UFC 140 Predictions
By Krakrabbit
Saturday night on UFC 140, MMA fans will be treated to a light heavyweight title fight when Jon “Bones” Jones, (14-1, 8KO’s, 4 Submissions) battles former champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida, (17-2, 6KO’s, 2 Submissions) from the Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Jones opened the contest as the betting favorite over his opponent and his line has only gone up since the lines opened with Jones resting at around -425 and Machida sitting at +335.
The Will Go/Won’t Go on the bout is set at 5 rounds, with the Will Go coming in at +250, and the Won’t Go at -325. Jones ITD (Inside The Distance) now sits at -204, while Jones by decision will reward you with +423. Machida ITD hits the mark at +690, and Machida by decision lands at a high +725. The odds of the bout being declared a draw stand at +8500.
Jon “Bones” Jones continued his rise to stardom three months ago at UFC 135 in what was Jones’ first successful title defense after knocking out Mauricio Rua earlier in the year. Jones dominated his most recent outing, against Quinton Jackson, for three full rounds before submitting “Rampage” early in the fourth round.
Jon was barely even touched in that fight, outstriking Jackson with his reach and kicking ability in addition to scoring a few takedowns over the course of the fight. “Rampage” was not worn down as easily as Jones’ other opponents had been, but succumbed to a fight ending Rear Naked Choke after sixteen minutes of action.
The one sided victory was just another that was added to Jones’ increasingly more impressive resume that is beginning to display the names of well-known fighters who have tasted defeat at the hands of “Bones”.
Already 8-1 in the UFC, with his only “loss” being by controversial disqualification, Jones has made a shockingly rapid rise through the UFC’s light heavyweight division and has bested some excellent fighters.
Stephen Bonnar, Mauricio Rua, Brandon Vera, Ryan Bader, Mauricio Rua and of course Jackson have all been soundly beaten by Jones, with every fighter listed having been knocked out or submitted (aside from Bonnar).
“Bones”, who is becoming a huge name in the MMA community, is an outstanding talent who continues to improve every time he steps into the cage. While that can be said about many fighters, Jones’ improvements and skillset are expanding at a rapid rate and Jon has already established himself amongst the best fighters in the world!
In spite of having less than four years of experience as a professional, Jones is a very well rounded fighter who also defies the odds in other ways. But first, I feel the need to mention that Jon Jones is a solid and truly dynamic striker who uses his record-setting reach and tall, 6’4 frame as much as possible.
Famous strikers such as Jackson and Rua were essentially unable to lay a glove on Jones, as Jon has quickly become very proficient at keeping his range and fighting at distance. Technically, Jon is surprisingly solid with his striking and combined with his shockingly effective Muay Thai skills, Jones has made name for himself as a striking phenom.
Adding to that, despite not having any particularly impressive wrestling credentials, Jones is one of the best wrestlers in the division!
Jon has a powerful double leg takedown, but it is not uncommon to see him drop down and simply grab hold of his opponent leg to attempt a single leg takedown. Both of those takedown attempts are surprisingly effective and Jones has displayed his wrestling ability against adept wrestlers such as Bader and Jackson.
In addition, “Bones” appears to be training hard to learn Greco-Roman wrestling and perhaps Judo, as he has showcased a number of impressive throws in his past fights. Jones is not only a powerful fighter within the clinch, but he possesses tight, fairly technical (and flashy) throws that he often uses to his advantage.
As if that was not enough, Jones is also devastating with ground and pound and has carved a reputation for himself as being as the master of elbow strikes. Jon uses practically anything he can to land cleanly on his opponent from top position, and you will never see Jones simply laying on top of his opposition while time ticks down.
Despite calling himself a white belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (which he very well may be), Jones has a smothering top control that few fighters have been able to escape from. His size plays a large role in his dominance from top control, but you cannot argue with the results as Jones has been able to effortlessly pass the guards of all his opponents (aside from Rua, a longtime Black Belt in BJJ).
Not only does he use his grappling prowess to control and strike his opponent, Jones has also been showing off some solid submission ability recently. Having submitted Ryan Bader and Quinton Jackson with what seemed to be relative ease, Jones has shown the capacity to attempt submissions if they present themselves, which is nice to see.
Now, while Jones has been immensely popular there are still some unanswered questions lingering about him. For one, I have a little doubt as to just how much of a “cardio beast” he truly is. I have seen him huffing and puffing on more than one occasion, but fortunately for him typically by the time he starts to show signs of fatigue his opponent is far more worn out then he is.
Nobody knows how well Jones will fight off his back either. He has shown startlingly powerful top control in addition possessing enough power to wear out and stop nearly anybody, but Jones has not been forced to fight off his back yet in the UFC. While I feel Jones would probably be capable of doing something off his back, I question how he would do if he was unable to stop the takedowns of his foe.
Former champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida is also coming into this fight off a win, having scored one of the best knockouts of the year over Randy Couture.
In a memorable KO that resembled the “Karate Kid”, Machida stopped Couture cold with what looked to be a crane kick to the face! In other words, Machida leapt into the air and landed a vicious front kick to the chin of Couture.
Machida too was at a point in his career where he appeared unstoppable, around the time he rattled off consecutive victories over Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans. But after his title winning effort against Evans, he began to seriously struggle.
Winning a heavily debated decision over Mauricio Rua in his first title defense, Machida went on to be KO’d by Rua and lose a split decision to Quinton Jackson. Lyoto’s win over Couture was the first win he’d had in over a year and half, and his first of 2011.
Despite falling on some tough times though, Machida has shown the ability to compete at a high level time and time again. He put up strong efforts against Rua and Jackson, and his resume speaks for itself as he has only lost two fights over the course of his career.
“The Dragon”, who prides himself on utilizing Karate as his main style, is primarily a striker whose style is well figured out by now. Once an “enigma”, Machida’s movements and attacks are not so surprisingly at this point in his career.
Lyoto possesses very quick hand speed that he often uses to his advantage, in addition to another weapon that he uses relentlessly: his foot speed! Machida is rarely caught sitting around, and is usually always moving in to attack or out to avoid counter punches.
Once a baffling style that revolved around movement, Machida’s flaws have been exposed in his defeats. Lyoto’s offense consists nearly entirely of running in a straight line while throwing shots down the pipe at his opponent. He does not use angles often, and typically prefers to simply rush in with punches and hope that his opposition retreats.
Speaking of retreat, when Machida is pressured he moves back in a straight line as well. Rarely using lateral movement, Mauricio Rua gave Machida all he could handle and then some by pressing forward throwing punches, or otherwise using kicks to keep Machida from rushing in with his own punches.
“The Dragon” is not a bad fighter at all and he has achieved a lot of success in his career, but his movements are quite predictable. Quinton Jackson beat him on the judges’ scorecards simply by moving forward and keeping Machida tentative, nothing more (Jackson’s accuracy was very low in that fight and won essentially off slightly higher punch output).
However, while Machida is not the striking dynamo he once was, Lyoto does have other attributes to fall back on. For one, the Karate fighter is also a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and showed decent grappling skills in the past.
Not only that, but Machida has some sneaky takedowns at his disposal from within the clinch where he often uses the bodylock or occasionally a trip to throw his opponent to the mat. Machida’s top control leaves a lot to be desired and neither his ground and pound nor submission skills are outstanding, but he has been training in Jiu-Jitsu for a long time and is clearly no slouch on the ground.
I feel this is an interesting matchup that many are claiming Machida has a fantastic shot to win in, but I for one believe Machida will have a very difficult time ahead of him in this contest.
Jon Jones has shown time and time again the ability to take down virtually anyone he wants, nearly at will. And if that was not enough, “Bones” has become a very threatening striker while using his massive frame.
I am not certain what Machida will be attempting in this fight, but I would be surprised to see him trying to run in and out all night on the feet. I suspect Lyoto will be looking to test Jones’ takedown defense and attempt to take Jones to the ground.
Personally, I expect those attempts to fail. Lyoto Machida may have underestimated skills within the clinch (possibly stemming from his Sumo training), but Jones will have a significant size and strength advantage.
As far as the striking goes, I think Jones has a slight advantage there as well. He is become increasingly adept at kicking, something that seriously troubles Machida and “Bones” will also have a sizeable 10.5 inch reach advantage coming into this fight.
I don’t think Machida will be able to dodge in and out at will like he does against his slower opposition. Either Jones will keep him at bay with probing kicks and a long jab, or allow Machida to rush in leaving him open to a takedown attempt.
Lyoto may very well be an somewhat accomplished fighter, but I do not think he is any better of a striker then Quinton Jackson or Mauricio Rua are, nor do I feel his particular style poses a real threat to Jon Jones.
I would be surprised to see Machida win even a round in this fight to be honest and I expect Jones to outstrike “The Dragon” and take him down whenever he so chooses.
Depending on the tempo of the fight, Machida may be able to make it the five round distance as I feel he should be able to avoid getting blasted out on the feet. But should Jones decide to take this fight to the mat, I suspect Machida will begin to take a lopsided beating just as all of Jon’s other opponents have.
Call me crazy, I also think Jones can submit Lyoto Machida. When eating powerful strikes on the ground, Jones’ opponents tend to leave themselves vulnerable to submissions and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jones transition smoothly from ground and pound to a submission attempt from top position at some point in this fight.
No one can say for certain how long the Jon Jones destruction train will continue to roll over opponents, but for the time being I expect Jones to make his second successful title defense on Saturday night with relative ease.
Krakrabbit: 17.50 Units On Jones {-350}
Boxeo: 35.00 Units On Jones {-350}
Grass Hopper: N/P
Doody: 17.50 Units On Jones {-350}
D3: 17.50 Units On Jones {-350}