win this fight…box! Juarez is known as a plodder who walks forward without throwing many punches. If he does that against John it will allow him to tee off on him as he walks forward.

I don’t feel John can afford to trade punch for punch with Juarez at all. Juarez has an iron beard and it would be a huge mistake for John to turn this fight into a knockdown, drag out fight.

John has been on the seat of his pants in a few fights against much lesser punchers then Rocky Juarez. Truthfully, I am a bit shocked Marquez was unable to put him down.

I can tell you this, for all of Rocky Juarez’s shortcomings inside the squared circle, the kid can punch. If he connects cleanly on John I fully expect the Indonesian superstar to taste the canvas.

The move down in weight four pounds for Juarez may actually help him when he steps in the ring. The thought is Juarez will be in just a little better condition at 126 and maybe, just maybe, will let his hands fly a little more freely.

With that said, John has the boxing skills to cause Juarez all kinds of trouble, in large part because Juarez refuses to throw an adequate number of punches per round.

I highly doubt John is going to stand there and trade with Rocky. He didn’t want any part of a toe-to-toe slugfest against Marquez, so I assume he won’t want to stand there and throw down with Juarez.

On paper this would appear to be a case of Juarez needing a stoppage to score the upset, and John only being able to win on the scorecards.

However, rumors have been circling that John is having a terrible time with his weight. Apparently he was ill with a fever for a few days and that sickness caused him to miss some days of gym work.

Should the rumors turn out to be true and John is less then 100 percent, he will lose this fight! In fact, even if he is 100 percent he may still end up flying back home without his world title around his waist.

It is important to point out that this fight is taking place in Texas. Juarez is from Texas and one never knows how that may play out if the fight ends up in the hands of the three blind mice at ringside.

As I mentioned earlier, I had Juarez losing to Barrios up until the stoppage came; yet the three blind mice at ringside had him winning! I personally thought he was being out boxed and outworked, but the judges saw something completely different.

Barrios was also deducted a couple of points for low blows that were extremely questionable calls.

With the backwards movement of John, and the aggressive stance that Juarez usually takes (moving forward even if not throwing a lot of punches) I would not be shocked to see him get a close “hometown” decision if this thing makes it to the scorecards.

Of course, for any Juarez victory he must let his hands go. He has once again promised to be more active, but it’s hard to teach old dogs new tricks. While Juarez would be greatly served to punch as much as possible, I am not sure if his demeanor will allow it.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Juarez {+290}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Juarez {+290}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: N/P
D3: .50 Units On Juarez {+290}

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

This Saturday night features the return of Miguel Cotto, (32-1, 26KO’s) seven months removed from his frightful beating at the hands of Antonio Margarito. Cotto will now climb back into the ring against unknown Michael Jennings, (34-1, 16KO’s) live from the Madison Square Garden, New York, New York.

Cotto opened the contest as the enormous betting favorite in the bout and even though his numbers continue to climb, public money has continued to flow in on the Puerto Rican superstar. Currently he is a –1900 favorite to defeat Jennings on Saturday night. Jennings supporters can get a whopping +1300 for their money.

The O/U for the fight has been set at 5.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -130 and the under landing at +110. Cotto by KO will cost you -500, while Cotto by decision will net you +552. Jennings by KO hits the mark at +1650, and Jennings by decision lands at +2200.

It’s painfully obvious from the current betting lines that oddsmakers feel the result of Saturday nights fight is already a forgone conclusion. With such lopsided betting odds they seem to suggest all Cotto needs to do is simply show up to the ring and knockout his spoon fed tomato can.

One of the major reasons it’s so easy to come to such a conclusion is because of the lack of real talent that Jennings has faced. Although he sports an impressive 34-1 record, his career has been littered with a bunch of nobodies. In thirty-five fights he has not come remotely close to facing a fighter with the skill set of Miguel Cotto.

With such outlandish betting odds, the only real reason I decided to write anything on this fight at all was because the low over/under of 5.5 rounds sparked a bit of interest in me.

We know Cotto is coming off a brutal beating from Antonio Margarito seven months ago. In that fight Cotto took a terrible pounding as the rounds wore on until he was finally pounded into submission in the eleventh round.

With all of the recent controversy surrounding Antonio Margarito and his “plaster wraps” there is some doubt as to what really was going on in that fight. One thing is for certain though… Cotto took a thrashing!

Having never tasted defeat before is tough enough for some boxers to overcome, but the way Cotto was beaten down makes you wonder how he will look in his first fight back? You only need to look at fighters like David Reid and Fernando Vargas as proof that one fight can change the course of a boxer’s career.

I honestly feel this is one reason why Top Rank has chosen to put Cotto in with a light-hitting fighter like Jennings. Even if the Cotto of old does not show up on Saturday night, the odds of Jennings being able to punch hard enough to seriously injure Cotto is highly unlikely.

Even though everyone in the boxing community prays Cotto was not on the receiving end of any illegal activity in the Margarito fight, the possibility still exists that he was forced to absorb rounds upon rounds of punches from the “Tijuana Tornado” that quite possibly contained a foreign (plaster?) substance within them.

Nobody (including Cotto) knows just how seriously he was damaged mentally, as well as physically, in that Margarito fight.

With that said, I do feel Jennings is the safest possible opponent for Cotto at this stage of the game. He doesn’t punch very hard, has faced limited opposition, and is more of a boxer then a brawler. It doesn’t hurt this fight also just so happens to be for the vacant WBO welterweight championship of the world.

Even though Michael Jennings is being shipped into Madison Square Garden to make Cotto look good and allow Cotto to grab the WBO welterweight title in the process, I do think some people may be underestimating the loss to Margarito and Cotto’s troubles outside the ring.

First you have his massive weight gain after the Margarito fight. Now it’s no secret that Cotto has always had trouble making weight. He had trouble at 140 pounds, and he still has trouble at 147 pounds. That doesn’t mean he comes into his fights overweight, but he has to work extremely hard in training camp to ensure he will make the welterweight limit of 147 pounds.

Another potential problem area for Cotto in this fight is his right shoulder. Apparently Cotto was involved in a car accident way back in 2001 and injured his right shoulder. Reports are coming out of Cotto’s camp that his old shoulder injury has been affecting him during his training regimen for Jennings.

Since Cotto has moved to welterweight his earliest stoppage wins have been in round number five. Now granted on paper the guys Cotto blasted out in five (Carlos Quintana and Alfonso Gomez) are much better then Michael Jennings, but Cotto was not facing the same type of difficulties heading into those fights that he now faces.

With all of the questions surrounding Cotto I think it is a reasonable gamble to suggest that Jennings may just be able to use his height advantage and enough lateral movement to last 5.5 rounds.

Now I’m not suggesting Michael Jennings is going to waltz into NY and beat Miguel Cotto (he would need a knockout to get a draw on the judge’s scorecards) but all “over” backers need is for Cotto to start a little slower then he usually does and for Jennings to get on his bike for a few rounds and they will be sitting pretty.

Boxeo: 2.60 Units On Over 5.5 Rounds {-130}
Krakrabbit: 1.30 Units On Over 5.5 Rounds {-130} & .20 Units On Cotto By Decision {+552}
Grass Hopper: 2.60 Units On Over 5.5 Rounds {-130} & 1.00 Units On Over 9.5 Rounds {+320} (Vegas Odds) & .50 Units On Jennings {+1300}
Doody: .25 Units On Cotto By Decision {+552}
D3: 1.30 Units On Over 5.5 Rounds {-130} & .20 Units On Cotto By Decision {+552}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night on HBO we have Nate the “Galaxxy Warrior” Campbell, (32-5-1, 25KO’s) squaring off against South African Ali Funeka, (30-1-2, 25KO’s) live from the BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise, Florida.

Campbell opened over a –200 favorite, but a flood of public bread came in on Funeka, dropping the “Galaxxy Warriors” number to -160. Funeka currently rests as a +130 dog. The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -+120 and the under coming in at -140.

Campbell by KO comes in at +157, while Campbell by decision will reward you with +214. Funeka by KO hits the mark at +349, and Funeka by decision lands at +439. The odds the fight is declared a draw land at +3000.

The first thing you should know about this match-up is the fact that Campbell was unable to make the 135-pound weight limit. He initially weighed-in at 138-pounds and after being given two hours to make 135, he tried again only to come in at 137.5

This means Campbell loses his world title belts on the scales. Even if he wins this fight against Funeka he will no longer be IBF & WBO world champion, the belts will be vacant.

However, should Funeka win the contest against Campbell, he will be awarded both championship title belts for his effort of actually making the lightweight limit (he really came in lighter then the 135-pound limit at 133.5).

I personally believe a lot of Nate’s weight issues stem from his yearlong layoff. Most fighters balloon up in weight when not fighting and it is clear that Nate did the same during his year out of the ring.

For Campbell to miss the lightweight limit by three pounds is a major deal. Not only did he miss the mark the first time he hit the scales, but also could not come close to making weight two hours later after hitting the sauna.

The shocking revelation that Campbell would not make weight was not only a surprise to the general betting public, but I personally know of at least one major book that immediately took down all bets related to the Campbell bout the minute it was announced he was not going to make weight.

Now those odds were later put back up, but a funny little thing happened when Funeka’s numbers mysteriously returned lower then they were before they were removed!

I do not like the look of Campbell in all of the recent weigh-in photos I have been able to find (I guess the books didn’t either). I think he looks seriously drained and of course severely disappointed in not being able to defend his titles.

It’s also import to note that at the age of 36, Campbell is no spring chicken. Being forced to deal with these types of weight issues cannot be good for his ageing body. In fact, Campbell has already expressed the need to move up to 140 after his clash with Funeka.

It’s obvious that Campbell has put himself in a terrible position for Saturday nights fight. The question is can Ali Funeka take advantage of the situation?

Most people really only know Funeka from his four round destruction of Zahir Raheem seven months ago. In reality, that is Funeka’s best win and one of his most notable opponents on his record.

Even though Campbell has faced the much better competition, Funeka does have some tools that he can certainly put to use on Saturday.

One of his biggest strengths in this fight is his freakishly tall frame of 6’1 inches tall. I don’t recall Campbell ever facing such a tall opponent before. The height and reach of Funeka could cause serious problems for Campbell.

How on earth Funeka can make the 135-pound weight class limit I will never know.

Another area where Funeka could shine is in the power department. With 25KO’s in 30 wins there is no question Funeka has some pop in his gloves. If he can keep Campbell at the end of his long punches he could do some real damage on the outside.

We all know what Nate brings to the table. He is a crafty vet that has been around for what seems like ages. His recent victory over Juan Diaz was simply spectacular, but it is imperative to understand the Nate Campbell that fought Juan Diaz is not going to be in the ring Saturday night.

The weight issues for Campbell must throw a real monkey wrench into his plans on how to attack Funeka. If he truly is not in great shape how long can he battle toe-to-toe if he does not get Funeka out of there early? I feel his only hope is to go out there and try to take Ali out very early in the fight.

Any plans he may have had of wearing Funeka down by getting inside that long reach and working the body are now out the window. I cannot envision him having the strength or energy to go into the trenches with Funeka for 12 hard rounds.

Although Campbell will be the most accomplished fighter Funeka has faced, he is in a sweet spot to score an upset win. Had this sudden weight issue not come up I think Campbell would have had an excellent chance of not only beating Funeka, but stopping him sometime late in the fight.

However, if Nate comes into this fight in less then stellar condition, all Funeka will now need to do is weather Campbell’s last ditch hurrah (Funeka has been put down on the seat of his pants on multiple occasions) and then go to work on his overweight foe.

Early Saturday morning Campbell tipped the scales at 144 while Funeka came in at 141. That means Funeka has went up 7.5 pounds since the weigh-in and Campbell has went up 6.5 pounds since the weigh-in.

I still feel there is a slim chance for Campbell to win this fight but he has done himself a disservice by not making 135. Funeka does not throw a ton of punches in the ring and if Campbell is somehow able to muster up enough energy to force Funeka into an inside battle he can certainly be effective.

Because there are so many questions surrounding this fight I am just going to play the under and hope somebody, anybody, gets stopped before 11.5 rounds.

Boxeo: 2.20 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {-110}
Krakrabbit: 1.10 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {-110}
Grass Hopper: 2.20 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {-110} & 1.00 Units On Funeka {+175}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Funeka {+175}
D3: 1.10 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {-110}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night the Showtime main event features a twelve round super flyweight WBA, WBC, and IBF world title unification affair between current champion of the world Vic “Raging Bull” Darchinyan, (31-1-1, 25KO’s) and the widely entertaining Jorge “Travieso” Arce, (51-4-1, 39KO’s) live from the Pond in Anaheim California.

Darchinyan opened about a -350 favorite over Arce, but the public has slowly been dropping more and more coin on Darchinyan, knocking his number up to -450. Arce supporters get the underdog cash at +360. The O/U for the fight has been set at 8.5 rounds, with the over landing at +170 and the under coming in at -200.

Darchinyan by KO comes in at -201, while Darchinyan by decision will net you +532. Arce by KO hits the mark at +506, and Arce by decision lands at +1043. The odds the fight is declared a draw currently rests at +3500.

As you can plainly see by looking at the above lines, the oddsmakers are anticipating an easy stoppage win for Darchinyan.

There are a couple of reasons why this betting line is currently in favor of Vic Darchinyan. One of the biggest reasons the “Raging Bull” is listed as a 4-1 favorite over Jorge Arce is because he has looked absolutely fabulous in his last two fights.

Crushing victories over Dmitri Kirillov (KO 5) and former Arce conqueror Cristian Mijares (KO 9) have propelled Darchinyan to the top of the super flyweight division.

On the other hand, while Arce has indeed been winning, as of late he has not looked as impressive as Darchinyan. Adding in the fact the level of opposition Arce has been facing has not been of the same quality as Darchinyan, and you get the current 4-1 odds.

Even though Darchinyan may now be the king of the hill at 115, it wasn't too long ago that he suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of underdog Nonito Donaire.

Up until the brutal knockout loss to Donaire, Darchinyan was riding a twenty-eight fight win streak and had mowed through twenty-two of them by stoppage. He was (and still is) a trash talking, arrogant, unorthodox fighter that had little respect for anyone or anything around him.

Although it was painfully clear that Darchinyan was severely limited both offensively and defensively, the boxing public overlooked his flaws and glorified him as an unconventional slugger that always got the job done.

One might think after being put to sleep with a single left hook shot by Donaire, Darchinyan would reflect back on his egotistical behavior inside and outside the ring and make some serious changes.

However, immediately after his bout with Donaire it was glaringly obvious that Darchinyan is simply unable to comprehend his imperfections. He refused to give any props to Donaire for winning the fight, and even ludicrously suggested he could have continued (if you have not watched this brutal knockout yet you must check it out before you bet on this fight.)

Of course after the bout the “experts” came out of the woodworks proclaiming they knew all along it was only a matter of time before Darchinyan’s defensive mistakes were taken advantage of and he was defeated.

That same unorthodox style that so many people revered when he was undefeated and knocking heads together suddenly became his Achilles heel after his vicious stoppage loss.

Now the “Raging Bull” has rebounded with back-to-back spectacular wins over quality opponents and those cries about his defensive liabilities have slowly turned to whispers.

Earlier I mentioned that Darchinyan not only lacks defensive proficiency, but also is extremely inadequate in the offensive department. Now I know most of you out there reading this are scratching your head about this statement.

How on earth can a fighter with thirty-one wins, twenty-five by stoppage, be limited offensively? A quick glance at how Darchinyan sets-up all of those knockout wins will give you the clear-cut answer to the question.

Darchinyan basically has only one punch in his entire arsenal…a left hand! His right hand is almost entirely useless. Even when he does use his right hand to jab (he is a southpaw) it almost always is a lazy jab that is used more as a range finder to launch a wild left hand power shot.

In fact, I feel the perception of Darchinyan as a rough and tough, in your face brawler, is not entirely accurate. I do not for one minute believe Darchinyan is great inside fighter! He loves to fire from the outside, leaping in with wild power shots.

His love affair with leaping in is a major reason he was knocked out by Donaire. He simply loads up from the outside with bombs and runs forward throwing them from every possible angle until something lands or he is tied up.

Donaire was one of the very few fighters who were able to allow Darchinyan to rush forward, off balance, and then step back a few inches and counter him after his wild haymakers went sailing in the breeze.

When Darchinyan is not rushing in like a madman, he stays on the outside of his opponents reach (or so he thinks) with his hands incredibly low, down by his sides.

Donaire was able to take advantage of Darchinyan’s low hand position many times in the fight, cracking Vic from the outside with left hooks and right hands. The reason Darchinyan was getting hit by those outside shots from Donaire is because he was unable to time the shots and move away.

With his hands being so low he only has one option to avoid the shots heading his way…move his head! When he mistimed his opponent’s punches, he got hit squarely on the chin.

Speaking of chins, Darchinyan showed tremendous vulnerability to Nonito Donaire’s punches. Even before the knockout shot landed, Darchinyan had been on shaky legs earlier in the fight.

Now it’s clear that Jorge Arce is not Nonito Donaire. However, I still feel there are tools that Donaire used to defeat Darchinyan that Arce will be able to duplicate.

Arce and Donaire are listed exactly the same at 5’6 inches tall. Donaire sports a 68-inch reach while Arce brings a 69-inch reach to the dance. Vic stands 5.5 and carries a 64.5-inch reach.

As I pointed out earlier, the taller frame and longer arms of Donaire allowed him to hit Darchinyan from the outside when Vic thought he was out of range. I expect Arce to have that same type of success with his punches when the two are at range.

One area I feel Arce needs to be spot on with is his left hook. In fact, a double left hook is just what the doctor ordered for an Arce win.

We already touched on how low Vic keeps his hands positioned and because of those low hands he is wide open (in every sense of the word) for a wicked left hook to the head (just ask Donaire). Now even though Arce can and will land that left hook upstairs, he can make life dreadfully miserable for Darchinyan if he throws it to the body first, followed by the head.

Arce is a tremendous body puncher and the few times Donaire landed his straight right hand to the body of Darchinyan I noticed it bothered Vic. I feel Arce is a much more seasoned body snatcher then Donaire, and I guarantee you Vic will not stand up to an all-out body assault from Arce.

Although Arce can box a little (both guys can a bit) I don’t expect him to be able to counter as well from the outside as Donaire did. I feel his best opportunity to make Darchinyan miss and then pay is to keep his guard tight and allow Darchinyan to fall in (as he usually does) after he punches.

If Arce can negate that single left hand shot he will be in perfect position to take it to Darchinyan. Remember, I don’t anticipate Vic trying to slug it out toe-to-toe with Arce on the inside. He will try to box a bit and counter Arce as he comes forward, using his only available weapon… the left hand.

Arce can both slip the left hand shot (keep in mind Arce is far from a defensive wizard himself) and then pummel Darchinyan before he scatters away, or he can try to neutralize as much of the power from the left hand of Darchinyan as possible and then start his attack.

Obviously, Arce supporters would like to see him take as few flush left hands as possible in this fight. A good tactic for Arce to do just that would be to move to his left. This would help to take him out of punching range for Darchinyan’s potent left hand power punch.

Since Darchinyan has little more then that left hand punch, Arce would not have to worry about any right hook punches heading his way as he moves to his left. It would also put him in grand position to land those left hooks we talked about earlier.

Honestly, for me this fight comes down to Arce being able to negate or take the left hand power shot of Darchinyan. I feel Arce is the better offensive and defensive (did I just refer to Arce as being better defensively then someone!) fighter.

If Arce is able to move away from that left hand shot and never fully get hit by it, or take it flush without crumpling, this will end up being an “upset” victory for “Travieso”.

While one cannot doubt the knockout percentage of Darchinyan, I feel his power is more widely used to accumulatively breakdown his opponent’s instead of blasting them out with a single shot.

I believe Jorge Arce has the bigger one punch knockout firepower and also sports the better chin. Nonito Donaire showed it only takes one punch to put Darchinyan to sleep and I think Arce sends Darchinyan to the sandman via the left hook.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Arce By KO {+506}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Arce By KO {+506}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Over 8.5 Rounds {+180} (Vegas Odds) & 1.00 Units On Arce {+360}
Doody: .50 Units On Arce {+360}
D3: .50 Units On Over 8.5 Rounds {+180} (Vegas Odds)

ESPN Predictions
By Boxeo

ESPN “Friday Night Fights” returns to action with an exciting twelve round vacant IBF 140-pound title match-up featuring Juan “Iron Twin” Urango, (20-1-1, 16KO’s) and Herman “Black Panther” Ngoudjo, (17-2, 9KO’s) live from the Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Ngoudjo opened about a -160 favorite over Urango but the public has slowly been dropping some coin on Urango, reducing Ngoudjo’s number to -140. Urango supporters can still get the underdog cash at +125. The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over landing at -225 and the under coming in at +175.

Ngoudjo by KO comes in at +483, while Ngoudjo by decision will get you +130. Urango by KO hits the mark at +400, and Urango by decision lands at +368. The odds the fight is declared a draw currently rests at +2000.

The first thing that should stand out if you are looking at the above odds is the ridiculous line the oddsmakers are giving you on a Urango stoppage.

If you have never had the opportunity to see Urango, he is built like a Mack truck and has plenty of power to go along with it.

Granted, Ngoudjo has never been stopped, but his whiskers are very questionable. He has been hurt by far less punchers then Juan Urango. For “Iron Twin” to be a 4-1 underdog to stop Ngoudjo is absurd.

As soon as the betting public gets wind of this current line I expect his odds to win by KO will plummet very quickly.

In fact, I believe Urango’s best opportunity to walk out of Canada with the IBF belt around his waist is to blast Ngoudjo out.

It’s no secret Ngoudjo resides in Canada, and most of his fights have taken place there. I fully expect Ngoudjo to enjoy a huge home court advantage on Friday night.

Actually, Ngoudjo received some of those hometown advantages in his last bout against Souleymane M’Baye.

In the third round of that fight Ngoudjo’s left eye began to swell to gigantic proportions. Although the ringside physician examined the eye in the fifth round and deemed Ngoudjo fit to continue, it was clear from watching the fight that Ngoudjo had little, if any vision in that eye.

You could easily make a case that Ngoudjo was allowed to fight nine rounds with one eye!

However, Urango has already touched on the subject of the bouts location and he knows going in that he must try for the knockout from the very first round of the fight (he always does anyway!)

One of the biggest threats to Juan Urango winning this fight by stoppage (or at all for that matter) could end up being his inactivity. He only fought one single time in 2008 and has not been in the ring in nine months.

With that said, Ngoudjo has not been a windmill of activity himself, fighting only twice in 2008 and having last seen action seven months ago.

For Ngoudjo to win this fight I believe he must be in tremendous shape and use his better technical skills to keep Urango from getting inside and blasting away at his head and body.

The biggest problem for Ngoudjo lies in his style. He is not a “cutie” inside the ropes and actually prefers to go forward and throw powerful right hand shots.

If he chooses to stick to this same type of aggressive boxing as he has in the past, I could see this fight quickly turning into a slugfest.

While I can understand making Urango the slight dog in the match because of Ngoudjo’s superior quality of opposition and home field advantages, should the two decide to slug it out mano y mano, there is no question Juan “Iron Twin” Urango will have the power and chin advantages.

The question for both Urango and Ngoudjo supporters is will the “Black Panther” allow “Iron Twin” to impose a street fight upon him?

I personally believe Ngoudjo will not only allow Urango to slug it out, but will welcome such an encounter. His style dictates such an affair, and I would be extremely surprised if he was able to change it up and outbox Urango for the entire 12 round distance.

I believe at some point and time they will be forced to trade some serious leather. I have to take those +400 odds and look for Urango to land a powerful bomb in one of the exchanges that crumples Ngoudjo to the canvas!

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Urango By KO {+400}
Krakrabbit: 1.50 Units Urango By KO {+400}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {+175}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Urango By KO {+400}
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {+175}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night the HBO main event features a twelve round 147 WBA world title affair between current champion Antonio "Tijuana Tornado” Margarito, (37-5, 27KO’s) and former pound-for-pound king “Sugar” Shane Mosley, (45-5, 38KO’s) live from the Staples Center in Los Angeles California.

Margarito opened about a 5-1 favorite over Mosley but the public has slowly been jumping on Mosley, dropping Margarito’s number to -460. Mosley supporters get the underdog cash at +365. The O/U for the fight has been set at 10.5 rounds, with the over landing at -140 and the under coming in at +120.

Margarito by KO comes in at +114, while Margarito by decision will get you +168. Mosley by KO hits the mark at +979, and Mosley by decision lands at +590. The odds the fight is declared a draw currently rest at +3000.

At first glance it may seem strange to see Shane Mosley as almost a 4-1 underdog. I think the major reason the line was set so high (too high in my opinion) is because of Margarito’s recent destruction of Miguel Cotto and Mosley’s less then spectacular showing against Ricardo Mayorga four months ago.

Heading into his bout against Cotto, Margarito was installed as a 2-1 underdog! Cotto had already defeated Mosley by close decision (personally I had Mosley winning that fight) and many so-called “experts” felt that Margarito was simply to slow to catch Cotto with his looping punches on a regular basis.

Obviously, the so-called “experts” were wrong and Margarito was able to slowly wear Cotto down, stopping him in the eleventh round of the fight.

On the other end of the spectrum is Mosley’s bout against Ricardo Mayorga. When the betting line originally dropped for that fight Mosley was around a 6-1 favorite to defeat “El Matador”. However, the public thought that opening line was extremely low and by fight night they had pounded the line all they way to –900.

On the night of the fight most Mosley backers were on the edge of their seat as “Sugar” and “El Matador” battled toe-to-toe for eleven evenly contested rounds. Only in the final round of the fight was Mosley finally able to impose his will on Mayorga and stop the game Nicaraguan as the bell sounded to end the contest.

When I say the bell sounded to end the fight, the official time of the stoppage was 2:59 seconds of round number twelve! Although Shane was officially ahead on two of the three judges scorecards at the time of the stoppage, he certainly did not take care of his business like one would expect a 9-1 favorite should.

As soon as there was talk of a Mosley/Margarito showdown many people began mourning the beating and eventual knockout loss that “Sugar” Shane Mosley was about to receive. I mean, after watching their last two fights how could one not predict an easy stoppage victory for the relentless Margarito?

Of course, I see things just a little differently. By now it should be common knowledge that Mosley is a completely different fighter at 147 then he is at 154. The kid still manages to get the job done at 154, but his speed, stamina, and punching power are all greater at 147 pounds.

The fact this bout is taking place at welterweight is a huge advantage to anyone backing Mosley.

Another important factor to remember is Margarito initially turned down a fight against Mosley. He was upset with the amount of money that was offered for the risk of fighting a great boxer like “Sugar” Shane. Even Margarito understands that Mosley is still a very capable and dangerous fighter.

The two sides eventually came to terms, but there has also been talk about Margarito ballooning up extremely high in weight after his fight against Cotto. Some are beginning to question if he has put enough work in the gym (how much weight did he really have to lose?) to defeat a fighter like Mosley.

It certainly would not shock me to find out Margarito has just been going through the motions in training camp, looking past Mosley to his eventual rematch with Miguel Cotto (which will happen even if Margarito loses).

With that said Margarito did come in under the 147 limit, hitting the scales at 145.8 pounds. Mosley was 147.2 and then went back to the scale five minutes later and hit 147 on the button.

Quite honestly I am not sure what to think about Margarito coming in so light. When I initially heard the weight for Margarito my first reaction was he was coming into the fight too light, but he does not look especially weight drained or “sickly”.

The last time Margarito weighed in at this light of a weight (145.75) was in his fight against Paul Williams. In that fight he started extremely slow and that slow start allowed Williams to build up a massive lead on the judge’s scorecards that Margarito was never able to overcome.

Although Margarito has come in way under the 147-pound limit, I would be shocked if he does not put on 10-15 pounds by fight night. That should mean he enters the ring ready to go to war weighing around 160 pounds.

Regardless of any potential weight struggles Margarito went through in the gym, there is no secret to the style that he will bring into the ring against Mosley. He will simply press forward and throw punches. His defense consists of taking everything his opponents can throw smack dab on the chin and smiling back at them.

Even if Margarito is in tiptop shape, Shane is a very rugged and powerful fighter. I don’t think it will be as easy as Margarito supporters think for him to get inside and just rough Mosley up without taking a huge toll on his own body.

Although Margarito has shown a solid chin throughout his career, I don’t believe the hype that he cannot be stopped. Early in his career he was put on the seat of his pants and in his bouts with Daniel Santos there were times where he was visibly hurt.

I have also noticed Margarito seems to be very susceptible to being hit by right hand shots. In fact, that knockdown he suffered earlier in his career came from a looping right hand bomb that dropped him like a ton of bricks!

We all know Shane Mosley loves to throw that very same looping right hand punch (he throws a pretty nice straight right too) and I would not be surprised to see Mosley have great success with that punch on fight night.

Another issue you must consider whenever Margarito fights is his propensity of getting cut. Although he has a solid chin, his face first style almost always guarantees some type of facial swelling, not to mention clashes of heads.

There is no doubt in my mind that Margarito’s chin will be put to the test once again on Saturday night. Although I believe Margarito has faced much bigger one-punch KO artist’s throughout his career, it is the hand/foot speed of Mosley that could cause him serious problems.

However, speed by itself is not enough to beat Antonio Margarito. He has already proven in the past that he can break down fighters with speed advantages, but I am not so sure he has ever faced off with a fighter as well rounded as Mosley.

While I don’t think the greatest strategy for Mosley to incorporate would be to stand and trade with Margarito, if he chooses his spots wisely, he can get some serious work done on the inside and then move back outside to catch Margarito as he marches forward.

An additional important tool in this fight for Mosley will be his bodywork. While Margarito is certainly highly regarded for his body punches, Mosley was at one-time one of the best body punchers in the game.

Since he has been jumping from weight class to weight class he has neglected his awesome body punching abilities, but should he decide to utilize them on Saturday night, Margarito better hope he did not have a tough time losing those extra pounds in training camp!

One area I feel that is being greatly underrated is Mosley’s ability to clinch on the inside. Although at times Miguel Cotto had great success cracking Margarito in the face, he was using up way too much energy trying to avoid any inside warfare.

Cotto was never a masterful boxer anyway, and he simply could not overcome the massive amount of pressure that Margarito was applying.

Shane Mosley will not try and run away from Antonio Margarito! Some may suggest his inability to move out of Margarito’s way is the main reason he will get blasted out of the ring, but I don’t expect him to stand and trade bombs over and over again.

What I do expect him to do is to use his greater hand speed to fire off a series of punches before Antonio has an opportunity to counter back. When Margarito is done eating Shane’s leather (let’s face it, his defense is not great) he will undoubtedly attempt to fire back and that is when “Sugar” should clinch.

This tactic will allow Mosley to get off his own punches and stifle the offensive output of Margarito. If the going gets tough on the inside, Mosley can always switch things up and take it back outside where he will have the advantage in hand/foot speed.

Although I believe Mosley possesses attributes that Margarito does not, I am by no means suggesting it is going to be a walk in the park for Shane Mosley to beat Antonio Margarito.

Margarito is an unrelenting beast that will walk through the fires of hell to get to his opponent.

However, if Margarito neglects the jab and does little more then follow Mosley around the ring, he will allow Mosley to fire off rapid combinations as he advances and then move out of the way of Margarito’s slow, wide punches.

I believe Shane Mosley is head and shoulders above Miguel Cotto in pure boxing ability. Heading into the eleventh round of the Margarito/Cotto clash “Tijuana Tornado” was only ahead on two of the three judges scorecards by two points! One judge had the fight dead even at that point.

If Margarito is going to break Shane Mosley and retain his title he will have to start quicker and be more effective in his attack then he was against Miguel Cotto.

Remember… there was a point and time in Shane Mosley’s career when he was considered one of the best, if not the best fighter in the world. He was lightning quick, possessed a wicked body attack, and punched with tremendous force.

Granted, he is much older now, but his decline in pure ability has been rather insignificant and at welterweight he has already proven he can compete with the best the division has to offer. I see no reason why that trend will not continue on Saturday night.

Will Mosley turn back the clock and prove the skeptics wrong one more time?

Boxeo: 3.00 Units On Mosley {+400} (Vegas Odds)
Krakrabbit: 2.50 Units On Over 10.5 Rounds {+100} & 1.00 Units On Margarito By Decision {+170}
Grass Hopper: 3.00 Units On Over 10.5 Rounds {+100} & 2.00 Units On Mosley {+400} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Mosley {+400} (Vegas Odds)
D3: 1.00 Units On Margarito By Dec {+170}

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night we have the “Golden Boy” Oscar De La Hoya, (39-5, 30KO’s) returning home to PPV television for a welterweight super fight against pound-for-pound king Manny “Pac Man” Pacquiao, (47-3-2, 35KO’s). The De La Hoya/Pacquiao bout will take place live from the MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV.

The Golden Boy quickly opened as the favorite in the fight, but since the opening line was posted Pacquiao money has been steadily coming in. Even with the surge of Pacquiao cash flowing in, De La Hoya remains a –195 favorite. Pacquiao supporters can grab the underdog money at +185. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +155 and the over at –175.

De La Hoya by KO comes in at +155, while De La Hoya by decision will net you +263. Pacquiao by KO hits the mark at +450, and Pacquiao by decision lands at +373.

Although Pacquiao is widely considered to be the best pound-for-pound fighter in the game (Mayweather is still officially retired) you cannot ignore the fact that he opened up as a 2-1 underdog in his fight against De La Hoya.

It is my belief the sole reason that Manny is installed as the underdog in this fight is because of his non-stop scale climbing that he has fashioned throughout his career.

Now it is not uncommon for fighters to move up in weight as they get older or even for a super fight here and there, but Pacquiao is taking the term “moving up in weight” to a whole new level.

The kid originally started out his professional boxing career at 106 pounds! He slowly marched his way up the boxing weight classes until finally hitting his all time high of 135 pounds in his last bout against David Diaz.

From the time he started his career until his last fight he has moved up almost thirty pounds. Granted, his body is in tremendous shape and he has loads of energy inside the ring, but at some point and time you have to wonder when he will hit the wall.

For those gamblers out there picking Oscar to put Pacquiao away that time is now! Not only did Manny move up to 135 in his last fight, but also will make the gigantic leap from 135 all the way up to 147 to meet the “Golden Boy” for a super payday.

That is forty-one pounds from 106 pounds to 147 pounds! One would assume at some point his tremendous punching power might not follow him as he increases in weight and faces bigger and stronger fighters.

It is also important to point out that during his rise in weight he has only encountered three defeats but two of those defeats were by stoppage!

For Oscar’s part he is actually moving down in weight from his last fight. Prior to this fight against Pacquiao, De La Hoya’s official weight of 150 pounds against Steve Forbes was his lowest since he squared off with Arturo Gatti over seven years ago.

Since the entire theme of this piece centers on weight, I would be doing a disservice to my millions of readers if I didn’t mention Oscar’s own weighty issues.

Although there are zero questions that Oscar is a certain hall of fame inductee, he has had his own fair share of troubles as he has moved higher and higher in weight. Actually, three out of his five losses have come at weights 154 and above! His lone knockout defeat at the hands of Bernard Hopkins came at 155 pounds!

Even when he has managed to officially get the win on the judge’s scorecards, he has looked less then stellar doing so at these higher weight classes (can anyone say Felix Sturm!)

Now the Golden Boy returns to the welterweight division where he compiled a 10-2 record with 7 stoppage wins.

Part of the reason that Oscar has been able to make the move back to 147 pounds at the advanced age of 35 is because recently he has fought to stay in shape in between fights.

Usually, like most of the prizefighters out there, Oscar would balloon up in weight in between fights and spend a large portion of his training camp trying to lose those excess pounds.

After weighing in at 150 for the Forbes fight Oscar stayed relatively trim during the down time, making the move down three pounds to the welterweight limit of 147 not as difficult as it would have been in years past.

In this match against Pacquiao I believe De La Hoya simply has too many physical advantages for Pacquiao to overcome.

Oscar is bigger, stronger, taller, has the better beard, and will bring a six-inch reach advantage to the dance. Those are not insignificant advantages that De La Hoya possesses over Manny Pacquiao!

Theoretically he should be able to stand toe-to-toe with Manny and get the better of the exchanges or box from the outside, popping the jab in his smaller foe’s face every time “Pac Man” tries to close the distance.

Now that is not to suggest he is not going to be hit and hit often. Pacquiao has faced the best of the best in the lower weight divisions and delivers his punches with incredible speed and power.

In fact, if there is any single area where Manny may hold an edge over Oscar it will be in the speed department. Oscar is still pretty fast for a welterweight, but from all of the training footage I have been able to see of Manny it still appears he will hold the edge in hand speed when the two meet in the ring.

Although I expect Pacquiao to have the hand speed advantage in the ring I think we all can agree that Manny has serious technical flaws. Truth be told, he has a severely limited offensive arsenal. It is no mystery that Manny’s best punch is his left hand. Most of his offense is derived from a simple one-two combination punch.

On paper it would seem like a very easy task too nullify Pacquiao’s incomplete offensive arsenal, but the guy hits so hard that it only takes a single grazing shot to send his opponents down and out for the count.

With that said, Pacquiao without a doubt has progressed as a fighter since long time trainer Freddie Roach first started working with him. Under the tutelage of Roach, the hard-hitting Pac Man has added a very respectable body attack to his repertoire (just ask Erik Morales) as well as a slowly improving lead right hook from the southpaw stance.

In the end, the left hand will always be Manny Pacquiao’s most dangerous weapon.

But the question remains, will that potent left hand that has dropped or stopped opponents in the lower weight classes have any effect whatsoever when it lands on De La Hoya? How will Pacquiao react if Oscar takes his money punch and continues to fire back?

I anticipate wicked exchanges throughout this fight as both fighters try and impose their will on each other. Remember, throughout his long career Pac Man has been considered a puncher and will have a severe height and reach disadvantage if he decides to stay on the outside.

If the action starts fast and furious I would also not be surprised to see both fighters marked up in the face very early in the fight. In the past both guys have had trouble with their right eyes.

Pacquiao has been severely cut over his right eye in previous fights and De La Hoya was marked up badly against the light hitting Steve Forbes, and most recently sported a very nice shiner under the right eye from sparring with Victor Ortiz.

I believe if he truly wishes to win this fight, at some point and time Pacquiao is going to be forced to march forward and attack De La Hoya. If he doesn’t attack and make this fight an inside affair, his technically superior opponent will pick him apart on the outside. Either way he goes at it Pacquiao is going to have to take tremendous amounts of leather to give it.

Although his face first style of fighting has worked well for him in the past, if Pac Man can be stopped at 110 & 113 pounds there is nothing that suggests he cannot be stopped at 147 pounds against a great like Oscar De La Hoya!

Boxeo: 3.00 Units On De La Hoya By KO {+160}
Krakrabbit: 2.00 Units On De La Hoya By Decision {+263}
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Pacquiao {+185} & 1.00 Units On Pacquiao By Decision {+373}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Pacquiao {+185}
D3: 1.00 Units On Pacquiao {+185} & 1.00 Units On De La Hoya By Decision {+263}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight on HBO, fight fans will be treated to an interim WBO 154-pound world title showdown between Paul Williams, (35-1, 26KO’s) and the always crafty veteran Verno Phillips, (42-10-1, 21KO’s) live from the Citizens Business Bank Arena, Ontario, California.

Williams was quickly installed as the large betting favorite in the fight, and the line has remained fairly stable with Williams resting as a –1100 favorite to defeat Phillips on Saturday night. Those brave soles out there backing Verno Phillips to score the upset win can get +700 for every hundred bet.

The over/under for the Williams/Phillips bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over netting you +115, while the under comes in at -135. Williams by KO hits the mark at -170, while Williams by decision will get you +247. Phillips by KO is a mighty +1350, and Phillips by decision lands at a whopping +1784.

As the oddsmaker’s line suggests, this is Paul Williams’ fight to lose. Phillips is a decent fighter, but I think his style is completely inadequate to beat a fighter like Paul Williams.

First off there is a huge size discrepancy that is going to be very difficult for Phillips to overcome. With Williams standing a lofty 6’1 to Phillips’ 5’7, I think it’s safe to say that Phillips will have no choice but to bully his way inside the long reach of Williams and try to make this fight a toe-to-toe war.

The major problem in this type of game plan for Phillips is his lack of dynamite punching power. With only twenty-one wins by stoppage he is not a huge puncher. Even if Phillips did have more power, there is nothing until this point in Williams career that suggests he has anything less then steel in his beard.

If Antonio Margarito could not stop Paul Williams in their recent showdown, why would Phillips be expected to?

If he cannot stop Williams his other option would be to outwork him. Again, trying to outwork a fighter like Williams who routinely throws a hundred punches a round is going to be an extremely tough task for the thirty-nine year old Phillips.

That’s not to say it will be impossible for Phillips to win on the cards by outworking or maybe just out landing Williams. In his lone defeat, Williams had a tremendously off night against Carlos Quintana and was out punched and out landed over the course of twelve one-sided rounds, eventually losing on the judge’s scorecards.

For whatever reason (many suggest weight issues at 147) Williams just could not get out of the way of Quintana’s punches and simply followed him around the ring getting pummeled in the face over and over.

Four months later the two boxers met again and Williams quickly showed that he did indeed just have an off night in that first fight, blasting Carlos out in one single round in the rematch.

So, Phillips can try to stay on the outside and allow Williams to walk him down, throwing a million and one punches as he advances, or he can go straight ahead into the lions den and try to lure Williams into a slugfest.

If I were forced to pick between the two strategies I would vote for Phillips to get as close as possible to Williams and try to get inside his long reach. Margarito had his best success when he got right on the chest of Williams. However, if you don’t gauge the distance correctly against him you will end up eating leather all night long.

For his part, Phillips is coming off a hotly disputed split decision win over Corey Spinks eight months ago.

I had the opportunity to watch that fight and I thought Spinks clearly won the bout. With the fight taking place in Spink’s hometown I did not see any chance that Phillips was going to win the fight on the cards. I was surprised to hear the three blind mice at ringside score the fight in favor of Phillips.

In my opinion Spinks controlled the action over the course of the fight and Phillips simply did not do enough to win the bout.

Although Williams has scored twenty-six stoppage wins in his career, he is not a big puncher. He gets his stoppage wins from an accumulation of shots. As I mentioned earlier, it is not unheard of for Williams to throw 100 punches per round, EVERY single round.

While I highly doubt Phillips can win this fight, you cannot help but take note that he has not been stopped in twenty years! That is not a typo; Verno Phillips was last stopped back in 1988, in his fifth pro fight!

With that said, I have noticed that lately he struggles mightily with stamina issues in the later parts of his fights. He was almost stopped by Kassim Ouma late in that fight, and his punch output and overall effectiveness severely declines as the later rounds arrive.

With the amount of pressure that Williams should apply to the old timer I find it hard to believe that Phillips will be able to survive the entire twelve round distance.

I feel he is crafty enough to get through the first half of the contest, but by round seven I think this fight will be labeled a mismatch and Phillips will begin to take a massive amount of punishment. From there on it should only be a matter of time before we see a referee/doctor stoppage or maybe even a corner retirement that saves Phillips from anymore brutal abuse.

Boxeo: 1.70 Units On Williams By KO {-170}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Over 9.5 Rounds {+120} (Vegas Odds)
Grass Hopper: 1.00 Units On Over 9.5 Rounds {+120} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Williams By Decision {+247}
D3: N/P

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night showcases Ricky “ Hitman” Hatton’s (44-1, 31KO’s) quest to regain his place among the elite boxers in the 140-pound division when he squares off against slick boxer Paulie “Magic Man” Malignaggi, (25-1, 5KO’s) live from the MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV.

Hatton was quickly installed as the clear betting favorite in the fight and the line has pretty much stayed steady with Hatton hovering around the –250 mark. Malignaggi supporters can grab the underdog money at +210. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -330 and the under at +270.

Hatton by KO comes in at +380, while Hatton by decision will cost you -105. Malignaggi by KO hits the mark at +1316, and Malignaggi by decision lands at +282.

Both fighters recently had less then spectacular outings in Manchester six months ago. Hatton squared off with veteran Juan Lazcano and Malignaggi traded leather with Lovemore N’dou for a second time.

Neither fighter looked the part that their betting numbers suggested (Hatton was a –1250 favorite and Malignaggi was a -925 favorite) and both betting favorites were hurt in their respective bouts and struggled many times throughout the course of their contests.

Obviously with Malignaggi fighting on the undercard of the Hatton showcase, the powers that be were setting the stage for the match-up that we will witness on Saturday night.

However, after the dismal performances put forth by both fighters back in Manchester, many experts and fight fans alike feel neither fighter will ever again be able to seriously compete with the elite boxers in the division.

After his poor showing against Lazcano, Hatton went out and hired Floyd Mayweather Sr. to help implement some type of defensive technique to his arsenal. As we all know, Hatton was never a defensive genius but his lack of punch resistance against Lazcano was shocking.

Lazcano was a shell of his former self in that bout, but whenever he decided to let his hands go he could not miss his target. In fact, many people feel Hatton needed some hometown cooking from the referee to save him from being knocked out by Lazcano.

Regardless if Hatton would have actually been stopped if not for the referee jumping in to stop the action and tie Ricky Hatton’s shoe, the fact remains Hatton realized that at this stage of his career he must implement some head movement to help avoid being hit so often.

There are few better defensive teachers in the game then Floyd Mayweather Sr., but it will be interesting to see just what kind of teachings he was able to provide to an aggressive pressure fighter like Hatton.

If Hatton could ever afford a lapse in defense it will be in this fight with Malignaggi. With only five stoppage wins in twenty-five victories, I think it’s safe to say Malignaggi does not carry a punch with him inside the ring.

Malignaggi’s game is to hit and not get hit; yet recently he has been less and less sound defensively. His recent showing against N’dou is a perfect example of how he is taking more and more flush shots and being forced to dig down deep and come back from being hurt.

Although Malignaggi has shown a solid chin (he took an absolute beating against Cotto and went 12) his game has never been about taking punishment and fighting through adversity.

Malignaggi blames most of his sub-par performances on very brittle hands. It is not uncommon for him to hurt or break his hands when he steps inside the ring.

There is no question that Malignaggi should be commended for fighting through such pain and continuing to win, but you have to wonder how long he can keep winning against top-notch competition when he enters the ring with such a huge liability.

The biggest problems I can envision for Hatton in this fight is the movement of Malignaggi and the conditioning of the "Hitman".

It’s no secret Hatton balloons way up in weight in between fights and this fight is no exception. In fact, in recent photos Hatton appears severely weight drained and all of the years of draining his body to make weight will undoubtedly catch up to him. The question is… will it be Saturday night?

I think Hatton’s saving grace in this fight may be the lack of punching power from Malignaggi. Sure, the “Magic Man” may outbox him for several rounds, but Hatton will not be absorbing thunderous shots that break his body down.

I think the absolute worst-case scenario for Hatton is a close decision loss. Fight fans and most judges love that aggressive posture that Hatton puts on. The biggest Malignaggi fans on the planet are the folks that suffer from insomnia!

In all seriousness, I only see Malignaggi giving Hatton trouble on the outside. Although Malignaggi likes to think of himself as a defensive master, the truth of the matter is the kid gets hit a lot.

It will not be a contest if Hatton is allowed to get close and maul him to death. Malignaggi simply does not have the physical strength or punching power to discourage Hatton in an inside fight.

Malignaggi’s only hope to win this fight is to peck and move and try to get the nod on the judge’s cards.

If you follow my writings you know I absolutely hate leaving any fight in the hands of the three blind mice at ringside. If you are backing Malignaggi you are doing just that and should seriously look at taking him by decision if the odds permit it.

In my opinion, I don’t see Malignaggi being able to keep Hatton off of him for the entire night. Now there is talk from Hatton about using his boxing skills and this and that, but if he chooses to try and outbox Malignaggi he deserves to lose. His aggressive, pressure style is just what the doctor ordered for this one.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Hatton By KO {+380}
Krakrabbit: 3.15 Units On Hatton By Decision {-105}
Grass Hopper: 1.00 Units On Malignaggi {+240} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Hatton By KO {+380}
D3: N/P

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night fight fans will be treated to 168-pound WBC title eliminator when former undisputed middleweight champion of the world Jermain “Bad Intentions” Taylor, (27-2-1, 17KO’s) and former IBF super middleweight champion Jeff “Left Hook” Lacy, (24-1, 17KO’s.) square off live from the Vanderbilt University Memorial Gymnasium, Nashville, Tennessee.

Taylor opened the contest as the clear betting favorite, but public money poured in on him and his number is now all the way up to -600. Lacy supporters can grab the underdog line at +400.

The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +135, and the over at -155. Taylor by KO comes in at +157, while Taylor by decision will reward you with +142. Lacy by KO hits the mark at +862, and Lacy by decision lands at +813.

After the two very close decision wins against Hopkins, Taylor was thought of as the next big thing in middleweight boxing. His wins over Hopkins were considered the passing of the torch from one great middleweight champion of the world to a future great middleweight champion.

However, Taylor quickly started to lose his superstar label after being involved in back-to-back-to-back uninspiring performances against Winky Wright, Kassim Ouma, and Cory Spinks.

Many experts and fight fans believed he should have been 0-3 in that stretch of bouts instead of 2-0-1. In fact, if you throw in the two Bernard Hopkins bouts, you could make the case that Taylor could easily have been 0-5 from 2005-2007.

All five of those contests went the distance with Taylor being on the receiving end of very questionable decisions. Some folks even went as far as to suggest that regardless of the way the fight unfolded inside the ring, when it went to the scorecards, Taylor just could not seem to lose.

For some reason since the Hopkins fights, Taylor has appeared to regress as a fighter. He is not as aggressive as he once was, and even his highly touted jab does not get used with consistency.

In his first bout with Pavlik, Taylor started fast and went right after him, dropping the “Ghost” in round two. However, Taylor let him off the hook and paid dearly for it when he was knocked out five rounds later.

In the rematch with Pavlik, Taylor reverted back to the reluctant warrior and attempted to box his way to a decision win. He knew without a doubt Pavlik could hurt/stop him so this time around he decided to let the three blind mice at ringside decide his fate.

Although Taylor received nothing but love from the ringside judges when he was an undefeated, rising superstar, things did not turn out exactly how he planned when he was the one that ended up losing on the scorecards to Pavlik in the rematch.

The fact that Taylor regressed back to a boxing style that allowed his opponents to gain ground on him was not shocking at all. In fact, leading up to the Pavlik fight it had become commonplace for him to allow light-hitting boxers to easily bully him around the ring.

Before his first fight with Pavlik, Taylor had been receiving a lot of heat from the media and fight fans about his lackluster performances. I think he entered the first fight with Pavlik seeking to show the critics that he still had that fire burning inside him.

After his first loss to Pavlik, Taylor fired legendary trainer Emmanuel Steward and replaced him with his former trainer Ozell Nelson.

I must assume it was Nelson that implemented the boxing/counter punching style in the Pavlik rematch in the hopes of either catching Pavlik as he came forward, or winning on the cards.

Obviously that tactic did not work, but I have a feeling on Saturday night he will try to get Taylor to fight a similar fight when he faces off against Jeff Lacy.

Just as Taylor was once hailed as the middleweight savior of boxing, Lacy was thought of as the Mike Tyson of the super middleweight division. His short compact frame, combined with his tremendous knockout power was an instant hit with fight fans across the country.

Lacy went 21-0 (1 no contest) with 17 stoppages and picked up the IBF and IBO super middleweight titles along the way before squaring off with Joe Calzaghe for all of the marbles back in 2006.

Although Calzaghe was also undefeated and Lacy was traveling across the pond to face him, “Left Hook” was still considered the odds-on favorite to win the fight.

When the two fighters finally got in the ring it was evident from the start that Lacy was in way over his head. Calzaghe dropped him, stunned him, and humiliated him for 12 grueling rounds.

The beating that Calzaghe administered to Lacy is the stuff that ends careers. Lacy had never been in such a battle before and the beating his mind and body absorbed in that fight was wicked.

Ever since his beating at the hands of Calzaghe back in 2006, Lacy has not looked to be the same fighter he once was.

Granted he is 3-0 since the Calzaghe beating, defeating Vitali Tsypko, Peter Manfredo, and Epifanio Mendoza. However, he struggled with each and every one of those fighters and was almost knocked out cold in his last fight against Epifanio Mendoza.

Lacy claims some of the lackluster wins inside the ring were a result of his torn rotator cuff, but admits in his last fight against Epifanio Mendoza his shoulder was 100%.

Even at this stage of the game Taylor is head and shoulders above Lacy’s recent competition. If you just look at their recent competition and how they have recently performed, this fight is a complete mismatch.

Lacy supporters may be pointing to the power of Lacy as his saving grace and while it’s true he does have an impressive knockout percentage, his last stoppage win came back in 2005 against the shopworn Scott Pemberton.

For me, the only question I have is will Taylor put his foot on the gas and get Lacy out of there? It’s no secret that Jeff Lacy and Jermain Taylor are good friends. Taylor and Spinks were also good friends and we know how that fight played out (can you say stinker.)

In my opinion Taylor will resort to his punch and hold style (did Hopkins teach him that?) in an attempt to stop the aggression of Lacy. Holding always causes fighters trouble, and I think Lacy will have difficulty being held every time he attempts to lay some leather on JT.

Even if Taylor needs to implement this type of technique to throw Lacy off of his game plan he only need execute it for five rounds. Lacy is a quick starter and usually gasses after five rounds. During the second half of the bout his speed diminishes and he starts to throw one haymaker at a time. Say what you will about Taylor, but he does bring the better boxing skills and movement to the dance.

So there you have it. I feel Lacy’s best opportunity for a victory must come in the first half of the fight. Should it go longer then that I suspect the tide will dramatically shift in favor of Taylor as Lacy looks for one homerun punch to pull him out of the deficit that he will be in on the judge’s scorecards.

Even if Taylor does not head into this fight looking for the stoppage (I think he is going to try and do just enough to get the win) there is a slight chance that Lacy still gets stopped due to swelling.

His face has not been holding up well lately and the jab alone could do serious damage to his eyes. If Lacy is taking a pounding and his face is beginning to swell and fall apart, maybe, just maybe, the ref jumps in and stops the fight.

With that said, I just don’t like that lack of killer instinct from Taylor. We already touched on Lacy going the distance in his last few fights, but Taylor has not been a knockout machine himself, scoring his last stoppage victory all the way back in 2005!

I think if Lacy’s face does not fall apart there is a good chance this one sees the judge’s scorecards.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Taylor By Decision {+142}
Krakrabbit: 2.00 Units On Taylor By Decision {+142}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Won’t Go 10.5 Rounds {+145} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Lacy {+400}
D3: 1.00 Units On Lacy {+400}

HBO PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night we have undefeated superstar Joe Calzaghe, (45-0, 32KO’s) squaring off against living legend Roy Jones Jr., (52-4, 38KO’s) in a light heavyweight title affair live from the Madison Square Garden in New York City.

When the line first dropped, Calzaghe was installed as the clear betting favorite, but every since Bernard Hopkins’ upset win over Kelly Pavlik, public money has slowly been coming in on Jones and his number is now down to +230 at most books. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +265 and the over at -325.

If you like Calzaghe by stoppage you will get +271, while Calzaghe by decision costs you -110 .You can snag Jones by stoppage at +672, and the former heavyweight champion by decision will net you +450. The odds the fight is declared a draw land at +2400.

As you can plainly see by the posted odds, Calzaghe is expected to beat Jones in a distance fight on the judge’s scorecards.

The southpaw light heavyweight champion has never lost a professional bout, and is currently riding a high after soundly defeating the highly respected Mikkel Kessler last year and most recently eeking out a close split decision win over future hall of famer Bernard Hopkins.

For his part, Jones comes into his fight against Calzaghe riding a three fight win streak over Prince Badi Ajamu, Anthony Hanshaw, and most recently a unanimous decision win over former world champion Felix “Tito” Trinidad.

It’s no secret that Roy Jones Jr. brings the better resume to the dance. A quick glance at the former pound-4-pound king’s record and you will find names like Bernard Hopkins, Thomas Tate, James Toney, Mike McCallum, Montell Griffin, Virgil Hill, Reggie Johnson, John Ruiz, Glen Johnson, Antonio Tarver, and Felix Trinidad.

After forty-five professional fights, the most familiar names on Joe Calzaghe’s resume are Jeff Lacy, Mikkel Kessler and Bernard Hopkins.

With such a large gap in quality of opposition faced, one might be inclined to question the oddsmaker’s sanity in making Jones a 3-1 underdog in this fight.

However, setting a line has more to do with wins and losses, and I believe the oddsmaker’s see serious flaws in the game of Jones that they feel Calzaghe can exploit.

Although we outlined the fact that Roy Jones has clearly faced the better opposition throughout his hall of fame career, one must not forget that Jones is far from the fighter of yesteryear. As his legs begin to show the signs of a long career, we find Roy Jones Jr. spending large portions of his fights with his back to the ring ropes.

Even though it’s true that a prime Jones had a tendency to lie against the ring ropes, inviting his opponents to hammer him to the head and body. In his younger days, his reflexes were so quick he would just toy with his foe until he spotted the tiniest of openings before blistering off highlight reel combinations that left the crowd, as well as his opponents in awe.

That Roy Jones only exists in microscopic spots during the course of his fights. Not only does Jones use his legs sparingly, his still wicked fast hands are also kept under lock and key for most of the three-minute rounds.

In stark contrast Joe Calzaghe is a windmill inside the ring. He punches in bunches and forces his opponents to alter their offensive game plan in an attempt to defend the volley of punches heading their way.

Although Calzaghe can punch non-stop for an entire fight, he has widely been criticized for “slapping” with his shots. I say if “Slappy” Joe he has been able to score thirty-two stoppage wins by slapping his opponents to death, I pray for Jones sake he does not decide to close his glove and punch with authority!

I feel Jones’ tendency to retreat in a straight line, as he backs into the ring ropes, could be a huge advantage for Joe Calzaghe.

As I pointed out earlier, when his opponents attack him Jones has always had the habit of moving straight back into the ring ropes and putting his earmuffs on. This allows his opponents to pummel him from head to toe while he covers up and waits to counterpunch.

The problem with implementing this defensive technique against Calzaghe is the fact that Joe can stay right there on the ropes punching him in the head and body for the entire round! Unless Jones forces Calzaghe to back away, he simply will not stop punching until the bell rings to end the round or Jones is laid out cold on the mat.

Another danger the current version of Roy Jones Jr. faces is his slowed reflexes. Once upon a time RJJ practically went his entire career without ever being touched by a single significant punch.

In fact, if I recall correctly, he often boasted about not being able to relate to the adversity that other fighters often have to go through when they are cut, hurt, or knocked down during a fight.

Of course, that all changed when he faced off with Antonio Tarver for the first time way back in 2003. Notice I point out the first fight as the significant point in Jones’ career where he was forced to realize he was less than superhuman.

Despite the fact that Jones was able to come away with a very close majority decision win against Tarver, it was the first time in his whole career he was forced to dig down deep and fight through adversity.

In all of his prior bouts he toyed with his opponents. Even in his fight against Lou De Valle, when he suffered the first knockdown of his career, I never got the sense that Jones was in danger of losing the fight.

A lot of people point to the first Griffin fight as the first signs that Jones was beginning to decline, but even in that fight I never thought the scrap was slipping away from him. In each of those fights, you could always see that he clearly understood his surroundings.

He was notorious for allowing his rivals limited success before quickly snatching it back. I think he was well on his way to doing that very thing to Montell before the late hit and subsequent disqualification.

However, the Tarver bout was something Jones had never experienced as a pro. He was forced to battle fatigue, facial swelling, and being hit flush numerous times over the course of the entire fight.

Another very subtle change took place in that bout for Jones…he was forced to fight! I am not talking about boxing and counterpunching; I am talking about standing your ground and making a stand. As Jones has aged, his body has mandated that he sit down on his punches and take risks.

Taking risks was never part of the original game plan for Jones. In fact, throughout his career he was criticized for always fighting the “safe” opponents and fighting a safety first style.

At this stage of the game, Jones is physically unable to throw rapid-fire combination shots for a full three minutes of every single round. He no longer possesses the ability to use his legs and move out of harms way as his adversary advances.

Those two factors have contributed to him adapting a more “crowd friendly” style. By crowd friendly I mean he gets hit more! In essence, he has become more of a stationary target as he has matured.

I think the inability to fight how he has for the better part of his entire career, has forced Jones to either risk being knocked out cold, or go into a defensive shell.

A classic example of Jones going into a defensive shell was his ninth round knockout loss to Glenn Johnson. Not only did Jones get knocked out once again by a single punch (Jones was stopped in the second round in the Tarver rematch) he was losing the fight up until that point.

Johnson set the tone of the bout in the very first round of the fight. He jumped right on Jones, bullied him into the ring ropes and threw punches until the bell sounded to end the round.

For his part Jones could do nothing but cover up and potshot whenever he could muster up the energy and courage to let his hands go. Throughout the entire fight Jones’ punch output was non-existent, and when he did fire off a combination, Johnson would stand his ground and jump right back on him.

As the rounds wore on Jones went deeper and deeper into his defensive shell, until his reflexes betrayed him and he was caught with a jab-right hand shot that knocked him out cold for the second straight fight.

In the brief footage I have been able to view on Roy’s preparation for Calzaghe, it appears Jones is focusing more on conditioning his body for a faster pace inside the ring. This would be an extremely smart move on his part because we already know Calzaghe has great stamina and workrate.

Speaking of workrate, Calzaghe recently stated on the HBO behind the scenes series 24/7 that he needs to make his punches count more in this fight with Jones and cannot pity pat his way through the bout like he did against Hopkins.

I think lowering his punch output in the hopes of hurting or stopping Jones would be a grave mistake on the part of Calzaghe and could end up costing him his undefeated record.

His biggest assets throughout his career have been his above average hand speed and his tireless workrate. He will not possess the faster hands when he meets Jones Jr., but he can still bring the better workrate to the dance if he chooses.

If fight night comes and Joe Calzaghe honestly alters his offensive game plan against Jones in an attempt to land the harder, cleaner blows, I think he will lose the fight!

Although Jones is no longer invincible, he still has incredible hand speed and is second to none when it comes to potshotting an opponent.

Should Calzaghe decide to sit down on his punches more it will not only allow Jones to rest and counterpunch with great accuracy, but because Calzaghe is a southpaw fighter it will also allow Jones the opportunity to land one of the best punches in his arsenal… the lead right hand!

Jones throws this punch better then most fighters on the planet and Hopkins recently showed that Calzaghe can be touched with that punched on a regular basis and even dropped if the shot is timed right.

Hopkins was able to land the right hand on Calzaghe even though Joe was throwing a ton of punches every round. Imagine what the much quicker Roy Jones Jr. would be able to land on Calzaghe if Joe decides to pick his shot carefully before attacking.

We all know the punch that you don’t see hurts you the most. I feel Jones brings enough speed and punching power to hurt and even drop Calzaghe, but finishing him off is an entirely different matter.

Even in his prime Jones was never considered a “killer” inside the ring. Most of his stoppages have come from long drawn out beatdowns that slowly broke down his overmatched opponents.

As he has aged his lack of finishing skills have deteriorated even further. If you look back at his last three fights you will see a total of 36 rounds of boxing and three decision wins for the former pound-4-pound king.

It is also important to point out that Jones was not facing the cream of the crop in those fights. In his prime I am certain Badi Ajamu and Anthony Hanshaw would not have made it the distance with him. In fact, he was unable or unwilling to knockout Felix “Tito” Trinidad who came out of a two-year retirement and moved all the way up to 170-pound catch weight to face him.

Granted, he was able to have his way with all three fighters either hurting them or knocking them down, but he still could not pull the trigger enough to get them out of there.

I think Jones would need to throw a large amount of punches and land at an incredible accuracy rate to stop Calzaghe. Even though I can envision the accuracy numbers for Jones being high, I think it is his punch output that could hinder him a bit.

For his part Calzaghe carries solid power into the ring but when he has stepped up the competition he has not scored the stoppages that he did earlier in his career.

The three names we pointed out earlier that represent the most recognized fighters on his resume (Jeff Lacy, Mikkel Kessler and Bernard Hopkins) were all distance fights with Joe getting the nod by unanimous decision twice and the close split decision win over Hopkins.

With two of his four losses coming by knockout (one punch KO’s at that) I think it’s safe to say that Roy Jones Jr. chin is not made of granite. With that said, I am still only mildly worried about Calzaghe landing enough power shots to really hurt Jones. After all, Calzaghe is thought of as a volume puncher, not a one-punch knockout artist.

Now, if Calzaghe stays true to form and throws punches in bunches I have a feeling the three blind mice at ringside will be forced to choose between the volume of punches from Calzaghe and the harder, more accurate shots from Jones.

If that is the case, I would not be surprised to hear both camps crying that they won the fight on Saturday. Team Calzaghe will point to the overwhelming punches thrown numbers, and team Jones will point to the punches landed numbers.

In the end I see Roy Jones Jr. scoring an “upset” split decision victory over Joe Calzaghe that sets up a rematch 6-8 months later in the heart of Wales!

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Jones {+300} (Vegas Odds) & 6.00 Units On Jones Jr. By Decision {+450}
Krakrabbit: 2.00 Units On Jones By Decision {+450}
Grass Hopper: 4.00 Units On Jones {+300} (Vegas Odds) & 1.00 Units On Jones By KO {+750} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 2.00 Units On Jones {+300} (Vegas Odds)
D3: 1.00 Units On Jones {+300} (Vegas Odds)

HBO PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night fight fans will be treated to the return of WBC/WBO middleweight champion of the world Kelly Pavlik, (34-0, 30KOs) squaring off against future hall of famer Bernard Hopkins, (48-5-1, 32KOs) at a special 170-pound catch weight live from the Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Pavlik opened as the clear betting favorite in the fight, but public money continued to flow in on him, knocking his number up to -440. Hopkins supporters can grab the underdog line at +350. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +195 and the over at -235.

Pavlik by KO comes in at +273, while the middleweight champion by decision will cost you -110. Hopkins by KO hits the mark at +1186, and Hopkins by decision lands at +600.

Although there is a giant gap in the resume of the two boxers, it is widely believed that Hopkins is on his way out of the sport while Pavlik is just hitting his fighting stride.

Although Hopkins has faced and beaten Antonio Tarver and Winky Wright since losing his rematch to Jermain Taylor back in 2005, his overall record for his past five fights sits at a dismal 2-3 with zero stoppages.

In all of those five fights Hopkins showed flashes of being able to command the ring like the Bernard of old, but his inability to pull the trigger and throw more then one punch at a time is in large part the reason he has a losing record over the last three years.

Speaking of his last fight fights, those five bouts we touched on have all taken place in a span of three years!

Hopkins fought just twice in 2005, once in 2006, and one single time in 2007. His fight with Pavlik will make only his second fight of 2008.

I believe the oddsmakers opening a fighting legend like Bernard Hopkins as such a sizable underdog in this fight is a direct result of his inability to throw punches!

If you listen to the Hopkins supporters out there all you hear is how he has defined the odds and found the fountain of youth. They claim the forty-three year old boxes like an up and coming twenty-seven year old.

Even though it is certainly evident that Hopkins is fighting at a much higher level than any other forty-three year old, the claims of his dominance in the ring are a bit far fetched.

The very first thing you need to look at is his last two wins. Tarver, a former world champion, had to lose a ton of weight before their 2006 bout and fought a slow, lethargic fight that allowed Hopkins to throw whenever he wanted and rest whenever he felt the need.

Now, some people will simply shrug off my analysis of the Tarver bout as crying over spilled milk (I actually picked Hopkins for the upset) but I feel if you take a peek back at Tarver’s last two fights against Woods and Dawson you will see Tarver is a shell of his former self and has his own fair share of trouble pulling the trigger.

In Hopkins’ other win over Winky Wright, he was facing a fighter that moved up in weight (hey, isn’t Kelly Pavlik moving up in weight?) and had an extremely defensive style of fighting. Once again, the style of Wright allowed Hopkins to dictate the pace and throw when he wanted and rest whenever he felt the need.

Even his decision loss at the hands of Joe Calzaghe was against a 36-year old fighter who was making the leap up in weight from the super middleweight division to the light heavyweight limit of 175-pounds.

I believe Hopkins has been able to compete at a higher level than most anticipated because he has recently faced fighters (Wright & Tarver) with styles that complimented his own.

If you go back and look at the two Taylor fights and his recent loss to Calzaghe, you will find that both Taylor and Calzaghe were much more active than Hopkins and try as he might, the old lion could not muster up the energy to fight three minutes of every single round.

Although I don’t believe Pavlik is as active inside the ring as Calzaghe, he certainly can match the activity level of a Jermain Taylor. I believe Pavlik’s activity level combined with his punching power will be more then enough to take Hopkins out of his comfort zone.

In my opinion the only chance Hopkins has to win this fight is by knockout (providing the three blind mice at ringside are on the level.) His five punches thrown per round (ok, maybe I am exaggerating just a bit) would not appear to be active enough in this fight to get him the nod if the fight goes to the cards.

In fact, I venture to guess that even if Hopkins were to win by knockout it would need to be of the one-punch variety. The reason I think a single shot KO is more achievable for Hopkins is because even if he were able to hurt or drop Pavlik I am not sure he has enough juice in the tank to finish the job!

Pavlik showed against Taylor in their first fight that he has great recuperative powers and I find it extremely difficulty to envision Hopkins putting together combination shots regardless of his opponent’s condition.

The one area of this fight that does trouble me a bit is the weight. Pavlik is a beast at 160-pounds but looked mediocre when he fought Taylor in the rematch at a special catch weight of 166-pounds. Now he heads even further north to 170-pounds to face the crafty vet Hopkins.

Pavlik claims that he was unable to be as effective as he would have liked against Taylor in the second fight because Jermain fought a more defensive style of fighting. If he thought Taylor fought defensively wait until he faces Hopkins!

The truth is, even the die hard “Ghost” supporters have to wonder if he will carry that tremendous punching power with him all the way up to 170-pounds.

Even if Pavlik should somehow bring his thunder with him to 170, there is still a real and present danger for him in this fight. The danger zone for the undefeated fighter from Ohio lies in any type of inside warfare with the cagey old vet.

Hopkins has often been criticized for being a “dirty” fighter. He is not afraid to hit his opponents low, come in with his head, and hold and maul his foe whenever they get close.

This “style” of fighting makes for horribly ugly bouts, but Hopkins has found a way to master this rough and tough inside game.

At his advanced fighting age he needs every advantage he can get, and his holding and hitting on the inside not only gives him the advantage of busting up the face of his opponents (he often can cause cuts by being rough on the inside) it allows him to control the punch output of his opponents.

If Pavlik falls into this trap set by Hopkins, he will be in for a very long night.

I always hate fights where I have a strong feeling the bout might head to the scorecards. I don’t like when the three blind mice get involved, and would prefer a legit stoppage win to a decision win any day.

However, the “give” that Hopkins displayed in the late rounds against Joe Calzaghe makes me wonder if the old timer has finally reached his limits. The “low blow” that was called late in that fight gave Hopkins a ton of time to rest and appeared on the surface to be a life saver for Hopkins.

He was fading badly down the stretch and Calzaghe was continuing to windmill his punches non-stop. Hopkins clearly could not keep up with the pace and for a minute there, the possibility of Hopkins finally being stopped inside the distance crept into my mind.

If the sand in Hopkins’ hourglass has indeed finally run out, I can visualize a badly fatigued Hopkins being stopped in the very late stages of the fight.

While the above scenario is technically possible, I still feel Hopkins craftiness and the catch weight of 170-pounds could severely hinder Pavlik’s ability to become the first fighter to stop Bernard Hopkins.

Boxeo: 2.20 Units Pavlik By Decision {-110}
Krakrabbit: .25 Units On Pavlik By KO Rounds 7-9 {+1012} & .25 Units On Pavlik By KO Rounds 10-12 {+1029}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Won’t Go 11.5 {+200}
Doody: 1.10 Units On Pavlik By Decision {-110}
D3: 1.10 Units On Pavlik By Decision {-110}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

This Saturday night the IBF & IBO light heavyweight titles will be on the line when Chad Dawson, (26-0, 17KO’s) faces off against veteran Antonio Tarver, (27-4, 19KO’s) live from the Palms Casino, Las Vegas, NV.

Dawson opened the contest as the clear favorite in the bout and currently rests at –260. Tarver supporters can grab +220 for their money. The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -220 and the under landing at +180.

Dawson by KO will net you +351, while Dawson by decision lands at +102. Tarver by KO hits the mark at +542, and Tarver by decision lands at +538. The odds the fight will be declared a draw are +2750.

It is clear from the opening line that oddsmakers are expecting a decision win for Dawson.

Dawson is the younger, faster, more skilled fighter in the match-up and will look to employ his quicker hand speed and better footwork to outwork Tarver over the course of the fight.

Although Tarver is coming off a lopsided decision win over Clinton Woods six months ago, I just don’t see anyway the thirty-nine year old Tarver will be able to keep up with his younger foe enough to win on the scorecards.

The “Magic Man’s” best opportunity to score the upset victory will lie in his two fists and the chin of Dawson.

Dawson has been put on the seat of his pants before, and Tarver has shown in the past he possesses enough dynamite in his gloves to get his opponents out of there.

The game plans are very simple in this fight. Tarver will need a knockout to win and Dawson has the ability to box the ears of off his ageing opponent. I would be surprised if the outcome ended up being anything other then Tarver by knockout or Dawson by decision.

Although Tarver is clearly the more established name in this match-up, recently he has appeared to be rapidly slowing down inside the ring.

Granted, he has faced the cream of the crop in Roy Jones jr., Glen Johnson, and Bernard Hopkins, but it is the lack of energy displayed inside the ring that have many experts calling the thirty-nine year old a shot fighter.

Even though Tarver supporters will likely point to the beating of Clinton Woods as proof that a motivated Antonio Tarver is still a dangerous light heavyweight fighter, I felt that performance was extremely lackluster.

On the night he squared off against Woods, he literally had a punching bag in front of him and still showed a tremendous lack of energy and appeared to be just going through the motions.

He was allowed to nail Woods with anything and everything he threw without ever worrying about any kind of an offensive assault from his foe. Yet, he still could only muster up enough energy to do so in short bursts.

It is important to remember that in his bout with Woods he was allowed to fight at his own pace. He punched when he wanted and rested when he wanted. Even when Tarver was considered to be the best in the division he was never a windmill when it came to punch output.

I can assure you that Dawson is going to set a pace inside that ring that Tarver will not be able to match.

Dawson will clearly have the advantage in work rate and if the bout goes to the scorecards one would expect if the fight were on the level (who knows what will happen when the three blind mice get involved) Dawson would have a clear advantage due to his higher punch output.

The only shot Tarver has to win this fight is to land his booming left hand (can anyone say Roy Jones Jr.) on the chin of Chad Dawson and put him to sleep.

With the way Dawson has reacted to punches in the past a one-punch knockout victory for Tarver is not out of the question. The thing that is in question is how long Tarver will possess enough energy to be able to land that shot and change the course of the fight.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Dawson By Decision {+120} (Vegas Odds)
Krakrabbit: 2.00 Units On Dawson By Decision {+120} (Vegas Odds)
Grass Hopper: 2.50 Units On Under 12 Full Rounds {+200} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Tarver {+220}
D3: 1.00 Units On Dawson By Decision {+120} (Vegas Odds)

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night (tape delayed in the U.S.) fight fans will be treated to the return of Vitali “Iron Fist” Klitschko, (35-2, 34KO’s) after almost four years out of the ring when he tackles heavy-handed Samuel “Nigerian Nightmare” Peter, (30-1, 23KO’s) From the O2 World Arena, Kreuzberg, Berlin, Germany.

The fight opened at almost dead even odds, but since then the line on Klitschko has steadily moved higher and higher, currently resting at the -180 mark. Peter supporters can grab the underdog cash at +155. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +175 and the over at -215.

Klitschko by KO comes in at +175, while Klitschko by decision will reward you with +329. Peter by KO hits the mark at +318, and Peter by decision lands at +823. The odds the fight is declared a draw land at +3000.

On Saturday Peter will have a second opportunity at defeating a Klitschko, something he failed to do back in 2005 when he faced Wladimir Klitschko.

Heading into the bout with Wladimir most experts predicted a stoppage win for the stout heavyweight. It is no secret that Wladimir has serious trouble in the chin and stamina departments, and with the heavy hands of Peter it appeared it would only be a matter of time before he landed something big to the chin of Wladimir and knocked him out.

Peter was able to land on the suspect chin of Klitschko and was even capable of knocking him down multiple times, but when he was not picking himself up off the canvas Wladimir controlled the fight from the outside, cracking peter with thunderous right hands as he marched forward.

In the end the boxing skills of Wladimir won out over the power punches of Peter and Klitschko went on to hand Peter his first professional defeat by unanimous decision.

Since that fight with Wladimir Klitschko, Peter has gone 6-0 with 2 knockout victories.

Although it is an understatement to say Peter has been more active (Vitali Klitschko has been retired from the sport for nearly four years!) it is important to note that he has not looked great in his last two fights.

First there was the unimpressive decision win over Jameel McCline, in a bout where he was put on the seat of his pants three separate times, and most recently a sixth round stoppage of Oleg “Dead Man Walking” Maskaev.

The three knockdowns suffered at the hands of the light hitting McCline raised serious questions about the perceived invincibility of Peter. Although he was on the losing end of a decision to Wladimir Klitschko, he did drop him three times over the course of the twelve round affair. Peter had no such luck against McCline, and was forced to outwork him over the twelve round distance.

Peter had a much easier time in his stoppage victory over Maskaev then in his bout against McCline, but the fact remains he still had rough patches against a limited boxer that was coming off a fifteen-month layoff.

Heading into Saturday’s showdown, there are no doubt a lot of questions surrounding both fighters. Not only has Klitschko been inactive for four years, but also his long history of suffering injuries inside and outside of the ring cannot be looked upon as a positive factor in the fight.

His four-year retirement was forced upon him by his body constantly breaking down during training camp, causing multiple postponements of bouts due to lower back and knee troubles.

In fact, one of his two losses came in a bout he was winning against Chris Byrd but had to retire in the corner due to a shoulder injury suffered during the fight.

His other defeat at the hands of Lennox Lewis came about due to a tremendous gash over his eye that forced the ringside physician to call a halt to the slugfest.

With that said, Peter is not without his own critics. The knock on Samuel is that he is a slow, defenseless, one punch slugger who tires after five rounds. A lot of his stamina issues are rumored to be because of his lack of dedication in the gym.

In fact, it is believed that Peter routinely comes into his training camp weighing close to 300 pounds! If that number is correct, he was able to drop forty-seven pounds in camp, weighing in at 253 pounds for this WBC title bout.

The argument for a Klitschko win is a simple one. If the soft punching McCline can drop Peter three times, the more powerful Klitschko can put him down and out.

You could also argue that Klitschko is the more mobile of the two and could conceivable outbox Peter and win on the scorecards.

I think Klitschko has a legit punchers chance to catch Peter and take him out. Of course, Peter will probably be looking to do the same and the first few rounds could end up being pure dynamite.

Although Klitschko has technically been stopped in both of his losses, I don’t feel he has a bad set of whiskers at all. His chin is certainly leaps and bounds above his brother Wladimir’s, and he was able to last the distance with Peter.

If anyone were to get stopped with one single shot I feel it would be Peter who hits the deck and stays there.

He did the drunken dance against Wladimir in the final round of their fight and did not recover well at all from the shots that McCline hit him with. In truth, if McCline had not gassed he probably would have stopped Peter.

Oleg “Dead Man Walking” was also able to shake him before Peter found his china chin and took him out.

Although Peter’s defense has always been very suspect, before his fight with Wladimir it was widely considered that Peter had an excellent chin. Maybe taking round after round of punishing hooks and right hands from Klitschko dented the beard of Peter more then we realized at the time?

Another important factor to look at in this fight is the pure size advantage that Klitschko holds over Peter. Klitschko stands roughly 6’7” tall and sports an impressive 80” reach. Peter on the other hand stands 6’0” tall and brings a 77” reach into the bout.

The size differential is important because Peter struggled with Wladimir (6’6”) and McCline (6’6”) both of whom are comparable in height and reach to Vitali.

After such a long layoff and numerous injuries there is simply no way to determine what Vitali Klitschko will bring to the ring on Saturday night.

Even though it has been rumored that during his four-year retirement from boxing Vitali never exceeded ten pounds over his fighting weight (he weighed-in at 247 for this fight) anyone backing Klitschko after such a long layoff is either doing so on blind faith or fading Peter.

I don’t bet blindly, so it’s evident my play on Klitschko is a fade against Sam Peter.

Boxeo: 5.00 Units On Klitschko By KO {+175}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Peter By KO {+318} & 1.00 Units On Klitschko By Decision {+329}
Grass Hopper: 5.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+175}
Doody: 1.50 Units On Klitschko {-150}
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+175}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night the HBO main event features a twelve round 154 pound battle between “Sugar” Shane Mosley, (44-5, 37KO’s) and Ricardo ‘El Matador” Mayorga, (29-6-1, 23KO’s) live from the Staples Center in Los Angeles California.

Mosley Opened about a 6-1 favorite over Mayorga but the public quickly jumped on that line, skyrocketing Mosley to a –900 favorite to defeat “El Matador” Saturday night. Mayorga gets the underdog cash at +600. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over landing at -135 and the under coming in at +155.

Mosley by KO comes in at -103, while Mosley by decision will get you +188. Mayorga by KO hits the mark at +983, and Mayorga by decision lands at +1457. The odds the fight is declared a draw currently rest at +4000.

Although both boxers have fought at 154 in the past, I do not feel it is the optimum weight for either fighter.

Mosley was simply a beast at the lower weights, and even after moving up to 147 pounds was still considered one of the best fighters in the world.

“Sugar” made the leap to 154 back in 2003, after losing back-to-back fights against Vernon Forrest at welterweight.

From 2002-2004 Shane Mosley went 1-4 with 1 no-contest. Not exactly a great way to launch your name back into the pound-for-pound limelight. Mosley was able to rebound from those disastrous two years, beating David Estrada, Jose Luis Cruz, Fernando Vargas, and Luis Collazo.

Up until his first victory over Vargas, Mosley was considered damaged goods. He was fighting at a weight (154) that did not suit his style, and he was looking average against mediocre competition. After he stopped Vargas in the tenth round due to a Rahman like swelling over Vargas’ eye, people sat up and started to take a closer look at “Sugar.”

However, since the bout was competitive on the scorecards leading up to the stoppage, Vargas and fight fans alike wanted to see a rematch between the two. Mosley quickly agreed and the two combatants raged war just five months later.

This time around it was all Shane Mosley. He battered Vargas for five rounds before starching the former champion with a single left hook in round number six.

After his destruction of Vargas there was talk of a Mayweather showdown, but for whatever reason (each side implies the other is ducking) the fight never came off. Instead of fighting Mayweather, Mosley wisely made the move back down to 147 and squared off with the tough Luis Collazo.

Collazo made a name for himself in a loss to Ricky Hatton. It was Hatton’s first attempt at the 147-pound weight class and Collazo gave him everything he could handle and more in their twelve round affair.

Although Collazo did not come away with the win, he was able to showcase his world-class speed and boxing skills to millions of people around the world. I guess Shane Mosley was one of those people watching because Collazo quickly got the call for Mosley’s return to welterweight.

Heading into his bout with Collazo many experts considered the fight to be a real test for the ageing former world champion. Mosley proved the critics wrong, putting on a masterful performance, dominating Collazo from start to finish.

After such a tremendous performance against a quality welterweight like Collazo people starting whispering that maybe Shane had turned back the clock and was once again going to be a force to reckon with at welterweight.

Mosley would waste no time in testing himself against of the best in the division, Miguel Cotto.

So in November of last year Mosley and Cotto waged war for twelve competitive rounds with Mosley coming out on the short end of a unanimous decision.

Although Mosley lost the fight on the judge’s scorecards (a lot of boxing fans had him winning) there is no doubt that he showed the world he could compete with the best the welterweight division had to offer.

Now, for some reason, he will take on Ricardo Mayorga at 154 pounds!

My only guess on why Shane would move back up to 154 after two magnificent performances at 147 is because Mayorga could not get back down to the welterweight limit of 147 pounds.

Mayorga’s most recent bout was his twelve round majority decision victory of Fernando Vargas back in November of 2007. For that fight Mayorga jumped all the way from 154 pounds to 166 pounds to challenge Vargas at a “special” catch weight.

The catch weight was a condition of Vargas if Mayorga wanted the fight. Even though Mayorga claimed he would weigh-in at 156 pounds for his bout with Vargas, when it was time to put down the turkey leg and hit the scales, Mayorga came in at 164 pounds, the exact same weight of Vargas!

The fact that Mayorga came into that bout weighing the exact same as Vargas had a bit of irony to it since Mayorga routinely called Vargas “fatty” during the promotion of the fight.

When the two fighters entered the ring it was nothing but a slow, plodding affair with both guys huffing and puffing for most of the fight. Mayorga came away with the close win on the cards, but the decision victory over the severely faded Fernando Vargas did little to enhance his reputation.

Although you can give Mayorga a pass for his average performance against Vargas at 166 pounds, there is no secret he did most of his quality work at 147 pounds. Since moving up to 154 and beyond, his power has drastically reduced inside the ring and he has taken his own fair share of beatings.

He was brutally knocked out in eight rounds by Felix Trinidad in Trinidad’s first fight back from a lofty two-year retirement, and Oscar De La Hoya flattened him in six rounds, knocking him down three times in the process.

While I certainly was not shocked that Trinidad was able to put Mayorga down and out, I was surprised at how easily Mayorga folded against Oscar De La Hoya. The brutal beat down at the hands of De La Hoya was undoubtedly an eye-opening event.

Oscar is certainly not known for his punching power at the higher weights, and when he hit Mayorga he dropped him like a rock. I honestly think the beating at the hands of “Tito” took something out of Mayorga and it wouldn’t be the first time Tito ruined a career (see David Reid and Fernando Vargas.)

With Mayorga’s wild style, there is a great possibility that Mosley will land at will as Mayorga plows forward. Even at 154 pounds, the speed advantage that Mosley will bring into the ring is incredible. He should easily be able to land three and four punch combinations and then get out of harms way.

Another significant tool at Mosley disposal is his wicked body punching. In his lighter days he was a vicious body puncher, but since he has bounced around in different weight classes he has not been as dedicated to the body as he was when he was younger.

The one spot Mayorga supporters may point to as a significant advantage that “El Matador” holds over Mosley is in the power department. Sadly, they would be mistaken if they feel Mayorga holds the edge in knockout power.

Since his recent move up to 154 and beyond, Mayorga has scored zero stoppages! You have to go way back to the year 2000 to find a fight where he weighed 154 or more and scored a stoppage win.

Shane is a very rugged and powerful fighter. I don’t believe it will be as easy as Mayorga supports think for him to get inside and just rough Mosley up without taking a huge toll on his own body.

While I don’t think the greatest strategy for Mosley to incorporate would be to stand and trade with Mayorga, if he chooses his spots wisely, he can get some serious work done on the inside and then move back outside to catch Mayorga as he marches forward.

Remember… there was a point and time in Shane Mosley’s career when he was considered one of the best, if not the best fighter in the world. He was lightning quick, possessed a wicked body attack, and punched with tremendous force.

I have a feeling Saturday night’s bout against Mayorga is going to be a brutal one-sided event with Mayorga succumbing to the speed and power of ‘Sugar” Shane before the final bell.

Boxeo Bets: 4.12 Units On Mosley By KO {-103}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Mosley By Decision {+188}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.00 Units On Mosley By Decision {+188}
D3: 1.00 Units On Mayorga {+600}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night on the undercard of Shane Mosley vs. Ricardo Mayorga, undefeated Andre Berto, (22-0, 19KO’s) will look to make the first successful defense of his WBC welterweight title against former lightweight world champion Steve “2-pound” Forbes, (33-6, 9KO’s.) The Berto /Forbes bout will take place live from the Staples Center in Los Angeles California and will be televised by HBO at 10:30pm ET/7:30PM PT.

Berto opened as a sizable favorite in the bout and currently sits at -1000. Forbes supporters can snatch the plus money + 650. The over/under for the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the over costing you -210, while the under comes in at +175.

Berto by KO comes in at +169, while Berto by decision will run you -134. Forbes by KO hits the mark at +1734, and Forbes by decision lands at +1017. The odds the fight will be declared a draw land at +4500.

Obviously, with such enormous odds on Berto the oddsmakers are expecting an easy decision victory for the young prospect. On paper it would appear Forbes' best opportunity to pull out the upset would be by decision.

The reason this fight is expected to go into deep waters is because Berto is in a real solid test against Forbes. The former lightweight champion of the world may not be as marketable as Berto, but the kid can fight!

“2 Pound” can be extremely hard to hit, and has very fast hands. The problem for Forbes in the Berto fight (all of his fights really) is his lack of punching power. Even though I am not sold on the building materials of Berto’s chin, I do not believe that Forbes possesses the power to expose any weakness Berto may have in the jaw department.

Although we pointed out the quickness that Forbes brings to the table, there is no question in my mind on Saturday night he will not only be outgunned, but will also be the slower fighter in the ring.

The one area where Forbes does excel over Berto is in the chin department. Forbes has never tasted the canvas as an amateur or a pro! In fact, you would be hard pressed to point to a time and place in his pro career when he has even been hurt.

The only way Forbes wins this fight is by decision and even that is going to be difficult. Berto has a very aggressive, crowd-pleasing style that would suggest Forbes is facing a real uphill battle to win on Saturday night. He will not be able to hurt Berto, and the rapid pace and fast combinations should give Berto the edge in scoring.

Although Berto is the naturally bigger man, I feel the key ingredient for a Berto win is his tremendous speed. Forbes has been in with much larger fighters before and has been able to hold his own but he was usually the fighter bringing the speed advantage to the dance. This time around he faces a bigger, stronger, faster fighter and I think he is going to have difficulty keeping Berto at bay.

I just believe everything Forbes can do Berto does a little bit better. I like him to control the action inside the ring and possibly even stop Forbes late the fight.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {+175}
Krakrabbit: 1.34 Units On Berto By Decision {-134}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {+175}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Forbes By Decision {+1017}
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {+175}

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night PPV main event features a lightweight contest between two battle-tested warriors, Joel Casamayor, (36-3-1, 22KO’s) and Juan Manuel Marquez, (48-4-1, 35KO’s) live from the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV.

Joel Casamayor opened as the underdog in the bout, but since the lined opened there has been nothing but Marquez money coming in. Currently he is a – 390 favorite to defeat Casamayor. Casamayor supporters can grab the underdog money at +320. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +300 and the over at -360.

Marquez by KO comes in at +417, while Marquez by decision will cost you -155. Casamayor by KO hits the mark at +524, and Casamayor by decision lands at +801. The odds of the bout being declared a draw land at +2500.

After his terrible performance against Jose Armando Cruz it was fully understandable why the oddsmakers opened Casamayor as an underdog against his less experienced opponent Michael Katsidis.

However, since his fight with Cruz (he did get the win) he went on to war with Katsidis, eventually knocking out his younger foe in ten brutal rounds.

While there is no questioning the pedigree that Juan Manuel Marquez brings to the dance, I am utterly shocked that Casamayor has stayed in the +300 underdog role for most of the time the betting line has been up.

If bettors are disregarding Casamayor’s ability to score the ‘upset” win over Marquez based solely on his struggles against Katsidis, I think they are making a grave mistake.

It is very important to note that the Michael Katsidis that fought Juan Diaz was nowhere near as effective or aggressive as he was against Casamayor.

When he faced off with Joel, he actually came to win! He came right out after Casamayor and even after being dropped twice in the first round refused to back off his attack. In fact, the brutal knockdown in the tenth round that sealed the deal was a direct result of Katsidis attacking Casamayor with reckless abandonment.

Fast-forward to Katsidis’ fight with Juan Diaz and it looks like a completely different fighter. He came into his fight with Diaz trying to box like Ali and gave away the first half of the bout. Even on the rare occasion when he did turn up the heat, the passion and relentless will to win was not present.

Although Casamayor’s bout with Katsidis was not smooth sailing, Juan Manuel Marquez recently had his own fair share of trouble with Manny Pacquiao. Marquez is coming off a twelve round split decision loss to Manny Pacquiao back in March of this year where he was dropped in the third round of the fight and badly cut over his right eye.

Even with the knockdown deduction it still appeared to my eyes that Marquez did enough effective counterpunching throughout the fight to eek out a close decision win.

Nevertheless, while Marquez has never been stopped in his four losses; recently he is taking more and more solid shots in his fights.

He tends to become more aggressive than necessary in his bouts, leaving himself open to countershots. His lack of defense while on the attack almost cost him a victory in his fight with Barrera.

After stunning the baby-faced assassin, Marquez was severely hurt and dropped (although it was not ruled a knockdown) trying to finish off his wounded opponent. Luckily for Marquez this action took place towards the end of the round and he was able to recover and go on to win the decision. Although the scores in the bout were extremely lopsided, many experts felt the fight was much closer than the three ringside judges indicated.

The other important factor to note is the style of Marquez. Marquez is not a “runner.” Even after being hurt and dropped by Barrera, Marquez came out for the next round standing right in front of Marco and even began trading with him again.

He displayed that same warrior mentality against Manny Pacquiao in the first round of their fight when he was dropped three times. Never did he try to hold “Pac Man” or run away, he stayed right in front of him and threw his own shots.

Now Marquez will move up five pounds to the lightweight division and test his beard against Joel Casamayor.

The move up in weight is something we have to take into consideration. We have no idea how Marquez will look at 135 and if Casamayor will be able to “bully” Marquez around the ring.

Granted, Casamayor was at one time a 130-pound fighter, but he has not fought at the 130-pound weight limit in four years.

Another possible factor in the fight is the southpaw stance of Casamayor. Out of the four losses suffered by Marquez, two have been to southpaws (also a draw with Pacquiao.)

We all know that if Casamayor senses a weakness in the game of Marquez he will instantly go on the offensive. If he feels Marquez cannot handle his physical strength he will press his attack and force Marquez to stand and trade. Should he figure out that Marquez has trouble stopping the straight left hand you can expect a great deal of left hands thrown right down the pipe.

Casamayor makes no bones about doing whatever it takes inside the ring to win. He is often penalized points for his roughhouse tactics and cuts resulting from head clashes seem to follow him wherever he goes.

With Marquez being cut very badly in the past, I would not be shocked to see someone bleeding in this fight before the halfway mark.

With the current odds sitting at over 3-1 I don’t see how you cannot back Joel Casamayor here? Excluding the Cruz fight, when does Casamayor get totally dominated inside the ring? Two of his three losses have come by split decision and that was against Jose Luis Castillo (before he was faded) and Diego Corrales.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Casamayor {+320} & 1.00 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full {+220}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Casamayor {+320}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full {+220}
D3: 1.00 Units On Casamayor {+320}

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday on the undercard of Casamayor vs. Marquez, fight fans will be treated to a world championship rematch in the 154-pound weight class between Vernon Forrest, (40-3, 29KO’s) and Sergio Mora, (21-0-1, 5KO’s.) live from the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV.

In the rematch the newly crowned champion Mora is still a slight underdog at +110, but the line is a far cry from his original +380 odds back in June. Forrest supporters (are there any still left out there?) are once again forced to lay the favorite line at -130. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +245 and the over at -290.

Forrest by KO comes in at +331, while the former champion by decision will net you +267. Mora by KO hits the mark at +981, and Mora by decision lands at +126. The odds of the bout being declared a draw land at +1600.

Here is the original preview I wrote about the first fight back in June of 2008!

Although there has been some late money coming in on Mora, I feel there are a few good reasons why the “Latin Snake” will have a very tough task beating Vernon Forrest. Although this bout will take place at 154 pounds, Mora has not been at or below that weight since he fought Ishe Smith way back in 2004.

Even though Mora insists that he always had an easy time making 160, coming down in weight may have an adverse affect on his biggest weapon…his legs!

As we all know, Sergio Mora’s biggest asset is being a slick boxer with a style that could certainly cure insomnia. His hit and don’t get hit style, combined with zero punching power, usually make for a very boring night of action whenever he enters the ring.

Speaking of punching power, with only five stoppages in his twenty wins, I think it is fairly safe to say there is zero chance Mora heads into this contest seeking a stoppage win over Forrest.

However, he is also facing an uphill battle if he expects to step into the ring Saturday night and outbox Forrest over the twelve round distance.

At one point and time Forrest was considered one of the elite fighters in the sport, but back to back losses to wild man Ricardo Mayorga, and a plethora of shoulder injuries tainted his status as one of the best fighters in the sport.

Forrest recently had surgery to correct those nagging injuries and looked the best he has in years defeating Carlos Baldomir and most recently Michelle Piccirillo.

Obviously this fight is more about how Forrest will win, not if he will win. For Forrest to stop Mora would be a real feather in his cap. Although I feel Mora is in way over his head against Forrest, throughout his short career, Mora has shown a solid chin and for the time being remains undefeated.

Forrest is a great boxer/counter puncher but I can foresee him having a difficult time chasing Mora around the ring all night in search of the stoppage. There is little doubt in my mind that Forrest will win the fight Saturday, but he will need to land his potent right hand often to keep Mora on the canvas.

With that said, even if Forrest is unable to seriously hurt Mora with his power shots, there is always the chance that Mora’s face begins to fall apart. Mora has been cut inside the ring before and Forrest is a very accurate puncher. If Vernon is able to land consistently on Mora, the above combinations could easily score a TKO win for Forrest.

Obviously I was way off base in predicting Forrest would cruise to an easy win over Mora. I do have to admit, in the early going it did appear as if Forrest was going to be able to take care of business and retain his title against Mora.

In the first half of the fight Forrest was able to land his right hand on Mora with relative ease. He was punching more then his challenger and controlling the tempo of the fight.

The tight grip Forrest had on the fight suddenly released in the second half of the bout when he began breathing like an elderly man connected to an oxygen tank.

As soon as Forrest began to gas Mora seized control of the fight by simply outworking the aging champion. He beat Forrest to the punch at almost every stage of the later rounds and closed the show the much fresher of the two.

Although Forrest looked like a faded fighter during the last half of the fight, the early work he produced in the bout almost allowed him to retain his titles. The scoring read 114-114, 115-113 and 116-112 for Mora.

Had Forrest won one more single round on the 115-113 judges card (John McKaie) he would have walked out of the Mohegan Sun Casino with a draw and his WBC light middleweight title wrapped around his waist.

The scoring is very important to note. If you ask most people about the first fight they will tell you Forrest faded and Mora took him to school, but the scores reflect a much closer fight then we remember.

For his part Forrest acknowledges Mora as being the better man on that night and points to over training as the sole source of his fading in the second half of the fight.

The rematch should tell fight fans all they need to know about the ability of Forrest to compete at this level. If he did over train for the first fight but comes out and takes care of business in the rematch, the career of Vernon “The Viper” Forrest will continue.

However, if he stumbles once again with Mora, there is not a soul in the business who will not be calling for his immediate retirement.

Although there is a real chance that Forrest is done as an elite level fighter, I just cannot bring myself to back Mora. I don’t find him to be exceptionally skilled and he has zero punching power.

Mora also had a tough time making the agreed upon weight limit. He came into the weigh-in over the 154-pound weight limit by two pounds and after one hour of drying out made the super welterweight limit.

As I touched on in my original preview, coming down in weight may have an adverse affect on his biggest weapon…his legs!

Granted, Mora was able to get the job done in the first fight by the skin of his teeth, but if Forrest has anything left in the tank he should be able to win a few more rounds this time around with his harder, more effective punching.

Boxeo Bets: .50 Units On Forrest By Decision {+267}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Forrest By Decision {+267}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Forrest {+110} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Mora By Decision {+126}
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 {+250}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night on Showtime, fight fans will be treated to a world championship bout in the 135-pound weight class between champion Nate Campbell, (32-5-1, 25KO's) and speedy challenger Joan Guzman, (28-0, 17KO's) live from the Beau Rivage Resort & Casino, Biloxi, Mississippi.

The newly crowned champion opened as the underdog in the bout and public money has continued to flow in on the challenger, knocking Nate Campbell’s number up to + 170. Guzman supporters will have to lay -200. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +250 and the over at -300.

Guzman by KO comes in at +497, while the challenger by decision will cost you -107. Campbell by KO hits the mark at +508, and Campbell by decision lands at +389. The odds of the bout being declared a draw land at +2250.

As you can see by the betting line, these two fighters each pose serious danger to one another. Guzman is the slick boxer with the superhuman speed, and Campbell can be an aggressive, in your face fighter that will hit you anywhere and everywhere for as long as he can.

Both fighters bring quality skills to this affair and this is the main reason why many boxing “experts” are split on who gets the win Saturday night.

It would appear Guzman’s best chance of beating Campbell would be to stick to his hit and not get hit style. He is the much quicker fighter in the bout, and also possesses a great deal of quality footwork.

He has always had a natural talent for landing rapid-fire combinations on his opponents and then sneaking away, but his recent acquisition of Floyd Mayweather Sr. can only improve his overall effectiveness with this type of style.

For Campbell he can only win this fight one way…going forward! Campbell must use his physical size advantage and harder punches to wear Guzman down enough where he can start to land cleanly on him.

Although Campbell is the bigger fighter, I do not think he has any chance of trying to lure Guzman in, an attempt to counter him. Guzman is simply too fast for Campbell to do anything but march forward and bang away.

Even though Campbell knows what to do, it is very hard to hit Guzman cleanly with even a single shot. He has a natural ability to move just enough that his opponents punches sail over his head or fly past his face. Campbell must be focused and prepared to throw in combinations if he wishes to land enough punches to wear Guzman down.

Heading into this fight, one of the biggest assets for Campbell may have nothing to do with his overall skills. Guzman is moving up in weight again and has already shown a serious decline in punching power as he has marched up the weight class ladder.

You have to wonder how far Guzman can continue to move up before the overall strength and punching power of his opponents becomes too much for him to handle.

Both of these fighters know how to win and have competed at very high levels. However, Campbell is without a doubt best known for his knockout loss at the hands of Robbie Peden. It wasn’t so much that Campbell lost to Peden that shocked the boxing community, but the way it happened that is forever etched in the minds of boxing fans.

Campbell appeared to have the bout in hand when for some baffling reason he dropped his hands and stuck out his chin, inviting Peden to try his hand at knocking him out. Peden obliged, and did just that…stopping Campbell in one of the more memorable boxing moments.

I am certain a lot of people lost a great deal of money on Campbell’s inexplicable actions, and whenever you look back at the career of the “Galaxxy Warrior” that fight is certain to stand out.

If Campbell knows what’s good for him he will not try any high jinks against Guzman!

This fight is certainly a contrast in styles. The winner will be the fighter that was able to impose their style and dictate the pace. Guzman can do this by firing off combinations and then moving away. Campbell will need to be set to punch and will have to reset every time Guzman moves.

For Campbell to impose his will, he must force Guzman into exchanges and try to trap him along the ropes where he can fire his powerful shots on a more stationary target.

I think it is going to be a really tough task for Campbell to lure Guzman into his type of fight. I believe there may be occasions where Guzman stands and trades, but I don’t think Mayweather Sr. will allow him to do this on a regular basis. Even though the occasions may be far and few between, whenever he does stand and trade leather, Campbell must take advantage of the opportunity to hit Guzman flush.

I can easily see Guzman frustrating Campbell by hitting and not getting hit. His quick hands and equally quick feet should allow him to stay out of harms way for the most part. His biggest dangers are letting Campbell get too close and trying to bang with the naturally bigger man.

Boxeo: 3.21 Units On Guzman By Dec {-107} & 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 {+250}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Campbell {+170}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 2.00 Units On Guzman {-200}
D3: 2.00 Units On Guzman {-200}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night HBO main event features a lightweight contest between Juan “Baby Bull” Diaz, (33-1, 17KO’s) and knockout artist Michael Katsidis, (23-1, 20KO’s) live from the Toyota Center, Houston, Texas.

Although both are coming off their first professional losses, Diaz opened as the clear favorite in the bout and currently rests at – 400. Katsidis supporters can grab the underdog money at +310. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +125 and the over at -145.

Katsidis by KO comes in at +475, while Katsidis by decision will reward you with +839. Diaz by KO hits the mark at +131, and Diaz by decision lands at +350.

Although both fighters enter this contest after suffering devastating defeats, the truth is Katsidis has not looked great in his last two outings. Previous to his war with Joel Casamayor, Katsidis had an extremely difficult time against Czar Amonsot.

Katsidis struggled early against Amonsot, and showed a serious lack of defense throughout the entire bout. His lack of being able to move his face away from the leather hurling towards him has caused his face to swell and cut in numerous fights. The fight with Amonsot was no exception. From early on in the contest Katsidis was forced to fight with his eyes swollen and his face shredded.

Many ringside observers, as well as fight fans watching at home, could not believe their eyes when round after round Katsidis was allowed to continue fighting even though his face was a bloody mess.

Even though Katsidis came away from the bout with the victory, he certainly did not display the kind of attributes that I felt would be needed to beat Casamayor.

When Michael Katsidis opened up as the favorite over Joel Casamayor I knew I would be playing the underdog on that night.

On the night of the fight things could not have started any better for those bettors fading Katsidis. His face first style played right into the hands of the slick, counterpunching of Casamayor, and before you knew it Katsidis had hit the deck twice in the very first round of the fight!

However, Katsidis showed his true grit in his bout against Casamayor, refusing to let his opportunity for a victory fade away. He battled Casamayor toe-to-toe and even dropped the crafty veteran in the sixth round of the bout.

Going down the stretch the fight appeared to have been fought on even terms. Katsidis continued to press forward and Casamayor continued to try and land crisp counters as his foe marched ahead.

In the tenth round of the bout Casamayor caught Katsidis with a beautifully timed countershot that instantly crumpled the previously undefeated Katsidis to the canvas.

Although the brave Katsidis once again climbed to his feet, it was only a matter of seconds before the referee was jumping in to save him for anymore brutal punishment. He would go on to lose his first professional fight by stoppage at the hands of Joel Casamayor.

Now, just six months later he will try to get back to his winning ways against Juan “Baby Bull” Diaz.

Juan Diaz’s fighting style is not unlike Michael Katsidis’ fighting style. The mirror image these two display inside the ring is the major reason fight fans are so hyped about the battle between the once beaten fighters.

Diaz is an in your face, pressure type of fighter. It is easiest to describe Juan as a bigger Wayne McCullough, with more power. He will come right out after Katsidis and look to make it a slugfest from the start.

Although Juan may have more power then McCullough, for his weight class, he is not considered a big puncher. He simply overwhelms his opponents with non-stop punching from start to finish.

His non-stop punching technique carried him to numerous titles and an undefeated record, but the “Baby Bull” finally met his match last March when he stepped into the ring against Nate Campbell.

Diaz opened that fight as a ridiculous –800 favorite and it wasn’t long before a ton of Campbell money had rushed in, quickly dropping Diaz to –450.

With such crazy odds and the pure talent level of Campbell, it was pretty much a no brainer to put something on Campbell to score the upset win.

Right from the start of the contest Diaz and Campbell went into the trenches and began to war. Diaz did what he always does and threw punch after punch while Campbell picked his shots more carefully, dropping heavy thunder whenever the opportunity presented itself.

Diaz was cut over his left eye in the very first round of the contest from a headbutt and that eye began to increasingly swell shut as the rounds progressed.

The entire fight was fought at a tremendous pace and Campbell was able to implement a tremendous body attack that slowly began to wear the “Baby Bull” down.

Just as Katsidis was forced to dig down deep in his battle with Casamayor, Diaz also showed the heart of a warrior, refusing to stop trying to impose his will on Campbell.

Unlike Diaz’s previous opposition, Campbell refused to wilt under the intense pressure from Diaz and would go on to win a split decision victory.

There is little doubt in my mind that this fight will produce fireworks. Katsidis does not know how to take a backwards step and Diaz proved in his loss to Campbell that he is not lacking in either the chin or the heart department.

Although there is a slim chance Diaz may try to mix in a little boxing with his brawling, neither of these guys is the next Floyd Mayweather Jr. If either guy should try to mix in some movement and counterpunching techniques it won’t last very long. Their pure boxing skills are not adequate enough to keep their opponent at bay all night. The name of the game for these two fighters is unadulterated, aggressive pressure!

With that said, I feel the fight will undoubtedly be decided in the trenches. Juan applies so much pressure that his opponents are forced to try and match him punch for punch or risk being pummeled along the ring ropes. He is a non-stop punching machine, and even though he has very little one-punch knockout power, he can score stoppages by battering and tiring out his opponents.

Katsidis is one of the few opponents that Diaz will have faced that welcomes an opportunity for an all out toe-to-toe war every time he steps into the ring. Usually when Diaz is allowed to get into his pressure-fighting mode the conditioning of his opponents are severely tested.

Most of the time his rivals cannot match him in the workrate department and as the rounds go by they get deeper and deeper into a scoring deficiency. The combination of absorbing a million shots, and knowing you are losing badly on the scorecards tends to quickly wear a fighter down physically and mentality.

On Saturday night I am not so sure he is going to have that huge advantage over Katsidis. Katsidis likes to throw down just as much as Diaz but also brings explosive punching power to the dance.

However, we all know Katsidis has never met a punch he didn’t like. The problem with his type of fighting style is his face falls apart at the sight of a flush punch and his defense is non-existent.

While Diaz is certainly far from a defensive wizard, he does tend to block punches very well with his gloves. If Diaz is on his game (did the beatdown at the hands of Campbell take something out of him?), he should have many opportunities to land leather on Katsidis as they stand face to face.

While I certainly would be shocked to see the Baby Bull lay Katsidis out with a single shot, I do think his non-stop aggression can force Katsidis to fight at a faster pace then he is accustom to, amplifying his lack of defensive skills.

Even if Diaz is unable to hurt Katsidis when he lands, as long as he continues to touch him over and over again, there is great probability that Diaz will be able to slice and dice the face of Katsidis to shreds.

The one saving grace for Katsidis supporters is his power. Diaz will be there to be hit and Campbell showed that you could find the Baby Bull to both the head and body. I feel if Katsidis is going to rebound from his first professional loss it is going to have to be by knockout.

Because both guys like to duke it out Mano y Mano and will surely be moving forward, I would not be shocked to see blood and/or swelling from one or both fighters very early in the fight. It is for the reason I am going to play the under in this clash and hope the fireworks start early on Saturday night.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160} (Vegas Odds)
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units Diaz By Decision {+350}
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160} (Vegas Odds)
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+160} (Vegas Odds)

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night HBO co-main event features veteran Jorge Barrios, (47-3-1, 34KO’s) facing off against the real life “Rocky”, Rocky Juarez, (27-4, 19KO’s) live from the Toyota Center, Houston Texas.

When the lines first opened Barrios was installed as almost a 2-1 favorite over Juarez. However, Rocky Juarez money continued to trickle in and a late rush of coin on Juarez knocked his odds down considerably to just even money (+100.) Barrios remains a very slight favorite at –120. The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over at -300 and the under coming in at +250.

Barrios by KO comes in at +441, while Barrios by decision will net you +148. Juarez by KO hits the mark at +584, and Juarez by decision lands at +222. The fight being declared a draw lands at +1600.

Although Juarez does not possess as many professional bouts as his opponent Barrios, he does bring a lot of ring experience for a guy with only thirty-one fights. He was a decorated amateur, and even managed to win a silver medal at the Olympics.

With his successes in the amateur ranks, Juarez had high expectations going into the early part of his pro career. Unfortunately, Juarez has not lived up to those expectations, and now tries to get back to his winning ways after losing his last three out of five fights.

To have any chance at getting another world title opportunity Juarez must defeat Jorge “ La Hiena” Barrios, a veteran of fifty-two professional fights.

Although Barrios brings tremendous experience to his clash with Juarez, Rocky knows what it’s like to battle an old vet inside those ring ropes. He clashed with former world champion Marco Antonio Barrera not once, but twice.

Their first meeting was one of the better performances from Juarez. He battered and bloodied Barrera whenever the ageing vet tried to stand toe-to-toe with his younger foe. However, being the veteran that he is, Barrera quickly realized that he could not fend off the young lion on the inside, and boxed his way to a disputed twelve round decision win.

With the fight being so close in many people’s eyes, Barrera and Juarez agreed to get it on one last time. This time Barrera never stood and traded with Juarez and easily out boxed him over the distance. The differences between the two performances are night and day.

In the first bout Juarez let his hands go whenever Barrera was in range. In the second fight Juarez elected to follow Barrera around the ring and never threw any punches. This is the biggest problem with Rocky Juarez; he is too patient of a fighter. He is always looking for that perfect shot and the next thing he knows the bell has sounded to end the fight and he has done little but follow his opponent around the ring.

After his disappointing losses to Barrera, Rocky waited just about one year before squaring off with Juan Manuel Marquez for the WBC featherweight championship of the world.

Before the boxers were even able to get into a fighting groove, Juarez was on the receiving end of an accidental clash of heads that opened a nasty gash over his left eye in the very first round of the fight.

Rocky claimed the butt caused his vision to blur and hindered his ability to force Marquez into a slugfest.

Regardless if the butt did alter the fight for Juarez or not, the fact of the matter is he is simply way too patient inside the ring. He allows his opponents to outwork him as he walks forward but does not cutoff the ring or punch as he advances.

It is extremely frustrating to watch a talented fighter that appears to have some type of disconnect in the mental department. Juarez has had four losses in his career and all but the first Barrera fight can be directly attributed to his lack of punch output.

The movement that frustrated Juarez in his rematch with Barrera and in his last outing against Juan Manuel Marquez may be present when he battles Barrios on Saturday night.

A lot of people think of Barrios as just a straight-ahead, in your face, type of fighter. On the contrary, he will get on his toes and fight from the outside. Granted, he is nowhere near the level of boxer as Barrera or Marquez, but I would be surprised if Barrios came right out after Juarez looking to make a street fight.

I personally believe Barrios will look to box Juarez instead of coming right at him in a toe-to-toe slugfest. Barrios likes to throw wide looping punches and he can best achieve positive results from those types of punches on the outside.

As I mentioned earlier, Juarez is known as a plodder who walks forward without throwing any punches. If he does that against Barrios it will allow La Hiena to tee off on him with haymakers as he walks forward.

I don’t feel Barrios can afford to trade shot for shot with Juarez at all. The reason I think it would be a mistake for Barrios to turn this fight into a knockdown, drag out fight has nothing at all to do with pure punching power. We all know Barrios can crack, but I think he is sporting a weaker chin and also has a tendency to cut in his fights.

Barrios has been on the seat of his pants in a few fights and was stopped by Acelino Freitas in the twelfth and final round of their fight (after putting Freitas on the deck twice) but it may be his tender skin that becomes his undoing should he elect to stand and fight with Juarez.

For all of Rocky Juarez’s shortcomings inside the squared circle, the kid can punch. I would not be shocked to see Juarez slice the face of Barrios with ease if the two begin to trade powershots.

If that isn’t enough for Barrios to worry about, he also heads into this fight coming off a year and a half layoff. He was actually the one who was suppose to face Juan Manuel Marquez (Rocky Juarez stepped in) but the bout was cancelled when it was determined that Barrios had retina tears in both eyes!

The bad news doesn’t stop there for Jorge Barrios. On Friday he had trouble making the 130-pound limit and for a split second it appeared as if the fight would need to take place at 133-pound catch weight.

Somehow Barrios was able to suck it up and hit the scales right at the 130-pound weight limit. Even though he managed to get down to the contracted weight, you have to wonder how the ring rust and weight drain will affect his ability to compete as the rounds wear on.

Even though Barrios can also punch with massive force, Juarez has tasted defeat four times at the hands of Humberto Soto, Barrera (twice) and Juan Manuel Marquez. In all of those bouts he was able to walk right through everything that was thrown his way (and often landed) without really facing any danger of being stopped.

The closest he came to losing inside the distance was in his last fight with Marquez and that was essentially because his corner could not get his cut left eye under control.

The lack of solid cutwork in the corner of Juarez is a big sticking point for me regarding this fight. I thought the corner of Juarez did a horrible job with the cut and it was not uncommon to see the eye bleeding just as bad after the corner did their “work” as it was when the round ended.

Barrios can be at times a very rough (some might say dirty) fighter. Depending on how Barrios opts to fight, I would not be surprised if a headbutt happens sometime before the middle rounds of the contest.

Of course, for any Juarez victory he must let his hands go. He has once again promised to be more active, but it’s hard to teach old dogs new tricks. While Juarez would be greatly served to punch as much as possible, I am not sure if his demeanor will allow it.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Juarez By KO {+584} & 1.00 Units On Won't Go 12 Rounds {+250} (Vegas Odds)
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Barrios By Decision {+148}
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Won't Go 12 Rounds {+250} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Won't Go 12 Rounds {+250} (Vegas Odds)
D3: 1.00 Units On Juarez By Decision {+222}

Germany Predictions
By Boxeo

On Saturday night John Ruiz, (43-7-1, 29KO’s) returns to action in a rematch against former WBA heavyweight champion Nikolay Valuev, (48-1, 34KOs) live from the Max Schmeling Halle, Prenzlauer Berg, Berlin, Germany.

Valuev opened as the clear favorite in the bout and money has continued to trickle in on the “Giant” knocking his number up to –360. Ruiz supporters can snatch the underdog money at + 300. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at a whopping +410 and the over at -515.

Valuev by KO comes in at +364, while Valuev by decision will cost you -137. Ruiz by KO hits the mark at +1281, and Ruiz by decision lands at +400. The odds the fight will be declared a draw land at +2200.

While the style of Ruiz can only be described as atrocious, he has become a master at the one-two-hold method. It would appear Ruiz has stumbled onto a technique (can you call it that?) that can frustrate every fighter from journeymen status to world-class champions.

With the exception of the David Tua loss (KO 1) and the Roy Jones Jr. loss (L UD), most of his losses have come by split decision or Majority decision. There is no question Ruiz knows how to maximize the effectiveness of his hit and hold style.

Usually Ruiz will take a few rounds to get his hugging action into full swing. He is much more effective with his unpleasant system as the rounds wear on. I believe a lot of his effectiveness in the mid to late rounds has to do with the mauling and ugly infighting he delivers over the course of the first half of the fight.

It takes a tremendous amount of energy to try and keep Ruiz off of your chest for an entire fight, and try as they might, most of his opponents find themselves fading as the rounds wear on.

Because of his freakishly large frame, Nikolay Valuev has a tremendous height and reach advantage that most of Ruiz’s opponents do not possess. However, Ruiz was able to crowd the Giant in their last fight and was very successfully in taking Valuev out of his game plan. I can honestly say I doubt there are many fighters in the sport that can keep Ruiz at bay.

In fact, Ruiz was so productive with his “huggy” style that the 7’0 colossal Nikolay Valuev was forced to settle for a majority decision win even though he was fighting on his home court in Germany.

Ruiz insists that he is not the one doing the holding in his bouts but it is in fact his opponents who hold him! While there is no question Ruiz initiates most, if not all of the clinches in his fights, it is an effective style that has allowed him to compete with some of the biggest names in the sport.

Ruiz promises to forgo any holding in his rematch with Valuev and feels his only opportunity to walk out of Germany as the new WBA heavyweight champion of the world (the fight is for the vacant WBA belt) is to stop the Giant dead in his tracks.

I personally feel Ruiz should not change his “huggy” style one bit for this fight. It has worked well for him throughout his career and many people feel he did more then enough back in 2005 to defeat Valuev.

To decisively defeat the one-two-hold style of Ruiz, you need a fighter like Roy Jones Jr. who was able to use his speed and mobility to stay as far away from Ruiz as possible to neutralize “Huggy Bear.” Any heavyweight that stands in front of him will always be susceptible to being held.

I think it’s safe to say that Valuev should never be mentioned in the same breath as Roy Jones Jr. but he does enjoy a crucial advantage over Ruiz in this fight and that is the location of the bout!

Just as in the first fight, Valuev will once again be fighting in his backyard at the Max Schmeling stadium in Germany.

The location of this contest cannot be taken lightly for anyone backing Ruiz. Although Ruiz has stated he will be seeking a stoppage win, he is not a huge heavyweight and does not bring serious firepower into the ring.

It would appear for Ruiz to defeat Valuev he will need to get some love from the three blind mice at ringside. I think the location of the fight is the main reason why you see such high odds on Ruiz straight and also by decision. The oddsmakers understand that Ruiz is fighting an uphill battle if he cannot put the giant to sleep.

Boxeo: 1.37 Units On Valuev By Decision {-137}
Krakrabbit: 2.74 Units On Valuev By Decision {-137}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.37 Units On Valuev By Decision {-137}
D3: 1.37 Units On Valuev By Decision {-137}

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

On Saturday night Ivan “Iron Boy” Calderon, (31-0, 6KO’s) returns to action in a rematch against former WBO champion Hugo “El Increible” Cazares, (26-4-1, 19KOs) live from the Ruben Rodriguez Coliseum, Bayamon, Puerto Rico.

Calderon opened as the favorite in the bout and money has continued to flow on “Iron Boy” knocking his number up to –240. Cazares supporters can grab the underdog money at + 200. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +250 and the over at -300.

Calderon by KO comes in at +623, while Calderon by decision will cost you -138. Cazares by KO hits the mark at +429, and Cazares by decision lands at +623. The odds the fight will be declared a draw land at +1800.

Just as I touched upon in the Ruiz/Valuev bout, location plays a huge roll in this fight. Ironically both of these rematches (Ruiz/Valuev and Calderon/Cazares) are being held in the exact same arena as their original fight.

The biggest difference between the two underdogs (Ruiz & Cazares) is the fact that Cazares has the size advantage over his opponent and brings real one-punch stopping power to the contest.

It’s certainly no secret that Cazares has a terrible time making the 108-pound weight limit. He had trouble making the weight in their first fight and is having another difficult time trying to get down to the limit for the rematch.

Nevertheless, as he showed in the initial meeting with Calderon, when he steps inside the ring on fight night he looks as strong as ever and is able to put on stern pressure for twelve hard rounds.

There were many times in their first fight where it appeared Calderon was on his way out. Cazares has very heavy hands and once they stepped inside the ring the power and size difference between the two boxers was tremendous.

Calderon was able to survive those very rocky moments in the fight by doing his best John Ruiz impersonation (holding, holding, and more holding) but it was very evident that as the rounds progressed Calderon was having more and more difficulty fending off Cazares.

There were also a couple of very close “slips” throughout the fight that could have easily been ruled knockdowns. Once again questions were raised about the location of the fight and if Calderon was being given every benefit of the doubt possible.

Even with only one knockdown being “official” and fighting with his home court advantage, Calderon was still only able to muster up a close split decision victory over Cazares.

Even though I feel Cazares can knockout Calderon, It is going to be tough for him to get that clean shot on “Iron Boy” because there is no question Ivan Calderon is not afraid to hold or run if he feels things are getting out of hand inside the ring.

There are people out there who truly respect the style of Calderon, and while I certainly agree that Calderon has very nice boxing ability, I don’t like the fact that he often runs (backpedaling without punching) for very long stretches of his fights and holds whenever the opportunity presents itself.

It is not out of the question that Cazares could beat Calderon in Puerto Rico. He could simply knockout Calderon and take the result out of the judges hands, or he could put Calderon on the seat of his pants a few times (if they are actually counted as knockdowns this time) and force Calderon to retreat the entire fight and win on the cards.

What a minute… that scenario sounds a lot like how the first fight played out but it was Calderon who ended up winning on the cards!

Of course Cazares supporters are hoping his power comes through and he is able to finish the job this time around. Regardless of how it happens, I think Hugo “El Increible” Cazares takes back his WBO flyweight title that was stolen from him one year ago.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Cazares By KO {+429}
Krakrabbit: 1.38 Units On Calderon By Decision {-138}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.38 Units On Calderon By Decision {-138}
D3: 1.38 Units On Calderon By Decision {-138}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night HBO main event showcases welterweights Zab “Super” Judah, (36-5, 25KO’s) and Joshua “Hitter” Clottey, (34-2, 20KO’s) squaring off for the vacant IBF welterweight championship of the world live from the Palms Casino, Las Vegas, NV.

Clottey opened the contest as a very slight favorite, but Clottey fans have continued to push the line higher and he currently rests at –250. Judah gets the underdog cash at +210. The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over landing at -140 and the under coming in at +120.

Clottey by KO comes in at +175, while Clottey by decision will get you +179. Judah by KO hits the mark at +636, and Judah by decision lands at +400. As you can see from the posted odds, this bout is expected to go deep into the fight.

Although Judah should be considered the more skillful fighter in this welterweight match-up, there is no question he certainly is not the more consistent fighter.

Over the last seven fights Judah has gone a dismal 3-3 with one no contest. One of those three losses was a brutal beat down at the hands of Miguel Cotto that resulted in an eleventh round TKO loss for “Super” Judah.

Clottey on the other hand has gone 6-1, with his lone loss via unanimous decision at the hands of Antonio Margarito.

The bout against Antonio Margarito was a fight he was easily controlling until he hurt both hands and was unable to throw powerful combinations as he had earlier in the fight. The “loss” did not really hurt Clottey because it was so evident that he had the ability to compete with anyone at 147 pounds.

Zab Judah also has the skills to compete with anyone in the welterweight division, but he has only proven his ability to contend with the best for the first six rounds of the bout!

Time and time again Judah hits an invisible wall as the fifth and sixth rounds approach and suddenly his punch output, as well as his punch resistance, drop like a rock.

With the documented cases of Judah having extreme difficulty the longer the fight goes this may seem like a relatively easy fight to pick, but there are always two sides to every story.

Although I consider Clottey to be the more stable fighter in the ring, he is not without his own glaring deficiencies.

He will bring into his bout against Judah two awfully brittle hands that could alter the course of the fight at any given time.

Even though Clottey does not appear to hit a “wall” as the bout progresses, he does tend to take large portions of the rounds off where he will go extremely defensive, allowing his opponents to outwork him.

One huge asset for Clottey in this bout will be his extremely durable beard. Although Judah can crack with the best of them at 140 and 147 pounds, I would be very surprised if he was able to put Clottey on the seat of his pants.

With Judah coming in at 143 pounds, I feel that is a clear indicator that he will be looking to outbox his slower opponent and win on points.

Although there are serious questions regarding the chin of Judah, Clottey lands his punches with authority but is not a one-punch knockout artist.

I feel this fight will come down to how long Judah is able to fend off the fade demon.

If Judah is in real fighting shape (mentally & physically) and does not fatigue as the second half of the fight begins to play out, I think he has an excellent opportunity to take advantage of the many times where Clottey goes completely defensive.

The times where Clottey goes into his defensive shell are so numerous I honestly feel it could lose him the fight!

Judah is going to bring some serious speed and power into this fight and if his mind and body are “right”, he will be able to land flashy combination shots whenever Clottey goes into his guard.

You will notice that the entire game plan for Judah revolves around him being fit to fight. We all know physically he has the tools to get the job done, but whenever Zab Judah fights it is very important to take into consideration the questions marks surrounding him.

I think Judah knows if he is unable to defeat Joshua Clottey Saturday night it will probably be his last opportunity to dance on the big stage. If he ever needed motivation to get his butt in gear he should have it when he steps in the ring against Clottey for the vacant IBF championship of the world.

Now all Zab “Super” Judah needs to do is go out and showcase his world-class skills for more then six rounds of a fight. The question is…will he do it?

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Judah By Decision {+400}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Judah By Decision {+400}
Grass Hopper: 1.00 Units On Judah By Decision {+400}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Clottey by Decision {+179}
D3: 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 {+130}

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night HBO PPV main event features IBF welterweight champion of the world Antonio Margarito, (36-5, 26KO’s) squaring off against undefeated WBA welterweight champion of the world Miguel Cotto, (32-0, 26KO’s) live from the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV.

Cotto opened the contest as a very slight favorite, but the rabid Cotto fans have continued to push the line higher and he currently rests at –255. Margarito gets the underdog cash at +215. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over landing at -200 and the under coming in at +170.

Cotto by KO comes in at +243, while Cotto by decision will get you +134. Margarito by KO hits the mark at +378, and Margarito by decision lands at +800. As you can see from the posted odds, this bout is expected to go deep into the fight.

If you take a look at the above odds you will see just how closely the oddsmaker’s have set this line. Although Antonio Margarito has already been defeated five separate times and Miguel Cotto is currently undefeated at 32-0, 26KO’s, the bookmaker’s still only opened the Puerto Rican sensation as a very slight favorite in the fight.

At first glance the low opening odds on Cotto may seem strange. Cotto is undefeated, and only six boxers have managed to hear the final bell against him. His recent eleven victims include Randall Bailey, DeMarcus Corley, Mohamad Abdulaev, Ricardo Torres, Gianluca Branco, Paul Malignaggi, Carlos Quintana, Oktay Urkal, Zab Judah, Shane Mosley and Alfonso Gomez.

Out of all of the eleven recent bouts that Cotto has been involved in four really stand out. The first is the bout with Corley. Cotto struggled with Corley, he was seriously hurt in that fight, and for a brief second it appeared Corley was going to stop him. Cotto was able to withstand the attack from “Chop Chop” and went on to score a controversial stoppage in Puerto Rico.

He went life and death with Ricardo Torres, and was officially put on his bottom in that fight. He would once again gather himself and come back to score a highlight reel stoppage of the Columbian.

Two fights ago he stopped Zab Judah in the eleventh round of their contest, but was rocked on more then a few occasions, and had to walk through some heavy leather before finally taking “Super” Judah out.

After the Judah win Cotto remained undefeated eeking out a close unanimous decision win (115-113, 116-113, 115-113) over former pound for pound king Shane Mosley, in a bout many felt could have went “Sugar” Shane’s way.

There is no question Cotto has shown remarkable determination and courage in all of his bouts. Even if he is hurt, dropped, or cut he will continue to press after his opponent, looking to put an end to the fight. It is that determination that breaks down most fighters as the rounds wear on.

Now Cotto will test his resolve against Antonio Margarito Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

While Cotto was burning up the ring with his action packed thrillers, Margarito hit a major stumbling block back in July of 2007 when he ran into 6’1 welterweight Paul Williams.

Williams entered that bout sporting an impressive 32-0 record and took the fight to Margarito from the opening bell. For the first half of the fight it was a one sided affair with Williams simply outworking Margarito every step of the way. As the rounds wore on Margarito finally got into gear and his non-stop assault began to cause serious problems for Williams.

Unfortunately for Margarito his offensive assault came extremely late in the fight and in the end he came up short on the judge’s scorecards losing a unanimous decision.

The loss to Williams not only cost Margarito his championship title, it also effectively took Margarito out of the Cotto sweepstakes.

Although Margarito felt he did enough late in the fight to retain his title, he did acknowledge that he started exceptionally late in the fight with his full court press. He vowed that in future bouts fight fans would witness a “new” Antonio Margarito that would press the attack from the minute the bell sounded to start the bout.

Just four short months after the loss at the hands of Paul Williams, Margarito stayed true to his word about living up to his moniker the “Tijuana Tornado” and came out guns blazing against veteran Golden Johnson, stopping his overmatched foe in one single round.

Next up for Margarito was a rematch with Kermit Cintron. Margarito and Cintron waged war back in 2005 under the bright lights of Las Vegas with Margarito running right over Cintron in five brutal rounds.

Heading into that original fight many experts expected Cintron’s firepower to be the deciding factor in the fight. Margarito has never been mistaken for a defensive mastermind, and those picking Cintron felt Margarito’s inability to move out of the way of his opponent’s shots would ultimately be his undoing.

Of course we all know the experts got it wrong in that fight, but there is no mistaking the fact that Margarito’s defense is less then desirable.

In fact, in the rematch Cintron was able to connect flush with some serious thunder to the chin of Margarito but nothing he threw at Margarito could deter his fury. This time around Cintron would last a round longer, but the result would end up being the same with Cintron crumpled on the canvas and Margarito’s hands being raised in the air.

There is no secret to the style that Margarito brings into the ring. He simply presses forward and throws punches. His defense consists of taking everything his opponents can throw smack dab on the chin and smiling back at them.

Although Margarito has shown a solid chin throughout his career, I don’t believe the hype that he cannot be stopped. Early in his career he was put on the seat of his pants and in his bouts with Daniel Santos there were times where he was visible hurt.

Another major factor you must consider whenever Margarito fights is his propensity of getting cut. Although he has a solid chin, his face first style almost always guarantees some type of facial swelling, not to mention clashes of heads.

I have no doubt in my mind that Margarito’s chin will be put to the test once again on Saturday night. Although I believe Kermit Cintron is a much harder one punch power puncher then Miguel Cotto, it is the speed of Cotto that could cause serious problems for Margarito.

Miguel Cotto has tremendously underrated hand speed at welterweight. There is no question he will possess a huge edge in both hand and foot speed over Margarito. The biggest question heading into this fight is what kind of game plan has Cotto brought into this contest?

We all know that Cotto has some boxing ability but he appears to truly enjoy going into the lion’s den and fighting it out. Cotto has been a bit of a slow starter, and has been buzzed early in his bouts, but his body punching and effective aggression begin to pay dividends as the fight wears on.

In this super fight against Margarito, Cotto has more options should the going get tough. If he is unable to handle himself on the inside, he can switch it up and counterpunch from the outside, capitalizing on his hand and foot speed advantage.

Although Cotto possesses attributes that Margarito does not, I am by no means suggesting it is going to be a walk in the park for Miguel Cotto to beat Antonio Margarito.

I honestly feel that Cotto is going to come into this bout looking to counterpunch Margarito. Cotto knows that Margarito is going to press forward and look to turn this contest a street brawl.

A perfect example of how I think Cotto is going to approach this fight is in his last bout against Gomez. Gomez was a pressure fighter who came straight at Cotto. Even though Cotto had a huge power advantage over Gomez, he still chose to use his jab and hand/foot speed to counter Gomez as he advanced forward. Only when he had inflicted enough damage to render Gomez helpless did he finally go in for the kill.

Although Cotto will bring the quicker hands and feet to the dance, Margarito is four inches taller and has a six-inch reach advantage. The height and reach advantage of Margarito could end up throwing a wrench into Cotto’s plan of trying to outbox Margarito from the outside.

Most experts feel Cotto will be able to nail the slower Margarito at will and box his way with little trouble to a lopsided decision win. However, to think Cotto is just going to box circles around Margarito without difficulty is immensely short sided.

Even if Cotto is somehow able to effectively counterpunch his taller, longer armed foe, he is going to have to put enough dynamite in his shots to crumple Margarito to the canvas or attempt to box the entire night and win on the judge’s scorecards.

Should Cotto elect to box, I believe a major key for Margarito in this fight is going to be his jab. If Margarito presses the action, but does it behind his long left jab, I think he may take away the counterpunching ability of Cotto.

Six inches in reach would be tremendously difficult for Cotto to overcome on the outside. Margarito could simply pop that jab into the face of Cotto and force him to retreat or jump in and trade power shots.

However, if Margarito neglects the jab and does little more then follow Cotto around the ring, he will allow Cotto to fire off rapid combinations as he advances and then move out of the way of Margarito’s slow, wide punches.

Another important tool for Margarito will be his bodywork. While Cotto is certainly highly regarded for his body punches, Margarito is no slouch in the body department himself. I would not be surprised to see either fighter hurt in the midsection at any point in the fight.

If Margarito has pressed forward intelligently, I think the longer the fight goes the better the chances are for him to slowly wear Cotto down and stop him. In fact, I believe a stoppage victory is the only shot Margarito has at upsetting Miguel Cotto. Cotto is the superstar in this fight and I feel any close rounds will surely go his way.

With that said, even if Margarito is able to get his way and close the gap between himself and Cotto, he is going to pay a tremendous price for getting into an area where he can do serious work.

I can see this fight going either way. Cotto could box beautifully, slicing and dicing Margarito to shreds, or Margarito could walk through Cotto’s firepower with a smile on his face and slowly break Cotto down.

Although neither fighter has ever been stopped, I think somehow, someway, this thing ends before the final bell.

Boxeo: 3.00 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full {+115}
Krakrabbit: .50 On Margarito By KO {+400} (Vegas Odds)
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Margarito By KO {+400} (Vegas Odds) & 1.00 Units On Margarito By Decision {+800}
Doody: 2.00 Units On Margarito {+215}
D3: 2.00 Units On Cotto By Dec {+150}

FSN Predictions
By Boxeo

This Wednesday night two former champions collide when James “Lights Out” Toney, (70-6-3, 43KO’s) tackles Hasim “The Rock” Rahman, (45-6-2, 36KO’s) in a twelve round heavyweight showdown, live from the Pechanga Resort & Casino, Temecula, California.

The line opened with Rahman almost a 2-1 favorite to defeat James Toney, but as soon as the line was placed the Toney money came rushing in. Instead of almost a 2-1 favorite over Toney, Rahman now sits at just a –135 favorite. Toney supporters can still grab the underdog cash at +115. The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at –210 and the under landing at +175.

Rahman by KO comes in at +312, while Rahman by decision will get you +197. Toney by KO hits the mark at +500, and Toney by decision lands at +227. As you can see from the posted odds, this bout is expected to go deep into the fight.

This fight is actually a rematch of their twelve round heavyweight contest way back in 2006 that ended up being declared a draw. In the original bout I clearly remember scoring the fight for Rahman. I felt that he had outworked Toney over the distance and deserved to be declared the winner. However, the three blind mice at ringside thought otherwise and Rahman was forced to settle for a disputed draw.

Now, a little over two years later, the two flamboyant heavyweights get another chance to settle the score.

It still seems strange to me that we now call James Toney a heavyweight. While there is no question he certainly carries heavy weight into the ring, I think we all know James should not be fighting in the heavyweight division.

Since moving up to heavyweight back in 2003, James is 4-2-1, with one no contest. Of those four wins at heavyweight, Toney has only mustered up one single stoppage win. That stoppage victory came against future hall of famer Evander Holyfield in Toney’s first serious attempt at becoming a full-fledged heavyweight boxer.

Most recently Toney is coming off a close split decision victory over 25-4, Danny Batchelder. Toney came into that bout with a little less flab around the midsection then when he faced off with Sam Peter (he weighed in at 229) but still was carrying to much weight for his small frame. In the end Toney was able to do just enough to get the decision on the judges scorecards.

However, after the bout with Batchelder was in the books, both fighters failed their post fight drug test, testing positive for banned steroids. This was Toney’s second run in with a banned steroid (he failed his post fight drug test against John Ruiz back in 2005) and the California State Athletic Commission suspended him for one year. The California State Athletic Commission later reduced that suspension to six months.

Before his last fight with Batchelder, Toney squared off with Nigerian powerhouse Sam Peter, only to wind up going 0-2 with back-to-back decision losses in just a four-month time span.

The reason that Toney and Peter ended up having two fights in four months is because many people feel Toney was robbed in his first fight with Peter. Although he once again carried way too much weight into the ring, the former middleweight champion of the world somehow found a way to negate the offensive assault of the power punching Peter for most of the fight and appeared to have earned himself a decision victory.

In the end the three blind mice at ringside once again disagreed with public perception (how many times does this happen in boxing?) and went the other way, giving Peter a highly contested unanimous decision win.

So the rematch was set for a few months later and the two fighters decided to settle things inside the ring. This time around it was a dominant performance from Peter, as he easily battered his overweight opponent, even dropping James in the third round of the fight with a jab!

Although obviously beaten in the rematch, Toney refused to accept the defeat and claimed he actually did enough to win the fight and was robbed by the judges. Although I disagree with Toney about the scoring in the rematch, I must say there are very few middleweight boxers that could go a few rounds with a slugger like Peter, let alone twenty-four rounds without ever being knocked out.

Actually, I think a natural heavyweight fighter like Hasim Rahman would have a very difficult time lasting the distance against Sam Peter. In fact, after his last performance against the light hitting Zuri Lawrence, I would venture to guess Rahman would be lucky to make it half way through a bout with a puncher like Peter.

While Toney has without a doubt been battling his ever-increasing spare tire, Rahman has had his own fair share of troubles inside the ring.

Right after his disputed draw with Toney, he was lined up to defend his WBC heavyweight championship of the world against Oleg Maskaev. Rahman and Maskaev had met back in 1999 and Maskaev scored a dramatic eighth round stoppage victory when he literally knocked Rahman out of the ring.

This time around most people anticipated a successful defense for the champion, but even though Maskaev was coming off almost a one-year layoff, when the bell sounded Hasim Rahman was unable to seal the deal.

Maskaev looked like a dead man walking that night. He had a series of back injuries leading up to the fight that caused his movements inside the ring to be limited at best. In between rounds I actually wondered if he was going to collapse in the corner. Round after round Rahman did just enough to keep Maskaev at bay, but even though he had a corpse in front of him, he never really looked for that finishing blow.

Rahman’s inability to finish off his handicapped opponent in the early going would come back to bite him when he eventually tired and was knocked out in the twelfth and final round of the fight.

If there is one glaring weakness of Hasim Rahman it has to be his chin. Out of his six losses four of them have been by stoppage. One might not bother taking his china chin into consideration against the natural middleweight Toney, but I think that would be a grave mistake.

While Toney is certainly not a heavyweight puncher like Oleg Maskaev or Lennox Lewis, Zuri “No KO’s” Lawrence recently proved it doesn’t take much to rattle the former heavyweight champion of the world.

Lawrence entered his bout against Rahman sporting a 23-13 record with a whopping zero stoppages. That is not a typo; in his twenty-three wins Zuri Lawrence has never stopped a single opponent.

With no power (literally) what would be the chances of Lawrence even being able to hurt the former heavyweight champ? Well, if you watched the fight you know the answer to that one.

Without a single stoppage to his name, Lawrence was able to rattle Rahman on more then a few occasions and even ended up cutting him over both eyes. A fighter with a zero KO percentage stood toe to toe with Rahman and held his own for most of the fight. Even in the early going when Rahman was fresh, his punches appeared to have nothing on them and he looked incredibly slow.

After a back and fourth fight most of the way (Rock scored a knockdown in the sixth) Rahman was finally able to grind Lawrence down in the tenth and final round of the fight for the TKO victory. Up until the point of the stoppage one judge had Lawrence winning the bout 86-84, while the other two judges had it for the Rock by scores of 86-84 and an unrealistic 88-82.

Although both fighters appeared to struggle a bit in their last fight, Rahman looked so atrocious against Lawrence I don’t see how anyone can bet on him as a favorite?

I think we can all agree that Toney is one of the premium skilled fighters in the game. He has an uncanny ability to move just a hair out of range of his opponent’s punches and even at the ripe old age of forty, is still able to fire off crisp, pinpoint accurate shots that demand respect from even the biggest heavyweight punchers.

Although Toney’s defensive timing has been a bit off lately, I honestly believe it has more to do with his expanding waist line then a serious decline in his fighting skills. Even when he does mis-time a shoulder roll here or there, he possesses a chin of granite that has allowed him to move up from middleweight to light heavyweight to cruiserweight and finally heavyweight, without ever being knocked out!

Hasim Rahman on the other hand has always been very unpredictable. He very well may be winning a fight only to get hit flush with one single shot and suddenly its “Lights Out.”

Another area where Rock fails is in the stamina department. In his fight against Lawrence there were several rounds where it looked as if he was going to hack up a lung. He gets extremely tired and when that fatigue sets in his arms drop and his fragile chin is exposed.

This is exactly what happened in his failed title defense against Maskaev. Rahman could not get his decrepit foe out of the match in the early rounds and ended up fading as the rounds wore on.

Now I already know what you’re thinking and I wholeheartedly agree with you that Toney is not a punching machine either. He will take extremely long periods of time in each round and just defend without firing anything back.

The difference between the two fighters fatigue is James does not get sloppy with his hands or his defense. Even when he drops his hands right in front of his opponents he is so sound defensively, most of the time he is never really in harms way.

Rahman has very little defense when he is fresh and ready to fight, what little defense he does have disappears as soon as he gets tired.

I think it’s safe to say that even an out of shape James Toney has a real shot at beating Hasim Rahman. If James “Light’s Out” Toney is able to get his big butt in real fighting shape for this fight (he came in at 226 pounds) don’t be surprised if he crumbles the Rock!

Boxeo: 10.00 Units On Toney {+145} & 1.00 Units On Toney By KO {+500}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Toney {+145}
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Toney By Decision {+227} & 1.00 Units On Toney By KO {+500}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Rahman By Decision {+197}
D3: 2.00 Units On Rahman By Decision {+197}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday afternoon we are treated to a heavyweight title bout between heavy-handed knockout artist Wladimir Klitschko, (50-3, 44KOs) and once beaten American heavyweight Tony Thompson, (31-1, 19KOs.) live from the Color Line Arena, Altona, Hamburg, Germany.

Klitschko opened as the clear favorite in the fight but public money has still been flowing in on him increasing his number to -700. Currently, you can score a respectable +500 on the underdog Thompson.

The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -175 and the over at +155. Klitschko by KO comes in at -180, while Klitschko by decision will reward you with +333. Thompson by KO hits the mark at +698, and Thompson by decision lands at +1600.

After an extremely lackluster performance against his much smaller foe Sultan Ibragimov, (The team did very well on the over in that fight) Klitschko now has another opportunity to convince his critics that he is the best heavyweight in the world.

Standing in Klitschko’s way is 6’5 southpaw Tony Thompson. Although Thompson is a mandatory fight for Klitschko and enters the contest having only lost one single bout, I think the “Steel Hammer” will have a much easier time with Thompson’s style then he did against Ibragimov.

There is no question Thompson is a big dude. At 6’5 inches he will stand almost even with Klitschko, but his lack of hand speed is going to present a serious problem for him in this fight.

Another major flaw I see in the game of Thompson is his inability to move. When he fights it appears as if his feet are stuck in cement. He also has a very bad habit of just covering up when his opponent throws punches. If he allows Klitschko to tee off on him without worrying about anything coming back, he may very well be in for a long night of punishment (or short night if Klitschko connects.)

You see, the reason Ibragimov was able to avoid big shots from Klitschko for twelve rounds was because he had great footwork and fast hands. Thompson has neither of those attributes and I am certain Klitschko will be able to take advantage of these glaring weaknesses.

The only thing that ever makes a Wladimir Klitschko fight exciting is the fact that he brings his own glaring weaknesses into every bout.

We all know about the constant stamina issue that has plagued Klitschko’s career. Regardless of how muscular and well-conditioned Klitschko appears to the naked eye, it seems whenever he gets into the middle rounds of a fight, he hits an invisible wall and his legs turn to jelly.

I am uncertain if Klitschko is sporting a child-sized pair of lungs, or if he is just so tense and tight that he expends a ton of energy during the early portion of the bout. Regardless of the reason, he has serious stamina issues that must always be taken into consideration when betting on a Wladimir Klitschko fight.

A lot of people point to the chin of Klitschko as his Achilles Heel, but I think it is a lack of stamina that leads to him flopping around the ring like a fish out of water. When you are dead tired any punch from a heavyweight fighter can easily send you flailing around the ring.

The biggest factor in this fight is the inability of Thompson to move out of range of the extremely hard punches of Wladimir Klitschko. While Klitschko can knockout any heavyweight with a single shot, he sets those shots up by using his huge height and reach advantage, keeping his foes on the end of his punches.

In some of his previous bouts Thompson has shown a weakness to defending right hand power shots. If he does not protect his chin from right hands against Klitschko, you can kiss his chances of an upset goodbye.

Boxeo: 1.80 Units On Klitschko By KO {-180}
Krakrabbit: 1.80 Units On Klitschko By KO {-180}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.00 Units On Over 9 Rounds {+200} (Vegas Odds)
D3: 1.00 Units On Over 9 Rounds {+200} (Vegas Odds)

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night Showtime main event features a rematch in the light welterweight division between knockout artist Ricardo Torres, (32-1-1, 28KO’s) and twice beaten Kendall Holt, (23-2, 12KO’s) live from the Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino, Las Vegas, NV.

Although Torres stopped Holt in their first fight, Kendall Holt now comes into the rematch as the odds on favorite to win the fight, currently resting at –275. Torres supporters can grab the underdog money at +275. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +160 and the over at -175.

Torres by KO comes in at +400, while Torres by decision will reward you with +1001. Holt by KO hits the mark at +161, and Holt by decision lands at +168.

Since Torres stopped Holt in their first contest you might be wondering why the line opened in favor of Holt? The reason the oddsmakers have made Holt the favorite in the rematch with Torres is because the original bout had nothing but controversy surrounding it and Holt was actually leading on the judge’s scorecards when the bout was halted in the eleventh round.

For his part, Holt blames the poor ring conditions and referee Gino Rodriguez for his stoppage defeat at the hands of Torres five months ago in Barranquilla, Columbia.

He claims the fight fans in attendance were allowed to throw beer and trash into the ring causing unsafe conditions that did not allow him box as effectively as he would have liked. He also claims the referee’s decision to stop the bout in the eleventh round was a poor decision and he was more then willing and able to continue.

I can tell you after watching the film that I believe the referee’s decision to call a halt to the bout at that point at time was not the correct one. Although Torres had already put Holt down earlier in the round with a wicked left hook, when he pinned Holt on the ropes in an attempt to finish him off, he was never really able to connect flush with any of his power shots.

Holt’s biggest mistake when Torres was unleashing his flurry was bending over in an attempt to hold on. I think the referee felt Holt was slumping over from the power shots of Torres and jumped in and stopped the fight.

Even with the loss to Torres, Holt has only tasted defeat a total of two times in his career. However, both times he was stopped! Even if you wish to disregard the controversial stoppage in the eleventh round of his first bout with Torres, there is no question in my mind he was seriously hurt from the first left hook that put him down earlier in the round.

In my view there are legitimate concerns regarding his ability to absorb solid shots and stay upright. If Torres is able to find his jaw once again, I am certain Holt will be in a world of trouble.

For all of his imperfections in the chin department, Holt does indeed posses skills. He has fast hands and quick footwork, a combination that will always give Torres fits inside the ring.

I would be shocked if in the rematch Holt decided to do anything other than to use the ring and box Torres from the outside. In their first bout he had great success boxing from the outside and is much quicker in both hand and foot speed then Torres. Should Holt decide to box, it will be up to Torres to press the action and make Holt fight!

In the first bout Torres could have done a much better job of pressing the action. For extremely long stretches of the bout he stayed on the outside with Holt and tried to match him jab for jab. In fact, even when he did press forward his inability to close the gap quickly between himself and Holt is what lead to his being dropped in the sixth round of the fight.

Ricardo Torres is not skilled enough to outbox Kendall Holt from the outside. He needs to be all of the way inside or all of the way outside. He simply cannot stand in no mans land and expect to win the fight.

If he plays around in the rematch and does not apply effective pressure from the get go he will once again find himself down on the judges scorecards or looking up at the bright lights of the Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino.

That’s right, even though Holt only has twelve stoppages in twenty-three wins; I believe he has enough pop in his right hand to knockout Torres!

In my opinion, on more then a few occasions during the first half of their original fight Holt clearly buzzed Torres with his long right hand shots. In the sixth round a left hook-right hand combination caught Torres flush on the chin and sent him to the canvas.

Torres was in serious trouble when he got up from that knockdown and was extremely lucky the round was just about over or he could have easily lost the fight by sixth round stoppage.

Holt is clearly the better technician in the bout. He can outbox Torres to a decision win or catch him with another right hand counter shot and end the night. If not for his questionable chin, this would be a trouble-free straight wager on Kendall Holt. However, he does have a weak beard and you must factor that in when making a decision on this fight.

Because both guys have shown susceptibility to the big punch (Torres’ sole defeat was a stoppage loss at the hands of Miguel Cotto) I am going to take the “fight won’t go the distance” prop and hope somebody’s chin fails one more time.

Boxeo: 4.20 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full Rounds {-105}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Torres By KO {+400}
Grass Hopper: 2.50 Units On Torres {+275}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Torres {+275}
D3: 1.05 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full Rounds {-105}

HBO PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night’s HBO PPV main event features Manny “Pac Man” Pacquiao, (46-3-2, 35KO’s) making the leap from the Super featherweight division up to the lightweight division to challenge current WBC lightweight champion of the world David Diaz, (34-1-1, 17KO’s) live from the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino, Las Vegas, NV.

As expected, Pacquiao opened as the clear favorite in the bout and currently rests as a – 455 favorite to defeat Diaz. Diaz supporters can grab the underdog money at +375. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +120 and the over at -140.

Pacquiao by KO comes in at -128, while Pacquiao by decision will reward you with +254. Diaz by KO hits the mark at +928, and Diaz by decision lands at +608.

As you can clearly see by the current lines, Diaz is not expected to retain his title on Saturday night.

While Diaz is certainly not a bad fighter, he does not bring explosive punching power or lightning fast hand speed into his contest with Pacquiao.

Diaz is pretty much a straight-ahead fighter that seeks to get close to his opponents and outwork them over twelve rounds. There is little question he is going to have his work cut out for him when tries to implement this type of fighting style against Pacquiao.

Diaz is not a big puncher by any stretch of the imagination. With just seventeen stoppages in thirty four wins, I would be shocked if he had enough punching power to keep Manny at bay for any length of time.

The biggest danger for Diaz in this fight is not when he is inside the range of Manny Pacquiao. I personally believe fighting a rough and tough inside fight plan will be the safest spot for Diaz to be at against Pacquiao.

The problem for Diaz is he is going to be forced to walk through Pacquiao’s outside artillery before he has an opportunity to smother “Pac Man” and go to work on the inside.

It is no secret that Manny’s best punch is his left hand. Most of his offense is derived from a simple one-two combination punch. On paper it would seem like a very easy task too nullify Pacquiao’s limited offensive arsenal, but the guy hits so hard that it only takes a single grazing shot to send his opponents down and out for the count.

With that said, Pacquiao with a doubt has progressed as a fighter since long time trainer Freddie Roach first started working with him. Under the tutelage of Roach, the hard-hitting “Pac Man” has added a very respectable body attack to his repertoire (just ask Erik Morales) as well as a slowly improving lead right hook from the southpaw stance.

But in the end, the left hand will always be Manny Pacquiao’s most dangerous weapon.

That powerful left hand of Pacquiao’s is something Diaz must avoid as he progresses forward after Pacquiao. He simply cannot walk forward and absorb right jabs and left hands all night long or he will find himself looking up at the lights.

There in lies the biggest problem for Diaz in this fight. He basically has no head movement and sports a very limited ability to defend any type of offensive onslaught. In plain English…the kid gets hit too much!

Although Diaz was recently dropped in the opening round against a seriously faded Erik Morales, there is a possibility that Diaz’s chin may hold up reasonably well to Pacquiao’s power shots.

Remember, this will be another move up in weight for Manny who started his career all the way back at 107 pounds. One would assume at some point his tremendous punching power might not follow him as he increases in weight and faces bigger and stronger fighters.

Even if Diaz’s chin can somehow stand up to a flush left hand from Pacquiao, his face is all together an entirely different story.

Diaz is often battered and bruised at the end of his fights, and those are fights where he has actually won the contest. Although there is no doubting Diaz’s toughness, there is no qualm in my mind that the longer the fight goes the worse for wear his face is going to become.

Without question the task at hand is going to be extremely difficult for Diaz. Pacquiao has faced the best of the best and delivers his punches with incredible speed and power.

However, all is not lost for those Diaz supporters out there. As is the case lately with every single Manny Pacquiao fight, there have been more and more rumors about how his nightlife and celebrity status have started to take their toll on his training habits.

It has been suggested that Pacquiao is relying more on his pure talent and spending less and less time in the gym doing quality work. It’s funny because if you look at Pacquiao he always appears to be in great shape.

With his shredded abs and Bruce Lee like build, you might get committed to the nutty farm if you suggested to the average fight fan “Pac Man” might be out of shape. But as we all know, looking in shape and being in fighting shape are two very different things.

Even if Pacquiao comes into this bout less then 100%, Diaz is still going to be forced to walk through fire to get into an area where he can do serious work. Diaz is tough, he won’t quit trying to win this fight until he is looking up at the bright lights at the Mandalay Bay or forced to retire by either his corner or the referee.

Regardless of how the end comes, I think at some point and time the brave, but outgunned Diaz loses his title via stoppage.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Pacquiao By KO {+100} (Vegas Odds)
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Pacquiao By KO {+100} (Vegas Odds)
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Pacquiao By KO {+100} (Vegas Odds) & 2.00 Units On Won't Go 10 Full Rounds {+120} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Pacquiao By KO {+100} (Vegas Odds)
D3: 1.00 Units On Diaz {+375}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

This Saturday nights Showtime main event features a special 166-pound catch weight rematch between knockout artist Edison Miranda, (30-2, 26KO’s) and current IBF middleweight champion Arthur Abraham, (26-0, 21KO’s) Live from the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, Hollywood, Florida.

Surprisingly, Edison Miranda opened as the slight underdog in the bout and currently sits as a +175 dog. Abraham supporters will be forced to lay some chalk at -210. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +120 and the over at -140.

Abraham by KO comes in at +145, while Abraham by decision will reward you with +267. Miranda by KO hits the mark at +330, and Miranda by decision lands at +516.

This will be Miranda’s third fight since his destruction loss at the hands of Kelly Pavlik back in May of 2007. Since the loss to Pavlik, Miranda claimed he could no longer make the 160-pound weight limit, and the strain to make the weight severely depleted his ability to fend off the hard punching Pavlik.

Regardless if Miranda was being genuine about the weight issues or not, he has scored two stoppage wins over less than stellar competition in his first two bouts at 168. Now Miranda seeks to revenge a highly disputed unanimous decision loss that occurred in Abraham’s home country of Germany back in 2006.

In his original bout against Abraham, Miranda was without question treated very unfairly by referee Randy Neumann. A referee is required to be a neutral figure inside the ring but on that night back in September of 2006, Randy Neumann was anything but neutral.

Somewhere during the first four rounds of a very entertaining contest, Miranda was able to nail Abraham on the chin with some serious dynamite that ended up breaking the champions jaw.

I personally believe the injury occurred towards the end of the fourth round when Abraham was on the attack after a dazed and retreating Miranda and was caught with a counter right uppercut that hit him right on the button.

In any case, by the fifth round Abraham’s jaw began to increasingly swell. It was very apparent from the blood spewing out of his mouth that the champion was going to have serious problems with his breathing and ability to keep his mouth closed.

During the first half of the fifth round Miranda was all over Abraham. He was forcing the champion back and landing cleanly to the head and body of Abraham. For his part, Abraham was apparently in survival mode, backpedaling and trying not to engage Miranda in a toe-to-tow slugfest as he had done early in the contest.

With about a minute to go in round number five, Miranda and Abraham clashed heads. Abraham immediately held his head and backed away from Miranda while referee Randy Neumann advised Miranda to “watch his head.”

He then asked Abraham if he was “ok” but instead of walking forward towards Miranda in an attempt to resume the bout, Abraham stayed away and walked towards the corner holding his head with his glove.

Referee Randy Neumann then called “time” and advised Abraham to “take a minute.” For some unknown reason the doctor entered the scene and after being told by Abraham about his jaw (an injury unrelated to the stoppage) began swabbing the mouth of Abraham. Meanwhile, Neumann is heard advising “someone” at ringside (IBF representative I think) that the butt was intentional.

After a few minutes of the doctor administering care to the jaw of Abraham, the IBF representative is heard telling Neumann that the corner of Abraham was trying to get the doctor to stop the fight!

Neumann then asks someone at ringside what round the fight is currently in. After a few more seconds of the doctor looking at the jaw of Abraham he tells Neumann that the fight is over!

In reality the fight should have been over right there. The stoppage should have been from the broken jaw that was caused by a legal punch from Miranda.

However, Neumann does not award the victory to Miranda and leans over the ring ropes and tells someone (I assume it was the IBF representative) that the fight is over and what does he want to do?

Since Neumann was trying to base the stoppage of the fight off of the intentional foul from Miranda he asks the invisible man at ringside (the camera view never really shows who he is speaking with) if they should go to the scorecards.

He continues by telling the invisible man at ringside that it is the fifth round and they (judges) have to score that round. After shaking his head yes a few times Neumann walks over to the corner where Miranda is standing and takes away two points for the foul!

Up until this point there were no indications from Neumann that any points, let alone two points, would be taken from Miranda. Neumann simply walked towards Miranda and deducted two points for the intentional headbutt.

What a coincidence that Neumann is under the impression the bout will head to the cards and then magically takes two points from Miranda!

Miranda argues with Neumann that the fight is being stopped because of the jaw of Abraham and Neumann tells Miranda he butted him in the head. Neumann then goes back over to ringside and tells the invisible man at ringside that the foul was to the head and did not cause the cut on the lip. You can hear Neumann telling the invisible man at ringside it was an intentional foul and to “go to the scorecards.”

After a brief conversation between Neumann and the invisible man at ringside (the audio did not come across on the broadcast) you can hear Neumann tell him “TKO, can’t continue due to the punch to the lip.”

He then tells the invisible man at ringside “He (Miranda) loses two points but wins by TKO.”

Another conversation ensues (audio once again does not pick it all up) and then another doctor comes ringside and tends to the lip of Abraham. Then Neumann is heard asking someone at ringside if they wanted to go on. Apparently they indicated they did wish to continue with the bout because Neumann tells Abraham they are going to continue fighting ands asks Abraham if he wished to fight and Abraham says no!

Instead of calling the fight right then and there, Neumann allows Abraham to have a discussion with his corner (I assume it was his corner you cannot see on the video) while he sits by and waits for Abraham to make up his mind.

Finally after about five minutes since this charade started, Abraham indicates he will go on and referee Randy Neumann restarts the action.

One might think that was the end of this high drama affair but they would be very wrong. Just two rounds later the great Randy Neumann deducts two points from Miranda for low blows.

Now remember, up until this round there were maybe, two warnings from Neumann to Miranda for low blows. Not to mention that every single “low blow” that Miranda was penalized for was in the worse case a borderline shot.

Then just four rounds later Neumann struck again with another point deduction for a “low blow” shot.

If you are not keeping track, that is 2 points deducted from Miranda in round number five for the headbutt, 2 points deducted from Miranda in round seven for low blows and finally 1 point deducted from Miranda in round eleven for another low blow shot.

2+2+1 = 5 points deducted from Miranda!

The reason I have taken the time to write in detail about the horrendous officiating by referee Randy Neumann is because when this fight was originally aired nobody in the U.S. got to see it.

Sure, many people read about the shady tactics that were used against Miranda but seeing them for yourself sheds a whole new light on how their first fight played out. In fact, if you have not had the opportunity to watch the first fight I highly suggest before you make a bet on this fight you check your local listings (Showtime is replaying it) and schedule a time to sit down and watch it.

When the referee did not impede the action, Miranda did very nice bodywork in the original fight that I feel clearly bothered Abraham. The solid body shots from Miranda are probably the major reason Abraham went into his acting mode and gave a look for help to the referee whenever Miranda punched to his body.

In fact, Abraham was fading badly down the stretch and used the low blow point deduction in round eleven from Randy Neumann to take a nice 2:00 minute break to catch his breath.

Heading into their first fight a lot of people suggested that Abraham was the much better technical fighter of the two, but if their first fight is any indication of his boxing ability, I would not suggest he is that much better technically then Miranda.

There were many instances where he and Miranda simply threw wide looping punches trying to take their opponent’s head off. While I feel Abraham has the better defense, offensively he can and does throw very wide shots.

I am certain Abraham can hurt Miranda and I know for a fact Miranda had Abraham hurt and on the verge of quitting (actually he did quit but Randy Neumann did not accept his surrender.)

I have to admit I was impressed with Abraham’s ability to absorb those thunderous headshots from Miranda without going down. I feel Miranda would have a much better shot at stopping Abraham by setting up his shots to the body first, before going to the head.

Should this bout somehow head to the scorecards for the second straight time a lot of people expect a decision to go in favor of Abraham. Unless there is some more shady business going on that I don’t know about, I don’t see how they can be so confident of an Abraham decision win?

In the first fight Abraham hardly threw any punches at all. Sure, when he did throw he was able to land cleanly on Miranda, but his punch output was very poor. Even with the point deductions most people had Miranda in the fight (excluding the three blind mice at ringside) and had those points not been taken, I am sure most unbiased people would have scored the fight for Miranda.

The rematch is Miranda’s fight to lose. They are fighting in the states and at a catch weight that should favor Miranda. Unless he has horrible luck he should also get a much better shake this time around from the referee then he did in Germany. Now all he needs to do is go out there and win!

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Miranda {+175} & .50 Units On Miranda By Decision {+516}
Krakrabbit: .75 Units On Miranda {+175}
Grass Hopper: 4.50 Units On Miranda {+175}
Doody: 2.00 Units On Miranda {+175}
D3: 2.00 Units On Miranda {+175}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night we will be treated to a world championship bout in the 154-pound weight class between Vernon Forrest, (40-2, 29KOs) and Sergio Mora, (20-0-1, 5KOs) live from the Mohegan Sun Casino, Uncasville, Connecticut.

The champion Forrest has been installed as the clear betting favorite in the bout, but public money has been slowly creeping in on Mora, dropping the champion’s number to -460. Mora supporters will now net +380 for the upset victory.

The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +160 and the over at -185. Forrest by KO comes in at +175, while the champion by decision will net you +116. Mora by KO hits the mark at +870, and Mora by decision lands at +678.

Although there has been some late money coming in on Mora, I feel there are a few good reasons why the “Latin Snake” will have a very tough task beating Vernon Forrest. Although this bout will take place at 154 pounds, Mora has not been at or below that weight since he fought Ishe Smith way back in 2004.

Even though Mora insists that he always had an easy time making 160, coming down in weight may have an adverse affect on his biggest weapon…his legs!

As we all know, Sergio Mora’s biggest asset is being a slick boxer with a style that could certainly cure insomnia. His hit and don’t get hit style, combined with zero punching power, usually make for a very boring night of action whenever he enters the ring.

Speaking of punching power, with only five stoppages in his twenty wins, I think it is fairly safe to say there is zero chance Mora heads into this contest seeking a stoppage win over Forrest.

However, he is also facing an uphill battle if he expects to step into the ring Saturday night and outbox Forrest over the twelve round distance.

At one point and time Forrest was considered one of the elite fighters in the sport, but back to back losses to wild man Ricardo Mayorga, and a plethora of shoulder injuries tainted his status as one of the best fighters in the sport.

Forrest recently had surgery to correct those nagging injuries and looked the best he has in years defeating Carlos Baldomir and most recently Michelle Piccirillo.

Obviously this fight is more about how Forrest will win, not if he will win. For Forrest to stop Mora would be a real feather in his cap. Although I feel Mora is in way over his head against Forrest, throughout his short career, Mora has shown a solid chin and for the time being remains undefeated.

Forrest is a great boxer/counter puncher but I can foresee him having a difficult time chasing Mora around the ring all night in search of the stoppage. There is little doubt in my mind that Forrest will win the fight Saturday, but he will need to land his potent right hand often to keep Mora on the canvas.

With that said, even if Forrest is unable to seriously hurt Mora with his power shots, there is always the chance that Mora’s face begins to fall apart. Mora has been cut inside the ring before and Forrest is a very accurate puncher. If Vernon is able to land consistently on Mora, the above combinations could easily score a TKO win for Forrest.

Boxeo Bets: 2.00 Units On Forrest By KO {+175}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Forrest By Decision {+116}
Grass Hopper: 46.00 Units On Forrest {-460} & 5.00 Units On Won’t Go 11 Full {+170} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Forrest By KO {+175}
D3: .50 Units On Forrest By KO {+175}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight on the Showtime card featuring Vernon Forrest vs. Sergio Mora, fight fans will be treated to a rematch between former champion Paul Williams, (33-1, 24KO’s) and the man who took his crown, Carlos Quintana, (25-1, 19KO’s) live from the Mohegan Sun Casino, Uncasville, Connecticut.

Although Williams was the loser in the original fight, oddsmakers somehow found enough reasons to open the former champion as the favorite in the rematch. The public quickly jumped on the Quintana side and Williams currently rests as a slim –155 favorite to regain his title on Saturday night. Quintana supporters can still get the underdog odds at +135 (a far cry from his +650 the first time around.)

The over/under for the Williams vs. Quintana bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the over costing you –200, while the under comes in at +170. Williams by KO comes in at +280, while Williams by decision will net you +184. Quintana by KO hits the mark at +440, and Quintana by decision lands at +305.

Below you can read my original thoughts on how I expected the first fight to play out.

As the public money suggests, this is Paul Williams’ fight to lose. Quintana is a decent fighter, but I think his style is completely inadequate to beat a fighter like Paul Williams.

With that said, Quintana does have skills but he will not be able to utilize any of those skills against Williams.

Quintana can box and has solid footwork, but he is not a huge one-punch knockout guy. I would venture to guess that Quintana’s natural reaction is to box and counterpunch when he gets in the ring. However, he will have a very tough time trying to outbox the freakishly tall Williams from the outside. If Quintana wants to win, and cannot outbox Williams, his last option would be to try and put Williams on the seat of his pants.

The major problem I see with this strategy is the fact that Quintana is not a naturally aggressive guy with massive power. Sure, he has pop in his gloves, but if Antonio Margarito could not stop Paul Williams in their recent showdown, why would Quintana be expected to?

So, Quintana can try to stay on the outside and allow Williams to walk him down, throwing a million and one punches as he advances, or he can go straight ahead into the lions den and try to lure Williams into a slugfest.

If I were forced to pick between the two strategies I would vote for Quintana to get as close as possible to Williams and try to get inside his long reach. Margarito had his best success when he got right on the chest of Williams. However, if you don’t gauge the distance correctly against him you will end up eating leather all night long.

Williams is not a big puncher. He gets his stoppage wins from an accumulation of shots. It is not unheard for Williams to throw 100 punches per round, EVERY single round.

My initial feelings on this fight had Williams stopping Quintana somewhere in the middle rounds, but recently Williams has stated he is not looking for a stoppage, and I can envision Quintana stinking up the joint, just doing enough to survive and go the distance.

A lot (really everything) depends on how serious Williams is about getting Quintana out of there. If Williams is seeking to get some rounds in, this is a distance affair. Quintana’s style will allow Williams to get the necessary rounds in, without every really being in danger of losing the fight.

The inability to determine if Williams will allow Quintana to run around the ring and survive puts bettors in a severe quandary. With that said, I am going to take the plus money and play Williams by decision.

This is not by any means a particularly confident play, but there is a real possibility that Williams allows a dull, boring fight for the greater good of getting the rounds in that he requires.

Obviously, I was extremely off base with my original prediction. Williams appeared lackluster in their first meeting and never really got into his rhythm until awfully late in the fight when Quintana began to slow down.

I am not quite sure why Williams was so off that night, but I don’t feel he can fight much worse then he did in their original meeting. I also sense that was one of the best performances (if not the best) Carlos Quintana had to offer.

I think this time around Williams will be able to land just a little bit more cleanly on Quintana and start the slowing down process much earlier in the contest. I don’t expect a brutal knockout win for Williams but I do believe he has an opportunity to wear Quintana down and regain his championship title.

Boxeo Bets: 1.00 Units On Williams By KO {+280}
Krakrabbit: .20 Units On Williams By Decision {+184}
Grass Hopper: 5.00 Units On Quintana {+160} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Williams By KO {+280}
D3: 1.00 Units On Quintana By Decision {+305}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night fight fans will be treated to the return of WBC/WBO middleweight champion of the world Kelly Pavlik, (33-0, 29KOs) squaring off against unknown Gary Lockett, (30-1, 21KOs.) live from the Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey.

The champion Pavlik opened as a huge favorite in the fight and currently rests at -1800. Lockett supporters can grab the underdog line at +1200.

The O/U on the bout is set at 6.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -140 and the over at +120. Pavlik by KO comes in at -485, while the champion by decision will reward you with +626. Lockett by KO hits the mark at +1473, and Lockett by decision lands at +3350.

As you can see by the outrageous odds, this bout is clearly considered a mismatch and is not expected to produce any other result than a stoppage win for Kelly Pavlik.

After watching film of Lockett, I must say this time around I am inclined to agree with the oddsmakers. This is a serious mismatch in favor of Pavlik and I cannot understand what Gary Lockett has done in his career to deserve an opportunity to face Pavlik for the titles.

However, I can tell you this… Pavlik is going to bomb out his overmatched challenger as soon as he begins to land cleanly! Lockett’s resume is nothing more than a list of nobodies who do not remotely come close to the level of a Kelly Pavlik.

I honestly can say I would be shocked if Lockett is able to absorb the powerful shots from Pavlik for more then a few rounds. Unless he is sporting an iron chin, I wholeheartedly expect Pavlik to stop Lockett before the listed 6.5 round prop hits.

Boxeo: 1.40 Units On Under 6.5 Rounds {-140}
Krakrabbit: 2.80 Units On Under 6.5 Rounds {-140}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.40 Units On Under 6.5 Rounds {-140}
D3: .50 Units Pavlik By Decision {+626}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night we are treated to a world championship bout in the 122-pound weight class between two heavy-handed brawlers, Daniel Ponce De Leon, (34-1, 30KOs) and Juan Manuel Lopez (21-0, 19KOs) live from the Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey.

The champion De Leon has been installed as the slight betting favorite, costing you –160 for every hundred bucks you wish to win. Lopez will net you +140 for your hard earned hundred.

The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the under coming in at –110 and the over coming in at the exact same number -110. De Leon by KO comes in at +144, while the champion by decision will net you +380. Lopez by KO hits the mark at +420, and Lopez by decision lands at +329.

Although Daniel Ponce De Leon has a bit of a crude style, he is one of the best pure punchers in the sport. When he lands his wild, unconventional punches, his opponents go down. I doubt there are very few fighters in the sport that can take a flush shot from De Leon and still be left standing.

The pure novacane that De Leon possesses does not bode well for most of his opponents. Now, Lopez does possess the better hand speed and is technically a better fighter, but that all goes out the window when your chin gets checked and you're laying flat on your back.

Lopez could easily be winning the fight and get caught with one single shot…lights out! JML does have pretty solid pop to his shots, but the level of competition that he has faced is nowhere near the level that De Leon has been in with.

With that said, Lopez truly believes in his power and appears to welcome an all-out slugfest with De Leon to determine who truly hits harder. On the surface that type of bravado may seem insane, but Lopez may simply feel that De Leon has too many holes in his defensive game to absorb his own power shots.

While Lopez is certainly being touted as the next big thing at 122 pounds, De Leon has already proven himself when the bright lights hit center stage. I think Lopez may have been rushed too fast into this fight because of the lack of pure boxing skill that De Leon displays.

Yes, De Leon is clearly beatable (he already has one loss) but you must possess certain attributes to beat De Leon. Although Lopez has been able to display those types of attributes (speed, power, and boxing ability) versus lesser opponents, showcasing them against De Leon will certainly be a much tougher task.

I think if he boxed a perfect fight for twelve rounds, never getting hit on the chin, he would beat De Leon and possibly stop him from an accumulation of solid shots. However, that is a very tall order when you have an aggressive punching machine like De Leon in your face all night.

Boxeo Bets: 2.00 Units On De Leon By KO {+144}
Krakrabbit: .10 Units On Lopez {+140}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.60 Units On De Leon {-160}
D3: 1.60 Units On De Leon {-160}

Versus Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday afternoon (in the U.S.) showcases the return of Ricky “Hitman” Hatton, (43-1, 31KO’s) squaring off against the dangerous veteran Juan Lazcano, (37-4-1, 27KO’s) live from the City of Manchester Stadium, Manchester, Lancashire, UK.

Hatton was quickly installed as the clear betting favorite in the fight, but money has continued to roll in on the “Manchester Mexican” skyrocketing his number to –1250. Lazcano supporters can grab the underdog money at +850. The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -105 and the over at -115.

Hatton by KO comes in at -118, while Hatton by decision will net you +180. Lazcano by KO hits the mark at +2037, and Lazcano by decision lands at +1675.

Although Hatton is far and away the betting favorite in the fight, one must not forget that on Saturday he will enter the ring for the first time as a professional without an unblemished record.

Not only did Hatton lose in his bid to take the pound 4 pound status away from current champion Floyd Mayweather Jr., he was knocked out in wicked fashion in the tenth round of their affair.

Whenever a fighter loses for the first time in their career it is always a risky proposition when you back them. As well know, boxing is not only a very physically demanding sport but it can wreck havoc on a fighters mental state.

The loss to Mayweather was not only a physically painful experience for Hatton; long after his physical wounds had healed his mental scarring was still very evident. He has publicly admitted to breaking down after his defeat to Mayweather and even confessed to crying the first time he sat down and watched the tape of the fight.

How a loss (a knockout loss at that) will affect a boxers mental state is completely impossible to predict. A perfect example of a boxer never being able to rebound after their first professional loss would be Mike Tyson. Sure, he went on to make millions of dollars after his first defeat, but everyone pretty much agrees the brilliance that was Mike Tyson ended in that ring back in 1990 when Buster Douglas knocked him out.

On the other end of the spectrum is a fighter like Glenn Johnson. Currently resting with twelve losses, the forty-year-old man is somehow able to continue to fight on a world-class level and is just recently coming off a disputed decision loss to Chad Dawson for the WBC lightweight championship of the world.

We will have to wait until after Saturday to find out if Hatton will be able rebound from his lone defeat at the hands of “Pretty Boy” Floyd Mayweather Jr.

I feel Lazcano may be a very good gauge at just how badly the loss to Mayweather has affected Hatton’s mental state. While the style of Lazcano is certainly more favorable to Hatton then Mayweather was, Lazcano is a hardnosed fighter that will be right in his face all night long. If Ricky is unable to blast Lazcano out of the ring early, he could find himself in a dogfight that he is mentally unprepared for.

While I have no doubt the location of the fight is going to allow Hatton to use every roughhouse tactic in his arsenal, Lazcano is far from a cutie inside the ring and will welcome a rough and tough inside battle.

With that said, I certainly would not be surprised to see a lot of head clashes and possibly even a cut or two if both fighters are allowed to practice their dirty boxing with little consequences from the referee.

Another important weapon (probably the most important) for Lazcano in this fight will be his body punching. I don’t believe Hatton is very solid in the body and from what I understand, team Lazcano feels the same way. Their game plan appears to be to work Hatton over, taking him into the late rounds to see if his out of the ring lifestyle comes back to haunt him.

Although this fight was clearly made to showcase the return of Ricky Hatton, I feel the odds are currently resting way too high. If Lazcano has anything left in the tank, he gives Hatton fits on Saturday.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Lazcano {+850} & .50 Lazcano By KO {+2037}
Krakrabbit: .50 Lazcano By KO {+2037}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Lazcano {+850}
Doody: 1.18 Units On Hatton By KO {-118}
D3: 1.00 Units On Hatton By Decision {+180}

Versus Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday afternoon (in the U.S.) on the undercard of Hatton vs. Lazcano, Paul Malignaggi, (24-1, 5KO’s) squares off against the tough veteran Lovemore N’dou, (46-9-1, 31KO’s) live from the City of Manchester Stadium, Manchester, Lancashire, UK.

Malignaggi was quickly installed as the clear betting favorite in the fight, and currently rests as a –925 favorite. N’dou supporters can grab the underdog money at +625. The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the over coming in at a whopping -600 and the under landing at +450.

Malignaggi by KO comes in at +514, while Malignaggi by decision will cost you -360. N’dou by KO hits the mark at +1381, and N’dou by decision lands at +1103.

It’s painfully clear from the outrageous over and Malignaggi by decision line the odds makers are expecting a decision win for Paul “Magic Man” Malignaggi.

I would venture to guess the major reason the line is so wide on the over and decision prop is simply because Malignaggi already pecked his way to a clear decision win over N’dou just about one year ago. Scoring of 120-106 (twice) and 118-108 certainly do not indicate a competitive fight inside the ring ropes.

Saturday, N’dou will have his opportunity at redemption; the question is will he take advantage of his second chance?

In their first fight, N’dou made the same dreaded mistakes most of Malignaggi opponents make, he simply followed him around the ring while the “Magic Man” pop out the jab and the occasional power punch. Before he knew it the bell to sound the final round had rang and he was on the losing end of a lopsided unanimous decision win.

I did not feel the fight was that lopsided, but N’dou definitely better head into the rematch with a better game plan then just following Paulie around the ring all night. If he leaves it up to Malignaggi, we will see twelve identical rounds as the first fight.

Both boxers have only had one single fight since their first fight back in June of 2007. N’dou stopped Rafael Ortiz in seven rounds, while Malignaggi won a controversial twelve round decision over Herman Ngoudjo.

In his bout with Ngoudjo, Malignaggi was never ever to really take control of the fight. He was extremely easy to hit and was even wobbled on a few occasions in the fight. Malignaggi insists he simply overlooked Ngoudjo and came into the bout feeling flat. With a potential Hatton date on the horizon one would assume Malignaggi would be on top of his game come Saturday.

After his dismal performance against Ngoudjo, I feel if there ever was a time for N’dou to strike it rich it would be now. If he is somehow able to hit Malignaggi as much as Ngoudjo did, things could get really interesting really fast.

The problem is he actually needs to hit Malignaggi cleanly this time around. Make no mistake about it; Malignaggi’s style is always going to present serious problems for a fighter like N’dou.

Although Malignaggi has shown a solid chin (he took an absolute beating against Cotto and went 12) I figure N’dou’s best chance is to land something big and end the night. At almost 14-1, I think a very small play on N’dou by stoppage is something to consider if you like the dog.

If you are backing Malignaggi there is no way to get around the heavy chalk. I see zero chance he stops N’dou, so that would mean looking at the over or Malignaggi by decision.

Boxeo: .20 Units On N’dou By KO {+1381}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: .50 Units On N’dou {+700} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: N/P
D3: 3.60 Units On Malignaggi By Decision {-360}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight we have the “Golden Boy” Oscar De La Hoya, (38-5, 30KO’s) returning to cable television for the first time in nearly seven years to do battle with former lightweight world champion Steve “2-pound” Forbes, (32-5, 9KO’s) at a catch weight bout at 150 pounds. The De La Hoya/Forbes bout will take place live from the Home Depot Center in Carson California and will be televised by HBO at 10:00pm ET/7:00PM PT.

The Golden Boy quickly opened as an extremely large favorite, and even though some Forbes money has come in, De La Hoya still rests at -1900. Forbes supporters can grab the underdog money at +1300. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at a whopping +260 and the over at -320.

De La Hoya by KO comes in at +175, while De La Hoya by decision will cost you -153. Forbes by KO hits the mark at +2600, and Forbes by decision lands at +1900. As you can see from the posted odds, this bout is expected to go deep into the fight.

The reason this fight is expected to go into deep waters is because De La Hoya is in a real fight against Forbes. The former lightweight champion of the world may not be as well known as the future hall of famer De La Hoya, but the kid can fight!

Forbes has never tasted the canvas as an amateur or a pro, and Oscar is making the move down a few pounds from his last bout at 154. In fact, De La Hoya’s official weight of 150 pounds is his lowest since he squared off with Arturo Gatti over seven years ago.

Some experts predict the trimmed down version of Oscar will be able to put his punches together better and land at a higher rate then when he was fighting at 154 and above, but this will be the Golden Boys’ first bout below 154 in years, I believe there is a real possibility he enters this fight weight drained.

Should Oscar enter this fight against Forbes in anything less then stellar conditioning, not only is the fight going to head to the scorecards, I honestly believe Forbes will be very competitive with De La Hoya.

We already touched on the chin of Forbes, but I cannot recall anyone who has been able to point to a time and place when he has even been hurt. Granted, the names on his resume do not read like De La Hoya’s, but Forbes has real talent.

“2 Pound” can be extremely hard to hit, and has very fast hands. The problem for Forbes in the De La Hoya bout (all of his fights really) is his lack of punching power. Even though I guarantee you he will be able to hit the Golden Boy cleanly, I just cannot envision any punch he lands doing any real damage to De La Hoya.

The only way Forbes wins this fight is by decision and even that is going to be difficult. Unfortunately, Forbes has already experienced what leaving a bout in the hands of the three blind mice at ringside can do to a career. Forbes completely dominated Demetrius Hopkins, Nephew of Bernard Hopkins, only to end up on the losing end of a lopsided decision.

Now Forbes will not only battle one of the most recognized fighters in the history of the sport, he also stands between a multi-million dollar rematch between De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather Jr. To say that Forbes will need to dominate De La Hoya from start to finish to ensure he gets a fair shake on the cards is an understatement.

I can see Forbes being extremely competitive in this fight, and having large amounts of success with Oscar’s style. I feel De La Hoya will be focused on working his jab and setting up his combinations in preparation for his fall rematch with Mayweather Jr.

I would be completely shocked if Oscar were able to stop Forbes. I feel most of the people predicting a blowout from Oscar have little idea just how tough and skilled Forbes truly is.

Boxeo: 2.64 Units On Oscar By Decision {-132}
Krakrabbit: 1.32 Units On Oscar By Decision {-132}
Grass Hopper: 1.00 Units On Forbes {+1300}
Doody: 2.00 Units On Oscar By KO {+175}
D3: 3.00 Units Oscar By KO {+175}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

This Saturday night, forty-three year old living legend Bernard Hopkins, (48-4-1, 32KO’s) looks to add undefeated Joe Calzaghe, (44-0, 32KO’s) to his ever growing list of “Executed” fighters. These two light heavyweights will face off live from the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas, NV.

Calzaghe opened the contest as the clear favorite in the bout coming in at -270. Hopkins supporters can get +230 on the future hall of famer.

The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -320 and the under landing at +260. Calzaghe by KO will net you +388, while Calzaghe by decision will cost you -108. Hopkins by KO hits the mark at +900, and Hopkins by decision lands at +400.

Although Hopkins enters the ring sporting the much more impressive resume, Calzaghe has been overseas taking care of his own business in very impressive fashion.

The southpaw super middleweight champion has never lost a professional bout, and is currently riding a high after soundly defeating the highly respected Mikkel Kessler last year.

Not to be outdone, Hopkins has faced and beaten Antonio Tarver and Winky Wright since losing his rematch to Jermain Taylor back in 2005.

Obviously, Tarver and Wright are much bigger names than Kessler so one might be inclined to question the oddsmaker’s sanity in making Hopkins a 2-1 underdog in this fight.

However, setting a line has more to do with wins and losses, and I believe the oddsmaker’s saw serious flaws in the game of Hopkins that they feel Calzaghe can exploit.

The major flaw in Hopkins game that may very well be the difference in the fight is his inability to throw punches!!

When Bernard Hopkins name is mentioned all you hear is how he has defined the odds and found the fountain of youth. Hopkins supporters claim the forty-three year old boxes like an up and coming twenty-seven year old.

Even though it is certainly evident that Hopkins is fighting at a much higher level than any other forty-three year old, the claims of his dominance in the ring are a bit far fetched.

The very first thing you need to look at are his last two opponents. Tarver, a former world champion, had to lose a ton of weight before their 2006 bout and fought a slow, lethargic fight that allowed Hopkins to throw whenever he wanted and rest whenever he felt the need.

Now, some people will simply shrug off my analysis of the Tarver bout as crying over spilled milk (I actually picked Hopkins for the upset) but I feel if you take a sneak peek back at last Saturday night’s fight between Tarver and Woods, you will see Tarver is a shell of his former self.

In Hopkins’ other win over Winky Wright, he was facing a fighter that moved up in weight (hey, isn’t Joe moving up in weight?) and has an extremely defensive style of fighting. Once again, the style of Wright allowed Hopkins to dictate the pace and throw when he wanted and rest whenever he felt the need.

I believe Hopkins has been able to compete at a higher level than most anticipated because he has recently faced fighters with styles that compliment his own. If you go back to the two Taylor fights, Taylor was more active than Hopkins and try as he might, the old lion could not muster up the energy to fight three minutes of every single round.

If Hopkins thought Taylor was an active fighter inside the ring, wait until he gets a glimpse of Joe Calzaghe.

Simply put, Calzaghe is a windmill inside the ring. He punches in bunches and has been widely criticized for “slapping” with his shots. If he has been able to score thirty-two stoppage wins by slapping his opponents to death, I pray for Hopkins sake he does not decide to close his glove and punch with authority.

In my opinion the style of Calzaghe is all wrong for Hopkins. Joe should be able to stand on the outside and outwork Hopkins whenever he feels like it. With that said, there is a real danger in this fight for Calzaghe. The danger zone for the undefeated fighter from Wales lies in any type of inside warfare with the cagey old vet.

Hopkins has often been criticized for being a “dirty” fighter. He is not afraid to hit his opponents low, come in with his head, and hold and maul his foe whenever they get close.

This “style” of fighting makes for horribly ugly bouts, but Hopkins has found a way to master this rough and tough inside game.

At his advanced fighting age he needs every advantage he can get, and his holding and hitting on the inside not only gives him the advantage of busting up the face of his opponents (he often can cause cuts by being rough on the inside) it allows him to control the punch output of his opponents.

If Calzaghe falls into this trap set by Hopkins, he will be in for a very long night.

I always hate fights where I have a strong feeling the bout might head to the scorecards. I don’t like when the three blind mice get involved, and would much rather prefer a legit stoppage win to a decision win any day.

With that said, a lot of respected cappers have nabbed Hopkins for the upset in this bout. They feel the old timer will counterpunch his way to a close decision win on the GBP (Golden Boy Promotions) fight card.

There is no question that very same thought has crossed my (Hopkins getting the benefit of the doubt on the cards.) Unfortunately, we all know that anything can happen when the three blind mice at ringside are in control, so I feel obligated to cover my Calzaghe decision bet with a Hopkins play.

Boxeo Bets: 5.40 Units Calzaghe By Decision {-108} & 1.50 Units On Hopkins By Decision {+400}
Krakrabbit: 1.08 Units On Calzaghe By Decision {-108}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Won’t Go 12 {+350} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 2.00 On Hopkins {+250} (Vegas Odds)
D3: 1.08 Units On Calzaghe By Decision {-108}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

This Saturday night, former “Contender” Alfonso Gomez, (18-3-2, 8KO’s) will face off against undefeated Miguel Cotto, (31-0, 25KO’s) live from the Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Cotto opened the contest as the clear favorite in the bout and even though his numbers continue to climb, public money has continued to flow in on the Puerto Rican superstar. Currently he is a –1200 favorite to defeat Gomez on Saturday night. Gomez supporters can get a whopping +800 for their money.

The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over coming in at +130 and the under landing at -150. Cotto by KO will cost you -197, while Cotto by decision will net you +300. Gomez by KO hits the mark at +1857, and Gomez by decision lands at +1420.

Even though Gomez has fought as high as 159.5 pounds, and has never been stopped in any of his losses, you can clearly see from the posted odds this bout is not expected to go deep into the fight.

While many fighters go undefeated throughout large portions of their careers, Cotto has done so while facing top tier competition, allowing only six boxers to hear the final bell against him.

His recent ten victims include: Shane Mosley (I personally thought Shane won) Randall Bailey, DeMarcus Corley, Mohamad Abdulaev, Ricardo Torres, Gianluca Branco, Paul Malignaggi, Carlos Quintana, Oktay Urkal, and Zab Judah.

Shane Mosley and Paul Malignaggi were the only two fighters in that stretch to hear the final bell. While I feel Cotto lost to Mosley, Malignaggi suffered an incredible beating in going the twelve round distance.

It is also important to note, the styles and skill levels of both Mosley and Malignaggi are head and shoulders above that of Gomez.

However, it is no secret that Cotto has struggled in some of his previous bouts. Out of all of the ten recent bouts that Cotto has been involved in four really stand out. The first is the bout with Mosley.

While the action in that fight was furious and both fighters had their moments, Mosley appeared the stronger, fresher fighter as the rounds wore on. I believe the wicked body punching of Mosley had Cotto in trouble and he was forced to get on his bike and “box” the remainder of the championship rounds.

I personally felt Mosley did enough in the fight to win a close decision, but the stars were not aligned properly that night and the three blind mice at ringside gave the bout to Cotto. I would love to see a rematch between the two fighters in the very near future.

The next interesting bout for Cotto was his fight with DeMarcus Corley. Cotto struggled with Corley, he was seriously hurt in that fight, and for a brief second it appeared Corley was going to stop him. Cotto was able to withstand the attack from “Chop Chop” and went on to score a controversial stoppage in Puerto Rico.

He also went life and death with Ricardo Torres, and was officially put on his bottom in that fight. He would once again gather himself and come back to score a highlight reel stoppage of the Columbian.

He just recently stopped Zab Judah in the eleventh round of their contest, but was rocked on more then a few occasions, and had to walk through some heavy leather before finally taking “Super” Judah out.

Cotto has shown remarkable determination and courage in all of his bouts. Even if he is hurt, dropped, or cut he will continue to press after his opponent, looking to put an end to the fight. It is that determination that breaks down most fighters as the rounds wear on.

Now Cotto will test his resolve against a fighter in Gomez that may just be able to match his grittiness inside the ring.

Although Gomez has little punching power, he has an aggressive in your face style, and possessed enough bang for his buck to get former world champion Arturo Gatti out of there before the final bell.

While Gomez does have three losses to his name, he has never been stopped and is heading into his bout with Cotto winning three of his last four by stoppage.

The major problem I see for Gomez in this fight is his lack of punching power. Forget that Cotto is the better aggressive, stalking type fighter. Forget that Cotto can move around the ring better than Gomez. Forget that his hand speed is far superior to Gomez’s.

Power can make every single one of those disadvantages mute, but unfortunately for Gomez and his supporters he does not possess that type of dynamite in his hands.

One thing Gomez does have is a very solid chin. However, even if Gomez is somehow able to put on a gritty performance, taking everything that is thrown his way, one will have to wonder how long the referee will allow him to take flush head and body shots from a pure puncher like Cotto.

Although we already touched on the lack of punching power from Gomez, I actually think his only shot in this fight is by stoppage. I know that may sound strange, and while I don’t expect him to do very much damage to Cotto upstairs, it is the solid body punching that will be his ticket to a win.

We all know you don’t need a tremendous amount of punching power to stop a fighter via bodyshot and I honestly believe the ability to absorb an aggressive non-stop body attack is one of the biggest glaring weaknesses in Miguel Cotto.

With that said, you have to like Miguel Cotto in the fight. While Gomez is a very tough hombre and certainly will not just lay down, if he is unable to slow Miguel Cotto down with his body attack I suspect he will probably start to wither in the mid rounds.

Nevertheless, there is no question in my mind that Cotto is going to have to bring some serious heat if he wants to get Alfonso Gomez out of there before the final bell.

Boxeo Bets: .50 Units On Gomez By KO {+1857} & 1.00 Units On Cotto By Decision {+300}
Krakrabbit: 1.97 Units On Cotto By KO {-197}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Gomez {+850}
Doody: 1.97 Units On Cotto By KO {-197}
D3: 1.97 Units On Cotto By KO {-197}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

On the undercard of Cotto/Gomez, IBF welterweight champion of the world Kermit Cintron, (29-1, 27KO’s) will rematch Antonio Margarito, (35-5, 25KO’s) live from the Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey.

As expected, Margarito opened the contest as the clear favorite in the bout coming in at –300. Cintron supporters get the dog money at +250. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over coming in at +145 and the under landing at -160.

Margarito by KO will cost you -150, while Margarito by decision will net you +562. Cintron by KO hits the mark at +537, and Cintron by decision lands at +542.

The main reason Margarito was expected to be the favorite in the rematch was not only because he beat Cintron in their original fight, but it was the way he did it that almost guaranteed if the two met again Margarito would be the odds on favorite to win the rematch.

Margarito simply walked right through Cintron in their first meeting. He took everything the hard-hitting Cintron could muster up without even flitching. When Cintron was able to land, but not hurt Margarito, the tide quickly began to change. Margarito applied his trademark pressure and Cintron quickly wilted under the bright lights of Las Vegas.

A major key for Margarito in that fight was his bodywork. I feel the bodywork of Margarito is what ultimately lead to his great success nailing Cintron upstairs.

Now, three years later the two will meet once again to settle the score.

In those three years since their first bout, not a lot has changed in terms of their fighting styles. Cintron has gone 5-0 with all five wins by stoppage, while Margarito has gone 3-1 with two stoppages.

Margarito’s lone loss since their first meeting came at the hands of former champion Paul Williams. Margarito started very slowly in that bout (what else is new) allowing Williams to build up a sizable lead on the scorecards. To his credit, Margarito did pick up the pace as the rounds wore on, but in the end it was too little too late.

Although Cintron is undefeated since their first meeting, he did struggle a bit in his last bout against Jesse Feliciano. In fact, while watching his lack of defense in his contest with the light-hitting Feliciano, one could not help but imagine what an opponent with true punching power would have done to Cintron on that night.

On Saturday, he faces a fighter with real knockout power. I think the longer the fight goes the better the chances are for Margarito to slowly wear Cintron down and stop him.

Even though with the devastating punching power of Cintron he will always be a very dangerous fighter to contend with inside the ring, I believe early in the fight, when both boxers are fresh, is where Cintron has his best opportunity to catch the slow starting Margarito with something big.

Although his power is not in question, the one area that Cintron has a huge question mark surrounding him is his mental game. When Margarito put the smack down on him in the first fight, you could visible see Cintron wanting to quit. He continued to look over at his corner, seemingly asking for them to stop the fight.

In the end this is exactly what happened and since that bout Cintron has never really been able to silence the critics that question his heart. On Saturday night he will have a rare second chance to exercise his demons.

I believe Cintron will look to box more in the rematch then he did in the first meeting. He will attempt to hit Margarito as he advances forward and tie him up on the inside. Margarito did his best work while close to Cintron; if he is once again allowed to rack the midsection of Kermit I don’t see the bout lasting very long.

Boxeo: 4.20 Units On Under 9.5 {-140}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Cintron {+260}
Doody: 1.50 Units On Margarito By KO {-150}
D3: 1.50 Units On Margarito By KO {-150}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night, Showtime main event features current IBF light heavyweight champion of the world Clinton Woods, (41-3, 24KO’s) squaring off with current IBO light heavyweight champion of the world Antonio Tarver, (26-4, 19KO’s) live from the St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa, Florida.

The line opened with Tarver as the ever so slight favorite in the fight, but back and fourth action has the current line resting at –110 for Tarver and –110 for Woods. The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at –200 and the under landing at +170.

Woods by KO comes in at +386, while Woods by decision will get you +207. Tarver by KO hits the mark at +368, and Tarver by decision lands at +217. As you can see from the posted odds, this bout is expected to go deep into the fight.

If you take a look at the above odds you will see just how closely the oddsmaker’s have set this line. Although Woods is fighting in Tarver’s backyard, the current line has both fighters resting at –110.

Although Tarver is clearly the bigger name in this match-up, he has recently appeared to be rapidly slowing down inside the ring. In his last six bouts Tarver has went 4-2, with only one single stoppage win in that span.

Granted, he has faced the likes of Roy Jones jr., Glen Johnson, and Bernard Hopkins in that stretch, but it is the lack of energy displayed inside the ring that have many experts calling the thirty-nine year old southpaw a shot fighter.

Saturday night he gets another chance to prove all of the critics wrong when he faces off with the United Kingdom’s Clinton Woods.

In Woods he is facing an equally experienced fighter having faced off with the likes of Glen Johnson, Julio Cesar Gonzalez, and Roy Jones Jr.

However, if there were ever a time for Tarver to shine that time is now. On paper Woods presents a style that should allow Tarver to tee off with every punch in the book. Woods is not hailed for his defensive mastery, and the southpaw Tarver can certainly crack with his left hand (just ask Roy Jones.)

Woods went life and death three times with Glen Johnson and twice with Julio Cesar Gonzalez. I would rank Tarver ahead of both of those fighters in the skill and power departments.

Even though Tarver appears to have the skill and punching power advantages over Woods, the question remains… can he pull it off?

Tarver must be in solid physical condition to beat Woods. Even in his top form Tarver was never a windmill when it comes to punch output. Woods will clearly have the advantage in work rate and if the bout goes to the scorecards one would expect if the fight were on the level (who knows what will happen when the three blind mice get involved) Woods would have a clear advantage due to his higher punch output.

The glaring difference between the two fighters is in the power department. If Tarver is on his game, I feel the defensive lapses of Woods will probably be to great for him to overcome.

With that said, we don’t know if Tarver will be on his game or not. I think the most logical outcome (excluding a crooked decision) is a decision win for Woods if Tarver has indeed faded, or a knockout victory for Tarver if he has a little something left in the tank.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Tarver By KO {+368} & 1.00 Units On Woods By Decision {+207}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.00 Units On Woods {+130}
D3: 1.10 Units On Tarver {-110}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

This Saturday night, WBC light heavyweight champion of the world Chad Dawson, (25-0, 17KO’s) faces off against the tough as nails Glen Johnson, (47-11-2, 32KO’s) live from the St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa, Florida.

Dawson opened the contest as the clear favorite in the bout and currently rests at –355. Johnson supporters can grab +295 for their money. The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -320 and the under landing at +260.

Dawson by KO will net you +391, while Dawson by decision will cost you -140. Johnson by KO hits the mark at +832, and Johnson by decision lands at +497.

It is clear from the opening line that oddsmakers are expecting a decision win for Dawson. I do think the props on Johnson should be reversed because I feel his only opportunity to win the fight will be by knockout!

Dawson is the younger, faster, more skilled fighter in the match-up and will look to employ his quicker hand speed and better footwork to counterpunch Johnson as he marches forward.

I don’t see anyway the thirty-nine year old Johnson will be able to keep up with his southpaw foe enough to win on the scorecards. The “Road Warrior’s” best opportunity will lie in his two fists and the chin of Dawson.

Dawson has been put on the seat of his pants before, and Johnson has shown in the past he possesses enough dynamite in his gloves to get his opponents out of there. When he has been unable to stop his foes, a knockdown here or there can be the difference between a win and a loss on the scorecards.

With that said, I do not expect Johnson to end up scoring multiple knockdowns over Dawson without eventually stopping him. Johnson is a very hard man to defeat, and his constant pressure has broken down many fighters.

The game plans are very simple in this fight. Johnson will need a knockdown to win and Dawson has the ability to box the ears of off his ageing opponent. I would be surprised if the outcome ended up being anything other then Johnson by knockout or Dawson by decision.

Boxeo Bets: 1.00 Units on Johnson By KO {+832} & 5.60 Units On Dawson By Decision {-140}
KrakRabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.40 Units On Dawson By Decision {-140}
D3: 1.40 Units On Dawson By Decision {-140}

Telefutura Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight on Telefutura former champion Jesus Chavez, (42-4, 29KO’s) returns to the ring after a one-year layoff to face rising prospect Daniel Jimenez, (17-2-1, 10KO’s) live from the Morongo Casino Resort & Spa, Cabazon California.

The veteran Chavez opened as the slight favorite in the bout, and is currently sitting as a -220 favorite. Jimenez supporters can grab the underdog money at +180. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +250 and the over at -300.

Chavez by KO comes in at +515, while Chavez by decision will cost you -115. Jimenez by KO hits the mark at +499, and Jimenez by decision lands at +401.

Even though Chavez is heading into this fight after a one-year layoff due to a brutal knee injury that stopped him in his last bout against Julio Diaz, the oddsmakers have still made him a 2-1 favorite over his younger opponent.

This very well could be a case of the line being made on the Chavez of old and not an old Chavez. Simply put… at this stage of the game we have no idea what Chavez has left in the tank.

In his single fight since the tragic death of Levander Johnson, Chavez looked horrible in blowing out his knee in the third round of his fight against Julio Diaz. Just like this current fight, the oddsmakers had tabbed his bout with Diaz as a distance affair but that bout never ended up hitting the halfway mark.

After such a long layoff for the ex-champion, not to mention ballooning up in weight, I have a feeling the younger Jimenez could be in a prime position to pull off the upset over his more experienced foe.

If Chavez is slipping a bit, or just carries some good old fashion ring rust into the ring, Jimenez is a fighter that certainly should exploit those weaknesses. Jimenez not only applies a great deal of pressure against his opponents, he also lets his hands go on a regular basis.

Even if Chavez should somehow pull this fight off, there is zero chance I am laying –200 on a fighter that is coming off a year layoff and has a bum knee.

Boxeo Bets: 2.00 Units On Jimenez {+185} & .50 Units On Jimenez By Decision {+401}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Jimenez {+185}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .50 Units On Chavez by KO {+515}
D3: 1.00 Units On Jimenez {+185}

VERSUS Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight on VERSUS fight fans are treated to a co-main event bout featuring rising prospect Yuri Foreman, (24-0, 8KO’s) facing off against the hard-hitting Saul Roman, (28-4, 24KO’s) live from the Aviator Sports Arena, Brooklyn, New York.

Foreman enters this contest as the favorite at -225. Roman gets the underdog cash at +185. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over at -335 and the under coming in at +275.

Foreman by KO comes in at +879, while Foreman by decision will cost you -147. Roman by KO hits the mark at +404, and Roman by decision lands at +497.

Although Foreman is undefeated and considered a rising superstar, he has very little knockout power. As you can see from the posted odds, even though his opponent has been stopped in all four of his losses, the oddsmakers are expecting Yuri to box his way to a decision win.

Should the bout go to the cards, the hometown location of the fight must be viewed as a major benefit for Foreman.

As is usually the case with unknown fighters sporting impressive records, Roman has fought most of his competition outside the United States. His impressive 24 stoppages in 27 wins have come against very limited opposition. His four losses (all by stoppage) have come at the hands of Jesus Soto Karass, Marco Antonio Rubio, Sergio Martinez, and Daniel Stanisavljevic.

Karass, Rubio and Martinez were all a step up in class from the horrendous pugs he had been facing, but Stanisavljevic was 7-12-2 when they faced off and Roman didn’t make it past four rounds.

However, Roman took a giant step-up class in his last bout when he squared off with former champion Kassim Ouma. Entering the bout as a +2000 underdog, Roman surprised everyone by not only beating Ouma, but also doing it by split decision.

The win over Ouma definitely should have infused some much-needed confidence in the twenty-seven year old. Now he has been granted another prime opportunity to raise his stock even further by beating the light-hitting Foreman in his own backyard.

Although Foreman cannot crack an egg, it won’t be easy for Roman to get a win against the undefeated light middleweight.

Foreman is a quick-handed fighter that will almost certainly be looking to employ a game plan of firing off combination shots and quickly getting out of harms way.

With that said, Roman showed a better than expected skill set against Ouma, and also displayed solid conditioning that allowed him to match Ouma punch for punch.

While there is little doubt Foreman is the more skilled boxer in the match, he will need to execute his game plan of “hit and not be hit” to perfection because his opponent has tremendous knockout power and can end the night at anytime.

I feel Roman has enough skills to make this match interesting. One would assume his only chance is to win by stoppage, but he showed in his recent win over Ouma that if he cannot get you out of there with his powershots, he will put in the necessary work round after round to keep himself in the fight on the judges scorecards.

Boxeo Bets: 1.00 Units On Roman {+185}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Roman {+185}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.47 Units On Foreman By Decision {-147}
D3: N/P

Internet Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight via special GoFightlive.com Internet broadcast, old timers Raul Marquez, (40-3, 29KO’s) and Bronco McKart, (51-8, 31KO’s) square off in a ten round middleweight bout live from the Soaring Eagle Casino, Mt. Pleasant, MI.

The oddsmakers have opened the line in slight favor of the younger Marquez (who is one year younger than McKart) at –155. McKart gets the plus money at +135. The O/U in the bout has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -110, and under coming in at -110.

Although both of these fighters are well past their fighting primes, both guys still possess enough skills to make an entertaining match.

Marquez comes into the contest sporting an impressive five-fight win streak, all by stoppage, since his 2006 ninth round stoppage loss to Jermain Taylor. Bronco McKart has also had similar success inside the ring, sporting an impressive 3-1 record since his destruction at the hands of Kelly Pavlik back in 2006.

When two southpaws meet you can never tell if the fight will turn out to be a stinker or not. The styles of these two fighters could lead to a boring tactical match. Neither fighter is considered much of a puncher, and both of them possess the necessary boxing skills to keep their opponents at bay.

McKart would appear to have the edge in the hand speed department, and mixes in more combination punching than Marquez. In my opinion, Marquez is a basic boxer that does everything well, but nothing great.

Another knock on Marquez is his face. All three of his losses have come by stoppage. Most people would look at that stat as confirmation that he has a weak chin, but his tender skin has caused him more trouble than a weak beard.

The deficiencies for Marquez do not stop there. Another glaring weakness in the game of the former champion is his inability to defend his opponent’s shots. Marquez is less than stellar on the defensive side of the game, and this is one reason his face gets busted up so easily. He simply never met a punch he didn’t like.

McKart is not without his own weaknesses. In his last fight with Ornelas he appeared to simply quit. He was well in control of the match when Ornelas began peppering his body with hard thumping punches. The bodywork clearly caused Mckart trouble and he quickly found himself on the canvas being counted out.

McKart insists the reason he could not continue is not because of the body attack from his opponent, but because he suffered a broken eardrum in the match.

With only two stoppage losses in his long career, McKart may certainly be accurate when describing the events that lead to his latest stoppage loss, or at the age of thirty-seven may no longer have the burning desire to go through the adversity that is sometimes presented in a prizefight.

Heading into this fight I think McKart has a few more advantages over Marquez. He is the faster guy and unlike in his last bout with Ornelas, tonight he will not have to worry about serious punching power from Marquez.

Another factor to consider is the location of the fight. They are squaring off in Mt. Pleasant Michigan, and McKart is from Monroe Michigan. One would assume that if the fight goes to the cards McKart would have the edge. Although with the recent Spinks debacle, one can never be too confident when any fight is left in the hands of the three blind mice at ringside.

I also like the fact this bout is ten rounds instead of twelve. This current version of McKart fights in spurts and tends to slow down as the rounds wear on. I think a ten round distance certainly favors McKart.

While I think the bout will probably be competitive, I see McKart outworking Marquez with the faster combination shots, enroute to a decision win.

Boxeo Bets: 1.00 Units On McKart {+135}
KrackRabbit: .20 Units On McKart {+135}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.00 Units On McKart {+135}
D3: 1.35 Units On Marquez {-135}

ESPN Predictions
By Boxeo

The Friday night ESPN main event features former champion Kassim Ouma, (25-4-1, 15KO’s) facing off against former “Contender” Cornelius Bundrage, (27-3, 16KO’s) live from the Seneca Allegheny Casino & Hotel, Salamanca, New York.

Ouma comes into the contest as the clear favorite in the bout at -700. Bundrage gets the underdog cash at +500. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over at -110 and the under coming in at -110.

Ouma by KO comes in at +103, while Ouma by decision will reward you with +166. Bundrage by KO hits the mark at +1761, and Bundrage by decision lands at +684.

Even though Ouma is coming off a disappointing ten round split decision loss four months ago to +2000 underdog Saul Roman (I scored a nice hit on that one!) the oddsmakers have still opened him as the clear favorite in the fight.

The only logical reason I can see for the oddsmakers making Ouma such an overwhelming favorite against Bundrage is due to his inactivity before the Roman fight. It would appear the powers that be feel his ten-month layoff before the Roman fight was the glaring reason he lost to such a prohibitive underdog.

While Ouma certainly did have inactivity and legal issues heading into the Roman bout, he also has a very distinct flaw that will always leave him open to being beaten…his total lack of defense!

He has been floored before and suffered one of his losses by stoppage. Even though Bundrage is not a huge puncher, he can crack with the right hand (a nice weapon against a southpaw.)

If we are talking about china, then it is only fair to disclose the questionable beard of Bundrage. In his three losses he has been stopped a total of two times. His most recent stoppage loss came just eight months ago against the hard-hitting Joel Julio.

Although Ouma comes nowhere near producing the devastating power of Julio, he does tend to wear opponents down with his non-stop aggressive attack. He throws punches in bunches, and that type of work rate is very hard for most opponents to keep up with.

However, in his last fight against Roman he did not have that non-stop attack that Ouma fans have become accustom to. It certainly could have been because of the layoff, but I have a gut feeling that Ouma may be slowing down just a bit.

I believe that Ouma gets hit way too much to be a –700 favorite over any quality fighter. His lack of defense will always make for uneasy times when laying huge chalk on him, not to mention his lack of serious punching power.

Ouma wins his bouts by outworking his opponents. If he is indeed slowing down a bit his trademark punch output may decline and cause him serious difficulties inside the ring.

While it’s no secret that most people do not consider Bundrage to be an elite level guy, there is no question in my mind “K9” has the better skill set over Roman. If Roman was able to find a way to beat Ouma, I think Bundrage certainly must be considered a live underdog in this fight!

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Bundrage {+500} & .50 Units On Bundrage By KO {+1761}
Krakrabbit: .20 Units On Ouma By Decision {+166}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.00 Units On Ouma By Decision {+166}
D3: 1.00 Units On Ouma By KO {+103}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night HBO main event features a lightweight contest between battle tested Joel Casamayor, (35-3-1, 21KO’s) and knockout artist Michael Katsidis, (23-0, 20KO’s) live from the Morongo Casino Resort & Spa, Cabazon California.

As expected, Joel Casamayor opened as the slight underdog in the bout, but since the line opened there has been nothing but Katsidis money coming in. Currently he is a – 225 favorite to defeat Casamayor. Casamayor supporters can grab the underdog money at +185. The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +160 and the over at -185.

Katsidis by KO comes in at +220, while Katsidis by decision will reward you with +191. Casamayor by KO hits the mark at +575, and Casamayor by decision lands at +357.

The main reason for Casamayor opening as an underdog against his less experienced opponent is due in large part to his horrendous performance four months ago against Jose Armando Cruz.

Casamayor entered his bout with Cruz after a thirteen-month layoff, and it clearly showed. Cruz pressed the action from start to finish and appeared to outwork Casamayor over the twelve round distance.

However, when the decision was announced in favor of Casamayor by scores of 114-113 (twice) and 113-114 Cruz, the crowd went hysterical. Many experts and fans alike believe there is no doubt Cruz did enough throughout the fight to clearly beat Casamayor. In fact, most people only gave Casamayor a hand full of rounds in the entire contest.

While in many people’s eyes Casamayor received an early Christmas present against Cruz, Katsidis did not have such an easy outing against his last opponent Czar Amonsot.

Katsidis struggled early against Amonsot, and showed a serious lack of defense throughout the entire bout. The truth is, his lack of being able to move his face away from the leather hurling towards him has caused his face to swell and cut in numerous previous fights. This fight was no exception. From early on in the contest he was forced to fight with his eyes swollen and his face shredded.

Many ringside observers, as well as fight fans watching at home, could not believe their eyes when round after round Katsidis was allowed to continue fighting even though his face was a bloody mess.

Although Katsidis came away from the bout with a more lopsided victory then Casamayor, he certainly did not display the kind of attributes that one would need to beat a prime Casamayor.

You will notice I said a “prime” Casamayor. The single biggest question mark regarding this fight is how much gas does Casamayor have left in the tank?

“El Cepillo” fans point to the extremely long layoff and height and reach of Cruz as the main source of his poor performance, but there have been others who suggest that Casamayor is simply facing the last leg of his long illustrious career.

I believe if Casamayor has anything left in the tank he will dispose of Katsidis! “El Cepillo” is a masterful counter puncher and Katsidis has never met a punch he didn’t like. His face falls apart at the sight of a flush punch and his defense is non-existent. Should Casamayor be on his game, stylistically this will turn out to be a very bad match-up for Katsidis.

However, there is no denying the possibility that Casamayor may have reached the point in his career where he can no longer produce fast, crisp, clean counterpunches. If that were indeed the case, one would expect the aggressiveness of Katsidis to be the deciding factor in the fight.

With that said, I am anticipating a counterpunching exhibition from Casamayor that slices, dices, and ends the undefeated record of Michael Katsidis.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Casamayor {+185} & .50 Units On Casamayor By KO {+575}
Krakrabbit: .20 Units On Katsidis By KO {+220}
Grass Hopper: 3.00 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full Rounds {+125}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Katsidis By Decision {+191}
D3: 1.00 Units On Casamayor {+185}

HBO PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night HBO PPV main event features the rematch between battle tested Juan Manuel Marquez, (48-3-1, 35KO’s) and knockout artist Manny “Pac Man” Pacquiao, (45-3-2, 35KO’s) live from the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino, Las Vegas, NV

As expected, Manny “Pac Man” Pacquiao opened as the slight favorite in the bout, but since the lined opened there has been nothing but Pacquiao money coming in. Currently he is a – 210 favorite to defeat Marquez. Marquez supporters can grab the underdog money at +175. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +150 and the over at -170.

Pac Man by KO comes in at +197, while Pacquiao by decision will reward you with +200. Marquez by KO hits the mark at +860, and Marquez by decision lands at +300.

Although Marquez has never been stopped in his three losses, recently I have noticed that he is taking more and more solid shots in his fights. He tends to become more aggressive than necessary in his bouts, and that almost cost him a victory in his contest against Barrera.

After stunning the baby-faced assassin, Marquez was severely hurt and dropped (although it was not ruled a knockdown) trying to finish off his wounded opponent. Luckily for Marquez this action took place towards the end of the round and he was able to recover and go on to win the decision. Although the scores in the bout were extremely lopsided, many experts felt the fight was much closer than the three ringside judges indicated.

There are a few signs that could possibly point to a Pacquiao victory. Marquez going life and death with an ageing boxer like Barrera gives Pacquiao backers the hope that Marquez has faded a bit since the first fight nearly four years ago.

The other important factor to note is the style of Marquez. Marquez is not a “runner.” Even after being hurt and dropped by Barrera, Marquez came out for the next round standing right in front of Marco and even began trading with him again.

He displayed that same warrior mentality against Manny Pacquiao in the first round of their fight when he was dropped three times. Never did he try to hold “Pac Man” or run away, he stayed right in front of him and threw his own shots.

Marquez cannot afford to trade with Pacquiao for long stretches at a time. For all of Pacquiao’s technical shortcomings, the kid can punch. While Marquez has never been stopped, he has reached the age where most fighters start to experience extreme wear and tear on their bodies.

With that said, Pacquiao has with a doubt progressed as a fighter since their first meeting back in 2004. Pacquiao’s long time trainer Freddie Roach has done wonders with the hard-hitting “Pac Man,” adding a very respectable body attack to his repertoire (just ask Erik Morales) as well as a slowly improving lead right hook from the southpaw.

Although I have praised Pacquiao about his ability to improve his techniques, it is not all sunshine and flowers when it comes to “Partying” Pacquiao. Recently, as he has become a larger than life star in his native Philippines, there have been more and more rumors about how his nightlife and celebrity status have started to take their toll on his training habits.

It has been suggested that Pacquiao is relying more on his pure talent and spending less and less time in the gym doing quality work. It’s funny because if you look at Pacquiao he always appears to be in great shape. With his shredded abs and Bruce Lee like build, you might get committed to the nutty farm if you suggested to the average fight fan “Pac Man” might be out of shape. But as we all know, looking in shape and being in fighting shape are two very different things.

You only need to look as far as Pacquiao’s last fight against Barrera to see signs of his decline inside the ring. He looked absolutely horrible in the rematch against the severely faded Barrera. The rumor mill was circulating before that fight about the lack of dedication in the gym from Pacquiao, and from his appearance in the ring, it appeared he might not have been as well prepared as a fighter on his level should be.

In fact, just this week “Pac Man” admitted to not being fully dedicated to the sport and not being as “hungry” as he was in the past. He insists he has regained his focus for the Marquez rematch and even plans to cut back on his gambling and drinking.

I can tell you that Manny appeared to be very heavy coming into training camp for this fight. Now, it’s no secret fighters balloon up in weight in-between fights, but as fighters age it tends to become harder and harder on their bodies to lose large amounts of weight in a rather quick time frame.

Marquez’s ability to use his jab and solid counterpunching abilities, combined with the constant rumor mill of Pacquiao’s lack of dedication to the sport, are the major reasons people can envision an upset win for Marquez.

So how exactly does Marquez go about beating Pacquiao and putting a gigantic exclamation point on his career? Well, even though Pacquiao has been stopped two out of his three losses, I feel the best way for Marquez to beat “Pac Man” would be to counterpunch.

Marquez has the ability to stand and trade, but only in certain spots. Pacquiao showed in the first fight that he could match, even overpower Marquez in a toe-to-toe slugfest. I believe even if Marquez could out gun Pacquiao (he can’t) it would be unwise for him to do so for any length of time.

Although Marquez has never been stopped, Pacquiao did put him on the seat of his pants three times in one single round! However, Marquez was not only able to get off the floor three separate times, he actually fought Pacquiao on even terms for most of the bout.

This fight is all about styles. Marquez is always going to be a difficult style for Pacquiao to beat. Marquez is a masterful boxer/puncher. After the first round of their original fight, Pacquiao had serious trouble slowing down the accuracy of Marquez’s counter shots. Just imagine the possibilities of what Marquez can do to him if he does not get hurt or dropped early in the rematch.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Marquez {+200}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Pacquaio By KO {+200} & .50 Units On Marquez By Dec {+300}
Grass Hopper: 3.00 Units On Marquez {+200} & 4.00 Units On Won’t Go 12 (Vegas Odds) {+160}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Pacquaio By KO {+200}
D3: 1.00 Units On Marquez {+200}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight we are treated to heavyweight title affair when Oleg Maskaev, (34-5, 26KO’s) defends his WBC strap against heavy-handed Samuel Peter, (29-1, 22KO’s) live from the Plaza De Toros, Cancun, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

Peter opened as the clear favorite in the fight and has pretty much hovered around the current –420 mark. Maskaev supporters can grab the underdog cash at +335. The O/U on the bout is set at 6.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +125 and the over at -145.

Peter by KO comes in at -192, while Peter by decision will reward you with +502. Maskaev by KO hits the mark at +847, and Maskaev by decision lands at +582. The odds the fight is declared a draw land at +2750.

Before I get into the preview of the fight I feel it is important to note the current feud between the WBC heavyweight champion of the world Oleg Maskaev, and the World Boxing Council.

Apparently, the dispute between Maskaev and the WBC started back in 2007 when Maskaev was diagnosed with herniated discs that forced him to pull out of an October match with Peter. The WBC named Samuel Peter as the “Interim” WBC heavyweight champion, and team Maskaev felt the WBC was giving Peter preferential treatment.

Team Maskaev cited many previous champions that became injured that never had an “Interim” champion named. Maskaev’s manager Fred Kesch was livid about the ruling and complained it would further reduce his fighter’s earnings.

“The champ usually gets a 70-30 split," Kesch said. "Oleg was going to do this fight for 55-45. He was getting robbed of 15 percent already. Now that he's hurt, he's getting robbed even further. It's outrageous.”

The purse split would become such a huge issue to the Maskaev camp that he would sue the WBC in United States District Court. The lawsuit was suspended in favor of the compulsory mediation and binding mandatory arbitration provided in the WBC Rules and Regulations.

The quarrel between the WBC and team Maskaev did not stop with the mediation. In fact, things appeared to heat up more as the details of the bout began to emerge. Maskaev’s promoter Dennis Rappaport has been leading the charge against the WBC and what he deems are unfair tactics to take the belt from his fighter.

Rappaport insists the WBC has been playing games with his fighter and points to a wide variety of circumstances that he believes proves the WBC’s foul intentions.

“There was the issue of date and location of the bout. Initially, there were hopes that the fight could be held in Sacramento before talk of going back to Russia.”

Rappaport said he was told the fight would be Feb 2nd at New York’s Madison Square Garden, and then Cancun materialized.

“We’ve been training for the fight for at least six months. How does a Russian-American fight a Nigerian in Mexico? Unless they figure that’s the easiest place to screw us.”

Because of the lawsuit against the WBC, Rappaport asked the WBC to allow neutral athletic commissions in the U.S. or in Britain to pick the referee and judges. The WBC denied his request, and appointed the referee as well as the three ringside judges.

“It’s a classic conflict of interest,” said Rappaport.

With all of that said, now Maskaev and Peter will finally settle this clash inside the ring. Both fighters are coming off wins in their last bout, but Maskaev has been out of action due to a bad back for 15 months.

Although Peter has been more active, he is coming off an unimpressive decision win over Jameel McCline, in a bout where he was put on the seat of his pants three separate times.

The three knockdowns suffered at the hands of the light hitting McCline seriously raised questions about the perceived invincibility of Peter. Although he was on the losing end of a decision to Wladimir Klitshcko, he did drop him three times over the course of the twelve round affair. Peter had no such luck against McCline, and was forced to outwork him over the twelve round distance.

Heading into tonight’s showdown, there are no doubt a lot of questions surrounding both fighters. Not only has Maskaev been inactive for fifteen months, but also his dispute with the WBC cannot be looked upon as a positive factor in the fight. If that wasn’t enough for Maskaev to overcome, he has also had serious chin issues in the past (all five losses are by stoppage) and now has the pleasure of defending his title against the hard-punching Peter.

However, Peter is not without his own critics. We already touched on his three knockdown humiliation against McCline, but truth be told, Peter has not looked spectacular inside the ring in quite awhile.

In his last three fights he has gone a total of thirty-six rounds. He had a disputed decision win over James Toney back in 2006. Then in 2007, fought Toney for a second time, coming away with the clear unanimous decision win. His last fight was the McCline fight where he had to climb off the canvas three times to win the fight. Not exactly a great way to head into a title fight against Maskaev.

The knock on Peter is he is a pure slugger who tires after five rounds. A lot of his stamina issues are rumored to be because of his lack of dedication in the gym. In fact, it was believed that Peter came into this camp weighing close to 300 pounds. If that number is correct, he was able to drop fifty pounds in camp, weighing in at 250 pounds for this title bout.

Before the McCline fight I believe most people thought Peter would steamroll Maskaev in the first three rounds. However, after his poor showing many people began to give the forty-year-old champion a legitimate shot of upsetting him.

The argument for a Maskaev win is a simple one. If the soft punching McCline can drop Peter three times, the more powerful Maskaev can put him down and out.

You could also argue that Maskaev is the more mobile of the two and could conceivable outbox Peter and when on the scorecards. On the other hand, the issue with the WBC does not sit well with me and anyone who has Maskaev by decision will certainly be on pins and needles should it go to the cards.

I think Maskaev has a legit punchers chance to catch Peter and take him out. Of course, Peter will probably be looking to do the same and the first few rounds could end up being pure dynamite. If Peter should tap the chin of Maskaev early, this one could be over quickly.

I am not sure how much the old man has left, but at +800 I will take a shot that he finds a home for a big shot and gets Peter out of there.

Boxeo Bets: .75 Units On Maskaev By KO {+847}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Under 6.5 Rounds {+125}
Grass Hopper: 3.00 Units On Maskaev (+375}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Maskaev {+375}
D3: 1.00 Units On Maskaev {+375}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night on the undercard of Sam Peter vs. Oleg Maskaev, John Ruiz, (42-7-1, 29KO’s) returns to action against “Bit Time” Jameel McCline, (38-8-3, 23KO’s) live from the Plaza De Toros, Cancun, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

Ruiz opened as the ever so slight favorite in the bout, but a heaping of public dough came in on the “Quiet Man” and his number jumped to -210. With the recent influx of Ruiz money, McCline’s number has been brought up to +175.

The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over at a whopping -350 and the under coming in at +250.

With a combined record of 80-15-4, 52KO’s, I think it’s safe to say these are two veteran heavyweights stepping in the ring.

McCline is coming off one of his better showings five months ago, in a losing effort against Sam Peter. McCline entered his bout against Peter as a substantial underdog, but quickly got to work, dropping Peter a total of three times in the fight.

Even though he appeared to be just one or two solid punches away from the upset, he simply could not muster up the gas to put his wounded foe away. Little by little he allowed Peter to creep back into the fight, eventually losing a unanimous decision over twelve rounds.

Fading as the rounds wear on is nothing new to Jameel McCline. In fact, most of his losses came at the hands of the fatigue fairy. For whatever reason, he usually starts his bouts well and then as the rounds wear on, his punch output severely drops and he finds himself increasingly behind on the scorecards.

In his battle with Ruiz, I expected weariness to become a major issue for “Big Time” Jameel McCline.

While the style of Ruiz can only be described as atrocious, he has become a master at the one-two-hold method. It would appear Ruiz has stumbled onto a technique (can you call it that?) that can frustrate every fighter from journeymen status to world-class champions.

With the exception of the David Tua loss (KO 1) and the Roy Jones Jr. loss (L UD), most of his losses have come by split decision or Majority decision. There is no question Ruiz knows how to maximize the effectiveness of his hit and hold style.

Usually Ruiz will take a few rounds to get his hugging action into full swing. He is much more effective with his unpleasant system as the rounds wear on. I believe a lot of his effectiveness in the mid to late rounds has to do with the mauling and ugly infighting he delivers over the course of the first half of the fight.

It takes a tremendous amount of energy to try and keep Ruiz off of your chest for an entire fight, and try as they might, most of his opponents find themselves fading as the rounds wear on.

If there ever were a perfect time to implement plan “huggy”, now is that time. McCline has been known to fade in traditional boxing matches; once Ruiz puts the hug on him he won’t know what hit him!

Some of you may point to the size and reach advantage McCline has over Ruiz as a gigantic (no pun intended) advantage in the fight, but I can honestly say I doubt there are many fighters in the sport that can keep Ruiz at bay.

You need a fighter like Roy Jones Jr. who was able to use his speed and mobility to stay as far away from Ruiz as possible to neutralize “Huggy Bear.” Any heavyweight that stands in front of him will always be susceptible to being held.

I think McCline will start off the bout well and then tire as Ruiz puts the hold on him. I suppose McCline is physically big enough to stay in the fight, but I don’t feel his punch out-put will allow him to win on the scorecards.

Boxeo Bets: 1.25 Units On Ruiz {-125}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.25 Units On Ruiz {-125}
D3: 1.00 Units On McCline {+180}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Also on the undercard of Sam Peter vs. Oleg Maskaev, Juan “Baby Bull” Diaz, (33-0, 17KO’s) will defend his lightweight title against the hard-hitting Nate “Galaxxy Warrior” Campbell, (31-5-1, 25KO’s) live from the Plaza De Toros, Cancun, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

Diaz opened as a -800 favorite in the bout, but a flood of public bread came in on Campbell, dropping the “Baby Bull’s” number to -450. Campbell currently rests as a +360 dog. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -210 and the under coming in at +175.

Diaz by KO comes in at +169, while Diaz by decision will reward you with +108. Campbell by KO hits the mark at +578, and Campbell by decision lands at +1236. The odds the fight is declared a draw land at +3000.

The huge drop in odds may be directly related to the announcement by Don King that he will no longer represent the “Baby Bull” after this fight. Apparently, Willie Savanna, the manger of Diaz, has been ruffling a lot of feathers with the people involved with the young champion. Just recently famed attorney Fred Levin resigned from the Diaz camp.

When such a large amount of money is bet in a prizefight that a line drops from –800 to –450, you would be foolish not to take notice. This is not to suggest there are some behind the scene shenanigans, but to move a line that many points takes a great deal of heavy action (especially if you factor in the wagering limits at most books.)

While the thirty-five-year old Campbell has been around forever, and scored numerous quality wins in his career, he is without a doubt best known for his knockout loss at the hands of Robbie Peden. It wasn’t so much that Campbell lost to Peden that shocked the boxing community, but the way it happened that is forever etched in the minds of boxing fans.

Campbell appeared to have the bout in hand when for some baffling reason he dropped his hands and stuck out his chin, inviting Peden to try his hand at knocking him out. Peden obliged, and did just that…stopping Campbell in one of the more memorable boxing moments.

I am certain a lot of people lost a great deal of money on Campbell’s inexplicable actions, and whenever you look back at the career of the “Galaxxy Warrior” that fight is certain to stand out.

If Campbell knows what’s good for him he will not try any high jinks against the Champion Diaz!

Juan Diaz is an in your face, pressure type of fighter. It is easiest to describe Juan as a bigger Wayne McCullough, with more power. He will come right out after Campbell and look to make it a slugfest from the start. Although Juan may have more power than McCullough, for his weight class, he is not considered a big puncher. He simply overwhelms his opponents with non-stop punching from start to finish.

Nate Campbell is the complete opposite of Juan. He does not throw a large volume of punches per round, but packs a much bigger punch. He can stand and bang, or get on his wheels and move around the ring.

As is the case with most of Diaz’s opponents, Nate Campbell will have more options in the fight than Juan. He can stand and trade with the “Baby Bull”, or try and lure him in to a thunderous counter shot that ends the night. I think at some point in the fight you will get to see Campbell in both these roles.

There is little doubt in my mind that Juan will force Campbell to stand and trade. The “Baby Bull” just applies too much pressure and throws too many shots for an adequate, but not spectacular boxer like Campbell to keep him off all night.

Even though Campbell packs dynamite in his gloves, that does not mean he should abandon his boxing game plan. I think if he boxes and uses his counter punching ability, he can walk Juan into a powerful counter shot that may have the “Baby Bull” looking up at the lights. It is this reason, and this reason alone, that Campbell must stick to spots where he tries to counter Juan as he bullies forward.

With that said, if Diaz has his way this bout will be decided in the trenches. Juan applies so much pressure that his opponents are forced to try and match him punch for punch or risk being pummeled along the ring ropes. He is a non-stop punching machine, and even though he has very little one-punch knockout power, he can score stoppages by battering and tiring out his opponents.

If Campbell allows Juan to get into his pressure-fighting mode, this is where the conditioning of Campbell will come into play. Very few fighters can match Juan in the work rate department, and as the rounds go by they get deeper and deeper into a scoring deficiency. The combination of absorbing a million shots, and knowing you are losing badly on the scorecards tends to quickly wear a fighter down physically and mentally.

There is no doubt Campbell is a very live dog here. He possesses both skill and power, but is very unpredictable in the ring. To beat Diaz you will either need to out slick him or make him timid with power shots. Although Campbell cannot out slick Diaz, I do believe he has enough power to make things very interesting.

Boxeo Bets: 1.00 Units On Campbell {+400} & .50 Units On Campbell By Decision {+1236}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Diaz By Decision {+108}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .50 Units On Diaz By KO {+169}
D3: 1.00 Units On Diaz By Decision {+108}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night we are treated to the third fight between super bantamweight’s Rafael Marquez, (37-4, 33KOs) and Israel Vasquez, (42-4, 31KOs) live from the Home Depot Center, Carson, CA.

Vasquez opened as the favorite in the fight but public money has been knocking the Marquez money line lower. Currently, that underdog cash is still coming in on Marquez, bringing his number down to +140. Vasquez supporters can grab the line at -160.

The O/U on the bout is set at 7.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -105 and the over at +115. Vasquez by KO comes in at +105, while Vasquez by decision will reward you with +684. Marquez by KO hits the mark at +307, and Marquez by decision lands at +445 (Down from +787!) The odds the fight is declared a draw land at +2000.

When these two boxers met for the first time back in march of 2007, I clearly remember backing Marquez. I felt he was the much better technician of the two, and would be able to hurt Vasquez as he marched forward after him.

Another major factor in picking Marquez over Vasquez was the very tender skin of Vasquez. Now I never imagined the nose becoming the deciding factor in the fight, but Vasquez has serious issues with being cut and that element must be taken into consideration whenever he fights.

Luckily, I scored on that first fight when Marquez stopped him in the seventh round (Vasquez quit on the stool due to a broken nose.) I was so confident that Marquez would be able to do it in the rematch that I did not mind that he was a prohibitive favorite in the fight.

Boy, was I wrong! Marquez started out great, boxing around the ring and even stunning Vasquez, but Vasquez has a unique ability to recover from being hurt fairly quickly and was able to withstand the power-shots that Marquez was dropping on his head.

Although Vasquez was able to stand-up to the shots from Marquez, I still felt like I was in a great position to score another win. The reason I was not overly worried about Vasquez not going down from the hard shots from Marquez was because his face was starting to become a bloody mess.

As pointed out earlier, Vasquez gets cut very easily and the precision counter punching ability of Marquez is like a hot knife through butter…it slices Vasquez’s face apart.

As we all know, even with both eyes split and blood pouring down his face, the referee allowed Vasquez to continue fighting and this time he was able to fight through his adversity and stop Marquez in the sixth round.

Although the two fights have only lasted a total of thirteen rounds, I feel Marquez got the better of most of the rounds in both fights. There is no question Vasquez has the dynamite in his gloves to stop Marquez, but when Marquez is on his game he is far and away the much better boxer.

In the second fight I think he got away from boxing and countering when he found it very easy to land and hurt Vasquez. The machismo came out in him and he wanted to put Vasquez down for the count.

Obviously, this was a mistake because it allowed Vasquez the opportunity to implement his game plan of trading toe-to-toe with Marquez in the hopefulness of knocking him out. I believe the Vasquez strategy of playing rock’em, sock’em robots with Marquez is the only feasible way he will ever beat him.

With that said, it’s not like Marquez cannot extract his own pound of flesh in a toe-to-toe brawl. Although Marquez has proven in the past that he can hurt Vasquez with his power punches, there is no question he must keep the ferocious exchanges to a minimum. An all out slugfest in the trilogy would clearly favor Vasquez.

When all is said and done I like Marquez for all of the exact same reasons I picked him in the first two fights. He has far more options in the fight than Vasquez. Should he decide to box and counter, I feel he will have a huge edge over Vasquez inside the ring.

As I stated earlier, a major focal point for me is the thin skin of Vasquez. He was busted up in both fights with Marquez, and is returning to the ring just six months after suffering brutal lacerations over both eyes in their second fight. In the recent photos I have examined of Vasquez, his eyes do not look fully healed! I anticipate he will suffer some type of cut within the first half of the fight.

Boxeo Bets: 3.00 Units On Marquez By KO {+307} & 1.00 Units On Marquez By Decision {+787}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Marquez By KO {+307} & .50 Units On Marquez By Decision {+787}
Grass Hopper: 3.00 Units On Marquez (+145}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Vasquez By KO {+111}
D3: N/P

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight night we are treated to a featherweight title affair when Robert Guerrero, (21-1-1, 14KOs) defends his IBF strap against Jason Litzau, (23-1, 19KOs) live from the Tachi Palace Hotel & Casino, Lemoore, CA.

Guerrero opened as the heavy favorite in the fight and action on the money line has been stagnant. Currently, Litzau is listed as a +500 dog, while Guerrero supporters will have to fork over -700.

The O/U on the bout is set at 7.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -140 and the over at +120. Guerrero by KO comes in at -220, while Guerrero by decision will reward you with +250. Litzau by KO hits the mark at +700, and Litzau by decision lands at +900. The odds the fight is declared a draw land at +2000.

The first thing that should stand out about the above-posted odds is the number on the stoppage prop for Guerrero. Although Guerrero sports fourteen stoppages in twenty-one wins, he is not thought of as a real powerful one-punch knockout artist. I believe the current line is a direct reflection of the shaky chin of Litzau.

Even though Litzau has only lost once, he has already shown an unsteady beard in many of his previous fights. His aggressive, reckless style does lend a helping hand to his already fragile whiskers.

When your defense is less than stellar, facing off with such an accomplished tactician like Guerrero would appear to be a horrible oversight by team Litzau. However, I believe they took this fight because of the dynamite that Litzau possesses in each hand. If Litzau can somehow bum-rush Guerrero, getting to him before the skill and counterpunching abilities of the champion are revealed, he has a real opportunity to score the upset.

While pure knockout power is the biggest asset Litzau brings into his fight with Guerrero, its not the only element to the contender’s game. He will also have a two-inch height advantage over the southpaw champion and will possess the hand speed advantage inside the ring.

With that said, I think Guerrero is the far better skilled fighter and the defensive lapses that have plagued Litzau’s career will be too enormous for the power punching challenger to overcome. Against far lesser talent than Guerrero, Litzau has been hurt, dropped, and stopped. I see no reason why a fighter of Guerrero’s caliber cannot do the same.

Boxeo Bets: 1.35 Units On Under 7.5 Rounds {-135}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .20 Units On Litzau {+500}
D3: 1.35 Units On Under 7.5 Rounds {-135}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night we are treated to a special heavyweight unification match between heavy-handed knockout artist Wladimir Klitschko, (49-3, 44KOs) and undefeated Sultan Ibragimov, (22-0-1, 17KOs.) live from the Madison Square Garden, New York City, N.Y.

Klitschko opened as the clear favorite in the fight but public money has been knocking the Ibragimov line lower and lower. Currently, that underdog cash is still coming in on Ibragimov, bringing his number down to +310. Klitschko supporters can grab the line at -370.

The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -175 and the over at +155. Klitschko by KO comes in at -134, while Klitschko by decision will reward you with +363. Ibragimov by KO hits the mark at +468, and Ibragimov by decision lands at +1100.

When the bout was first announced many people expected an easy fight for Klitschko. However, as the public money shows, more and more people are giving the smaller Ibragimov a real chance at the upset.

The main reason people are dropping coin on Ibragimov is because of his quickness. While his speed is not in the league of a prime Chris Byrd, he does possess quick hands and quick feet. If Sultan has any chance of beating Klitschko he will need to utilize all of his speed advantages in the ring Saturday night.

Another aspect that makes this fight very intriguing is the constant stamina issues that have plagued Klitschko’s career. Regardless of how muscular and well-conditioned Klitschko appears to the naked eye, it seems whenever he gets into the middle rounds of a fight, he hits an invisible wall and his legs turn to jelly.

I am uncertain if Klitschko is sporting a child-sized pair of lungs, or if he is just so tense and tight that he expends a ton of energy during the early portion of the bout. Regardless of the reason, he has serious stamina issues that must always be taken into consideration when betting on a Wladimir Klitschko fight.

A lot of people point to the chin of Klitschko as his Achilles Heel, but I think it is a lack of stamina that leads to him flopping around the ring like a fish out of water. When you are dead tired any punch from a heavyweight fighter can easily send you flailing around the ring.

Although Sultan is not a super heavyweight, I think with his unimposing 219-pound frame, he has a perfect opportunity to upset the apple cart. Should the upset happen, a lot of credit must go to Ibragimov’s underrated trainer Jeff Mayweather (of the fighting Mayweathers.)

Mayweather is a masterful trainer, and knows what his fighter’s strengths and weakness’ are. There is zero chance that Mayweather allows Ibragimov to stand still and let Klitschko pound his fighter into the ground.

He will have trained “Iggy” to box and counter punch, while using as much of the ring as possible. While it’s true that “Iggy” does have seventeen stoppages in twenty-two wins, I think he is best served to box and let Klitschko’s fatigue curse take affect.

By doing just enough in the early rounds to stay in the fight on the scorecards (if we have competent judging) it will allow him to stay out of harms way and force Klitschko to battle his fatigue demons as the rounds where on.

Klitschko supporters are on the other end of the spectrum. They are expecting nothing less than Klitschko to just walk out of the corner and steamroll Ibragimov. Nevertheless, it’s not like Klitschko fights like a prime Mike Tyson. Klitschko is more apt to using his huge height and reach advantage, keeping his foes on the end of his punches. To do this against Ibragimov, he is going to be forced to walk “Iggy” down and try to get him to sit still long enough to unload a knockout shot.

With the styles of each fighter, I honestly think Ibragimov is in the most danger early in the fight. If he allows Klitschko to touch him in the early going, the pure strength of Klitschko may be just too much for the smaller man to take.

However, should Sultan survive the early going, forcing Wladimir to use a lot of extra energy chasing him around the ring, he will have put himself in the best possible position to score the upset win, or at the very least, still be standing after our over cashes!

Boxeo: 1.00 Units Will Go 9 Full Rounds {+170} (Vegas Odds) .50 Units On Ibragimov By Dec {+1300} 1.00 Units On Klitschko By Dec {+400}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Ibragimov {+500} (Vegas Odds)
Grass Hopper: 4.00 Units On Will Go 9 Full Rounds {+170} (Vegas Odds) & 1.50 Units On Ibragimov {+500} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.34 Units On Klitschko By KO {-134}
D3: 2.00 Units Will Go 9 Full Rounds {+170} (Vegas Odds)

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight we are treated to a special 166-pound catch weight rematch between heavy-handed knockout artist Kelly Pavlik, (32-0, 29KOs) and former middleweight champion Jermain Taylor, (27-1-1, 17KOs.) live from the MGM Casino in Las Vegas, NV.

The champion Pavlik opened as the slight favorite and public money has been tossing the line back and fourth. Currently a little more dough is coming in on Taylor bringing his number down to +150. Pavlik supporters can grab the line at -170.

The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -170 and the over at +150. Pavlik by KO comes in at +100, while the champion by decision will reward you with +574. Taylor by KO hits the mark at +388, and Taylor by decision lands at +404.

Although Pavlik crumpled Taylor to the canvas in the seventh round of their original fight, this is a rematch that fight fans are clearly looking forward to.

Even though Pavlik is the middleweight champion of the world, there is no questioning who has the most to lose in this rematch. Should Taylor pull off the upset at the special catch weight of 166 pounds, Pavlik will still be the middleweight champion of the world.

However, should Taylor lose for a second straight time to Pavlik, his future will undoubtedly be in limbo. Losing to Pavlik is nothing to be ashamed of, he is a courageous fighter with a huge punch, but Taylor has not looked good since challenging Bernard Hopkins for the undisputed middleweight championship nearly three years ago.

After the two very close decision wins against Hopkins, Taylor went on to back-to-back-to-back uninspiring performances against Winky Wright, Kassim Ouma, and Cory Spinks.

Many experts and fight fans believe he should have been 0-3 in that stretch of bouts instead of 2-0-1. In fact, if you throw in the two Bernard Hopkins bouts, you could make the case that Taylor could easily have been 0-5 from 2005-2007.

All five of those contests went the distance with Taylor being on the receiving end of very questionable decisions. Some folks even suggest that regardless of the way the fight unfolds inside the ring, when it goes to the scorecards, Taylor cannot seem to lose.

Although Pavlik ended matters in the seventh round of their fight, the bout only put more fuel on the fire regarding Taylor’s inability to lose a decision.

Heading into the seventh round, the three blind mice at ringside (they were truly blind on that night) somehow had Taylor winning by margins of 3,3, and 5 points! Granted, Taylor had a huge second round where he battered Pavlik, dropping him to the canvas, but Pavlik came right back in round three and made the bout extremely competitive until the seventh round when he took matters into his own hands.

Many experts I have spoken with had the bout even at the point of the stoppage or Pavlik up by a point. You can even make a case for Taylor being ahead by a point, but 3-5 points is outrageous and only leads more credence to the insinuation that the powers that be refuse to allow Taylor to lose by decision.

In my opinion, this is another perfect spot for Pavlik to take on Taylor. For some reason since the Hopkins fights Taylor has appeared to regress as a fighter. He is not as aggressive as he once was, and even his highly touted jab does not get used with consistency.

In his first bout with Pavlik, Taylor started fast and went right after him, dropping the “Ghost” in round two. However, Taylor let him off the hook and paid dearly for it when he was knocked out five rounds later.

This time around I do not expect Taylor to be as aggressive inside the ring. He knows without a doubt Pavlik can hurt him and stop him. Leading up to the Pavlik fight it had become commonplace for him to allow light-hitting boxers to easily bully him around the ring. I think he entered the first fight with Pavlik seeking to show the critics that he still had the fire burning inside him.

Since the loss to Pavlik, Taylor has fired legendary trainer Emmanuel Steward and replaced him with his former trainer Ozell Nelson. I have little doubt Nelson is going to try and get Taylor to implement a boxing/counter punching style in the hopes of either catching Pavlik as he comes forward, or winning on the cards. Should Taylor resort to the later technique, expect a lot of holding from the former champion.

In my opinion Taylor will resort to his punch and hold style (did Hopkins teach him that?) in an attempt to stop the aggression of Pavlik. Holding always causes fighters trouble, and I think Pavlik will have difficulty being held every time he attempts to lay some leather on JT.

It is that holding element that will hamper the ability of Pavlik to finish JT off. I still think it is a viable option to bet Pavlik inside the distance, but the holding will certainly limit his opportunities.

When these two fighters first met I was confident of a Pavlik victory, but erroneously thought Pavlik could also win on the cards due to his high punch output and powershots. After watching the first fight and witnessing such horrendous scoring, I am nowhere near as confident that Pavlik can pull off a win on the judge’s scorecards. That doesn’t mean he won’t “really” win, but when it comes to betting we need to be on the same side as the official winner.

Remember, Taylor has fought in Las Vegas before and received close decision wins. We have witnessed over and over again where he gets the benefit of the doubt in close bouts. This could very well end up being one of those cases if Pavlik cannot get him out of there before the final bell.

Boxeo Bets: 7.00 Units On Pavlik By KO {+100} & 2.00 Units On Taylor By Decision {+404}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Pavlik By KO {+100}
Grass Hopper: .50 Units On Pavlik Rd 4 {+2000} .50 Units On Pavlik Rd 5 {+2000} .50 Units On Pavlik Rd 6 {+2000} 1.00 Units On Pavlik Rd 7 {+1600} 1.00 Units On Pavlik Rd 8 {+1600}
Doody: 1.60 Units On Pavlik {-160}
D3: 1.00 Units On Pavlik By KO {+100}

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

On the undercard of Pavlik vs. Taylor, we are treated to a super flyweight title affair featuring Fernando Montiel, (35-2-1, 26KOs) squaring off against Martin Castillo, (33-2, 17KOs.) live from the MGM Casino in Las Vegas, NV.

The champion Montiel opened as the slight favorite and public money has been tossing the line back and fourth. Currently a little more dough is coming in on Castillo dropping his number to +110. Montiel supporters are playing the favorite line at –130.

The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +125 and the over at –150. Montiel by KO comes in at +300, while Montiel by decision will reward you with +170. Castillo by KO hits the mark at +600, and Castillo by decision lands at +225.

As you can see by the current line, these two fighters are expected to put on a very competitive bout.

Both boxers enter this match riding a three-fight win streak. Castillo is coming off a ten round unanimous decision win against Jonathan Perez, while Montiel is coming off a brutal slugfest against Luis Melendez.

After going through some major adversity against Melendez, Montiel was finally able to put it all together and stop his foe in the twelfth and final round of the fight.

I believe the styles of Castillo and Montiel should make for a very entertaining match. Both fighters have solid boxing ability, but also love to stand and trade powershots.

Montiel has the advantage in the power and speed department, but more importantly I believe cuts may become the deciding factor in this fight. Although both guys are top-notch fighters, they possess very tender skin and have a tendency to cut and/or swell.

Another benefit for under supporters is the fact the bout is currently scheduled for twelve rounds. With the aggressive style each fighter brings to the ring, twelve rounds is going to be very long time to go without any blood being shed between these two fighters.

Even though it may be difficult to predict exactly how the fight will unfold, I believe there is a great chance that at least one of these guys gets cut in the early to mid rounds. How early a cut or swelling begins to take place may be the difference between cashing on the under and losing the bet.

Since both fighters bring such a high level of skill into the bout, under supporters will need a cut or swelling as early as possible to help ensure a winner. If a cut or facial damage is inflicted early in the contest, it will totally alter the game plan each fighter brought into the ring. This could possible force one or both fighters to intensify their aggression and give under backers the best opportunity to cash.

Here’s hoping for a cut!

Boxeo Bets: 1.00 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds {+125}
Krakrabbit: .20 Units On Montiel By KO {+300}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.30 Units On Montiel {-130}
D3: .50 Units On Montiel By KO {+300}

Germany Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night German fight fans will be treated to a heavyweight attraction between former WBO champion Serguei Lyakhovich, (23-2, 14KOs) squaring off against former WBA champion Nikolay Valuev, (47-1, 34KOs.) Live from the Nuremberg Arena, Nuremberg, Bayern, Germany.

The 7’0 giant Nikolay Valuev opened as the clear favorite in the bout and currently rests at –300. Lyakhovich supporters can grab the underdog money at +250.

The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +120 and the over at -140. Valuev by KO comes in at +112, while Valuev by decision will reward you with +238. Lyakhovich by KO hits the mark at +1155, and Lyakhovich by decision lands at +352.

When this bout was first announced many people considered Lyakhovich a live dog in this fight. While Valuev has only been defeated once via a close majority decision, he looked less than stellar in his last bout against little known Jean François Bergeron.

Most fans were willing to give Lyakhovich a free pass for his dismal performance against Shannon Briggs. Rumors circulated that Lyakhovich entered his fight with Briggs with a serious rib injury that prevented him from doing the necessary roadwork before the fight. Apparently the rib injury was not fully healed come the night of the fight and drastically limited his ability to compete with the muscular Briggs.

Regardless if those rumors were true or not, Lyakhovich has done the few supporters he has left a disservice by coming in at a whopping 250 pounds! His current weight is ten pounds more then he has ever weighed-in before for any fight in his career.

Even when Lyakhovich was coming into his bouts at 235 pounds and below, he was never considered a prime representation of a fighter with great stamina. In fact, both his losses have come late in fights (9,12) and he has often looked like a dead man walking as the championship rounds approached.

I honestly believe his career high weight has a lot to do with his 15-month layoff. While I cannot say for certain he ballooned up in weight during that time, it is no secret that a majority of fighters put on a lot of weight in between fights. A year and three months is quite a bit of time in between fights for a fighter to pack on the pounds.

With his stamina issue already having been displayed in previous fights, I believe by coming in at 250 pounds, Serguei Lyakhovich has crushed any chances he had of beating Valuev.

For his part Valuev came in at 321 pounds, well within his average weight ranges. With the dreadful condition Lyakhovich is in, combined with the 321 pounds of man meat that will be all over him, I just cannot envision Lyakhovich lasting the distance with “The Russian Giant.”

Boxeo Bets: 2.00 Units On Valuev By KO {+112}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Valuev By KO {+112}
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Valuev By KO {+112}
Doody: .50 Units On Valuev By KO {+112}
D3: 2.00 Units On Valuev By KO {+112}

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight on the undercard of the Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. PPV bout, fight fans are treated to potential slugfest featuring veterans Marco Antonio Rubio, (40-4-1, 35KO’s) squaring off against Jose Luis Zertuche, (19-4-2, 14KO’s) live from the Domo De La Feria, Leon, Guanajuato, Mexico.

Rubio opened as a clear favorite in the bout, but bettors quickly jumped on Zertuche, dropping Rubio to a –175 favorite. Zertuche supporters can still snatch the plus money + 155.

The over/under for the Rubio vs. Zertuche bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over costing you -145, while the under comes in at +125. Rubio by KO comes in at +165, while Rubio by decision will net you +250. Zertuche by KO hits the mark at +330, and Zertuche by decision lands at +470. The odds the fight will be declared a draw land at +2250.

Rubio heads into this contest riding a six fight win streak, five by stoppage. In stark contrast, Zertuche heads into this bout losing his last two fights, one by brutal stoppage to Kelly Pavlik.

Although Zertuche is coming off back-to-back losses, he has recently faced the much better competition over Rubio. While Rubio was feasting on fighters that were 16-10, 15-15, Zertuche was fighting Carlos Bojorquez, Fernando Zuniga, and Kelly Pavlik.

I am not penalizing Zertuche for his knockout loss to Pavlik, because although he was viciously stopped, he showed a tremendous chin and heart in that battle. In fact, I believe he possesses the better chin in this match-up with Rubio.

Since neither guy is a technician, and both have massive punching power, the fighter with the better chin (Zertuche) should hold a decisive edge in the fight.

The biggest advantage Rubio has in this fight is his work rate. Zertuche often coasts within the round, allowing his opponents to outwork him until he lands a bomb that ends the fight. If this bout does indeed last the distance, I would expect Rubio to have the edge on the scorecards.

However, there is no question in my mind that at some point in the fight both fighters will look to exchange some serious leather. In a fight where both boxers are seeking to inflict heart-stopping damage, I am going to take the underdog and the fighter I believe has the overall better ability to absorb punishment.

Boxeo Bets: 1.00 Units On Zertuche By KO {+330}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Rubio By KO {+165}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .50 Units On Rubio By KO {+165}
D3: 1.00 Units On Rubio By KO {+165}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight on the HBO network, fight fans are treated to a main event bout featuring rising star Paul Williams, (33-0, 24KO’s) squaring off against the capable Carlos Quintana, (24-1, 19KO’s) live from the Pechanga Resort & Casino, Temecula, CA.

Williams opened as the clear favorite in the bout, with the opening lines ranging from -550 to –650. However, as soon as that line was posted, bettors jumped all over it, skyrocketing his price from -550 to the current –900 mark. Underdog supporters can benefit from the surge of cash on Williams and get +650 on Quintana.

The over/under for the Williams vs. Quintana bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over costing you –120, while the under comes in at +100. Williams by KO comes in at -114, while Williams by decision will net you +149. Quintana by KO hits the mark at +1114, and Quintana by decision lands at +1337.

As the public money suggests, this is Paul Williams’ fight to lose. Quintana is a decent fighter, but I think his style is completely inadequate to beat a fighter like Paul Williams.

With that said, Quintana does have skills. The problem for Quintana is he will not be able to utilize any of those skills against Williams.

Quintana can box and has solid footwork, but he is not a huge one-punch knockout guy. I would venture to guess that Quintana’s natural reaction is to box and counterpunch when he gets in the ring. However, he will have a very tough time trying to outbox the freakishly tall Williams from the outside. If Quintana wants to win, and cannot outbox Williams, his last option would be to try and put Williams on the seat of his pants.

The major problem I see with this strategy is the fact that Quintana is not a naturally aggressive guy with massive power. Sure, he has pop in his gloves, but if Antonio Margarito could not stop Paul Williams in their recent showdown, why would Quintana be expected to?

So, Quintana can try to stay on the outside and allow Williams to walk him down, throwing a million and one punches as he advances, or he can go straight ahead into the lions den and try to lure Williams into a slugfest.

If I were forced to pick between the two strategies I would vote for Quintana to get as close as possible to Williams and try to get inside his long reach. Margarito had his best success when he got right on the chest of Williams. However, if you don’t gauge the distance correctly against him you will end up eating leather all night long.

Williams is not a big puncher. He gets his stoppage wins from an accumulation of shots. It is not unheard for Williams to throw 100 punches per round, EVERY single round.

My initial feelings on this fight had Williams stopping Quintana somewhere in the middle rounds, but recently Williams has stated he is not looking for a stoppage, and I can envision Quintana stinking up the joint, just doing enough to survive and go the distance.

A lot (really everything) depends on how serious Williams is about getting Quintana out of there. If Williams is seeking to get some rounds in, this is a distance affair. Quintana’s style will allow Williams to get the necessary rounds in, without every really being in danger of losing the fight.

The inability to determine if Williams will allow Quintana to run around the ring and survive puts bettors in a severe quandary. With that said, I am going to take the plus money and play Williams by decision.

This is not by any means a particularly confident play, but there is a real possibility that Williams allows a dull, boring fight for the greater good of getting the rounds in that he requires.

Boxeo Bets: .50 Units On Williams By Decision {+149}
Krakrabbit: .20 Units On Williams By Decision {+149}
Grass Hopper: 1.00 Units On Quintana {+650} (Play changed from N/P to Quintana at 9:13 EST time)
Doody: 1.14 Units On Williams By KO {-114}
D3: .50 Units On Under 9.5 Rounds {+100}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight on the HBO network, fight fans are treated to a co-main event bout featuring rising prospect Andre Berto, (20-0, 17KO’s) squaring off against forty-six-fight veteran Michael Trabant, (43-2-1, 19KO’s) live from the Pechanga Resort & Casino, Temecula, CA.

Berto opened as a huge favorite in the bout coming in at –1150. Trabant supporters can snatch the plus money + 850. The over/under for the Berto vs. Trabant bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over netting you +165, while the under comes in at -190. Berto by KO comes in at -191, while Berto by decision will net you +277. Trabant by KO hits the mark at +2050, and Trabant by decision lands at +1250. The odds the fight will be declared a draw land at +3000.

Obviously, with such enormous odds on Berto the oddsmakers are expecting an easy victory for the young prospect. On paper it would appear Trabant’s best opportunity to pull the upset would be by decision. However, Berto has a very aggressive, crowd-pleasing style that would suggest Trabant’s best opportunity to win is slim at best.

Since the odds on Berto are so large, and I do not foresee an upset victory by Trabant, I now must look to the over/under and prop bets to see if there is an opportunity to cash in.

As indicated by his record, Berto has real knockout power, not only does he have dynamite in his gloves, the kid is wicked fast. If there is one area where Berto is lacking it may be in the chin department. Even though I am not sold on the building materials of Berto’s chin, I do not believe that Trabant possesses the style or power to expose any weakness Berto may have in the jaw department.

Speaking of the style of Trabant, I think his ability to get up and move on his toes may give bettors looking for a nice value bet the greatest opportunity to cash their tickets.

Although Berto can bang, and has superman speed, he has a tendency to follow fighters that attempt to box and stay away from him. I think this is the exact strategy that Trabant will try to implement tonight.

Even if Berto should start to land cleanly on Trabant, I think he will be more inclined to get on his bike in an attempt to survive, rather than putting it all on the line, risking a stoppage defeat.

In his two losses Trabant has never been stopped and I have a feeling he will look to make his third defeat another decision loss. Add in the fact this bout is only ten rounds, and you can make a compelling case for this fight going the distance.

I like Berto to control the action tonight and possibly even drop Trabant, but I think his opponent may have his track shoes on which will allow the Berto decision bettors to jump for joy at the sound of the final bell.

Boxeo Bets: .50 Units On Berto By Decision {+277}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .50 Units On Berto By Decision {+277}
D3: .50 Units On Berto By Decision {+277}

ESPN2 Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight on the ESPN2 network, fight fans are treated to a main event bout featuring power punching Darnell Wilson, (22-5-3, 19KO’s) squaring off against undefeated prospect BJ Flores, (20-0-1, 13KO’s) live from the Dover Downs Hotel & Casino, Dover, Delaware.

Wilson comes into this bout as –260 favorite. You can grab the dog money on Flores at +220. The over/under for the Wilson vs. Flores bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over netting you +105, while the under will cost you -125. Wilson by KO comes in at -170, while Wilson by decision will net you +819. Flores by KO hits the mark at +994, and Flores by decision lands at +325.

Although Flores is the undefeated fighter in this match-up, his competition to this point in his career has been less than stellar. Although Wilson brings five losses into this match, he has faced the much better competition and this is the main reason why he was installed as the odds on favorite to win the fight.

Even though Flores has not fought the best opponents around, he has displayed solid fighting skills that could possibly give Wilson trouble when they enter the ring tonight.

Flores knows how to move around the ring, but is not averse to pressing the action should his opponent attempt to box. He has fairly quick hands and possesses underrated punching power.

For his part, Wilson is a slugger. He is always looking for the stoppage and often time’s wings wide, looping shots at his foes. While his haymaker strategy does not always work (see the five losses) more often than not, his cannons find their mark and end the show in explosive fashion. I have no doubt he will be looking to employ that exact same strategy tonight when he faces Flores.

As I said earlier, Flores has better punching power than his record suggest. I have witnessed what his punching power did to former world champion Vassily Jirov in a sparring match, and while I may be in the minority, it would not surprise me to see Flores wobble Wilson if he catches him clean.

With that said, I certainly think Flores should use his superior footwork and try to keep Wilson at the very end of his punches. Wilson will follow his opponents around the ring, and we already spoke about his tendency to get wild at times. If Flores can stay just out of range of the Wilson artillery, he will have plenty of opportunities to land clean counter punches.

Now, before we get all excited about just how easily Flores can outbox Wilson, there are some questions surrounding the chin of Flores. Flores was knockdown by journeyman Chris Thomas, and although he got up and went on to win the fight by decision, the fact that such a fighter put him on the seat of his pants leads many to believe that Wilson will have zero trouble stopping him.

This fight basically boils down to if Flores will be able counterpunch his way out of danger. If BJ is somehow able to do the impossible and make Wilson miss and make him pay …expect the upset! However, this fight is scheduled for twelve long rounds and as long as Wilson is standing he will present a very real danger of knocking Flores out.

I think there are going to be rough patches for both fighters in this bout, but I just don’t see Flores being able to stay away from Wilson the entire night.

Boxeo: 1.70 Units On Wilson By KO {-170}
Krakrabbit: .20 Units Flores By Decision {+325}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.70 Units On Wilson By KO {-170}
D3: N/P

Telemundo Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight on the Telemundo network, fight fans are treated to a main event bout featuring old warhorse Cosme Rivera, (30-11-2, 21KO’s) squaring off against unknown Raul Pinzon, (15-1, 14KO’s) live from the Miccosukee Resort & Gaming, Miami, Florida.

Rivera comes into this bout at only –360 favorite. You can grab the dog money at +300 on Pinzon. The over/under for the Rivera vs. Pinzon bout is set at 8.5 rounds, with the over costing you –170, while the under comes in at +150. Rivera by KO comes in at +101, while Rivera by decision will net you +242. Pinzon by KO hits the mark at +527, and Pinzon by decision lands at +768.

Although Rivera comes into this bout losing four of his last six bouts, raising his loss column to eleven, he is head and shoulders above Pinzon in the competition department. A quick look at the once beaten Pinzon’s record and you will quickly find an embarrassing amount of tomato cans.

In fact, his best opponent on paper came into their bout sporting a 14-0-1 record and Pinzon lost to him by majority decision.

Since fourteen of his fifteen bouts have been fought in his native country of Columbia, it is very hard to determine what skills Pinzon may bring to the table. It is evident by his impressive knockout percentage that he can punch, but possessing the ability to stop a tomato can and a former world title challenger are two very different things.

Rivera proved in his last two fights against Andre Berto and Joel Julio that even when he is being outclassed, he will stick it out and try his best to turn the tide. His willingness to keep fighting regardless of how badly he is being beaten allowed him to score a sixth round knockdown against Berto and a twelfth round knockdown of Julio.

Although Rivera is far past the use by date, I still think he has enough grit and determination to get by a fighter with such limited International exposure and insufficient top-level competition.

Boxeo Bets: 1.00 Units On Rivera By KO {+101} & .20 Units On Pinzon By KO {+527}
Krakrabbit: .20 Units On Under 8.5 Rounds {+150}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .25 On Rivera By KO {+101}
D3: N/P

VERSUS Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight on the VERSUS network fight fans are treated to a main event bout featuring undefeated Vanes Martirosyan, (18-0, 12KO’s) squaring off against once beaten Michi Munoz, (20-1, 13KO’s) also on the card is veteran Ben Tackie, (29-8-1, 17KO’s), tackling Kendall Holt, (22-2, 12KO’s) live from the Hard Rock Casino in Las Vegas, NV.

Both Martirosyan and Holt are in ten round tune-up bouts. As such, both are huge favorites to win tonight, with Holt coming in at –1050 and Martirosyan an even larger favorite at –1750. You can grab the dog money at +600 on Tackie and +1000 on Munoz.

The over/under for the Martirosyan vs. Munoz bout is set at 7.5 rounds, with the over getting even money and the under coming in at –130. If you are thinking about playing the over/under in the Holt fight you will have to drop a whopping –500 for over 9.5 rounds, while under backers can grab +300.

When glancing at the odds the first thing that stood out was the huge line on the Holt vs. Tackie fight. I certainly can see Holt being the favorite over Tackie, but at –1050 I think the line is a bit far fetched.

While Tackie is just 3-3 in his last six fights, he still possess decent power and the uncanny ability to pressure forward after his opponents regardless of what is being fired at him.

Holt has only lost twice, but both times he was stopped! There are serious questions regarding his chin (he has been down many times) and if Tackie is able to find him I am certain Holt will be in a world of trouble.

The question is…can Tackie find the china and break it?

If you take a quick peek at all eight of Tackie’s losses they all have come by decision and are usually pretty lopsided in the scoring. That certainly does not mean that “Wonder” is beaten all over the ring, but he has a tendency to walk forward without throwing many shots. It seems he is always looking for the “perfect” opening before letting his hands go.

His inability to throw punches in bunches allows his opponents to box and counter, simply outworking him over the distance. I am positive this is exactly the same game plan that Holt will try to impose tonight.

For all of his limitations in the chin department, Holt does indeed posses skills. He has fast hands and quick footwork, a combination that has always given Tackie fits inside the ring.

Holt’s people have made this fight because Tackie is a stationary target and they feel Holt will be able to hit and not get hit as he dances around the ring round after round. Another advantage Holt has in this fight is the ten round distance.

Tackie is often a super slow starter, and with the fight being only ten rounds it gives Holt an improved opportunity to get ahead on the scorecards and shave off two potentially dangerous rounds going down the stretch.

I think Tackie’s only chance is to land something on the chin of Holt. If Tackie sits back waiting for the “perfect” opportunity before he punches, Holt will jab, move, and counter his way to a ten round decision.

As far as Vanes Martirosyan is concerned, dropping –1750 is simply out of the question. Munoz appears to be a solid, durable fighter (he went 12 with hard-punching Joey Gilbert) but if he cannot compete with a fighter of Gilbert’s caliber (scores of 120-109, 119-109 twice) I have my doubts that he should even be stepping into the ring with Martirosyan.

Since I will not be making a play on the dog, the last opportunity I have to get any action on this card is to look at the over/under in the bout.

I have little doubt that Martirosyan will outclass Munoz in their fight tonight, but I think Munoz may be durable enough to go some rounds and cash on the over 7.5 rounds. If Martirosyan does indeed get the stoppage, it will probably be from an accumulation of shots, hopefully after 7.5 rounds!

Boxeo Bets: .50 Units On Over 7.5 Rounds {+100}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: N/P
D3: N/P

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday night undefeated heavyweight prospects Alexander Povetkin, (14-0, 11KO’s) and Eddie Chambers, (30-0, 16KO’s) square off in an IBF eliminator all the way from Tempodrom, Kreuzberg, Berlin, Germany.

Povetkin opened as a pretty hefty favorite in the bout at –650, while Chambers supporters can grab the underdog money at +500. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -250 and the under at +210.

Although both fighters enter the ring undefeated, Chambers is quite the underdog in the match. I have a feeling the reason the oddsmakers opened Chambers at such a high number is due in large part to the location of the fight.

It is quite evident that with 16 stoppages in thirty wins, Chambers is not a very hard hitter. Should he pull the upset over Povetkin, he will likely do it by going the distance and winning a decision.

Anytime time you are picking a fighter to win strictly on the scorecards, the location must be included in your assessment of the fight. It is absolutely clear from the posted odds the oddsmakers who opened the line do not believe that Chambers can walk out of Germany the winner.

The reason I point to the foreign location as the major focal point for the opening line is simply because Chambers is a skilled fighter. If this line were set on skills alone there is zero chance Chambers is a +500 dog. Although Povetkin is undefeated, the style of Chambers will probably cause him severe trouble throughout the fight.

However, just because Chambers will likely give Povetkin fits throughout the fight, it does not necessarily indicate he is a solid bet in this bout. Chambers is a very accomplished defensive fighter; he covers up and does not get hit cleanly with many shots. Nevertheless, sometimes he focuses a large extent of his time on defense and forgets to let his hands go.

A perfect example of Chambers’ offensive lapses was his bout with Calvin Brock. In his fight with Brock, Chambers controlled the action whenever he let his hands go. On the other hand, he went long stretches in the fight where he would just cover up and let Brock punch.

Because Chambers is so comfortable in his defensive posture, he often does not feel any urgency to let his offense take over. His lack of aggression in the Brock fight almost cost him the win on the judge’s cards. Although I had Chambers easily beating Brock, the judges had the fight much closer, with two judge’s scoring the fight in favor of Chambers by scores of 115-113, and one blind ringside judge scoring the fight for Brock by the score of 115-113.

Horrible judging aside, the non-aggressive nature of Chambers is not going to serve him well against Povetkin. Now, I don’t expect Chambers to come out and stand toe-to-toe with Povetkin, but he must be an aggressive counter-puncher to have any shot of beating Povetkin. He simply cannot cover-up, allowing the “White Tiger” to march forward winging shots.

It will not matter if Povetkin lands anything cleanly on Chambers the entire fight. If Povetkin is the aggressor and throws more shots while Chambers hides behind his gloves, there is little chance of the American winning the fight.

I think Chambers will have spots in the fight where he allows Povetkin to fire off a few shots and comes right back at him with crisp counters, but I don’t think he will be consistent enough in his attack to win on the scorecards.

Boxeo: N/P
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Chambers {+500}
Doody: N/P
D3: N/P

HBO PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight we have living legend Roy Jones Jr., (51-4, 38KO’s) squaring off against Puerto Rican superstar Felix “Tito” Trinidad, (42-2, 35KO’s) at a special catch weight of 170 pounds, live from the Madison Square Garden in New York City.

When the line first dropped, Jones was installed as the clear betting favorite, but public money came flooding in on him and shot the line even higher to –380. With the huge influx of Jones money, Trinidad has been driven up to a +315 underdog. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -165 and the over at +145.

If you like Roy Jones by stoppage you will have to drop –110, while Jones by decision gets you +285. You can snag Tito by stoppage at +636, and the former world champion by decision will net you +1000. The odds the fight is declared a draw land at +2500.

As you can plainly see by the posted odds, Jones is expected to not only beat Felix “Tito” Trinidad, but he is the odds on favorite to do it by stoppage.

Although Roy Jones is clearly the oddsmakers and public’s choice to win this fight, one must not forget that Jones is far from the fighter of yesteryear. As his legs begin to show the signs of a long career, we find Roy Jones Jr. spending large portions of his fights with his back to the ring ropes.

Even though it’s true that a prime Jones had a tendency to lie against the ring ropes, inviting his opponents to hammer him to the head and body. In his younger days, his reflexes were so quick he would just toy with his foe until he spotted the tiniest of openings, before blistering off highlight reel combinations that left the crowd, as well as his opponents in awe.

That Roy Jones only exists in microscopic spots during the course of his fights. Not only does Jones use his legs sparingly, his still wicked fast hands are also kept under lock and key for most of the three-minute rounds.

Another danger the current version of Roy Jones Jr. faces is his slowed reflexes. Once upon a time RJJ practically went his entire career without ever being touched by a single significant punch.

In fact, if I recall correctly, he often boasted about not being able to relate to the adversity that other fighters often have to go through when they are cut, hurt, or knocked down during a fight.

Of course, that all changed when he faced off with Antonio Tarver for the first time way back in 2003. Notice I point out the first fight as the significant point in Jones’ career where he was forced to realize he was less than superhuman.

Despite the fact that Jones was able to come away with a very close majority decision win against Tarver, it was the first time in his whole career he was forced to dig down deep and fight through adversity.

In all of his prior bouts he toyed with his opponents. Even in his fight against Lou De Valle, when he suffered the first knockdown of his career, I never got the sense that Jones was in danger of losing the fight.

A lot of people point to the first Griffin fight as the first signs that Jones was beginning to decline, but even in that fight I never thought the scrap was slipping away from him. In each of those fights, you could always see that he clearly understood his surroundings.

He was notorious for allowing his rivals limited success before quickly snatching it back. I think he was well on his way to doing that very thing to Montel before the late hit and subsequent disqualification.

However, the Tarver bout was something Jones had never experienced as a pro. He was forced to battle fatigue, facial swelling, and being hit flush numerous times over the course of the entire fight.

Another very subtle change took place in that bout for Jones…he was forced to fight! I am not talking about boxing and counterpunching; I am talking about standing your ground and making a stand. As Jones has aged, his body has mandated that he sit down on his punches and take risks.

Taking risks was never part of the original game plan for Jones. In fact, throughout his career he was criticized for always fighting the “safe” opponents and fighting a safety first style.

At this stage of the game, Jones is physically unable to throw rapid-fire combination shots for a full three minutes of every single round. He no longer possesses the ability to use his legs and move out of harms way as his adversary advances.

Those two factors have contributed to him adapting a more “crowd friendly” style. By crowd friendly I mean he gets hit more! In essence, he has become more of a stationary target as he has matured.

I think the inability to fight how he has for the better part of his entire career, has forced Jones to either risk being knocked out cold, or go into a defensive shell.

A classic example of Jones going into a defensive shell was his ninth round knockout loss to Glenn Johnson. Not only did Jones get knocked out once again by a single punch (Jones was stopped in the second round in the Tarver rematch) he was losing the fight up until that point.

Johnson set the tone of the bout in the very first round of the fight. He jumped right on Jones, bullied him into the ring ropes and threw punches until the bell sounded to end the round.

For his part Jones could do nothing but cover up and potshot whenever he could muster up the energy and courage to let his hands go. Throughout the entire fight Jones’ punch output was non-existent, and when he did fire off a combination, Johnson would stand his ground and jump right back on him.

As the rounds wore on Jones went deeper and deeper into his defensive shell, until his reflexes betrayed him and he was caught with a jab-right hand shot that knocked him out cold for the second straight fight.

Even in his last fight, a unanimous decision win against unknown Anthony Hanshaw, Jones was hit more in that fight than any Jones fan cares to see. While he left the ring the winner that night, (in a much tougher fight than the scoring may indicate) he was sporting a nicely swollen left eye for his trouble. In his prime, Jones could easily go twelve rounds and walk out of the ring without a scratch on him.

The reason I went back to chronicle the decline in the skills and reflexes of Jones is simple. If Jones can now be hit often with flush power shots, it gives Tito his best opportunity to beat him.

There is no question Trinidad is not the superior skilled fighter. Jones will have the size, speed, and possibly the power advantage (nobody knows if Tito will have power at 170) over Trinidad.

Let me quickly touch base on the catch weight of 170 pounds. I feel the weight issue is a double-edged sword for Trinidad. If Jones truly did have a hard time making 170 pounds (Jones has not officially weighed in at 170 or less in 11 1/2 years) there is a chance that Jones tires in the fight from making weight and Trinidad can catch him with something big to end the show. On the other hand, does Trinidad have something big to deliver at 170?

Since Trinidad has never fought above 160 pounds, it makes it difficult to determine how much power loss (if any) he will suffer at 170. In his fight with Winky Wright, Tito officially weighed in at 160 pounds. However, come the night of the fight he was sitting at 170 pounds.

Trinidad performed atrocious in his bout with Wright, but Jones makes a boatload of defensive mistakes inside the ring that Winky Wright (who, by the way, is a southpaw) would never consider making. Make no mistake about it; for as long as the fight lasts, Jones will give Tito plenty of opportunities to land cleanly on his suspect chin.

The question becomes…can Felix “Tito” Trinidad capitalize on those opportunities and knockout Roy Jones Jr.?

There is no doubt the style match-up is clearly in favor of Jones. However, if there were ever a perfect situation where he might possibly beat Jones it’s right now. While it is certainly possible that Trinidad gets dominated in this fight, he would have even less of a chance of competing with Jones when both fighters were in their prime.

With that said, you simply cannot ignore the inactivity that Tito has brought upon himself. It is ludicrous what Trinidad has done to his illustrious career in the last five years!

He “retired” from 2002-2004, returning for two fights (he went 1-1 in that span) and then headed back into “retirement” from 2005 until Saturday night when he faces off with Jones.

From November of 2002 until Saturday night, he will have fought a grand total of three times and 24 rounds!

When you factor in his ridiculous inactivity and the unfamiliar weight class, its painfully obvious (you have no idea how painful it is for me to write this) that Tito’s options are limited to the proverbial “punchers chance.”

If Tito does not whack Jones on the chin, I expect him to eat lead right hands and potshots for as long as his heart and chin (or papa Trinidad) will allow him to take it. I am not fully convinced at this weight Tito can absorb a sustained “beating” from Jones for the entire fight.

Boxeo: 6.00 Units On Under 11.5 {-120} (Vegas Odds)
Krakrabbit: 2.40 Units On Under 11.5 {-120} (Vegas Odds)
Grass Hopper: 6.00 Units On Under 11.5 {-120} (Vegas Odds)
Doody: 1.00 Units On Trinidad {+315}
D3: 1.00 Units On Trinidad {+315}

HBO PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

On the undercard of the Roy Jones Jr. vs. Felix “Tito” Trinidad contest, we have the always-unpredictable Andrew Golota, (40-6-1, 33KO’s) squaring off against the once beaten Mike Mollo, (19-1, 12KO’s) in a twelve round heavyweight bout, live from Madison Square Garden in New York City.

When the lines first dropped, Mollo opened as the very slight favorite in the bout. As time has passed, more money has been coming in on Mollo, and he currently rests as a –220 favorite. With the influx of money being bet on Mollo, Golota has been driven up to a +180 underdog. The O/U on the bout is set at 7.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -220 and the over at +205.

As you can see by the betting line, the public is all over Mollo. The main reasons for Mollo being heavily bet by the public have to do with the fact that Golota is only two fights removed from a self-imposed two year layoff (the Mollo fight will be his third fight since the layoff) and Golota’s propensity to implode inside the ring whenever he faces any sort of adversity.

I won’t go into all of the details of the mishap’s of the talented Golota, I am positive if you follow boxing you have watched them first-hand over and over again. However, even with his erratic behavior, Golota is without a doubt a vastly skilled fighter inside the ring.

I have little doubt Golota is the superior fighter in the match-up. Nevertheless, as with any Golota fight, just because he is the better overall fighter in the ring, it certainly does not mean he will walk out of Madison Square Garden the victor on Saturday night.

One area that Mollo clearly has an advantage over his opponent is in the hand speed department. In his limited pro fight career, he has displayed great hand speed and punch out-put in the early going. I say early going because Mollo usually wins all of his fights in the first few rounds. Even his lone defeat to DaVarryl Williamson occurred in the fourth round of the fight.

While it’s no secret that Mollo’s game plan will be to jump right on Golota and try for the early stoppage, he still has his own deficiencies to worry about. Even though he is usually very aggressive in the ring, he throws his punches extremely wide and his defense is less than spectacular. He often pulls straight back, and jumps in and out with wild shots to the head and body of his opponents.

Golota clearly has the better skills and has faced the superior competition throughout his career. In fact, I doubt Mollo would have been favored over Golota had it not been for his two round blowout over former Mike Tyson conqueror, Kevin McBride.

You see, Mollo controlled his bout against McBride from start to finish, dropping him three times in the first two rounds of the fight. In stark contrast, McBride hurt Golota in the early going of their fight before finally succumbing to the four-time title challenger in the sixth round.

The biggest adversity for Golota comes in the first three rounds of the fight. Throughout his long career he has had trouble with fighters that shoot after him at the sound of the first bell. If the slow-as-molasses Kevin McBride could get to Golota, there is a good chance that Mollo will be able to do the same…only quicker.

To beat Mollo he will need to either time his wild swinging foe as he leaps in, or simply do whatever it takes to survive the first few rounds of the bout. If Golota is able to time Mollo as he jumps in, or even while he is pulling straight back, he will not only take a great deal of pressure off of himself to just get out of the first few rounds alive, I think he can stop him!

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Golota {+180}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Golota {+180}
Doody: 2.00 Units On Golota {+180}
D3: 1.00 Units On Over 7.5 {+205}

FNF Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight fight fans are treated to separate boxing telecasts featuring Edison Miranda, (29-2, 25KO’s) vs. David Banks, (15-3-1, 2KO’s) on ESPN2, and Sergio Mora, (19-0-1, 4KO’s) vs. Rito Ruvalcaba, (38-8, 28KO’s) on Telefutura.

Both Miranda and Mora are in ten round tune-up bouts. As such, both are huge favorites to win tonight, with Miranda coming in at –1600 and Mora an even larger favorite at some books, coming in at –1800. You can grab the dog money at +1000 on Banks and +1100 on Ruvalcaba.

The over/under in the Miranda bout is listed at 8.5 rounds, with the over coming in at +135, and the under at –155. Miranda By stoppage will cost you –194, while Miranda by decision comes in at +210. Banks backers can grab +1733 by stoppage, and +1540 by decision. The odds the fight is declared a draw stand at +5500.

One would venture to guess that if the Miranda o/u line is set at 8.5 rounds, the Mora fight should be set at an even higher total, but over/under bettors will only get a single round more in the Mora fight, with the total being set at 9.5 rounds. Over backers can actually grab plus money in this spot at +195, while under backers will have to play the favorite line at –235.

Mora by stoppage comes in at –217, (yes, that is the correct line and not a typo) while Mora by decision will net you +218. Ruvalcaba by stoppage comes in at +1279, while a decision win for Ruvalcaba currently stands at a whopping +3922.

Since these are obviously nothing more than tune-up affairs for both fighters, I will condense the two bouts into one short preview.

As we all know, Sergio Mora is a slick boxer with a style that could certainly cure insomnia. His hit and don’t be hit style, combined with zero punching power, makes for a very boring night of action whenever he is inside the ring.

However, as you can clearly tell by the unusual odds on Mora (especially by stoppage) Ruvalcaba is not a high quality opponent. In his eight (8) losses, he has been stopped six (6) times.

Granted, some of those losses were against much bigger hitters than Mora, but what unmistakably stood out for me was his fourth round stoppage loss to Brandon Mitchem back in 2004. Mitchem, like Mora, is a very light hitter, and it only took him four rounds to get Ruvalcaba out of there.

Nevertheless, the biggest reason supporting a Mora stoppage may be the fact Ruvalcaba has not been in action in almost 3 ½ years! In that last bout so long ago, he was stopped in the very first round of the fight.

Now, Ruvalcaba does bring some firepower to the game, but unless he can crack Mora early, I see no chance he beats the huge favorite tonight.

Over on ESPN2, we have Edison Miranda taking on David Banks. Although Banks has little punching power, he has a slick counterpunching style that some people feel could possibly give Miranda some trouble in the early stages of the fight.

This will be Miranda’s second fight since his destruction loss at the hands of Kelly Pavlik back in May of 2007. Since the loss to Pavlik, Miranda has claimed he could no longer make the 160-pound weight limit, and the strain to make the weight severely depleted his ability to fend off Pavlik.

Regardless if Miranda is being genuine about the weight issues or not, he looked less than stellar in his first bout at 168 against Henry Porras. Although Miranda was able to score the fifth round stoppage, he just did not display the “fire” inside the ring that appeared to have him on the fast track to boxing stardom.

Although Miranda looked mediocre in his last fight, he does come into this fight with a huge edge in experience against the much better opposition. Banks claim to fame is a split decision loss in the Contender series to Paul Smith, and a unanimous decision loss to former Contender star Peter Manfredo.

As indicated by his record, Banks cannot break an egg. His only chance to win this fight is to box and outwork Miranda over the course of the ten round distance.

The problem with Banks is he is not really as slick as he appears. The kid gets hit clean, and has a potentially night ending deficiency in his inability to block right hand shots. If he allows Miranda to land right hands with the accuracy that his past opponents have, this one will be over very quickly.

For me, this bout would be an easy under bet if it were not for the lackluster performance of Miranda in his last bout. If Miranda sits backs and tries to fight this fight completely on the outside, trading jab for jab, there is a real chance this fight could go some rounds.

However, I can see at some point and time Miranda getting to Banks with the right hand. Miranda has too much power on the right hand for Banks to take flush time and time again. If Miranda comes out with any intensity, he will get Banks out of there before the final bell.

The Fight Junkie team does not see any real value in any of the posted lines, so we will N/P (no play) tonight’s cards.

Boxeo: N/P
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: N/P
D3: N/P

HBO PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

So it’s finally here! “Pretty Boy” Floyd Mayweather Jr., (38-0, 24KO’s) vs. Ricky “The Hitman” Hatton, (43-0, 31KO’s.) Two undefeated fighters, in the prime of their careers, facing off for all the marbles, in the town that can make or break you in a single move…. Las Vegas!

Mayweather comes into the contest as a slight favorite in the bout at -200. Hatton gets the underdog cash at +170. The O/U for the fight has been set at 11.5 rounds, with the over at -250 and the under coming in at +210. Mayweather by KO comes in at +445, while Mayweather by decision will get you +105. Hatton by KO hits the mark at +423, and Hatton by decision lands at +432.

Although both fighters come into the contest unbeaten, their styles inside and outside the ring are like night and day.

Inside the ring Mayweather is a defensive wizard, rarely taking a flush shot to the chin. For his part, Hatton never met a punch he didn’t like. Outside the ring Mayweather is bold, flashy, and very cocky. Hatton on the other hand is perfectly comfortable having a drink at his local pub and shooting darts.

It is the differences inside the ring that everyone is debating for Saturday night. Mayweather backers point to Hatton’s “crude”, fast-forward, in your face style as the perfect compliment to the slicker, quicker, counter-punching style of Mayweather.

It’s quite amusing that Hatton followers point to those very same attributes from the “Manchester Mexican” as the reasons why Mayweather will not be able to fight at his usual pace, forced to dig down deep to keep the relentless Hatton off of him for the entire night. They suggest the brittle hands of Floyd cannot possible keep Hatton at bay for twelve grueling rounds.

Ironically the rumor mill has been buzzing with talk of Mayweather coming into this bout with one or both paws severely injured.

While there is little doubt about the qualities Mayweather possesses, the comparisons that have been tossed around between Arturo Gatti and Ricky Hatton are far fetched to say the least.

Mayweather supporters proclaim this bout is nothing more than Mayweather vs. Gatti 2. However, they fail to realize that Hatton is far quicker than Gatti, has displayed a better chin than Gatti, throws a million more punches a round than Gatti, and is in the prime of his career.

This is not to say that Hatton is the more skilled fighter in the ring. Floyd has natural talent that cannot be taught by any trainer in any gym in the world. His lightning quick reflexes and uncanny speed have carried him to a perfect record, pound-4-pound status, and numerous world titles.

So how can Hatton overcome the natural ability of Mayweather? I feel there are three potential fights that may possess the blueprint on how to atleast compete with Mayweather inside the ring.

The first fight that team Hatton should have dissected is Mayweather’s bout with Jesus Chavez way back in 2001. Although Mayweather eventually stopped Chavez when he retired in round nine, it was not smooth sailing for the multi-talented champion the entire way.

Chavez has an eerily similar style to the “Hitman.” In his bout with Mayweather he pressed forward relentlessly, forcing Mayweather to backpedal and potshot as he advanced. The main weapon of choice for Mayweather was the right hand, specifically right uppercuts as Chavez walked forward.

Chavez had greater success when he trapped Mayweather along the ropes. Although Mayweather can block a lot of his opponents fire power while laying on the ring ropes, he almost always goes completely defensive, allowing his opponent at the very least, to outwork him for as long as he stays there.

Mayweather played a sneaky game with Chavez, he would allow Chavez to punch like a madman and just as he began to tire, dropping his punch output (usually later in the round) Mayweather would start with his own offensive assault.

This is a huge key for Hatton, he must be in shape and ready to punch non-stop for as long as the fight lasts. If he tires, Mayweather will turn on the jets and began to land with pinpoint precision. However, if he is able to keep his aggression going, he can easily outwork Mayweather.

Larry Merchant commented on the Chavez bout. “I don’t think I have ever seen Mayweather have to work this hard before.”

The second fight to take a sneak peak at would be Mayweather’s first bout with Jose Luis Castillo. Castillo’s style is a bit more measured than Hatton’s, and he is much slower than the “Hitman”, but Castillo had great success when he pressed Mayweather behind his jab. Mayweather likes to take little steps back and as his opponent falls short with his punch, fire a counter shot.

Sometimes a nice jab in the face will force Mayweather to retreat further back or dip into his defense crouch without firing anything back at his foe. If Hatton can use his jab as he advances forward, it will not allow Floyd to just sit back and potshot him as he is walking straight in.

When Castillo got Mayweather on the ropes it was vintage Mayweather. He would get outworked, land some precise counter-shots, and then move back into the center of the ring.

Last, but certainly not least, is the Golden Boy himself…Oscar De La Hoya. I attribute most of Oscar’s success against Mayweather to two things, his forward movements, and his left jab. I honestly think the jab is the punch that Mayweather is most vulnerable to.

The reason he is vulnerable to the jab is because he uses his opponent’s mistakes against them. He likes them to throw and miss so he can land his counters. When Oscar came at Floyd behind the jab (just as Castillo did) Floyd instinctively went more defensive and did not counter as much compared to when Oscar came at him with a punch other than the jab.

The jab allowed Oscar to push Floyd back and not worry as much about the counters. Once he had him against the ropes, the same tune played out that always plays out when Mayweather hits the ropes.

However, in the second half of the bout Oscar slowed his forward aggression and stopped coming forward behind his jab. This allowed Floyd to do what he does best, and nail Oscar as he either stood right in front of him, or walked forward in a straight line.

The blueprints to beat Mayweather are out there, but make no mistake about it; Hatton will have to go through hell and implement his plan to perfection to beat “Pretty Boy.”

I have a feeling that if this bout goes to the cards, you are going to have a wide variety of opinions on who “really” won the fight. It is so hard to determine if the three blind mice (oops, I mean judge’s) will favor the accurate counter-punching shots from Mayweather, or the swarming less precise activity from Hatton.

I am going to slightly lean with the underdog here and predict if Chavez, Castillo, and De La Hoya all had success against Mayweather, Hatton will too. The real question is, will he have enough success to be the first man to officially beat Mayweather? I guess we will find out soon enough!

Boxeo: 5.00 Units On Hatton {+250} (Vegas Odds)
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Hatton {+250} (Vegas Odds)
Grass Hopper: 19.00 Units On Mayweather {-190} & 7.50 Units On Under 12 Full {+250} {All Vegas Odds}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Mayweather By KO {+445}
D3: 2.00 Units On Hatton {+250} (Vegas Odds)

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight we are treated to a world championship bout in the 154-pound weight class between Vernon Forrest, (39-2, 28KOs) and Michele Piccirillo, (48-3, 30KOs.)

The champion Forrest has been installed as the huge betting favorite, costing you –1050 for every hundred bucks you wish to win. Piccirillo will get you +750 for your hard earned hundred. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +235 and the over at -275. Forrest by KO comes in at +275, while the champion by decision will cost you -185. Piccirillo by KO hits the mark at +1355, and Piccirillo by decision lands at +1440.

It’s quite clear from the posted odds that Piccirillo is being given little chance to upset the reigning champion.

There are a few good reasons why Piccirillo will have a tough task beating Vernon Forrest. Although Piccirillo sports thirty stoppages in forty-eight wins, he is far from a big puncher. His biggest asset is his above-average boxing ability. However, he is facing an uphill battle if he expects to outbox Forrest over the twelve round distance.

At one point and time Forrest was considered one of the elite fighters in the sport, but back to back losses to wild man Ricardo Mayorga, and a plethora of shoulder injuries, tainted his status as one of the best fighters in the sport.

Forrest recently had surgery to correct those nagging injuries and looked the best he has in years defeating Carlos Baldomir five months ago.

Obviously this fight is more about how Forrest will win, not if he will win. For Forrest to stop Piccirillo would be a real feather in his cap. Although Piccirillo has hit the canvas numerous times, he has never been stopped.

Forrest was a pound overweight at the weigh-in and after a brief trip to the sauna easily made the 154-pound weight limit. Piccirillo came in two pounds under the limit and I am sure he brought his favorite track shoes with him.

Forrest is a great boxer/counter puncher, but I think he will have a difficult time chasing Piccirillo around the ring all night in search of the stoppage. There is little doubt in my mind that Forrest will win the fight tonight, but he will need to land his potent right hand often to keep Piccirillo on the canvas.

Should Forrest hurt Piccirillo you can expect the thirty seven-year old challenger to put those track shoes to good use.

There is a slim chance that Piccirillo’s old legs wear down before the final bell, but my guess is the challenger runs and holds his way to a wide decision loss.

Boxeo Bets: 1.85 Units On Forrest By Decision {-185}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .50 Units On Forrest By KO {+275}
D3: .50 Units On Under 11.5 {+235}

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight we are treated to a twelve round affair at a special catch weight of 166-pounds between former champions Fernando Vargas, (26-4, 22KOs) and Ricardo Mayorga, (28-6-1, 23KOs.)

Vargas opened as the ever so slight favorite and public money has been tossing the line back and fourth. Currently Vargas’ number is up to –190. Mayorga supporters can grab the underdog money at +165. The O/U on the bout is set at 9.5 rounds, with the under coming in at -160 and the over at +140. Vargas by KO comes in at +125, while the Vargas by decision will reward you with +363. Mayorga by KO hits the mark at +243, and Mayorga by decision lands at +980.

The fight between Vargas and Mayorga was originally slated to take place two months ago but Vargas had to postpone the original fight date due to medical issues. It is no secret that Vargas has struggled with his weight, and many in the boxing community speculated the postponement was an attempt by the Vargas camp to gain more time to get their fighter in shape.

It is per the request of Fernando Vargas that this fight is being fought at 166-pounds. The demand by Vargas for the fight to take place 12 pounds north of where he last fought just adds more fuel to the theory that Vargas no longer has the discipline required to compete and a lower weight.

Whatever the real reason for the two-month delay, Vargas has made it crystal clear that after this bout he will hang up the gloves for good. Although he enters the ring at only 29 years of age, Vargas is much older in terms of wear and tear. He has been in numerous toe-to-toe slugfests, and it appears little-by-little those wars have taken their toll on his body.

In fact, Vargas’ skills have deteriorated very rapidly ever since he was savagely beaten over twelve rounds by Felix “Tito” Trinidad. That beating was the beginning of the downward spiral that Vargas finds himself in today.

Granted, Vargas has only lost to elite level guys (Mosley, De La Hoya, Trinidad) but if you compare his skill level from the fight with Trinidad to what he possesses now, it is like looking at a totally different fighter. There is little doubt in my mind that “ El Feroz” is a mentally and physically shot fighter!

With that said, Vargas has forced Mayorga to move up in weight 12-pounds and that is without a doubt a huge advantage for Vargas. Mayorga did most of his quality work at 147, and has had limited success moving up to the 154 pound division. Now he is expected to move up 12 more pounds and face off with Vargas, who could end up weighing 180 pounds come the night of the fight.

The one silver lining for Mayorga was his claims that he would weigh-in at 156 pounds. However, when it was time to put down the turkey leg and hit the scales, Mayorga came in at 164 pounds, the exact same weight of Vargas. The fact that Mayorga comes into this bout weighing the exact same as Vargas has a bit of irony to it since Mayorga has routinely called Vargas “fatty” during the promotion of the fight.

A lot of people may think it was wise for Mayorga to bulk-up and weigh as close as possible to the limit, but I see his weight as a disadvantage for him. I just cannot see how Mayorga can possibly weigh-in at 164 pounds and be expected to have the stamina to throw punches for more than a just few rounds. By coming in lighter, he would have enough energy to throw his wild, unorthodox shots at Vargas should the rounds wear on.

Now, will the rounds wear on? As Vargas has declined, he has basically lost all of his hand and foot speed. He was never on the level of a Roy Jones Jr. or Floyd Mayweather Jr., but this version of Vargas looks like he is punching underwater with his feet in quick sand. Even though he is fighting outside his natural weight class, Mayorga will be the faster fighter in the ring.

Although both fighters love to bang, even at this stage of the game, Vargas is the better technician of the two. The lack of speed from Vargas is what really gives hope to Mayorga backers. If this was the Vargas of old, and not just an old Vargas, he could use just enough movement to walk Mayorga into counter shots all night long.

With Mayorga’s wild style, there is still a great possibility that Vargas will land cleanly as Mayorga plows forward. The difference now is instead of landing his shots and then getting out of harms way, Vargas will now find himself smack-dab in the middle of the firefight.

That is not to say Vargas cannot win in a slugfest. Mayorga has taken his own fair share of beatings, and his power has drastically reduced from 147-154. It would appear that his punching power at 164 pounds would likely be reduced even more. However, if asked to compare which fighter has more left in the tank, I would still lean towards Mayorga.

The biggest hurdle for Mayorga to overcome is the weight. There is a reason Vargas handpicked Mayorga and the weight they will fight at. Vargas is banking on his size and Mayorga’s lack of defense to allow him to finish his career on a high note.

I don’t like that Mayorga came in at 164, I think this limits his ability to go all-out for the entire fight. Vargas is also going to be carrying a ton of weight in the bout, and if these two fighters start huffin’ and puffin’ early in the contest, we could be in for a long hugfest.

There are a ton of questions surrounding both guys. I think Mayorga has done a terrible disservice to himself coming in so heavy. This is a tough one to call! I am going to lean towards Mayorga only because I believe that Vargas is a totally shot fighter.

Although there are a lot of things going against Mayorga in this fight, he will without question take it to Vargas for as long as he can. We shall see if he has enough in the gas tank to get Vargas out of there before he starts to tire.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Mayorga By KO {+243}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Over 9.5 {+140}
Grass Hopper: 5.00 Units On Under 9.5 {-145} & 1.00 Units On Mayorga By KO {+243}
Doody: 2.00 Units On Mayorga By KO {+243}
D3: 1.00 Units On Mayorga By KO {+243}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight we are treated to a world championship bout in the 130-pound weight class between champion Joan Guzman, (27-0, 17KOs) and rugged challenger Humberto Soto, (43-5-2, 27KOs.)

The champion opened as the ever so slight favorite and public money has been tossing the line back and fourth. Currently a little more dough is coming in on Guzman, brining his number up to –160. Soto supporters can grab the underdog money at +140. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +155 and the over at -175. Guzman by KO comes in at +512, while the champion by decision will reward you with +120. Soto by KO hits the mark at +371, and Soto by decision lands at +384.

As you can see by the betting line, these two fighters each pose serious danger to one another. Guzman is the slick boxer with the superhuman speed, and Soto is the aggressive, in your face fighter that will hit you anywhere and everywhere for as long as he can.

Both fighters bring quality skills to this affair and this is the main reason why many boxing experts are split on who gets the win tonight.

It would appear Guzman’s best chance of beating Soto would be to stick to his hit and not get hit style. He is the much quicker fighter in the bout, and also possesses a great deal of quality footwork. He has always had a natural talent for landing rapid-fire combinations on his opponents and then sneaking away, but his recent acquisition of Floyd Mayweather Sr. can only improve his overall effectiveness with this type of style.

For Soto he can only win this fight one way…going forward! Soto must use his physical size advantage and harder punches to wear Guzman down enough where he can start to land cleanly on him. Although Soto is the bigger fighter, I do not think he has any chance of trying to lure Guzman in, an attempt to counter him. Guzman is simply too fast for Soto to do anything but march forward and bang away.

Even though Soto knows what to do, it is very hard to hit Guzman cleanly with even a single shot. He has a natural ability to move just enough that his opponents punches sail over his head or fly past his face. Soto must be focused and prepared to throw in combinations if he wishes to land enough punches to wear Guzman down.

Heading into this fight, one of the biggest assets for Soto may have nothing to do with his overall skills. Guzman is coming off an eleven-month layoff and with his type of boxing style inactivity can be a serious challenge to overcome. If there is a silver lining for Guzman, it is his relationship with Mayweather Sr. If he has been in the gym working with Mayweather, the layoff should not greatly affect him.

Both of these fighters know how to win and have competed at very high levels. However, a big disadvantage for Soto is sometimes he likes to wait for that perfect shot before letting his hands go. As we recently observed with Rocky Juarez and Juan Manuel Marquez, if you wait for that perfect shot all fight long, the next thing you know the bell has sounded to end the fight and you have lost on the scorecards. If Soto is to give Guzman his first professional loss, he must fight with effective aggression and not just follow Guzman around the ring.

This fight is certainly a contrast in styles. The winner will be the fighter that was able to impose their style and dictate the pace. Guzman can do this by firing off combinations and then moving away. Soto will need to be set to punch and will have to reset every time Guzman moves.

For Soto to impose his will, he must force Guzman into exchanges and try to trap him along the ropes where he can fire his powerful shots on a more stationary target.

I think it is going to be a really tough task for Soto to lure Guzman into his type of fight. I believe there may be occasions where Guzman stands and trades, but I don’t think Mayweather Sr. will allow him to do this on a regular basis. Even though the occasions may be far and few between, whenever he does stand and trade leather, Soto must take advantage of the opportunity to hit Guzman flush.

I can easily see Guzman frustrating Soto by hitting and not getting hit. His quick hands and equally quick feet should allow him to stay out of harms way for the most part. His biggest dangers are letting Soto get too close and trying to bang with the naturally bigger man.

Guzman is a fighter, and he likes to fight. It is that reason, and that reason alone that I feel compelled to at least cover my Guzman bet with a Soto KO prop just in case the Dominican gets a little to brave for his own good and gets caught with something nasty.

Boxeo: 4.20 Units On Guzman By Dec {+120} & 1.50 Units On Soto By KO {+371}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Soto By Dec {+384}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Soto {+140}
Doody: 3.20 Units On Guzman {-160}
D3: 1.00 Units On Soto {+140}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night Showtime main event features Olympic gold medallist Andre Ward, (13-0, 8KO’s) facing off against undefeated Roger Cantrell, (12-0, 8KO’s) live from Beausejour Cricket Ground, Gros Islet, Gros-Islet, Saint Lucia.

Ward comes into the contest as the overwhelming favorite in the bout at -2300. Cantrell gets the underdog cash at +1100. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over at +110 and the under coming in at -150. As you can see from the posted odds, Ward is expected to dispatch Cantrell with ease.

At this point in his young career Andre Ward has become accustom to being an overwhelming favorite heading into each of his bouts. The young undefeated Olympian possesses lightning quick hand speed and a boxing presence inside the ring that is very similar to former pound-4-pound king Roy Jones Jr.

What Ward does not possess is a solid set of whiskers. In only his second fight as a pro, Ward was seriously wobbled by a left hook from little known Kenny Kost, and in his seventh pro fight, unknown Darnell Boone dropped him on the seat of his pants. Already in his young career Ward has been wobbled and tasted the canvas.

It’s not so much the fact of Ward going down, or being hurt on a few occasions that trouble me the most, it is the quality of opposition, as well as the way he reacted to those shots that cause concern.

Ward is obviously being moved slowly in his pro career, but to face such adversity at this stage of his profession does not say great things about his ability to take a flush shot to the chin. Granted, Ward has overcome said adversity, but it appears it is only a matter of time before somebody connects cleanly and Ward doesn’t get up!

So the question becomes... can Cantrell become the first fighter to put Ward down and keep him there?

Cantrell is also undefeated in his trip to the pro ranks, but has faced limited opposition to date. Although Cantrell is far from a well-known boxer, he also had a very accomplished amateur boxing career, going 57-4 and winning two golden gloves championships.

He stands just a bit taller than Ward, and possesses solid technical skills that could cause the Olympic gold medallist problems. His most powerful offensive weapon appears to be his left hook, a punch that Ward has been susceptible to throughout his pro career.

I think it will only take one sweet shot to end the reign of Ward. Now, I am not certain if Cantrell will be able to deliver that shot tonight or not, but at +1100 it is worth a few bones to take the talented amateur fighter and see if he can land something to the chin of Ward that may change the entire course of the fight.

Obviously, even if I liked Ward in the fight there is zero chance that I would lay –2300. For all of you Ward backers, it is best to take a look at the over/under in the contest and see if there is an opportunity to make any cash there.

Boxeo: 1.00 Units On Cantrell {+1100}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .50 Units On Cantrell {+1100}
D3: .25 Units On Cantrell {+1100}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night Showtime undercard action features undefeated heavyweight Teke Oruh, (14-0-1, 6KO’s) facing off against knockout artist Joey Abell, (17-1, 17KO’s) live from Beausejour Cricket Ground, Gros Islet, Gros-Islet, Saint Lucia.

Abell comes into the contest as the very slight favorite in the bout at -130. Oruh gets the underdog cash at +110. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over at +150 and the under coming in at -170. Abell by KO comes in at +101, while Abell by decision will get you +686. Oruh by KO hits the mark at +298, and Oruh by decision lands at +411.

Abell gets the call for this fight on very short notice. Oruh was originally slated to face off with heavyweight prospect Chris Arreola, but Arreola pulled out after learning of the death of a close friend.

Abell sports a very impressive record, scoring seventeen wins all by knockout. His lone defeated was at the hands of Arron Lyons, in a bout where many felt the referee stopped the contest much to early. Abell never hit the deck, but came away with the controversial loss in the very first round of the contest.

Tonight I do not feel Abell will have to worry much about the power that Oruh brings to the table. Oruh only has six stoppages in his fourteen wins, and clearly will be outgunned when he steps in the ring against Abell.

Although Abell is widely viewed as just another Midwest fighter with a padded record, his technique is not half bad. He throws in combinations and of course brings massive power to the game. It appears he has greatly improved his overall boxing skills since the loss to Lyons.

If the lack of punching power was not a big enough disadvantage for Oruh, he also must somehow protect his fragile chin from the powerful punches of Abell. Even though it is early in his career, Oruh has already been put on the canvas and hurt on many different occasions.

One must not forget that Oruh was originally scheduled to face rising prospect Chris Arreola in a match that I am positive was set-up for Arreola to score a highlight reel stoppage.

I think Abell has an equal opportunity to score that highlight reel stoppage that Arreola was set-up to achieve, and I believe he will take full advantage of that chance tonight.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Abell By KO {+101}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 On Abell By KO {+101}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 1.30 Units Abell {-130}
D3: .50 On Abell By KO {+101}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night HBO PPV main event features former world champion and pound for pound king “Sugar” Shane Mosley, (44-4, 37KO’s) facing off against undefeated Miguel Cotto, (30-0, 25KO’s) live from Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York.

Cotto comes into the contest as the very slight favorite in the bout at -165. Mosley gets the underdog cash at +145. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over at a whopping -335 and the under coming in at +275. Cotto by KO comes in at +324, while Cotto by decision will get you +160. Mosley by KO hits the mark at +567, and Mosley by decision lands at +267. As you can see from the posted odds, this bout is expected to go deep into the fight.

If you take a look at the above odds you will see just how closely the oddsmaker’s have set this line. Although Cotto is undefeated at 30-0, 25KO’s, he is only a very slight favorite in the fight. While you can easily make a case for Cotto being the favorite, I actually think the line could have been set as a pick’em.

Declaring this fight an even money affair might appear strange at first glance. Cotto is undefeated, and only five boxers have managed to hear the final bell against him. His recent nine victims include Randall Bailey, DeMarcus Corley, Mohamad Abdulaev, Ricardo Torres, Gianluca Branco, Paul Malignaggi, Carlos Quintana, Oktay Urkal, and Zab Judah.

Paul Malignaggi was the only one to hear the final bell ring to end the fight, and he suffered an incredible beating in going the twelve round distance.

Out of all of the nine recent bouts that Cotto has been involved in three really stand out. The first is the bout with Corley. Cotto struggled with Corley, he was seriously hurt in that fight, and for a brief second it appeared Corley was going to stop him. Cotto was able to withstand the attack from “Chop Chop” and went on to score a controversial stoppage in Puerto Rico.

He went life and death with Ricardo Torres, and was officially put on his bottom in that fight. He would once again gather himself and come back to score a highlight reel stoppage of the Columbian.

He just recently stopped Zab Judah in the eleventh round of their contest, but was rocked on more then a few occasions, and had to walk through some heavy leather before finally taking “Super” Judah out.

Cotto has shown remarkable determination and courage in all of his bouts. Even if he is hurt, dropped, or cut he will continue to press after his opponent, looking to put an end to the fight. It is that determination that breaks down most fighters as the rounds wear on.

Now Cotto will test his resolve against “Sugar” Shane Mosley Saturday night at the MSG in New York.

While Cotto was burning up the ring with his action packed thrillers, Mosley was coming off two upset losses at the hands of his arch-rival Vernon Forrest, a no-contest against Raul Marquez, a disputed victory over Oscar De La Hoya, and then back to back losses to Ronald “Winky” Wright.

From 2002-2004 Shane Mosley went 1-4 with 1 no-contest. Not exactly a great way to launch your name back into the limelight. Mosley was able to rebound from those disastrous two years, beating David Estrada, Jose Luis Cruz, Fernando Vargas, and most recently Luis Collazo.

Up until his first victory over Vargas, Mosley was considered damaged goods. He was fighting at a weight that did not suit his style, and he was looking average against mediocre competition. After he stopped Vargas in the tenth round due to a Rahman like swelling over Vargas’ eye, people sat up and started to take a closer look at “Sugar.”

However, since the bout was competitive on the scorecards leading up to the stoppage, Vargas and fight fans alike wanted to see a rematch between the two. Mosley quickly agreed and the two combatants raged war just five months later.

This time around it was all Shane Mosley. He battered Vargas for five rounds before starching the former champion with a single left hook in round number six.

After his destruction of Vargas there was talk of a Mayweather showdown, but for whatever reason (each side implies the other is ducking) the fight never came off. Instead of fighting Mayweather, Mosley wisely made the move back down to 147 and squared off with the tough Luis Collazo.

Collazo made a name for himself in a loss to Ricky Hatton. It was Hatton’s first attempt at the 147-pound weight class and Collazo gave him everything he could handle and more in their twelve round affair.

Although Collazo did not come away with the win, he was able to showcase his world-class speed and boxing skills to millions of people around the world. I guess Shane Mosley was one of those people watching because Collazo quickly got the call for Mosley’s return to welterweight.

Heading into his bout with Collazo many experts considered the fight to be a real test for the ageing former world champion. Mosley proved the critics wrong, putting on a masterful performance, dominating Collazo from start to finish.

Can Mosley turn back the clock and prove the skeptics wrong one more time?

Mosley can box or stand toe-to-toe. In this fight with Cotto he has more options should the going get tough. If he is unable to handle himself on the inside, he can easily switch it up and counter-punch from the outside, capitalizing on his 7-inch reach advantage. Not only can Mosley change where he chooses to fight Cotto, he also possesses the much quicker hands.

However, speed is not enough to beat Miguel Cotto. He has already proven in the past that he can break down fighters with speed advantages, but I am not so sure he has ever faced off with a fighter as well rounded as Mosley.

Even though Cotto has some boxing ability, we all know that he is going to press forward and look to bang the body of Mosley. Cotto is a bit of a slow starter, and has been buzzed early in his bouts. His body punching and effective aggression begin to pay dividends as the fight wears on.

It appears that Cotto supporters are pointing to two main areas where they feel their man has a distinct advantage. The first area where most people feel Cotto is head and shoulders above Mosley is in the body shop.

While Cotto is certainly highly regarded for his bodywork, Mosley is no slouch in the body department himself. In fact, in his lighter days he was a vicious body puncher. Since he has bounced around in different weight classes he has not been as dedicated to the body as he was when he was younger, but I would not be surprised to see Mosley hurt Cotto to the midsection at any point in their fight.

The other area that most experts predict Cotto will control is the power department. If we were talking pure one-punch knockout power, than I would have to agree and give a slight edge to Miguel Cotto. Now, I understand I will probably be in the minority here, but I do not think Miguel Cotto is physically stronger than Shane Mosley!

Shane is a very rugged and powerful fighter. I don’t believe it will be as easy as people think for Cotto to get inside and just rough Mosley up without taking a huge toll on his own body. While I don’t think the greatest strategy for Mosley to incorporate would be to stand and trade with Cotto, if he chooses his spots wisely, he can get some serious work done on the inside and then move back outside to catch Cotto as he marches forward.

Right about now every Cotto supporter is probably shouting at the top of their lungs “Vernon Forrest.” While it is true Vernon dominated Shane in there first meeting (the second fight was much closer) his style of boxing is nowhere near Miguel Cotto’s. To compare Vernon Forrest to Miguel Cotto is like comparing apples to oranges.

The same can be said for Shane’s two losses to Winky Wright, a totally different type of style than what Miguel brings to the ring.

Although Cotto is an entirely different beast than Forrest or Wright, I can safely say that Miguel Cotto is a step up in class from the recent fighters Shane has faced. Even his win over Fernando Vargas occurred at a time when most people felt Vargas should have already retired.

If it is safe to say Mosley is stepping it up a bit by facing Cotto, then I feel it is fair to label Mosley as Miguel Cotto’s best opposition so far in his career. While Cotto has always succeeded when taking the next step in his career, the overall talent of Mosley, combined with the huge edge in experience, may finally be too much for him to overcome.

Remember… there was a point and time in Shane Mosley’s career when he was considered one of the best, if not the best fighter in the world. He was lightning quick, possessed a wicked body attack, and punched with tremendous force. I have a feeling after Saturday night we will once again hear his name mentioned as one of the best fighters in the world, and talk of the Mayweather/Hatton winner will be on everyone’s lips.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Mosley By KO {+567} & 3.00 Units On Mosley By Dec {+312}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Mosley By Dec {+312} & 1.00 Units On Cotto By KO {+357}
Grass Hopper: 5.00 Units On Mosley {+145} & 2.40 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full (Vegas Odds) {+170}
Doody: 1.00 Units On Mosley By KO {+567} & 1.50 Units On Mosley By Dec {+312}
D3: .50 Units On Mosley By Dec {+312} & .50 Units On Cotto By KO {+357}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday night Showtime main event features the battle tested Juan Manuel Marquez, (47-3-1, 35KO’s) facing off against the real life “Rocky”, Rocky Juarez, (27-3, 19KO’s) live from the Desert Diamond Casino, Tucson, AZ.

Marquez comes into the contest as the clear favorite in the bout at -375. Juarez gets the underdog cash at +320. The O/U for the fight has been set at 10.5 rounds, with the over at -330 and the under coming in at +270. Marquez by KO comes in at +426, while Marquez by decision will cost you -156. Juarez by KO hits the mark at +500, and Juarez by decision lands at +1100. The fight being declared a draw lands at +2200.

Although Juarez is a 3-1 dog in this fight, he does bring a lot of experience for a guy with only thirty fights. He was a decorated amateur, and even managed to win a silver medal at the Olympics. With his successes in the amateur ranks, Juarez had high expectations going into the early part of his pro career. Unfortunately, Juarez has not lived up to those expectations, and now tries to wrestle away a world title for the third time.

To finally win that elusive world title, Juarez must square off with thirty-four year old Juan Manuel Marquez.

This bout was already scheduled to take place back in September but Marquez came way with a nasty looking swollen right hand due to training. His knuckle looked severely infected and had swelled to gigantic proportions. Due to the injury, the fight was postponed and neither fighter has taken an interim bout. Because of the delay in the original bout, Marquez will enter the ring after being off eight months, while Juarez enters the ring after a five-month layoff.

Juarez knows what it’s like to battle an old vet inside those ring ropes. He clashed with former world champion Marco Antonio Barrera not once, but twice. Their first meeting was one of the better performances from Juarez. He battered and bloodied Barrera whenever the ageing vet tried to stand toe-to-toe with his younger foe. However, being the veteran that he is, Barrera quickly realized that he could not fend off the young lion inside, and boxed his way to a disputed twelve round decision win.

With the fight being so close in many people’s eyes, Barrera and Juarez agreed to get it on one last time. This time Barrera never stood and traded with Juarez and easily out boxed him over the distance. The differences between the two performances are night and day.

In the first bout Juarez let his hands go whenever Barrera was in range. In the second fight Juarez elected to follow Barrera round the ring and never threw any punches. This is the biggest problem with Rocky Juarez; he is too patient of a fighter. He is always looking for that perfect shot and the next thing he knows the bell has sounded to end the fight and he has done little but follow his opponent around the ring.

He absolutely cannot afford to follow Marquez around the ring. If he does not let his hands go at every single opportunity, he will take an absolute beating from the champion.

Marquez is a masterful boxer/puncher. If Juarez had trouble slowing down Barrera, just imagine what Marquez will do to him in a boxing match. Juarez without a doubt must make this fight a brawl.

Although Marquez has never been stopped in his three losses, recently I have noticed that he is taking more and more solid shots in his fights. He tends to become more aggressive than necessary in his fights, and that almost cost him in his last bout with Barrera. After stunning the baby-faced assassin, Marquez was severely hurt and dropped (although it was not ruled a knockdown) trying to finish off his wounded opponent.

Luckily for Marquez this action took place towards the end of the round and he was able to recover and go on to win the decision. Although the scores in the bout were extremely lopsided, many experts felt the fight was much closer than the three ringside judges indicated.

There are a few signs that could possibly point to a Juarez victory. Marquez going life and death with an ageing boxer like Barrera gives Juarez backers the hope that Marquez will be foolish enough to try it against the younger, stronger, challenger.

Another issue is if Marquez’s hand has truly healed or not. The injury was to his rear hand (power) and I can tell you this right here and right now. If his hand is not healed and he cannot use the rear hand to keep Juarez honest, he will lose this fight!

The other important factor to note is the style of Marquez. Marquez is not a “runner.” Even after being hurt and dropped by Barrera, Marquez came out for the next round standing right in front of Marco and even began trading with him again. He displayed that same warrior mentality against Manny Pacquiao in the first round of their fight when he was dropped three times. Never did he try to hold “Pac Man” or run away, he stayed right in front of him and threw his own shots.

The movement that frustrated Juarez in his rematch with Barrera may not be present when he battles Marquez tonight.

Marquez cannot afford to trade with Juarez at all. For all his shortcomings the kid can punch. While Marquez has never been stopped, he has reached the age where most fighters start to experience extreme wear and tear on their bodies.

Of course, for any Juarez victory he must let his hands go. He has once again promised to be more active, but it’s hard to teach old dogs new tricks. While Juarez would be greatly served to punch as much as possible, I am not sure if his demeanor will allow it.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Juarez {+320}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Juarez {+320}
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full Rounds (Vegas Odds) {+220}
Doody: .50 Units On Marquez By KO {+426}
D3: 1.00 Units On Marquez By KO {+426}

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

The Saturday nights HBO main event features long reigning super middleweight champion Joe Calzaghe, (43-0, 32KO’s) facing off against undefeated Mikkel Kessler, (39-0, 29KO’s) live from the Millennium Stadium, Cardiff, Wales, UK.

Calzaghe comes into the contest as the very slight favorite in the bout at -150. Kessler gets the underdog cash at +130. The O/U for the fight has been set at 10.5 rounds, with the over at -200 and the under coming in at +170. Calzaghe by KO comes in at +365, while Calzaghe by decision will get you +165. Kessler by KO hits the mark at +340, and Kessler by decision lands at +367. The fight being declared a draw lands at +2100.

Calzaghe enters his bout against Kessler only two fights removed from his total destruction over media hyped Jeff “Left Hook” Lacy. Calzaghe pasted Lacy with rapid-fire combinations all night long, even dropping his heavily muscled challenger in the 12th round.

Lacy is just another name added to the growing list of Calzaghe victims. Since the Lacy fight, he has recently added Sakio Bika and Peter Manfredo Jr. to the list. Although Calzaghe stopped Manfredo in only three rounds, the fight had a bit of controversy because many people feel referee Tony O’Connell stopped it very prematurely.

Kessler has also been busy accumulating victims on his impressive resume, in recent years adding Manny Siaca, Anthony Mudine, Eric Lucas, Markus Beyer, and Librado Andrade.

Now the two undefeated fighters square off for the WBA, WBC, and WBO super middleweight titles.

While Kessler has solid overall skills, I tend to lean towards him in the power department for this fight. His punches are much tighter and he uses his proper technique to gain as much leverage as possible on each shot he throws.

Calzaghe’s punches are anything but orthodox. He tends to throw his punches in very fast combinations, but they have a bit of a “slapping” motion to them. When watching him fight you would be hard pressed to figure out how he could have possibly scored thirty-two knockouts. I can only imagine what kind of knockout percentage he would have if he threw “correct” shots like Kessler.

Even though Kessler is the better technician, I don’t think he will have a very easy time just trying to outbox Calzaghe over the twelve round distance. Calzaghe brings a lot of pressure and a tremendous amount of speed to this fight.

His speed is without question one of his biggest assets and I fully expect him to utilize it in the center of the ring, as well as when they reach the ropes. For Kessler to stay on the outside and box Joe all night he would need to be able to either time him as he comes forward, or outwork him over the distance.

The biggest problem I see with Kessler trying to time Joe is the fact that Calzaghe does not just fire one shot at a time. If Kessler should be able to time him, he would need to make sure that shot had an incredible amount of power on it to stop Joe in his tracks. If he just timed him with a decent punch, Calzaghe would walk through the punch and fire off a series of combinations that would force Kessler back.

For Kessler to outwork Calzaghe on the outside seems like a very unlikely scenario. From everything I can tell about Kessler he will not be able to match Calzaghe’s speed or punch output. Those two deficiencies basically throw out any chance of Kessler out boxing Joe Calzaghe.

So if Kessler cannot outwork Calzaghe, I feel his best bet is to use his better technique and try to time Joe as he walks in with his wide, looping shots. Kessler throws the much straighter punches, and as we all know those straight punches can do a ton of damage on a fighter who throws wide.

Another benefit of Kessler using the aggression of Calzaghe against him is the lack of defense Joe often display’s. Many times throughout his bouts Calzaghe will drop his hands by his waist, inviting his opponents to try and land on his chin. Should he try this against Kessler, he may find himself looking up at the lights.

Although Kessler is regarded as the more powerful hitter in the match, I was surprised at just how easy he is to back straight up. I think if he allows Joe to march forward, instantly backing up, it could become a major problem for him. Now, if he punch as he retreats that could cause Calzaghe a whole host of problems.

I feel if Kessler is disciplined enough, he has the overall tools to counter punch Joe and time him as he advances forward. If he is successful in countering Calzaghe, then chances are his powerful, precision punches find their mark and end Calzaghe’s reign of terror.

However, it is very hard to go against Calzaghe. He has proven himself in many title bouts, and the location of the fight should certainly benefit him.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Kessler By KO {+340} & 3.00 Units On Calzaghe By Dec {+165}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Calzaghe By Dec {+165}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Won’t Go 12 Full Rounds (Vegas Odds) {+140}
Doody: 2.00 Units On Calzaghe By Dec {+165}
D3: 1.00 Units On Calzaghe By Dec {+165}

Showtime Predictions
By Boxeo

The Friday night Showtime main event features former heavyweight title challenger Calvin Brock, (31-1, 23KO’s) facing off against undefeated Eddie Chambers, (29-0, 16KO’s) live from the Emeralds Queen Casino, Tacoma, Washington.

Chambers comes into the contest as the very slight favorite in the bout at -145. Brock gets the underdog cash at +125. The O/U for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over at a whopping -350 and the under coming in at +290. Chambers by KO comes in at +329, while Chambers by decision will get you +161. Brock by KO hits the mark at +484, and Brock by decision lands at +269. As you can see from the posted odds, this bout is expected to go the full distance.

Brock enters his bout against Chambers only two fights removed from a brutal seventh round knockout loss to Wladimir Klitschko. Although Brock was essentially knocked out with a single shot from Klitschko, he did fight fairly well in the early parts of that bout. Since the loss to Klitschko, he has come back to win two straight bouts against sub par opposition.

There is little question that Brock will have the experience edge in this fight. Even though Chambers is 29-0, Brock has faced the better fighters on his climb up the heavyweight rankings. He has fought on the big stage before, and will know what to expect come fight night.

This experience aspect alone could be huge for Brock since the winner of this match will face Alexander Povetkin in a final eliminator for a shot of current IBF champion Wladimir Klitschko.

While Brock may have the edge in experience, Chambers might boast the overall better boxing skills. He has very quick hands for a heavyweight and has a very solid defense. He is often compared to the smaller heavyweights like Chris Byrd, or James Toney.

In reality, these fighters seem to match-up very evenly. For all of his accolades, Brock has always been looked upon as “missing” something. He does not appear to have the killer instinct that a heavyweight champion is expected to display.

I think this is a case where Brock will need to impose his will on Chambers and make him fight his type of fight. Brock carries the bigger guns to the fight and he would be best served to force Chambers into a brawl in the hopes of connecting something powerful that may end the night.

From the looks of the weigh-in it appears Brock is only looking for a stoppage. He enters his bout with Chambers at 241 pounds, his highest career weight. For his part Chambers came in at 213.5, right around his usual weight.

If Brock is unable to land hard, clean shots on Chambers, forcing him to cover-up and become overly defensive, I fear that the smaller, quicker, boxer may easily walk out of Washington with the decision win.

Boxeo: 2.00 Units On Chambers By Dec {+161}
Krakrabbit: 1.00 Units On Chambers By Dec {+161}
Grass Hopper: 1.00 Units On Chambers By Dec {+161}
Doody: 1.45 Units On Chambers {-145}
D3: .50 Units Under 9.5 Rounds {+290}

Telefutura Predictions
By Boxeo

The Friday night Telefutura main event features former champion Kassim Ouma, (25-3-1, 15KO’s) facing off against the hard-hitting Saul Roman, (27-4, 24KO’s) live from the Morongo Casino Resort & Spa, Cabazon, California.

Ouma comes into the contest as a devastating favorite at -6000. Roman gets the underdog cash at +2750. The O/U for the fight has been set at 6.5 rounds, with the over at +160 and the under coming in at -210. As you can see from the posted odds, this bout is not expected to be competitive in an area.

Ouma was slated to face former contender star Sergio Mora on the original Marquez vs. Juarez fight date back in September, but when that fight was postponed, all undercard action went with it.

Because of the postponement of his bout with Mora, Ouma has not fought since his losing effort against former middleweight champion Jermain Taylor ten months ago. Not only has Ouma been out of the ring, but he has also faced some legal issues that forced him to spend eight hours in the Palm Beach County Jail for failing to appear at a hearing for driving on a suspended license. Now Ouma finally heads back into action against the limited, but powerful Saul Roman.

As is usually the case with unknown fighters sporting impressive records, Roman has fought most of his competition outside the United States. His impressive 24 stoppages in 27 wins have come against very limited opposition. His four losses (all by stoppage) have come at the hands of Jesus Soto Karass, Marco Antonio Rubio, Sergio Martinez, and Daniel Stanisavljevic.

Karass, Rubio and Martinez were all a step up in class from the horrendous pugs he had been facing, but Stanisavljevic was 7-12-2 when they faced off and Roman didn’t make it past four rounds. If Roman thought the above-mentioned fighters were a step up in class, he is in a world of trouble when he faces Ouma.

The biggest knock going agsint Ouma in this fight has to be the ten-month layoff. Just a few weeks ago his on-again off-again opponent Sergio Mora found out how a long layoff can affect your skills inside the ring, battling little known Elvin Ayala to a disputed draw. If I recall correctly, Mora opened as a huge –900 favorite in that contest and almost walked out of the ring with a loss under his belt.

Ouma has a very distinct flaw that will always leave him open to being beaten…his total lack of defense! He has been floored before and suffered one of his losses by stoppage. Whenever you face fighters that have tremendous power, limited skills or not, you must be careful of being caught. I don’t feel Roman is anywhere near the level of Ouma and obviously at –6000, the oddsmakers feel pretty safe that Ouma will come out of the ring with the win.

With that said, I think the ten month layoff and the real punching power of Roman might give him a slim punchers chance to lay Ouma out. There is zero chance Roman out-skills Ouma, but if you are backing Roman you hope for a single haymaker to hit Ouma on the chin before the former champ starts to take control of the fight.

If you feel Roman has no chance in the fight then you only need to look at the over/under prop in this contest. All of Roman’s four stoppages have come inside four rounds or less. So the question for you then becomes… can Ouma take Roman out before four?

Although Ouma is not a devastating puncher, he does tend to wear opponents down with his non-stop aggressive attack. He throws punches in bunches, and that type of work rate is very hard for most opponents to keep up with.

I think if Ouma wins, it might be after the 6.5 rounds. The only reason I am not picking Ouma early is because of the long layoff and the lack of one-punch power. As Mora showed in his last fight, sometimes long layoffs can have negative consequences when you finally return to the ring.

I don’t think much of Roman, but he does have tremendous punching power and I will drop a little coin on him at +2750 just in case!

Boxeo Bets: 1.00 Units On Over 6.5 Rounds {+160} & .40 Units On Roman {+2750}
Krakrabbit: .10 Units On Roman {+2750}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: N/P
D3: .50 Units On Over 6.5 Rounds {+160}

Germany Predictions
By Boxeo

Although U.S. fight fans will not be treated to the heavyweight showdown between former world champion Chris Byrd, (40-3-1, 21KOs) and rising prospect Alexander Povetkin, (13-0, 10KOs), I figured I would write down a few notes about this heavyweight clash that will take place in Erfurt, Thuringen, Germany.

Povetkin opened as a pretty hefty favorite in the bout at –600. Byrd supporters can grab the underdog money at +450. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -150 and the under at +130.

Even though Povetkin was a very accomplished amateur fighter, and currently possesses an undefeated professional record, I believe the opening line on the fight was set in large part because of the perceived decline that Chris Byrd has been showing over his last few bouts.

Byrd has not really impressed his fans inside the ring in close to five long years. In reality, his last solid performance came against Evander Holyfield way back in 2002. Since the Holyfield fight Byrd is 4-1-1, but his wins over Fres Oquendo, Jameel McCline, and DaVarryl Williamson were all closely contested bouts. Throw in his hotly disputed draw with Andrew Golota, and the severe beating at the hands of Wladimir Klitschko, and you have your opening line.

Although Byrd has indeed slowed down a bit inside the ring, until the Klitschko fight he was still getting the all important “W” at the end of his bouts. As I am sure you know, that all changed when he faced off with Wladimir a year and a half ago. Klitschko did not just beat Byrd; he gave him a vicious beating, finally halting the brave former champion in seven rounds.

Since that fight with Klitschko, Byrd has fought only one time against forty-year-old Paul Marinaccio, scoring a seventh round stoppage victory.

Povetkin has been moved rather quickly in his pro career, having already beaten veteran fighters Willie Chapman, Friday Ahunanya, Ed Mahone, Imamu Mayfield, David Bostice and most recently Larry Donald.

While Povetkin has been successful with the gatekeepers of the division, on October 27th, he will certainly be facing the toughest test of his young career.

In spite of this being only his fourteenth fight, Povetkin does bring solid hand speed and a tremendous work rate to the table. I feel these two things can cause Byrd some major difficulties in the bout.

Now you may be asking yourself why I did not include the power factor into the equation? It is no secret that most fighters Byrd faces will have a size and power advantage over him, and although Povetkin has ten stoppages in his thirteen wins, I do not feel his power is on the level of a Klitschko or Ike Ibeabuchi (both of whom stopped Byrd.)

If Byrd were just a bit less shopworn I would give him an excellent chance to upset Povetkin. He is a quick southpaw that has a solid chin and an incredible heart. The problem for Byrd is he has been getting hit more and more as his reflexes begin to slow. When you are a 210-pound heavyweight you simply cannot take a consistent pounding from guys that weigh 250+ and expect to come out the victor.

Luckily for Byrd, Povetkin is not one of those 250-pound heavyweight giants. The lack of real size from Povetkin should allow Byrd to have some moments in the fight. I am not quite certain how much Byrd has left after his beating from Klitschko, but I expected the southpaw veteran to find a way to hear the final bell to end the fight.

Boxeo: 1.50 Units On Over 11.5 Rounds {-150}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units Under 11.5 Rounds {+130}
Grass Hopper: 1.50 Units On Over 11.5 Rounds {-150}
Doody: 1.50 Units On Over 11.5 Rounds {-150}
D3: .50 Units Under 11.5 Rounds {+130}

Telefutura Predictions
By Boxeo

The Friday night Telefutura main event features former 115-pound champion Martin Castillo, (32-2, 17KO’s) facing off against the hard-hitting Jonathan Perez, (13-2, 10KO’s) live from the Cicero Stadium in Cicero, Illinois.

Castillo comes into the contest as an overwhelming favorite at -1250. Perez gets the underdog cash at +800. The O/U for the fight has been set at 8.5 rounds, with the over at +100 and the under coming in at -120. As you can see from the posted odds, this bout is not expected to be competitive in an area.

While Perez is indeed a heavy-handed fighter, he has faced atrocious competition in his limited 15-bout career. His record is littered with limited opponents, and the few times he did take a small step up in class (Eric Ortiz, Alejandro Hernandez) he failed miserably.

Now he faces Martin Castillo, a former 115-pound champion that has only tasted defeat twice in his career. It is quite obvious that Castillo has a huge edge in experience over Perez, but Castillo looked a bit worn in his last fight with Oscar Andrade four moths ago.

In his bout with Andrade, his timing and crisp punching did not appear to be what it once was. Many Castillo supporters point to the fact that the Andrade bout was only his second fight after a ten-month layoff due to plastic surgery being performed on his frequently cut eyebrow area.

Regardless if Castillo is slipping or if the layoff was at fault for his less then stellar performance against Andrade, he should still have enough left in the tank to get by the limited Perez.

Since the odds are out of this world, you really only have the opportunity to play the over/under in this fight. There is no question that Perez can bang; however, Castillo has only been stopped once out of his two losses, and that was due to a cut.

Although Perez also has been stopped once out of his two losses, with 17 stoppages in 32 bouts, you can see Castillo does not bring explosive, mind-numbing power to the table.

This is a bout where you can easily make a case for both the over and the under in this fight. The over supporters will point to the lack of real punching power from Castillo, and the fact that Perez has not faced off with the best competition to adequately gauge his true punching power.

The under supporters will point to the impressive knockout percentage of Perez and tendency of Castillo to get cut. Add in the huge gap in talent between the two fighters, and a case can be made for the under.

Boxeo Bets: .50 Units On Over 8.5 Rounds {+100}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: .50 Units On Over 8.5 Rounds {+100}
D3: .50 Units On Over 8.5 Rounds {+100}

Germany Predictions
By Boxeo

Although U.S. fight fans will not be treated to the heavyweight rematch between Oliver McCall, (51-8, 36KOs) and Juan Carlos Gomez, (42-1, 35KOs), I figured I would write down a few notes about this heavyweight showdown that will take place in the Estrel Convention Center, Neukoelln, Berlin, Germany.

Gomez opened as a pretty hefty favorite in the bout at –430. McCall supporters can grab the underdog money at +345. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at -270 and the under at +230. Gomez by KO comes in at +550, while Gomez by decision will cost you -178. McCall by KO hits the mark at +596, and McCall by decision lands at +950.

If you take a close look at the above numbers it is not hard to see that the oddsmakers like Gomez by decision. When you look at an over/under 11.5 rounds, with the over coming in at almost –300, it becomes crystal clear they feel there is little chance of Gomez stopping the iron chinned McCall.

Gomez and McCall are no strangers inside the ring, having squared off almost two years to the date in a ten round affair in Germany. Although Gomez came away with a pretty lopsided unanimous decision win (98-92 twice and 96-94) it was not such a walk in the park, as the lopsided scoring would suggest. Gomez was cut above and below his left eye, and had a good bit of swelling to contend with too. Gomez faded significantly in the later part of the fight, and resorted to pity-pat shots and holding to get him through to the final bell.

The lopsided unanimous decision win for Gomez would not last long, as a post fight drug tested revealed Gomez to have cocaine in his system, and the decision win was later reversed to a no contest. The failed drug test not only cost him the win, but the German Federation also suspended him for a year. Gomez insisted that he never participated in the drug, and maintains his innocence to this day.

Regardless of the outcome of the drug test, Gomez was effective in the fight. His best weapon was his southpaw jab that forced McCall to reset every time he attempted to come in. Gomez also used a lot of foot movement, forcing his older foe to follow him around the ring round after round. Whenever McCall did get inside, Gomez looked to hold and wait for the referee to step in. In my opinion, Gomez and his team could not have created a better game plan.

So the question is, can Gomez once again box his way to a decision win? Well, on paper this would seem like a very easy fight for Gomez. He already beat McCall once, and now is facing an “Atomic Bull” that is forty-two years old. He doesn’t have to worry about McCall switching anything up; he knows McCall will come right out after him, looking to knock him out. He possesses the quicker hands and has the overall better boxing skills.

However, fights are not fought on paper and there are a few things that lead me to believe McCall has a decent shot in this fight. I really like the fact that McCall has been pretty active at this stage of his career. His rematch with Gomez will be his seventh fight since the no-contest almost two years ago. In that same time frame Gomez has only fought three times (due in large part to the year suspension.)

As nice as it is that McCall has been active, there is no question in my mind one of his biggest assets in this fight is the twelve round distance. He had Gomez in uncomfortable territory in only ten rounds in their original meeting, now he has even more time to drop the bomb on Gomez.

Another thing that really disturbs me is the fact that Gomez came into this bout at 228 pounds. He faded in their first fight and came into that contest weighing only 222 pounds. He has now put himself in a position where he is expected to go a longer distance, at a heavier weight.

For his part, McCall is three pounds lighter then their first meeting, hitting the scales at 235. Although he is only three pounds lighter, his overall appearance looks better than when they first met.

This is certainly a case where the younger, faster, better skilled boxer should be favored in the fight. However, I feel McCall is a very live underdog in the bout and he only needs one solid shot to change the course of the contest.

It is very hard to envision McCall getting the decision in Germany, but the odds on a McCall decision win are so huge that I can cover my McCall knockout prop with very little out of pocket money.

Boxeo Bets: 2.00 Units On McCall By KO {+596} & .75 Units On McCall By Decision. {+950}
Krakrabbit: N/P
Grass Hopper: 2.00 Units On McCall (+345}
Doody: 1.78 Units On Gomez By Decision {-178}
D3: .50 Units On McCall Decision {+950} & .50 Units On McCall By KO {+596}

ESPN Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight ESPN “Contender” series showcases former Contender stars Alfonso Gomez, (17-3-2, 8KO’s) squaring off against veteran Ben Tackie, (29-7-1, 17KO’s), while Sergio “The Latin Snake” Mora, (19-0, 4KO’s) tackles Elvin Ayala (18-2, 8KO’s); live from the Home Depot Center in Carson, CA.

Both Gomez and Mora are in ten round tune-up bouts. As such, both are clear favorites to win tonight, with Gomez coming in at –450 and Mora an even larger favorite at –900. You can grab the dog money at +325 on Tackie and +600 on Ayala.

The over in both fights were posted very late, and offer little reward for the risk. The over in the Gomez fight is listed at 9.5 rounds and comes in at a whopping –500 with the under getting the plus money at +400.

One would venture to guess that if the Gomez o/u line is so high the Mora fight should be even higher, but for some odd reason the o/u in the Mora fight is lower then the Gomez fight? They have set the total rounds in the Mora fight at 9.5 rounds, but this time the over comes in at only –260, while the under comes in at +220.

Since these are showcase bouts for both favorites, I will condense the two bouts into one short preview.

As we all know, Sergio Mora is a slick boxer with a style that could certainly cure insomnia. His hit and don’t be hit style, combined with zero punching power, makes for a very boring night of action whenever he is inside the ring. Throw in an opponent like Ayala that has fought limited opposition, and also does not possess any firepower, and I see little chance for the dog to pull off the upset in this one.

We also have Alfonso Gomez taking on Ben Tackie in a bout that should be more competitive then the Mora vs. Ayala fight. Although Gomez has little punching power, he has an aggressive in your face style, and possessed enough bang for his buck to get former world champion Arturo Gatti out of there before the final bell.

At one point and time Tackie was considered a top tier guy that was always dangerous until the final bell. He may still be dangerous inside the ring, but his recent performances and level of competition have suggested that he is on a downward spiral.

While Gomez does have three losses to his name, he has never been stopped and is heading into his bout with Tackie with three straight TKO wins. I think a younger, less shopworn Ben Tackie might have had a real opportunity to beat Gomez, with his straight ahead style.

However, the years of ring wars have slowed Tackie a bit and it also does not help his cause that this bout is scheduled for only ten rounds. Tackie easily can give away the early rounds of a bout, and in a ten round contest that could be the difference between a win and a loss on the cards.

If a severely degraded Arturo Gatti can take punishment from Gomez for seven rounds before finally calling it a career, I feel Tackie will be able to absorb everything Gomez has all night long.

Gomez is going to have to work for it, but I see him outlasting Tackie and taking the win via decision.

The Fight Junkie team does not see any real value in any of the posted lines, so we will N/P (no play) tonight’s card.

Boxeo Bets: N/P
KrackRabbit: N/P
Doody: N/P
Grass Hopper: N/P
D3: N/P

HBO Predictions
By Boxeo

Tonight we are treated to a world championship unification bout in the lightweight division between two Diaz champions, Juan “Baby Bull Diaz, (32-0. 16KO’s), and Julio “The Kidd” Diaz, (34-3, 25KO’s), Live from the Sears Centre, in Hoffman Estates, Illinois

The younger, “Baby Bull” opened as the clear favorite in the fight and currently rests at –445. “Kidd” supporters can grab the underdog money at +355. The O/U on the bout is set at 11.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +178 and the over at minus -210. Juan Diaz by KO comes in at +213, while Diaz by decision will reward you with +100. Julio Diaz by KO hits the mark at +1300, and Diaz by decision lands at +515.

Let me first start off by saying that I think Julio Diaz’s prop numbers are really off. I feel they should have been reversed, with Diaz by KO being +515 and by decision at +1300. The reason I feel the line is backwards is because Julio Diaz is the much harder puncher of the two, and Juan Diaz is the much more active fighter of the two.

Both fighters enter the ring as champions, but Juan Diaz, is undefeated and considered by most experts as the better of the two fighters. Julio Diaz has been around for what seems like ages, but still remains only twenty-seven years old.

Juan Diaz is an in your face, pressure type of fighter. It is easiest to describe Juan as a bigger Wayne McCullough, with more power. He will come right out after Julio and look to make it a slugfest from the start. Although Juan may have more power then McCullough, for his weight class he is not considered a big puncher. He simply overwhelms his opponents with non-stop punching from start to finish.

Julio Diaz is the complete opposite of Juan. He does not throw a large volume of punches per round, but packs a much bigger punch. He can stand and bang, or get on his wheels and move around the ring.

Julio Diaz has more options in the fight than Juan. He can stand and trade with the “Baby Bull”, or try and lure him in to a thunderous counter shot that ends the night. I think at some point in the fight you will get to see Julio in both these roles. There is little doubt in my mind that at some point in the fight Juan will force Julio Diaz to stand and trade. The “Baby Bull” just applies too much pressure and throws to many shots for an adequate, but not spectacular boxer like Diaz to keep him off all night.

However, that does not mean that Julio should abandon his boxing game plan. While I don’t think he can outbox Juan and win a decision on the cards, I do think he can walk Juan into a powerful counter shot that may have the “Baby Bull” looking up at the lights. It is this reason, and this reason alone, that Julio must stick to spots where he tries to counter Juan as he bullies forward.

With that said, I feel the fight will probably be decided in the trenches. Juan applies so much pressure that his opponents are forced to try and match him punch for punch or risk being pummeled along the ring ropes. He is a non-stop punching machine, and even though he has very little one-punch knockout power, he can score stoppages by battering and tiring out his opponents.

If Julio allows Juan to get into his pressure-fighting mode, this is where the conditioning of Julio will come into play. Very few fighters can match Juan in the work rate department, and as the rounds go by they get deeper and deeper into a scoring deficiency. The combination of absorbing a million shots, and knowing you are losing badly on the scorecards tends to quickly wear a fighter down physically and mentality.

Two of the three losses of Julio Diaz have come inside of the distance. He suffered a one round blowout at the hands of Juan Valenzuela, and was beaten up and broken down by former champion Jose Luis Castillo in ten rounds.

While I certainly would be shocked to see Juan lay Julio out with a single shot, I do think his non-stop aggression can force Julio to fight at a faster pace then he is accustom to. Fatigue can be just as damaging as a powerful punch, and feel the “Baby Bull” can get a fatigue type stoppage with his all-out assault.

However, I won’t discount the power of Julio, and will cover the Julio Diaz by KO prop… just in case!

Boxeo Bets: 3.00 Units On Juan Diaz By KO {+213} & 1.00 Units On Julio Diaz By KO {+1300}
Krakrabbit: .50 Units On Juan Diaz By Decision {+100}
Grass Hopper: 5.00 Units On Under 11.5 Rounds (+178}
Doody: 1.00 On Juan Diaz By Decision {+100}
D3: 3.00 Units On Juan Diaz By KO {+213} & 1.00 Units On Julio Diaz By KO {+1300}

PPV Predictions
By Boxeo

Saturday, four-time world heavyweight champion Evander Holyfield, (42-8-2, 27KO’s) will seek to become an unprecedented five-time world heavyweight champion in Moscow, Russia, when he challenges current WBO world heavyweight champion Sultan Ibragimov, (21-0-1, 17KO’s) in a 12 round bout that will be broadcast in the U.S. on Pay-Per-View. Since the event is being broadcast live from Russia, it will have a U.S. starting time of 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT.

The champion Ibragimov opened as the clear favorite in the fight, and currently rests at –470. Holyfield supporters can grab the underdog money at +375. The O/U on the bout is set at 10.5 rounds, with the under coming in at +100 and the over at minus -120. Ibragimov by KO comes in at +125, while the champion by decision will reward you with +165. Holyfield by KO hits the mark at +590, and Holyfield by decision lands at +1115.

Its quite clear from the lines the oddmakers have set, they feel the best chance for Holyfield to win this fight would be by knockout. I can certainly agree with this assessment, as Ibragimov is the much younger, quicker, fighter and throws a higher volume of punches per round.

Things get a bit trickier if you are backing Ibragimov, because we truly don’t know how much Holyfield has left in the tank. While “Iggy” has an impressive knockout percentage, he has shown in the past that he can also throw a large amount of punches and use lateral movement to offset any potential strength his opponents might have.

I predict that Sultan will use this type of counter punching style when he faces Holyfield on Saturday. The reason I expect the champion to use this type of tactic is because it will cause Holyfield the most trouble in the fight.

At Holyfield’s advanced age (almost 45) he cannot fire off punches like he could when he was younger. The multiple wars and wear and tear on his body have slowed him down enough that he has become more of an aggressive, stalking, type fighter. In his prime he was a masterful counter puncher, but you need solid speed and timing to counter punch an opponent, and Holyfield does not possess those attributes anymore.

Holyfield comes into his title shot against Ibragimov riding a four-fight win streak. On the surface Holyfield has looked much sharper and more active in his last four fights then in recent memory, but in reality I think his current level of opposition have allowed him to do things he was not able to do against the likes of Larry Donald, James Toney, and Chris Byrd (0-3 in that stretch.)

I also do not believe that his current crop of victims have prepared him for the movement and speed that Ibragimov brings to the ring. Fighters like Jeremy Bates, Lou Savarese, and Vinney Maddalone are a far cry stylistically from Ibragimov.

Out of the last four opponents he has faced, only one of them offered any type of lateral movement… Fres Oquendo. Ironically, that was Holyfield’s most difficult fight out of the four, and many “expert